04/01/2015 12:33PM

Kentucky Derby: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not for April 1

Barbara D. Livingston
Materiality's Derby Watch odds fell from 20-1 to 12-1 after this victory in the Florida Derby.


Mubtaahij, Ocho Ocho Ocho, and Stanford are the three additions this week to the Derby Watch top 20. Both Mubtaahij and Stanford are making their first appearance on the list now that they’ve earned enough points to be assured of a starting stall in the May 2 Kentucky Derby. Ocho Ocho Ocho is back on the list, but his hold is tenuous because he needs points in this Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes. Mubtaahij, the United Arab Emirates Derby winner, is 12-1 on the future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. He has Stanford at 20-1 and Ocho Ocho Ocho at 30-1. Materiality, the Florida Derby winner, saw his odds tumble from 20-1 last week to 12-1 this week. International Star, who beat Stanford in the Louisiana Derby, is now 15-1 after being 20-1 a week ago.

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Far From Over was dropped from the list because of injury, while both Keen Ice and Mr. Z were taken off the list based on their performances in the Louisiana Derby. Watchmaker raised the prices on a few runners, with Firing Line going up to 12-1 from last week’s 10-1, Upstart now 15-1 after being 12-1, and Itsaknockout now 30-1 after being 20-1 a week ago. Keep in mind that as the Derby draws closer, the list will increasingly reflect who has sufficient points to run.


The Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby, and Wood Memorial all are Saturday, and the point values of those races – 100 for first, 40 for second – will vault a horse into the Derby field if he’s not there already. That’s especially true of the Blue Grass, where only Carpe Diem is already assured a Derby berth. Horses like Frammento, Gorgeous Bird, or Unrivaled all could glean enough points from finishing second to have a strong chance of making the Derby field and, thus, the Derby Watch top 20.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays