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Updated on 05/02/2012 6:02PM
Kentucky Derby handicapping chat with Free, Hersh, Illman
By DRF Staff
DRF handicappers Brad Free, Marcus Hersh, and Dan Illman hosted a live chat during Wednesday's Kentucky Derby draw. Here are the highlights below. For complete handicapping information on the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby, including past performances, expert picks, and more, check out our Kentucky Derby All-Access Package.
Dan Illman: Daddy Nose Best has things in his favor: two wins at nine furlongs, a triple-digit Beyer, and a lot of pace to attack. Daddy Nose Best does have courage. He beat back Lucky Chappy at GG, then wore down Isn't He Clever at Sunland.
Dan Illman: I like On Fire Baby a little bit in the Oaks.
Dan Illman: Isn't He Clever isn't top-class, but he's OK, especially at Sunland. He probably moved too soon in the Sunland Derby.
Marcus Hersh: Don't think Summer Applause will be anything like 15-1 morning line. Should get great setup.
Marcus Hersh: Summer Applause and On Fire Baby my two Oaks horses.
Dan Illman: Bodemeister is very, very good. He's just not very seasoned.
Dan Illman: Gemologist has a big chance, but has a terrible way of paddling with his left foreleg. Paddling means one of his legs looks like it's moving sideways instead of straight ahead.
Marcus Hersh: Gemologist does paddle badly. But he's gotten here, and he looks great. Might affect him more later than now. Gemologist should be in the group just behind the leaders. It could work out for him.
Dan Illman: I wonder if he'll be comfortable in and among horses. I can't see him over 10-1.
Dan Illman: The addition of blinkers may help Went the Day Well focus and behave better.
Dan Illman: I don't like that I'll Have Another is receiving shockwave treatments on his back.
Marcus Hersh: As for I'll Have Another, I'm intrigued. Not a big fan of sire, but bottom side of pedigree is best in field for 10. I'll Have Another has looked as good as any horse training this week. He carries a great amount of weight. Awesome coat. Not a terrible draw for I'll Have Another. Might clear many and get over in stalking group.
Dan Illman: Trinniberg is here because of Derby Fever. He could hurt the other speeds.
Marcus Hersh: My five throwouts: Liaison, Prospective, Dullahan, Optimizer, Bodemeister.
Dan Illman: My five tosses: Done Talking, Prospective, Optimizer, Rousing Sermon, Liaison
Dan Illman: Alpha is a cool little horse and I'll be using him although the recent physical ailments are concerning.
Marcus Hersh: Even with fast pace, which we should have, there's usually one speed still standing. I think it's Hansen.
Brad Free: If Bodemeister gets beat (I think he will), it probably won't be because of post 6.
Dan Illman: No worries about Bodemeister in post six. He's going to go, look for Trinniberg and track him.
Marcus Hersh: I want to pick a winner from the groups of stalkers and closers
Marcus Hersh: I dearly want to like Creative Cause. I came here liking him. I am not getting positive vibes.
Marcus Hersh: I think Optimizer's Rebel close was classic mirage. They were stopping.
Brad Free: Daddy Long Legs drew the rail. Helps his price. Bombs away?
Marcus Hersh: Hansen in 16. Bode farthest in of speeds. An even greater challenge for inexperienced colt.
Marcus Hersh: I think Hansen has drawn well in post 14. Like I said before, I don't think he's going to win, but like him best of the front-end.
Marcus Hersh: Union Rags is the kind of horse who could easily post a lifetime top speed figure Saturday.
Dan Illman: I'm using five horses in the multirace wagers. In no particular order, I'll use Daddy Long Legs, Bodemeister, Dullahan, Alpha, Gemologist.
Brad Free: If you like Bodemeister, you believe he can run two alike back in three weeks.
Brad Free: Question for Dullahan is not ability, it is surface preference. I know, Animal Kingdom.
Marcus Hersh: I think it's more likely someone from behind the third tier winning this year. Just behind stalkers. Can Creative Cause get there?
Brad Free: Animal Kingdom was a pick by many workout experts. Haven't sensed the same buzz this year about Dullahan.
Brad Free: Hope people throw out I'll Have Another because of post. I sure won't.
Marcus Hersh: How you feel about Gem depends how you feel about Alpha. That's the best horse he's beaten.
Brad Free: Not worried about the blinkers story for Creative Cause. He worked with them, without them, raced with and without.
Marcus Hersh: Union Rags seems bound to get into traffic one way or another.
Marcus Hersh: I'll take Liaison as last-place finisher
Dan Illman: I'm with Marcus.
Brad Free: About Bodemeister's non-2-year-old campaign -- valid point. But he worked 26 times over 14 miles as 2 year-old.
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