04/08/2015 11:31AM

Kentucky Derby: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not for April 8

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Barbara D. Livingston
Frosted's Derby Watch odds dropped from 30-1 to 15-1 after this score in the Wood Memorial.

WHO’S HOT

Danzig Moon, second in the Blue Grass, and Tencendur, second in the Wood Memorial, both secured spots in the May 2 Kentucky Derby by virtue of the 40 points they earned last Saturday, thus making them the two obvious horses to move onto this week’s Derby Watch top 20. Both are 30-1 on the Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Dortmund was lowered by Watchmaker from last week’s 6-1 to this week’s 5-1 following his win in the Santa Anita Derby, but he remains the second choice behind American Pharoah, who was lowered from 5-1 to 9-2. Frosted, the Wood Memorial winner, is down to 15-1 after being 30-1 a week ago. Upstart’s price also ticked lower, to 12-1 from 15-1.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Kentucky Derby: Arkansas Derby all about the points

WHO’S NOT

Daredevil (performance) and Dubai Sky (injury) were removed from the top 20. Prospect Park, fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, saw his price rise to 20-1 from last week’s 15-1. El Kabeir, third in the Wood, and Stanford both ticked up to 30-1 from last week’s 20-1.

ON THE BUBBLE

Last chances, last dances on Saturday. The Arkansas Derby and the Lexington Stakes are the final races in which horses can earn points toward the Derby, but the point value is far more significant in the Arkansas Derby, which offers 170 points (100-40-20-10) compared with a mere 17 (10-4-2-1) for the Lexington. As a result, whoever finishes at least second in the Arkansas Derby will have enough points to make the Derby field. So, this will be a pivotal race for, among others, Bold Conquest, Madefromlucky, and The Truth Or Else.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays