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Churchill Downs on Thursday announced a new points system to determine eligibility for the Kentucky Derby starting in 2013, replacing the system of graded stakes earnings that had been in place since 1986. If the new system, awarding points for the top four finishes in certain prep races, had been in place this year, what would the 2012 Kentucky Derby field have looked like?
2012 Kentucky Derby field ranked by new points system
| Horse | Graded earnings | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Bodemeister | $660,000 | 120 |
| Dullahan | 855,000 | 111 |
| Gemologist | 703,855 | 110 |
| I'll Have Another | 601,000 | 110 |
| Hansen | 1,550,000 | 104 |
| Creative Cause | 836,000 | 102 |
| Take Charge Indy | 698,400 | 101 |
| Daddy Long Legs | 1,294,030 | 100 |
| Union Rags | 1,170,000 | 74 |
| Prospective | 367,327 | 64 |
| El Padrino | 250,000 | 62 |
| Alpha | 380,000 | 54 |
| Optimizer | 184,708 | 52 |
| Daddy Nose Best | 545,558 | 50 |
| Went the Day Well | 282,000 | 50 |
| Sabercat | 701,429 | 30 |
| Rousing Sermon | 270,000 | 24 |
| My Adonis (AE) | 140,000 | 22 |
| Liaison | 393,000 | 15 |
| Done Talking | 311,000 | 1 |
| Trinniberg | 324,500 | 0 |
• Trinniberg, who pressed the pace behind Bodemeister in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby, would have earned 0 points since his graded earnings came from sprint races.
• Illinois Derby winner Done Talking would have earned only 1 point as the fourth-place finisher in the Remsen. The Illinois Derby at Hawthorne was not included in the points series.
• In addition to those horses, Delta Jackpot winner Sabercat, Rousing Sermon, My Adonis, and Liaison would have likely found themselves on the bubble or excluded from the field. Churchill Downs officials said they expect a score of about 40 points to qualify a horse for the Kentucky Derby.
[MORE: Kentucky Derby entry to be determined by new points system | Trainers react]
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I like it. We probably won't have 20 horses in the race which I always thought was about 6 too many anyway. They should set the bar at 50 points in order to compete in the race. I think that's fair.
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i wonder if the elimination of turf scores in 2011 would have eliminated AK? This may be a start, but it sure ain't perfect, especially for fillies and trainers who teach their horses to stretch out as they get older. i am completely against the UAE derby counting at all- all Daddy Long legs did in this year's KD was take up a space another more deserving colt/ filly should have gotten. hmmm... no emphasis on the bc juvie? hmmmm....not saying it should give the 2 yr old a lock, but it should matter. and WHY include the derby trial unless they move the date back from a week before the real derby? more hmmm... it (the new system) does make one wonder whose horse got shut out this year...
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Not including the Illinois Derby is ridiculous. This plan needs a lot of work.
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Based on 2012 field doesn't looks so great. Even though he finished up the track, it was more interesting having Trinniberg in than MY Adonis (who had no shot). Illinois Derby should have some point value.
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first off, yes, the real issue is field size..make it 16 at the most, you don't have to cut all the way to 14 right away if you care about the betting so much..second, this is great for the sport..it makes it more like other sports, football, baseball, basketball..do the teams that win by 40 against the worst teams make the playoffs, no?..the teams with the best records and highest number of wins make it..translated...the horses with the most points in the biggest races against the best horses wiill make it into the field...i'd rather see the best 10 horses in a crop race against each other than see sprint horses clog the far turn and not allow closers a chance..(union rags)
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CORRECTION:
In my earlier post , I mistakenly stated that the 3rd & 4th Horses had awful low points and earning. Actually, Dullahan, who Bombed Out in the Belmont, ran 3rd and had 111 Points, 2nd best to Bode who had 120 Points. If you "Key Boxed" IHA (110 Points,) in the KD, You would have caught the Exacta and Trifecta. Both paid monster prices!
In short, the 2013 KD Chart may well become a handicapping factor and a betting tool. However, I would express caution in relying too heavily on the figures generated for the 2013 KD.
Diceman
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Seems that you could use both graded earnings AND a point system. Use both in a simple equation to achieve your Ky Derby field. Why all or nothing?
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Races like the Delta Jackpot are great for the sport. Creating buzz on a Friday night or Saturday in December gives Off-tracks across the country a little boost and rewards the hardcore followers of watching the sport with meaningful races that otherwise would be another night of racing at Penn National, Delta, Charlestown and Cal Expo
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Just do Qualifying 3 weeks before like in Quarter Horse Racing, Open up Churchill on a Friday or Sat night after Keeneland runs. This way CDI gets one more big card and doesn't have to share the wealth with the buzz they create in the race which they rightfully owns.
The Kentucky Derby should be designed to better maximize shareholder's of CDI profit. Prep Races for the Derby will just get kicked to the curb with the exception of the LA derby they do nothing for CDI's bottomline. This is the first shot fired at an attempt to kill off Ky Derby preps that don't conform to CDI
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Caution! The 2012 KD Field and Points assigned could be another Factor in a Math System!
The 2012 KD Winner, IHA,earned 110 Points and Bode, who ran 2nd had 120 Points. They did combine for the Exacta, but the 3rd and 4th Horses had awful low Points. This rational, using earned Graded Points, is too similar in concept with the Beyer Figures, and therefore is a toss out. Beyer uses comparative Times and the Point Chart is based on Dollars earned. I will look and analyze the Chart but not bet it as currently constructed.
In short, betting and winning on Horse Racing must include selective Math Figures properly constructed and analyzed! There is no easy shortcut!
Diceman
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Best Bets
AQUINNAH returns to a route and she couldn't have found a much better spot as a horse who wants to be involved early, as the expected pace scenario figures to favor those runners with a little early zip and she appears to be quickest of them all out of the gate; should control the tempo, and that should lead to her running to her best figures. CHARMINGMEGAN has tactical speed and likes to win, a combination that makes her easy to like; should get first run at the top pick.
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