Updated on 05/03/2012 10:38PM

Kentucky Derby handicapping chat with Beer, King, Peck


DRF handicappers Mike Beer, Byron King and Kenny Peck hosted a live chat on Thursday to preview the Kentucky Derby. Here are the highlights below. For complete handicapping information on the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby, including past performances, expert picks and more, check out our Kentucky Derby All-Access Package.

Byron King: I think Hansen drew favorably outside the other speed; Gemologist good post, too. That said, so much cannot be predicted given the mad scramble

Byron King: Little concern for me with Bodemeister: He's surrounded mostly by closers. I think Take Charge Indy can draft behind Bode and save ground with Borel.

Mike Beer: I don't think Hansen wants more distance, and he is hurt by the expected pace. Nice horse, though.

Mike Beer: Not sure what price anyone will be at post time, but for prices I thought El Padrino, Alpha & Daddy Nose Best were interesting

Mike Beer: I would be shocked if Rousing Sermon was there at the finish.

Byron King: Toss outs: Trinniberg, Optimizer; Rousing Sermon; Liaison, and Daddy Long Legs.

[KENTUCKY DERBY WORKOUTS: Latest updates, Mike Welsch's video reports]

Kenny Peck: I'm throwing out all the speeds, including the favorite, Bodemeister.

Mike Beer: Tossing Hansen, Take Charge Indy, Optimizer, Trinniberg & Done Talking.

Byron King: Dullahan looks like a Keeneland specialist to me.

Mike Beer: Union Rags actually handled traffic well in the Champagne -- smaller field, though.

Kenny Peck: Throwouts: Trinniberg, Bodemeister, Hansen, Take Charge Indy and Rousing Sermon

Kenny Peck: On tossing Bode: The Arkansas Derby was as perfect setup as possible. As a trip handicapper I'm obligated to bet against him.

Kenny Peck: Speed does have an edge today on the main track [at Churchill Downs].

Kenny Peck: I like that work for Went the Day Well, which was with blinkers.

Byron King: Daddy Nose Best going to be shorter than his 15-1 ML.

[KENTUCKY OAKS: Get PPs, watch analysis video, read latest updates]

Mike Beer: I like Rags, but am bothered that I am continually assured that he CAN run faster.

Kenny Peck: Union Rags hasn't had a chance to post big Beyers, due to pace. That won't be an issue on Saturday.

Byron King: I think Creative Cause is being a bit overlooked on the Churchill Downs backstretch; not much buzz. So yes, he could go off at 12-1.

Mike Beer: I think Creative Cause is being overlooked, Not a fan of his, but he may be an overlay.

Kenny Peck: If you didn't already do so, you have to not only watch but rehandicap the Arkansas Derby and the Florida Derby. Those were two studies in race flow/pace

Kenny Peck: I see it like everyone else: Trinniberg, Hansen and Bode up front. Except I don't believe Bode can rate. Then it's up to the closers, and which one is best. Some are clearly too slow, and some are good enough

Byron King: I think Bode can rate; anybody see his 9-horse workout? Unbelievable.

Kenny Peck: I think Union Rags is better than his figures suggest, and he's trained very, very well.

[KENTUCKY DERBY: Get PPs, watch analysis video, read latest updates]

Mike Beer: To me there HAS to be a too-fast pace, that will hurt Bode whether he sits a little or not.

Mike Beer: I worry about the way I'll Have Another has been handled. They've babied him.

Mike Beer: I'm not a Gemoligist guy, and am not using him Saturday.

Mike Beer: Went the Day Well could be something down the line. They're asking a lot of him here.

Mike Beer: I picked Rags, also like Daddy Nose Best, El Padrino

Kenny Peck: What has Bode shown in his form that suggests he will sit behind horses and make one run going 10 furlongs?

Mike Beer: Bode has a rite to embarrass this field Sat. He's the best horse. Doesn't mean he will.

Mike Beer: I wish the Kentucky Oaks Morning Line was close to right. Would love 15/1 on Summer Applause.

Kenny Peck: That Oaks ML might be the worst line I've ever seen for a big race.

Mike Beer: Don't want Broadway's Alibi stretching out.

Mike Beer: In the Humana Distaff Stakes, Mildly Offensive IS the speed of that race. Dangerous horse, I think.

Kenny Peck: For the Oaks, I thought Karlovy Vary benefited greatly from a lack of speed in that last win, but she can also rate.

Mike Beer: Looking for Jemima's Pearl to run late in the Oaks. She's the better Baffert.

Byron King: In the Oaks, Believe You Can second choice for me behind Summer Applause ­- worried about wide trip, duel

Byron King: Nate's Mineshaft is the bomb in Alysheba.

Byron King: I love former claimers like Nate, consistently underrated

Mike Beer: Poor Optimizer has been running on the wrong surface.

Byron King: Daddy Nose Best could run well, but just way too much buzz for a horse that won the Sunland Derby.