04/15/2015 10:55AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's Hot, Who's Not for April 15

Tom Keyser
Mr. Z earned enough points for his third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby to get into the Kentucky Derby field.


Perhaps this category should be renamed “Who’s Lukewarm” this week, as the only newcomer to the Derby Watch top 20 is rated a 50-1 shot on the Kentucky Derby future line of Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. That horse is Mr. Z, who earned a spot in the Derby field by virtue of his distant third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby. The top 20 becomes entirely points driven at this stage of the game; there’s no use listing horses who might not get into the starting gate. American Pharoah solidified his position as the Derby favorite with his win in the Arkansas Derby. He is now 7-2 on Watchmaker’s line after being 9-2 last week. Similarly, Dortmund, the second choice, was lowered to 4-1 from last week’s 5-1.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Kentucky Derby: When it's time for a Baffert star to work, Garcia punches in


Prospect Park was removed from Derby consideration late last week, so he was the lone defection from the top 20. In order to lower the prices on the top two choices and have a betting line that balances, Watchmaker raised the odds on both Firing Line and Upstart to 15-1 from last week’s 12-1 and raised Ocho Ocho Ocho to 50-1 from last week’s 30-1.


The final points standings have Madefromlucky, Keen Ice, and Frammento ranked 21st through 23rd, so they are the next horses who would come in if there are defections from the top 20. The connections of both Keen Ice and Frammento are eager to run if their horse can get in.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

Mark Oleary More than 1 year ago
DRF is getting outrageous these days as not one article today was not a DRF+ article, meaning we who dont pay cant read them. I wanted to post about trainer Groder getting suspended for meth and needles. UNBELIEVABLE!
Steve Brabant More than 1 year ago
See the Dubai Derby? Mubtaahij was more impressive than AP with that turn of foot...just like AP you gotta ask who he was beating....actually the top 4 horses all avoided each other....who was ANY of them beating....Carpe Diem beat a well bred Danzig Moon I guess..Mubjaajij's breeding is stellar...he proved he can get the distance...his stamina isnt weakened by lasix....his trainer is superb....just bringing that horse here against the grain says ALOT...this trainer has brought 6 horses to America..all 6 hit the board...2 seconds in the Arlington Million and a 2nd in the breeders cup turf....that trainer knows he's got something....i will take the price...and at 7/2 you want to try to profit from AP? knowing full well his female line is horrible at 1 1/4?
Michael Jacob More than 1 year ago
Baffart is a cheater
saved More than 1 year ago
He learned how from Lucas down in the quarter horse ranks. They then came up to where the real money is and have been shocking (buzzing) winners here ever since. I wouldn't breed my dog to any of their so called champions. Did you ever notice how the horses all come up with some career ending injury right after a triple crown or BC win? Nothings wrong with them except they're not the quality of horse the buzzers made them appear to be. Retire from racing and command big sire bucks for 30 years. Sounds like a plan to me!!! I'm glad to hear you understand how it works.
John Murray More than 1 year ago
Who's Hot: YUM Brands that who! I'm glad to give credit where it is due and in the environmental area, corporate Derby sponsor YUM just won a Classic by agreeing to refrain from using deforestation Palm Oil KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell -- all owned by multinational conglomerate Yum! Brands, America’s second largest fast food corporation -- responded to our demands. Yum! Brands recently announced a new palm oil policy that requires all the palm oil they use for cooking be deforestation-free. Cheers
Rick Cook More than 1 year ago
Ironic, yum brands was/is a part of purina who put horse meat in dog food for years.
Johnny Matheis More than 1 year ago
Don't know if that's enough from GMO Monsanto users. I understand some large companies are going away from Monsanto. Hope these three do. Monsanto is a sick bunch of maniacs for sure.
jackschil1 More than 1 year ago
what does this post have to do with horse racing?
Tony Zag More than 1 year ago
Bobby moved going to Churchill up by one week April 20 vs. April 27 that tells me he has some unanswered questions or he just wants to watch them a little closer.......together? They will most likely will go out together on the track......will be watching to see what a couple of long jogs do for their dispositions.....but he has something up?
Tim More than 1 year ago
How come Mr. Z isn't running in the Illinois Derby this weekend? He'd still have a week off before the Kentucky Derby...
blueyedhusky . More than 1 year ago
Two weeks. Maybe Lukas is trying a new strategy.
Johnny Matheis More than 1 year ago
Lol. Good one.
john obay More than 1 year ago
I agree wherever you place Dortmund on your list (and I have him 2nd behind AP) FL should be right behind. AP is already proven on off track and running style make post position unimportant. Past performances and videos up on twinspires.
mooch More than 1 year ago
Too early until the post position draw, track condition, other late changes and defections, handicapping pace or even having a form yet . But at this point I have noticed that Dortman is 1st or 2nd on most Derby lists, but Firing Line is way below Dortman on most lists (as far down as 11th on some list). With Dortman and Firing Line's two battles legging them both up and both having an easy last prep (no bounce worries), neither one regressing they are both coming into the Derby perfect. Not saying Firing Line is as good as Dortman and he looks like Dortman's Alydar, but how many horses can you fit between their two close finishes? At this point wouldn't you have to list Firing Line directly below Dortman? Not saying I'm picking Dortman or against him, just saying if you have Dortman 1st wouldn't it stand to reason to have Firing Line 2nd, or if you have him 5th wouldn't Firing Line have to be 6th?
Frank Reach More than 1 year ago
Good post. I think, ( for myself anyway), the problem with Firing Line will be the last 1/4 of a mile. I think that is where he and Dortmund will be separated with more than a couple in between. Other than that, Firing Line is a very nice horse.
blueyedhusky . More than 1 year ago
Firing Line is a nice horse because Dortmund he only lost by a head, twice, to Dortmund. And Dortmund is a nice horse because he beat Firing Line, twice. Nice logic. Wake up! They're both equally bad.
Edward More than 1 year ago
But why do you think that? Any objective facts? Dortmund ran a very slow last 3f in the SA Derby so that can't be anything to hang your theory on especially since Firing Line finished up well in the Sunland. Just trying to get to an actual reason as opposed to your gut. It seems silly of those two horses to be anything but consider close at this point.
blueyedhusky . More than 1 year ago
Dortmund. D O R T M U N D! Learn some German! In any case, neither Dortmund nor Firing Line have a chance at hitting the board.
mooch More than 1 year ago
Blue, my point was even if they finish down the track one shouldn't be far from the other (that's why I said "5th and 6th") Maybe a little English not German is in order.
john obay More than 1 year ago
Video handicapping is the best to handicap this derby. I think if you take a serious look at the Arkansas Derby everyone else is running for second money to American Phaoah. The jockey never moved on him and pulled up a 16th of a mile before the wire. I love Dortmund but if you look at his Santa Anita Derby and then you look at the Arkansas Derby there's no comparison. That's my exacta cold. I'll put firing line and international star underneath for the trifecta and super. I think when Garcia really sets down American Pharoah we will see something really fantastic.
Steve Brabant More than 1 year ago
Video handicapping? everybody looks good when they beat nothing...look at the Sunland Derby...then who do you pick? tell you what look at the DUBAI derby....visually Mubtaahij was even more impressive than AP. AP's female line is also suspect at a 1 1/4.
Steve Brabant More than 1 year ago
If that's your bet you will probably bet $24 and get back $12.
Mary Sivak More than 1 year ago
Dortmund is a superhorse
blueyedhusky . More than 1 year ago
He'll be a super dud in the Derby.