Updated on 05/05/2013 12:13AM

Kentucky Derby odds: Revolutionary, Goldencents co-favorites; Oaks-Derby will-pays

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Barbara D. Livingston
Princess of Sylmar's victory in the Kentucky Oaks made for a Kentucky Oaks-Kentucky Derby double with $621.40 as the lowest will-pay, using Orb in the Derby.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisiana Derby winner Revolutionary and Santa Anita Derby winner Goldencents were, somewhat surprisingly, the 5-1 co-choices over Florida Derby winner Orb when advance wagering closed for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby early Friday evening.

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Orb, pegged the likely favorite for the Derby at 7-2 on Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia’s morning line, was 6-1 with nearly $600,000 wagered in the win pool on Friday. Normandy Invasion was the only other member of the 19-horse field to close at single-digit odds at 8-1. Black Onyx was scratched earlier in the day.

Perhaps the most surprising price on the board after the opening day of wagering was the 11-1 on the undefeated Verrazano.  Florida Derby runner-up Itsmyluckyday also closed at 11-1. In contrast Frac Daddy, 50-1 on Battaglia’s line, was bet down to 15-1 in the early wagering.

The Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby double will-pays were all big ones following Princess of Sylmar’s shocking win in Friday’s Oaks and suggest Orb will be the post-time favorite for the Derby. The $2 Princess of Sylmar-Orb daily double payoff is the lowest on the board at $621.40, followed by Revolutionary, $790; Normandy Invasion, $742; Verrazano, $804.60; and Goldencents, $953.60.  A total of $2,538,808 was wagered in the Oaks/Derby pool.

Kentucky Derby Advance Wagering

1. Black Onyx, scratched
2. Oxbow, 25-1
3. Revolutionary, 5-1
4. Golden Soul, 31-1
5. Normandy Invasion, 8-1
6. Mylute, 14-1
7. Giant Finish, 44-1
8. Goldencents, 5-1
9. Overanalyze, 14-1
10. Palace Malice, 26-1
11. Lines of Battle, 42-1
12. Itsmyluckyday, 11-1
13. Falling Sky, 48-1
14. Verrazano, 11-1
15. Charming Kitten, 32-1
16. Orb, 6-1
17. Will Take Charge, 30-1
18. Frac Daddy, 15-1
19. Java's War, 22-1
20. Vyjack, 42-1

Oaks-Derby Double $2 Will-Pays

1. Black Onyx, scratched
2. Oxbow, $2,133.40
3. Revolutionary, $790
4. Golden Soul, $3,599.20
5. Normandy Invasion, $742
6. Mylute, $1,508.20
7. Giant Finish, $5,844
8. Goldencents, $953.60
9. Overanalyze, $1,246.80
10. Palace Malice, $1,547.60
11. Lines of Battle, $2,337.20
12. Itsmyluckyday, $983
13. Falling Sky, $6,241.40
14. Verrazano, $804.60
15. Charming Kitten, $3,617.80
16. Orb, $621.40
17. Will Take Charge, $3,088
18. Frac Daddy, $3,943.80
19. Java's War, $1,685.60
20. Vyjack, $1,313.80

Nick Arden More than 1 year ago
I got news for you Chrisin and Ann - you ARE the public.
Larry More than 1 year ago
alive to normandy for double.
JoyJackson21 More than 1 year ago
Last year was the first year I had ever played the KY Oaks/KY Derby Daily Double, and I had the great good fortune to win it with Believe You Can/I'll Have Another. I was thrilled, to say the least! Having last year's Oaks/Derby Daily Double enhanced an incredibly fabulous Kentucky Derby weekend or me. I was literally doing the Happy Dance when I'll Have Another crossed the wire first. I was hyperventilating while doing the Happy Dance at the same time! - LOL. IHA's win made my day in many, many ways, both tangible and intangible. I won't have the KY Oaks/KY Derby Daily Double this year because I didn't have Princess of Sylmar in the KY Oaks (I still trying to figure out how I missed that one! - LOL. I'm usually very good at picking horses with excellent records that are being overlooked by the public at the tote board. I am thrilled for Princess of Sylmar & Mike Smith, though - she put on a powerhouse of a show!), however, I'm thrilled for everyone who is still live with their Oaks/Derby Daily Double choices. Way to go, guys!! I'm so happy for you! Choosing Princess of Sylmar was really smart handicapping. Good luck to all of you with your Kentucky Derby Daily Double combinations with KY Oaks Winner Princess of Sylmar! I hope you will be doing the Happy Dance this year, like I did last year. - LOL
Phillip Rodgers More than 1 year ago
Hit pk4 with it and started huge oaks wood der by tix. Not a smart move if u left any of the closers off your tix in that race. Was really not that hars couldn't believe the price. Best of luck to every one else finishing there mutli race tix! Well b rewarded nicely.
ChrisinStl More than 1 year ago
cannot believe the payoffs. you had a ton of speed and horses who liked to stay close, so bet a wheel of the closers. 4 and 6 were best finishers/closers in race. #6 won for fun. 36/1 showed how dumb the betting public is these days.
Ann Ferland More than 1 year ago
I am sometimes astonished at the way the public bets. I once nailed a 46/1 winner at Fair Grounds that I thought should have been 4 or 5 to one. Her last race was bad, but she had stepped up several rungs on the ladder; back down that day. Two back she had been creamed out of the gate, which is death for a front-running type as she was. And to seal the deal, her only other pace rival was a late scratch! Lone speed, wire to wire, ka-ching.
Michael More than 1 year ago
I was watching HRTV yesterday and Migliore kept mentioning this horse over and over. Hats of to him....
thrcinc More than 1 year ago
I am reading thee post and cant believe my eyes... for those who say princess is better than she is... why did she go off at, not second, third, or forth choice, but... 38-1? Lets get serious here, he connection deserve a BIG congrats, but I would talk about this horse like she figured as some want me to believe.
Casey Ennis More than 1 year ago
ur nuts then why was the 11, 8 to 1??? he was 9 to 5 to him last out ran 2nd. Had a ton of speed and only 4 closers of which he's one of them, and you get mike smith???
Clinton Blake More than 1 year ago
I watched her run all winter on the inner track at Aqueduct and when she lost to Close Hatches people obviously thought she was beating upon inferior competition. She was and still is an efficient animal that moves well covering ground and to be honest while I wasn't surprised she was dismissed in the betting I was stunned at the 38-1 odds that she went off.
Casey Ennis More than 1 year ago
This oaks winner is NO mine that bird, his rag number was huge coming into the race, and thorograph number was too. Pa bred maiden winner get's a 40%bonus in state bred maiden special weight. So with Penn nat casino money, the purse was 35k, with the bonus it's a 49k maiden special weight. Pletcher knows that, once he left there look at the aqueduct form, was 9 to 5 to the 11 in the same race last time out. You had 1,2,3,9 all speed balls with stamina questions, this horse was a HUGE overlay. My son thanks the public for his new inground pool, and we get money mike on him. Was a steal, although Julia got screwed at the gate and the backside and ran on well. Proved a lot today in her loss. Think Pletcher is a little pissed at borel???
PALACE MALICE More than 1 year ago
@Tim Yu.....respectfully, you cannot be serious about your comment towards 'Princess Of Sylmar'. This is a wonderful filly, Javier Castellano called her 'amazing'. She won the Busher stakes at Aqueduct by 7 lengths and beat 'Kelli Got Frosty' who is a very nice filly. She ran very nice in the Gazelle and lost to 'Close Hatches' who is an awesome horse. So, I don't really understand your comment about 'Princess Of Sylmar' getting 'Lucky'. If you watch the replay of the Oaks, you can see that 'Princess Of Sylmar' got sideswiped pretty good at the start and she had to overcome that as well. No luck involved in winning the Oaks yesterday Tim, just a great filly showing everybody what she can do. Congratulations 'Princess Of Sylmar' and Mike Smith for a great ride in the Oaks.
Eric More than 1 year ago
I agree Palace Malice - Princess of Sylmar is a solid horse and did not win the Oaks by sheer luck. She improved at the right time, benefited from a change in tactics, and had a stellar ride by Mike Smith. Both Sylmar and Julia were pinched badly at the start - and for whatever reason Sylmar handled it better than Julia. Sylmar has yet to run a bad race in her career and I'll bet that she makes her presence felt in more races. Would be nice to be alive to the Oaks/Derby double today - I smelled an upset in the Oaks but picked the wrong longshot. Man, Mike Smith is a great jockey.
Don Passidomo More than 1 year ago
MW don't you mean ORB is lowest payout @ $621.00? I am alive with #3,#5, #14, all are nice payouts....this should be interesting.....good luck all....
Casey Ennis More than 1 year ago
You like those will pays??? have a 38 to 1 in a ten horse field, and then a 19 horse field, 3 is 790, 5 is 742, 14 is 804. Now lets do a straight parley 80 to win on the 3 should pay is gonna be 640, 5 will be at least 920, 14 will be 480. So the parley with the 5 is a joke. You gain 150 on the 3, might lose on parley with the 5, 14 320 gain. But you have a ten horse field and a 19 horse field. Every year it's the worst payoff. Unless its fav in oaks, then it pays good. Where the value is the oaks,wood,derby pk3...had a free 8,9 square in wood. Every year since 2009 when they made the bet up it's paid great. Give ya one, 2006 Lemons forever 96.20 to win, Barbaro 14.80, 14 horse field in oaks, 20 horse field in derby. Derby that year was wide open. That douple paid 848!!!!!!!! I had it for 20, never again i said would I bet the oaks/derby double unless ur using the fav in the oaks. I'm alive in the oaks/wood/derby pk3 have 8,9/ 3,9,12,14,16. Major taught gave the pk3 out and double combos with 3,9,12,14,16...should be interesting..although some who use the service got a update from a clocker that the oaks winner was to thin and not handling the track, that email went out yesterday at 830am. I still stock with it thou, pletcher even stated that after the victory. GL but I don't like the payoffs your getting in your double for the size of the fields and who you beat in the oaks, and how this years derby by rags, thorograph, beyer and the strike rules, has 6 possible winners. In the past 30 years when these all matched up, only two exceptions won the derby at over 20 to 1, Mine that bird, and Giacomo both derby's didn't even have two or more horses with a beyer prep number over a 100. 3,5,9,12,14,16 are the only six that can win, I threw the 5 out cause he was rank wed, thur, and yesterday in the morning.
Bruce Epstein More than 1 year ago
Ahh the old parlay line . . . while it is accepted as the norm for figuring this kind of thing, it does not take into account many factores. Just BS in the end.
Casey Ennis More than 1 year ago
The parley has nothing to do with the overall point. For the field size 11 horse race, and then a 19 horse race. You have a 76 winner, and six possibilities under a dime payout, The parly was used to underscore the point since the start of the oaks/derby double, the only value in betting it is if you're using a fav or a horse no more than 5 to 1 in the oaks, then the will pays are so high it's crazy. Not going to post countless research for you. The value has been since 2009 when it started in the oak/wood/derby pk3. So explain your factores, as you state....explain how six combos are under a dime.
thrcinc More than 1 year ago
He stated Orb was the smallest payout