04/08/2015 11:31AM

Kentucky Derby: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not for April 8

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Barbara D. Livingston
Frosted's Derby Watch odds dropped from 30-1 to 15-1 after this score in the Wood Memorial.

WHO’S HOT

Danzig Moon, second in the Blue Grass, and Tencendur, second in the Wood Memorial, both secured spots in the May 2 Kentucky Derby by virtue of the 40 points they earned last Saturday, thus making them the two obvious horses to move onto this week’s Derby Watch top 20. Both are 30-1 on the Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Dortmund was lowered by Watchmaker from last week’s 6-1 to this week’s 5-1 following his win in the Santa Anita Derby, but he remains the second choice behind American Pharoah, who was lowered from 5-1 to 9-2. Frosted, the Wood Memorial winner, is down to 15-1 after being 30-1 a week ago. Upstart’s price also ticked lower, to 12-1 from 15-1.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Kentucky Derby: Arkansas Derby all about the points

WHO’S NOT

Daredevil (performance) and Dubai Sky (injury) were removed from the top 20. Prospect Park, fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, saw his price rise to 20-1 from last week’s 15-1. El Kabeir, third in the Wood, and Stanford both ticked up to 30-1 from last week’s 20-1.

ON THE BUBBLE

Last chances, last dances on Saturday. The Arkansas Derby and the Lexington Stakes are the final races in which horses can earn points toward the Derby, but the point value is far more significant in the Arkansas Derby, which offers 170 points (100-40-20-10) compared with a mere 17 (10-4-2-1) for the Lexington. As a result, whoever finishes at least second in the Arkansas Derby will have enough points to make the Derby field. So, this will be a pivotal race for, among others, Bold Conquest, Madefromlucky, and The Truth Or Else.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

Daniel Laxen More than 1 year ago
El Kabeir's last 2 furlongs were in under 13 seconds.(12.81)...As stated, he didn't need to win either. Don't overlook this Goodolphin runner. Problem is how do they deal with Pharoah should he improve? (12.58) geared down at the wire. 20 horses will put a huge emphasis on the trip, as usual...
juan figueroa garcia More than 1 year ago
any NY bred have real possibility of won grade 1 Kentucky derby, i said ANY
flash gordon More than 1 year ago
Funny Cide won the derby
Vince Piscitelli More than 1 year ago
Actually Frosted's odds STAYED at 35-1 for about an hour after the Wood, at least on 5 Dimes. I jumped on those odds multiple times as they stayed put. Not sure if he will win or not but I do know he won't be, and shouldn't be, anywhere near 35-1. Vince P
Debbie Gardner More than 1 year ago
Just saying, El Kabeir had a strong gallop out in the Wood, may be able to pick up a piece at a nice price.
Lawrence Vaccarelli More than 1 year ago
I am sure we are not the only ones who saw that.....he will come running for sure....that last race was NOT do or die
Mark D More than 1 year ago
The "gallop out" is the most overated angle. Closers always have better gallop outs than speed horses.
rahman Williams More than 1 year ago
I Agree RACE IS Over jockey eases horse up win he know he won it. Commanding Curve had a better gallop out then California chrome in the Derby. Lol. I agree overrated angle
L. More than 1 year ago
Gallop out proves little. Hopportunity also gallops out strong but really hasn't been able to put it all together when challenged by the big guns. Commanding Curve's gallop out has proved little since he's not hit the board since the KY Derby. Depends on how you look at it but I don't play a horse just because he gallops out stronger after the wire.
William Tichy More than 1 year ago
it takes a great horse not a one or two race horse to win .