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A decision on whether Rousing Sermon will be pointed for the Kentucky Derby may be made this week, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer said on Tuesday.
Hollendorfer said he intends to have a conversation with owner Larry Williams and Dan Kiser, who manages Williams’s farm, to determine a plan. One option other than the Kentucky Derby is the $300,000 Snow Chief Stakes for California-breds at Hollywood Park on April 28.
“We have not ruled out the running in the Kentucky Derby,”
Hollendorfer said. “Our horse is good and fit. He’s has a good foundation. I think we’ll be okay whatever we chose.”
A stakes winner against California-breds at 2, Rousing Sermon was third in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on April 1. Through Tuesday, Rousing Sermon was 20th on the list of 3-year-olds with graded stakes earnings, at $270,000, but one of the horses ranked in front of him, Louisiana Derby winner Hero of Order, is not nominated to the Kentucky Derby.
The Kentucky Derby has a maximum field of 20 horses. If the race oversubscribes, the top 20 horses who were nominated to the race secure a berth. A horse such as Hero of Order, who would have to be supplemented at time of entry, cannot replace a horse who was nominated in January or March.
Hollendorfer said that if Rousing Sermon runs in the Snow Chief Stakes, the colt could join the Triple Crown for the Preakness Stakes on May 19 or the Belmont Stakes on June 9. In addition, lucrative stakes at Monmouth Park and Saratoga during the summer have Hollendorfer’s attention.
“Every trainer in America would want to win the Derby,” Hollendorfer said. “Rather than make a rash decision, we have to decide what we want to do. In my opinion, it’s the toughest race in the world to win. There are a lot of good purses for 3-year-olds to run at.”
frankpickemright /jerry let me help you, give russell a chance
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99% sure he will be starting in the Derby...
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is this a joke?
Surely the Dorf is getting some push from his owner's to run in the Derby. He has to know he would have a 0% chance
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The question for owners and trainers of a 3 year old with graded earnings is how much is the experience of running a horse in the Derby worth? Seriously, put a number to it. $100k? $200k? $500k?
The question of how much it's worth partly depends on the horse you have. But most owners can count on making little money in the Derby itself. The winner gets the bulk of the purse, 2nd pays ok, but really every "paid position" after the winner doesn't receive the type of money you would think deserving of North America's most famous race. Running 4th in the Derby is a fairly good accomplishment, but you're not making a lot of money from it. More so than any other major race, the Derby is a race where to the winner goes the spoils.
So, the owners and trainers of most Derby contenders should expect to actually lose money running in the Derby, or at best break even. Also, about half should expect their horses to either not run again the rest of the year or to be ineffective. For a myriad of reasons, the Derby just grinds up horses and spits them out. So, a significant number should expect not only to make little if any money in the Derby, but be prepared to make little the rest of the year. Weigh what little chance your horse has of winning or running 2nd in the Derby against the much likelier scenario that by running in the Derby your horse will be unproductive the rest of the year.
That leads to the secondary question of what will be lost if the Derby does, indeed, knock your horse out for either all or a large portion of the remaining year. If you think your horse is good enough to be a major factor in races like the Travers and Haskell, or even lesser races like Peter Pan, Dwyer, Northern Dancer, Swaps, Ohio Derby, WV Derby, Indiana Derby, Penn Derby, Oklahoma Derby, Super Derby, then you could be looking at $300-$500k in earnings; and that's just for running 2nds and 3rds and maybe winning one race. Ironically, if you think your horse probably won't be competitive in those races but you somehow lucked into having sufficient graded earnings, then it's probably worth it to go to Churchill.
These factors must be weighed against the joy and excitement of having a horse in the Derby. Owning or training a Derby horse isn't a one day experience. No, it lasts weeks, weeks in which you are treated as one of the most important persons in racing, in which reporters care about your horse, your thoughts, you. And then there is the dream that you might actually win the Derby. Even if you know your horse is a longshot, I'm sure everyone holds out some small hope that the amazing might happen and that their horse might actually triumph. I don't know what it's like to have this dream, to have it alive in you, but it's probably pretty intoxicating. And you can only have this dream if you're in the race.
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He has done nothing and wouldn't even be close here.
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Don't Jerry (he won't). Too many horses are ruined running in the Derby!
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run Jerry run... Funny Cide, Super Saver, Mine that bird, Grindstone didn't have no hype going into the derby and they did ok... deep closers arent affected in the first turn cause there not fighting for position.. there position is in the back make one run passing tired beat up horses and u have a chance
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If you aren't sure by now then don't bother. Find an easier spot.
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Horses that aren't leading or close to the leader at the stretch call (i.e., 1st or 2nd or within 2 lengths) in the last prep have a poor chance of winning the Ky Derby. Rousing Sermon is in that group, as are Sabercat, Liaison, Prospective, Done Talking, El Padrino, and--yes--Union Rags and Dullahan. You have to go back to 1986 and Ferdinand to find a Derby winner that wasn't up close at the stretch of his final prep.
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Do it Jerry. Charismatic got destroyed in the Santa Anita Derby. So did Giacamo. And don't foget about Mine That Bird.
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Best Bets
AQUINNAH returns to a route and she couldn't have found a much better spot as a horse who wants to be involved early, as the expected pace scenario figures to favor those runners with a little early zip and she appears to be quickest of them all out of the gate; should control the tempo, and that should lead to her running to her best figures. CHARMINGMEGAN has tactical speed and likes to win, a combination that makes her easy to like; should get first run at the top pick.
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