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Updated on 05/04/2013 12:31PM
Kentucky Derby: Rain turns track sloppy
By Marty McGee
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – As of 1 p.m. Eastern, the updated forecast for the balance of Kentucky Derby Day is not encouraging.
With the main track at Churchill Downs already downgraded to sloppy and the turf course to good after several hours of a steady drizzle, there is little sign of a let-up, according to the latest forecast from TheWeather Channel.
The hour-by-hour forecast calls for continued light rain until about 5 p.m., when the precipitation is supposed to become even heavier. At 6 p.m., the forecast is for cloudy skies, after which rain is supposed to resume. Post time for the 139th Kentucky Derby is 6:30 p.m.
Radar continues to show a dense cover of rain moving slowly in a northeastern direction from the southwest. High temperatures will reach the low 60s.
Churchill track superintendent David Lehr has kept the track sealed all day. Clearly, he will continue to monitor the situation closely and act accordingly. Although it rained at Churchill and the surrounding area shortly after the Kentucky Oaks was run Friday, there was not much overnight rain, and the track was rated fast through the fifth race.
Only five of the 19 runners in the Derby have ever raced on an off track: Revolutionary, Giant Finish, Palace Malice, Itsmyluckyday, and Vyjack.
The last year for a Derby with an off track was 2010.
With the turf downgraded to good, the chance of Point of Entry scratching from the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic would seem to increase. Trainer Shug McGaughey has said he will consider scratching his turf star from the race if the course became too saturated.
Orb is a gift if he holds at 7 to 1.Wet or not.
Here we go, to the betting window ! Sloppy track could make someone alot of money here this afternoon so good luck to all you betters today, the Derby is here today ! The horse that can win this today outright is VYJACK at 30/1 . Frac Daddy is 25/1. I see the Tri and Super paying big Money $$ 20/18/15/2 Exact/boxed/singled every way Good Luck Every one, this what we have been waiting for.. The First saturday in May $$
Yesterday my top choices were Orb, Revolutionary and Java's War With the sloppy track today, I still like Revolutionary but I am going to put Verrazano and Itsmyluckyday as my second and third choices. The rain changes everything! I don't want to overanalyze, but that's my two golden cents.
Are bends allowed in KY? Oh Boy I have to go to work at 5pm. Have fun everyone.
Speed has been holding and the track was sealed.....keep him close with the blinks Michael !
ITSMYLUCKYDAY : This colt "by all means" seems to me to be the Derby colt for the course . Maybe : not the head-liner : but has the "walk for the talk" ! If anyone NEVER considers weather - then : this sport is not too important for them-self . I am going to take a RISK n REWARD wager and try cashing in on wagering mainly for the 3rd place position ( all - all - 3 ) ( all - all - 9 ) ( all - all - 12 ) ( all - 5 - 3 ) ( all - 5 - 9 ) ( all - 5 - 12 ) TRIFECTAS . . . . . ( all - 5 - 3 - 18 , 19 ) ( all - 5 - 9 - 18 , 19 ) ( all - 5 - 12 - 18 , 19 ) SUPERFECTAS $200 PLACE ( 5 ) $800 SHOW ( 5 )
About 8 years ago I had my picks for the superfecta. Every year I bet a $100 super ticket. It rained that year so i took out 2 of my picks & replaced them with 2 that had high Tomalson #s. They came exactly as I had originaly picked them & with my tickets added in with the winning tickets I would have won just under $1.4 million. So I will keep my original picks this time (only $40 now) & add another combination for rain. I learned my lesson.
Oops. Normandy Invasion, has the off track pedigree, also.
There is an old saying."SPEED IN THE MUD." Front runners traditionally, fare better in the mud and slop. I expect Oxbow,Orb,Will Take Charge, and Frac Daddy, to run a decent race on the off track. The entire race is now pick a number.
Here are the things that I won't be considering when handicapping the derby: Post position and track condition (either overrated as a handicaping variable or a complete unknown that I can't possibly factor into my thinking with any confidence whatsoever), trainer or jockey. Here is what I will consider: Proven ability (trumps everything else), projected race shape and my estimate on who might improve going the distance.
- 1.Posted 12/12/2013 10:03AM
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- 5.Posted 12/12/2013 04:46PM