Who is the horse to beat? Brad Free: Dialed In. Mile and one-quarter ideal for improving colt, two-time Derby winner Zito knows how job gets done, low odds main knock. Marcus Hersh: Dialed In. Win over the track, best overall 2011 form, master Derby trainer, the right running style, and likely ability to get the distance. Dan Illman: Dialed In. Prepped creatively by Nick Zito against elders, then swept past the field in the Florida Derby. Other top contenders subsequently stubbed their toes. Byron King: Soldat. He shows a favorable sheet figure pattern − a top, followed by minor regression, and then a bigger drop off. Potential rebounder. Dave Litfin: Soldat. He has raced under a range of conditions, and the Florida Derby was the first time he’s been worse than second. Tactically, his connections surely learned that he dislikes kickback and/or being inside horses. Photo: Dialed In. Credit: Bob Coglianese Mike Watchmaker: Nehro. He has shown a strong late kick and is vastly improved. In a closely matched Derby, you want a colt moving in the right direction. Mike Welsch: Dialed In. At this juncture he would have to be considered the horse to beat, but only by the slimmest of margins. MORE QUESTIONS: • After Uncle Mo's disappointing third in the Wood Memorial, does he deserve another chance? • Which horses are live longshots, and what should their approximate odds be? • Which horse can't you wait to bet against? • Which horse hasn't won a prep race but can win the Derby? • Not one of the most recent major prep races produced a winning Beyer Speed Figure of 100. How does that change the way you will handicap the Derby? • Which prep race is most likely to be misinterpreted? • Among the surprising prep race winners, which one is for real? • Who is the horse to beat?