05/06/2011 10:18PM

Kentucky Derby handcapping chat with Steven Crist

DRFDerby Welcome to tonight's Kentucky Derby and Oaks handicapping chat. We'll be talking with Steven Crist starting at 7pm
LucindaWalsh100 Can't wait!
wmspt When will we know the final word on Uncle Mo ?
Anthony Aiello friday
Tony Viscardo i think by tomorrow morning
thegreeser What are your thoughts on Mucho Macho?
Joe this is gonna be cool
DRFDerby Thursday night or Friday morning, according to Mo's owner
Steve Tessino Thanks for nthe chat Steve - Hope Dondo and Junior are well.
wmspt I hope he scratch's, i don't want him to beat me
Tony Viscardo cold exacta ?
bsmath Mucho Macho hasn't been in any G1 Stakes
DRFDerby The transcripts for the first two chats will be available sometime after this chat
Tony Viscardo great I was wondering where last nights was
wmspt Ark derby top two
Joe i tried watching on the versus channel yesterday the live draw and all I got was sound, did anyone else have a problem getting a picture?
Karen Martin that's not my pic on profile, its my mom ( she died young )and its her birthday today.
cscinsurance1 i saw it online
Tony Viscardo w with post 1 ?????
cscinsurance1 but not tv
Karen Martin joe my versus was ok
Tony Viscardo saw it on HRTV
wmspt i love it , odds will be great
Tony Viscardo the best horse racing chan
DRFDerby Transcripts of the previous chats will be posted later tonight
1stsaturdaymay Steve, do you downgrade any OAKS runners based on the draw?
Joe glad to see churchill track is drying out, tired of having an off track year after year
Ianveitch Steve, I say throw out Mo and use DI as key with arch, thirsty, midnight, shack and nehro. What say you?
Kelly Fineis Hello All! Happy DERBY!
Tony Viscardo every year a longshot gets 2nd
Karen Martin Dialed, Midnight, Mucho
Josh Atkinson Archx3 won't far any better than lookin at lucky did last year
wmspt imo , dialed in is to slow!
cscinsurance1 small horse in big field might be a problem
bsmath Steven isn't here for six minutes.
Tony Viscardo i hate that post 1
Sanjay Bhartia yeah I think DI is a bet against
cscinsurance1 i agree with wmspt
Joe i like your 3 karen, add shack as your 4th and you have my superfecta
DRFDerby Steven Crist will be joining us at 7pm to talk Derby and Oaks handicapping
hayduke I need rain for my Soldat futures bet at 66-1.
Tony Viscardo feeding the dogs
Karen Martin who is Hammered Hank picking?
DRFDerby or any races on Churchill's Friday and Saturday cards
SB9GAMER anyone in Lousiville w/ an updated Derby Day forecast?
Josh Atkinson wise dan in the alysheba at 15-1
Karen Martin will do Joe
cscinsurance1 noaa says 40% chance of rain
Tony Viscardo he never wins
wmspt i want his job
Steve Tessino Stay Thirstys last was ugly, but I think he sits the trip with the inside horses dropping back and outside gunning. His chances and value?63
Karen Martin yeah, give us Hank's bank!
cscinsurance1 mike welsch does a fantastic job!!!
Tony Viscardo yes Mike does
Roger Cripps Good evening Steve. What is your gut feeling about Uncle Mo running or a no go?
Tony Viscardo Any chance P Val runs away ?
Plans4College ST's last was ugly but they put blinkers on him...now the blinkers are off.
Josh Atkinson i have mixed feelings about mike
1stsaturdaymay I read mike's workout report card, I don't think he particularly liked any of the contestants
cat thief anyone know how the turf course is?
MrTokesalot any early track bias?
cscinsurance1 mo scratches
James Santiva
Josh Atkinson his reports are sometimes conflicting
Jackie Bushore i think they'll scratch mo
Sanjay Bhartia pval may hang on for a super placing but i can't see that horse getting the dist
cscinsurance1 @1stsatnmay, it's a weak crop
Karen Martin mo will be no mo
Roger Cripps Me too from what I have heard
Josh Atkinson CTTT won't get the 1 1/4 miles
cscinsurance1 maybe they'll all run dead last
Terry smith Lets see Mike picked Barbaro and loved Rachel if she ran in the derby
Joe if mo does run, which i dont think he will, he will be a good play against, bad PP and not healthy enough to compete
Jackie Bushore i think nehro's got it with the extra distance he didnt have in the louisiana and arkansas
cscinsurance1 we all get our $ back in 20 horse photo less take
Karen Martin who would you toss out of this race?
stunner81 Mucho Macho Man wins!!!
Tony Viscardo 1/2 the horses
Jackie Bushore watch me go
Josh Atkinson pletcher said if the derby would be running tomarrow mo would run
Jackie Bushore no chance
RX stay thirsty
DRFSteven_Crist Good evening and thanks to everyone for coming.
Mickey Micklaus I find this Derby Chat format a bit overwhelming.
gomezj323 Auto toss post 1
RX how is the weather going to be tomorrow
1stsaturdaymay Tosses - Uncle Mo, Derby Kitten, Master of Hounds, Brilliant Spped etc etc
DRFDerby Welcome everyone - Steven Crist has joined us on the chat - let's start by going over his picks for the Derby
gomezj323 evening
Tony Viscardo hey Steve
DRFSteven_Crist My top Derby picks, which were due Wednesday right after the draw, were Mo/Mucho/Master/Soldat...
RX why is post 1 bad
DRFSteven_Crist Obviously I was not pleased to read today that now they're not certain Uncle Mo will even start...
Jackie Bushore toss them all and give us a stronger crop of 3 year olds
DRFSteven_Crist Obviously I was not pleased to read today that now they're not certain Uncle Mo will even start...
DRFSteven_Crist Obviously I was not pleased to read today that now they're not certain Uncle Mo will even start...
Sanjay Bhartia Steve- are you against all the turf/synthetic horses as per usual?
James Steve, can you explain the trainer changes for Soldat?
DRFSteven_Crist If Mo starts, I'll still include him but this isn't the way you want to see a horse come into the Derby.
Tony Viscardo No Dialed In Steve?
Bob Decelle steve what did you like about master of hounds??
Josh Atkinson @ RX watch last years derby
Mike Jeff Bonde is a great trainer with young horses, what do you think of his chances with Twice The Appeal, especially with improving Beyers?
gomezj323 If he does start, do you throw him out?
Karen Martin why Master? not fond of him
Joe surprised you like mo steve, he just doesn't look himself
RX mo too unpreditable
Tony Viscardo Surprised no DI
RX anyone know wht the wether will be
Sanjay Bhartia well i guess you like MOH so not totally...
Tony Viscardo Master has the linage of derby winners and gomez
Josh Atkinson @ RX 40% chance of showers
bsmath Master is a turf horse
cscinsurance1 40% chance of rain
1stsaturdaymay Steve, what's your strongest A in the derby undercard? Particularly the pick 4 into the derby?
DRFSteven_Crist On Macho -- I like him, I picked him second. Ran well at 2 despite being huge colt who hadn't figured things out...
Joe Dialed in always fires and has a good PP, if de doesnt win he will at least be in the mix
RX thanks
DRFSteven_Crist I loved his Risen Star and give him a pass for the Louisiana Derby
phil When is Churchill Downs going to allow also eligibles for the KY Derby
Karen Martin 100% chance of ugly hats
Roger Cripps Hi Steve, If Mo scratches for sure, who would you replace him with in my Oaks/Derby double, I already have4,8,10,13 and 17.
RX are smaller horses better
James give us the rundown on Pants On Fire
DRFSteven_Crist On Master of Hounds -- Normally I would toss him but this is a spotty Derby field. I think you have to creative.
Joe I like pants on fire PP, could hit the board but don't think will win
Tony Viscardo macho makes for a good story
Joe I have him ranked #5
Steve Tessino What about Thirsty Steve. I think Ramon will be able to get position in the first turn, and think the Fl race is a toss
Terry smith Steve What about Animal Kingdom?
Tony Viscardo one of the worst crop of 3 yr ever .
Mickey Micklaus Yes, what ABOUT Animal Kingdom?
cscinsurance1 lol @karen martin
Buddy Yingling Master of Hounds won't even be in the money.
DRFSteven_Crist On stay thirsty -- Even if you toss his FLA Derby I think he has to improve a lot off his Gotham to be competitive.
Tony Viscardo this is what poly has given us
stunner81 Summer Soiree and Daisy Devine in the Oaks
Karen Martin steve on 50 cent tri- is that only straight bets? ie, does it apply to wheels/boxes or not?
Steve Tessino Soldat had a tough trip lto, but I don't trust Garcia to get him out of the gate
Buddy Yingling Soldat and Uncle Mo are only horses with a 100+ Beyer
Buddy Yingling Anybody who hasn't broken 95 Beyer is suspect.
Jackie Bushore Steve, how about Archarcharch in the 1 hole?
DRFSteven_Crist Throw outs? I'm not sold on the fave..Dialed In's a nice horse but maybe no better than ones who will be 3x the price
Tony Viscardo Arch was my horse is it over w the 1 hole
bsmath Stay Thirsty has Kentucky Derby pedigree
stunner81 If its real sloppy, I make a big bet on Soldat
cat thief Steve, what do you make of Soldat, he's one of your 4?
Joe I would have strongly considered master of hounds if they would have gotten him here 2 wks ago to get him some works over the CD track.
William H. Davis What about MI for 2nd or 3rd
Sanjay Bhartia Hey Steve I'm taking the view that Brilliant Speed's dirt races were poor b/c he was clearly a slow developer and not incapable. Thoughts?
James Cary Steve: I wonder about Soldats ability to get the distance, am I off base here
RX sloppy how about shakelford
Roger Cripps I was thinking Baffert's horse, Midnight Interlude to replace Uncle Mo if scratched in my O/D double.
1stsaturdaymay Who are your OAKS picks? I'm against Joyful, love the horse on the outside by the post is a concern.
Buddy Yingling Soldat ran a 103 Beyer in the slop at a mile and eighth, he can get the distance
DRFSteven_Crist Strongest A in Derby undercard stakes is Hilda's Passion in the Humana.
bsmath Soldat will do good if it rains I hear.
John Gamble Looking at Soldat, Midnite Interlude, and Animal Kingdom for my ex box
Josh Atkinson how do you feel about shackleford?
Arturo Laguna sat weather forecast 30% precpitation,73degrees
James Steve- Case against Nehro?
Tony Viscardo an idea for future derbies only earnings that count are DIRT earnings . this is a joke
Karen Martin Dialed In/ Animal kingdom exacta? my birthday numbers, 8-16. any chance?
DRFSteven_Crist On Soldat -- I'm not sold on his getting the distance but I think he has a world of talent
cscinsurance1 Steve, who was your last derby winner pick?
Steve Tessino @James - Nehro is due to bounce after two big efforts. Oh...wrong Steve?
Anthony Aiello who are your top 3 for the oaks ?
stunner81 Soldat didn't seem to care for the heat
cat thief Steve, what do you make of Soldat's last...I have a hard time forgiving that one
DRFSteven_Crist Archarcharch -- the 1-hole doesn't bother me that much because I expect him to make one run from way back...
DRFSteven_Crist I think he's going to be a little over-bet at 8-1/10-1.
Alex Remington Hi Steve, since there's so much sameness to the field, would you perhaps put more emphasis on post position in your selections?
cscinsurance1 steve, your thoughts on Nehro?
Terry smith any comment on animal kingdom?
Tracy At least organized
Tony Viscardo arch was working the best
DRFSteven_Crist Nehro -- I don't like that he was in perfect position to win his last 2 and didn't.
Jackie Bushore I want to hear about Nehro and Animal Kingdom, too.
John Gamble .Steve, Thanks for chatting with us tonight. How would you rate the prep races as they relate to the Derby?
Tony Viscardo why would u not use him steve
bigcoumbe Steve, is ZAZU a major player tomorrow, or are figs inflated due to SA surface?
DRFSteven_Crist In the Oaks, I'm leaning towards the western fillies, Zazu and Plum Pretty. Think R Heat Lightning was best of them
Roger Cripps I have a feeling big longshot in th Oaks, Im going with the all
James one more steve. i hear that Santiva had his wolf teeth removed. does this set him up for a big effort?
cscinsurance1 but you like uncle mo? he was in perf position to. no?
Sanjay Bhartia St.John's River!
bigcoumbe Steve, I'm really starting to like SHACK in the derby. win over the track, has rated previously, and a neck seperates
RX how about posts on the outside
DRFSteven_Crist Better to bet exotics or tris/supers? That's totally a matter of personal preference.
stunner81 Steven, what do you think MMM's odds will go off at?
phil thinking this is a weak crop..best horse mo is less than 100%
DRFSteven_Crist Play whichever you think you're best at...
Jackie Bushore Steve, how do you feel about Watch Me Go? Does he even deserve to be in this field?
Kevan Smotherman Steve, which Mineshaft closer do you like better to fill out the bottom of my greyhound style exotic wheel, Nehro or Dailed?
DRFSteven_Crist If you're usually a super player, remember there's a $1 min. Oaks/Derby Day instead of $0.10.
MrTokesalot If western fillies win Oaks, do you put more emphasis on SA Derby?
DRFSteven_Crist Maybe consider 50-cent tris instead.
RX what about all those outside posts is that bad
hayduke Steve - could you identify the horses in your responses. Because of the chat format, sometimes hard to know whose question you're responding
DRFSteven_Crist You can get the whole betting menu on my blog
Karen Martin but can you box on .50 tris or just straight bets?
gomezj323 If Uncle Mo does run, is he still on top of your list?
Joe I'm still high on Nehro and think he can win from the 19 post. Your thoughts on him please.
cscinsurance1 serve me up something exotic, Steven
RX u can box
John Gamble box
Karen Martin thanks
RX i dont see how a horse could win from post 19
cat thief Steve, who moves up if a T-shower hits?
wmspt Big brown won from 20
Bob 19 ? See Big Brown .....
Sanjay Bhartia the 50cent tri is good news for those that don't feel like going broke
DRFSteven_Crist The tri minimum is 50 cents whether straight or boxed
bigcoumbe RX. Big brown won from 20..
DRFDerby We're chatting with DRF's Steven Crist until 8 pm on handicapping the Derby and Oaks cards
Ianveitch Steve, now that you know the latest regarding mo, are you still going to use him? seems a bad bet to me.
Buddy Yingling Exotics will pay big in this one I think.
RX what post are usually in it
Ken Hendrix midnite had the fastest mile and eighth
Michael Schwarzkopf There seems to be a lot of speed in the race, would you favor a speed type over a closer. Does it make sense to group them in pick 3's etc
Anthony Aiello what do you think about her smile and st. johns
bigcoumbe thoughts on SHACK. win over track. has rated before. a neck behind the fav....
stunner81 Stevie, who do you like in the Oaks???
Mickey Micklaus Yes, Shackleford thoughts, please.
David Korst We played a nice 5 horse/7 horse/10 horse 50 cent tri for $120
DRFSteven_Crist Animal Kingdom and Brilliant Speed -- I can't take them off their poly races...
gomezj323 @Ken - Fastests on an extremely fast SA track
DRFSteven_Crist I always assume these horses are on poly because they didn't train well on dirt.
Jamie Milligan What about BO-RAIL on the 3?
dagenhamdon Has anyone won from the 1st post position?
Kelly Fineis Love Shack..but the Storm Cat jinx?
Tony Viscardo if calvin wins on this donkey I give up
RX how was the track today
Jamie Milligan Can you tell me more about Track Bias at CD Steve?
stunner81 Bo-Rail is riding a donkey. No chance.
phil if we use mr spock-like logic, shackleford because of his fine work over the surface has to be used
DRFSteven_Crist Shackleford -- if he couldn't last at 9.5 on a speed track, I can't see him getting 10 with more speed in the race.
John Gamble fast as lightning
Tony Viscardo I still say dialed in runs by them ALL
RX maybe 3rd or 4th for calvin
bigcoumbe steve, you like PLUM in the Oaks, do you think she can wire....appears to be pace to keep her honest.
RX dialed got a good post
Buddy Yingling true about Borel on the 3, eh Steve? Donkey?
Max Worth Mo and Dialed In are the only legit horses
AnonSkiLawProf thoughts on Midnight Interlude? Improving at the right time?
Sanjay Bhartia Calvin has obviously become overrated in KDs but I have a bad feeling the donkey may sneak in for a piece!
RX so closers are going to win this race
DRFSteven_Crist Twice the Appeal -- no shot at all. His Sunland Derby was the same day...
Tony Viscardo i agree max
cscinsurance1 mo and DI are bets against
DRFSteven_Crist as the Sunland Oaks and Plum Pretty ran much faster.
David Korst Uncle Mo is a toss!!
Bob Mo is overhyped like Bandini was
RX mo is sick anyways
DRFDerby If you're just joining us, Steve's Oaks picks are Zazu and Plum Pretty
RX he a pooing
Tony Viscardo i agree bout Mo but not Di
stunner81 Stevie, thoughts on Daisy Devine?
Sanjay Bhartia SPEED
RX decisve moment
DRFDerby In the Derby Steve's selections after the draw were Mo/Mucho/Master/Soldat
Troy Mix Any advice on how to differentiate the synthetic preps? How does Keeneland's course play vs. Turfway's?
Max Worth Soldat if it's muddly
wmspt YES
cscinsurance1 DI is too slow of a closer. there are better
cscinsurance1 or faster closers
David Korst Dialed in will be in the tri.................AAA is a toss too
DRFSteven_Crist Top Preps? The five G1 preps were all sub-par... they were decided by two necks, two heads, and a nose...
Jamie Milligan What about Track Bias at CD?
Tony Viscardo Steve thoughts on P VAL ?
Jackie Bushore I want to hear about Watch Me Go.
wmspt DRUGY
Tony Viscardo Yes but they were GD 1's
TonyP_68 does arch3 have a shot breaking form post 1
cscinsurance1 di=dialed in 4:1 ML
Bob Watch me lose... If you bet him
AnonSkiLawProf what about Midnight Interlude?
bsmath DI is Dialed In
Bob he is so so cheap
stunner81 Anybody? Thoughts on Daisy Devine?
Justin Brownstein Steve can you rank the following horses after post from your fave to least fave: Mucho, Midnight, Nehro, Soldat, Animal kingdom, Pants on Fi
Shaman Krauss albarado ok on animal?
John Gamble 5th best filly in the race
David Korst Midnight Interlude will run good.........Baffert has them ready
Sanjay Bhartia yes daisy devine is a play
Kelly Fineis Im all in on Daisy!
Clocker To be honest, this Derby field might have only a handful of grade I talent
Mark Dialed In looks good, especially since the 5,6,&7 horses to his inside are the rabbits
Kevan Smotherman lose this format, I'm here to hear the comments of a pro handicapper and author not a bunch of bozo's.
DRFSteven_Crist Watch me Go -- won a terrible Tampa Derby. None of his 10 races put him in the ballpark.
Ken Hendrix daisy is working great use her
Barry R he is bucking a miilion years of derby readition but baffert is still baffert
Michael Schwarzkopf who are you 'a' horses
slewobarney Hi Steve, which horses would you throw out of your tris, supers based on post position?
Steve Tessino Thoughts on the Alysheba? Regal Ransom is inconsistent, but I don't see anyone staying with him early...and 10/1 is nice
Max Worth I agree Kevan
stunner81 thanks
cat thief Steve, any thoughts on Unrivaled Belle or the La Troienne in general?
Michael Rubino what is your trif and superfecta play?
bigcoumbe MMM is this years ten most wanted
David Korst I think Soldat is sitting on a big race too..........may be first into the stretch
Anthony Aiello what do you think about her smile and st. johns in the oaks
Jackie Bushore I'd like to hear about the Woodford Reserve, too. This field is packed with talent.
DRFDerby Thanks for participating in the chat. Steve's full analysis will be on his blog
Ivan Onna Alysheba = Wise Dan
Edward Barraza what are the chances of shackleford
John Gamble steve- who are your AA selections leading up to the derby for the pic 3 or 4
AnonSkiLawProf Steve...Midnight Interlude and Pants on Fire....thoughts, please.
DRFSteven_Crist Daisy Devine -- has a shot if she improves off her last... and she might since that was her off a layoff
stunner81 I still gotta go with Summer Soiree though.
Ivan Onna Zazu is the synch of the day
Arturo Laguna Daisy Devine hasforward moving line and offers lots of value. I'm boxing her with Zazu and Kathmanblu in the exacta.
1stsaturdaymay For anyone who likes Daisy Devine, don't you have to also like St John's River?
Tony Viscardo don't count Larry Jones out
Jamie Milligan What about Master of hounds? Has a strong Beyer in last race.
DRFSteven_Crist As for AEs in the Derby, they really should have them.
Sanjay Bhartia i don't mind hearing from the bozos...we're all race fans
Stu Schreiber Zazu been crying for more ground and sweeping turns; go to the window
Tony Viscardo jamie that was on poly
Shaman Krauss All gray in the Oaks?
bsmath Shackleford is Kentucky bred and did good in preps
Anthony Aiello st johns is the sleeper in this race
AnonSkiLawProf I would like to hear your thoughts on Pants on Fire, steve.
Clocker Derby should have AEs...but really wouldn't want to see any more of these types of horses this year
Karen Martin me too Sanjay I learn from other's posts
Tony Viscardo THis poly thing has ruined a great race
Ivan Onna Zazu was making ground in the Santa Anita asphalt track...is theplay of the day
Jamie Milligan Thanks Tony!! What do you know about track bias at Churchill?
DRFSteven_Crist The Woodford Reserve is a great betting race... At least 6 of them could be noses apart at the finish
Justin Brownstein Steve can you rank the following horses after post draw fave to least fave: Mucho, Midnight, Nehro, Soldat, Animal kingdom, Pants on Fi
Stu Schreiber Ivan, concur, galloped out six in front
Dustin W Steve, are you going to stab at the Derby superfecta? If so, are you using a key or throwing darts? Bankroll?
DRFSteven_Crist Midnight Interlude -- I need to see more than catching Comma to the Top.
Ivan Onna Stu she will be my single the Late P4
Arturo Laguna Joyful Victory is too slow-a vulnerable favorite. Her Ragozin number is a 9 and top Beyer is 88
Todd I am a late arrival - - What do you think of Soldat and Nehro Steve?
stunner81 I am loving Home Sweet Aspen in the Eight Belles.
Lyric B Can AAA be the first out of 1 hole since Shoe w/ Ferdinand in '86? 50+ on jocks!
DRFSteven_Crist I'm not playing the Derby superfecta because of the $1 minimum... it would be tough enough for a dime.
Stu Schreiber stunner, go to the window
cscinsurance1 @todd, he didn't like nehro coulda won but dint in last 2
Tony Viscardo i think track bias as on ALL big days will be FAST and Speed which scares me
DRFDerby Steve's Derby selections were Mo/Mucho/Master/Soldat for those just joining
Todd Thanks CSC
DRFDerby In the Okas, leaning Zazu and Plum Pretty
Stu Schreiber Mo will scratch!
cscinsurance1 steve, this could be your year. swing 4 the fences
Jamie Milligan So who do you like Tony?
Karen Martin 2 bucks on Twice the appeal just because italians bet on 3. tradition
Steve Tessino Hey Steve - have to concur about the moderated chat being better.I'll catch the transcript later. Give Dondo and Junior a extra biscuit 4 me
AnonSkiLawProf thoughts on Pants on Fire?
DRFSteven_Crist The La Troienne looks like a 2 horse race...
DRFSteven_Crist I'll be starting my Pick 6 off with just Blind Luck and Unrivaled Belle as A's.
Tony Viscardo I like DI , Arch and Soldat and 1 of the frontrunners
Josh Atkinson blind luck!
Michael Schwarzkopf are your picks value picks or the horse u think will win
Tony Viscardo need to see the weather 1st if it rains put in ALL on Soldat
Ghostzapper04 Steve - are you concerned that Mo will be keen early after his gallop this morning?
Stu Schreiber Pletcher won't take a chance with Mo after last year's debacle in Breeders Cup
hayduke I think Mission Impazible is coming into the Alysheba great
Sanjay Bhartia Tony maybe has a point- that has been my anecdotal experience
Ivan Onna La Troinee - All Due Respect, very dangerous
stunner81 Wise Dan in the Alysheba if its sloppy.
Mark Will Archarcharch get mugged on the rail?
DRFSteven_Crist Pants of Fire -- can't see him getting a step for 9F.
Jamie Milligan But if it rains won't they seal the track at Churchill?
gomezj323 Caracortado, a toss off dirt form?
Stu Schreiber What's the weather report for tomorrow?
DRFDerby Steve - who are your top bet-againsts Friday or Saturday?
cscinsurance1 arch is going to break out and take out 3 at the start
Sanjay Bhartia Steve any thoughts on distance pedigrees?
DRFSteven_Crist I'm not sold on Joyful Victory, the 5-2 ML favorite in the Oaks...
DRFSteven_Crist Her figs are slow and she wasn't facing top ones...
cscinsurance1 domino
Saratoga Sam interesting that Bill Mott said Moocho Macho Man and Shakleford look the best to the Eye.
stunner81 Stevie, whats your best longshot play on Friday or Saturday?
Lyric B Steve, thoughts on AAA/Court compared to Ferdinand/Shoe '86
DRFSteven_Crist I'm also not sold on the Derby ML fave...
DRFSteven_Crist Dialed In's a nice horse but maybe no better than ones who will be 3x the price
Stu Schreiber Lyric, you've got to be kidding
gomezj323 if the scratch MO, I think post 1 will have a way better position
Ivan Onna Dialed In - Play against
Josh Atkinson Ax3 will get mugged or take out horses none of which is a good situation...pass
Lyric B stu--question is can he win from the 1 hole
Tony Viscardo SaR every time i bet on how a horse looks I LOSE . Ha
Stu Schreiber no
Josh Atkinson no
FrostyFeast Steve, what do you think of Arienza in the Eight Belles? Could she have gone in the Oaks?
DRFSteven_Crist Lyric B: AAA is no Ferdinand and Court is no Shoe
gomezj323 Lyric, watch Lookin at Lucky from last years race. Notice how he lost the race at the start of it
Lyric B race shape is nice for him -- training amazing
Tony Viscardo I don't agree Steve . Look at the way DI passes horses in his races . Like they are standing still
Stu Schreiber Steve, amen!
brandon Hey Steve, what did you think of Finger Lakes when you were there a couple of weeks ago?
wmspt NOT YET
Sanjay Bhartia in other words no win from the 1 hole!
Clocker Steve: If Uncle Mo decides to scratch out, next possible race? Met Mile against underwhelming older horses possible?
cscinsurance1 tony, it's visual. 10k claimers can do the same thing
Ghostzapper04 Tony - DI *barely* got up to beat Shackleford...
Stu Schreiber Don't be surprised if Mo is retired!
DRFSteven_Crist Brandon: I had a great time at Finger Lakes and they have a great adoption program.
hayduke Tony - they were standing still!
Ivan Onna Steve, chances of Uncle Mo running? I'll say 25%
Tony Viscardo He Beat him and he
Stu Schreiber Ivan, I'll say 10%
jkearns33168 Steve, are you plaing Pick 6's or trying the Pick 5 and 4's?
Josh Atkinson pletcher said mo is go if the race was tommarrow
Sanjay Bhartia maybe Repole should give Mo some vitamin water...that'll cure him
Lyric B My top 5 -- Trends are made to be broken. AAA,MMM, DI, AK, MI
Tony Viscardo He's out of Mineshaft who gets the Dist and Zito knows how to win a derby
David Korst Does it matter if Uncle Mo scratches..........keep him in.........more money in all the pools paid out to the others
TonyP_68 even if mo runs he wont be 100% and anything less wont win this race
James Giliberto clocker...summer campaign for mo...jim dandy travers breeder classic
JSwiss Steve - who do you like in the Woodford Reserve? Think thats a tough race.
cscinsurance1 90% might do it in this fied
Stu Schreiber Anybody want to guess how many breeders cup winners won derby?
DRFDerby Welcome to everyone on the chat, we're handicapping the Derby and Oaks cards with Steven Crist
cscinsurance1 field
Mark There are a lot of horses in the Derby with only synthetic experience. Should they be tossed?
Justin Brownstein There is positive and negatives to Mo scratching. Positive AAA will move to the 2 with a dead closer at the 3. Neg=odds drop everywhere
Ken Steven:And Mo is no Secretariat!
Shaman Krauss Mo shouldn't run if there's a chance of breakdown - hearing injured, not 'sick'
Clint Speers Steve. $100 to bet on Derby. How would you bet?
Lyric B had Ice Box last year -- does DI have a similar race in him?
Clocker James....might not go that way with Indian Charlie influences. Still needs to be answered
DRFDerby Steve's full analysis will be on his blog and he'll be live blogging Derby and Oaks day
slewobarney Odds on a Mineshaft (Di & Nehro) exacta?
cat thief Steve, are you including Master, because other Euros have done well on the Churchill track, or just looking for an alternative?
Michael Schwarzkopf uncle mo is the best 90% Mo is better than these. What % was he in wood?
Saratoga Sam Did anyone notice that Soldat was #17 in the first future pool and now he's #17 in the derby. Now there's a hunch bet!
TonyP_68 hpe everyone bets on mo so I can get more fo rmy horse
Anthony Aiello whats your thoughts on the other horses in the oaks
DRFSteven_Crist Am I playing Pick 6 vs. Pick 5 vs. Pick 4? All of the above
SuperFly Snuka What are your thoughts on Animal Kingdom - can he be succesful on dirt?
stunner81 AAA won't move to the 2 hole. They will move over 19 and 20.
TonyP_68 95% in wood
Sanjay Bhartia come out of retirement Jimmy!
Clint Speers Pick 4
gomezj323 Whats the bankroll for the weekend Steven? If you dont mind me asking
James Giliberto clocker...that was the word i read somewhere today he would not run in any other of the classics and be pointed for those races
Justin Brownstein Stunner I heard otherwise. I do not know the correct answer
Matt Bernier Steve, favorite stakes race on the Saturday card? Woodford Reserve?
cscinsurance1 mo will be outta gas before 1 1/8
SuperFly Snuka Sanjay - I'm did to bankroll my Derby
David Korst Mo should run if he can run.............if he's sick then scratch him...............Not on my tickets anyways...............
DRFSteven_Crist Cat Thief: I'm just looking for a stranger in a weak year.
jkearns33168 Steve, the ALysheba looks tough. Who are your A's as of now? B's too if you've looked at it that closeely
Dustin W I recall hearing Larry Jones compare Joyful Victory to Eight Belles just before the Fantasy...just curious why you don't care for her.
stunner81 They said it on VS. today. Randy Moss said it.
Joe Justus nobody interested in Nehro?
brandon I couldn't agree with you more on Finger Lakes adoption program and not being sold on Dialed In. What is your take on Midnight Interlude?
SB9GAMER $100 to bet on the derby - what you got Steve?
David Korst Rosie may run well..............and Pants on Fire could be in nice post for this race
Bob This chat is a mad scramble into the first turn... Just like the derby... you cannot handicap any derby.. not realistic... its a true racing
Josh Atkinson nehro looked good when he got to kentucky but since then he hasn't looked as good
Stu Schreiber Brandon, Midnight was Baffert's 5th best 3 yr old at beginning of SA
David Korst Nehro will be in top 3
Roberta Soldat splashes home 1st.
DRFSteven_Crist Matt: I really like the Churchill Downs at 7F for older horses...
DRFSteven_Crist in the CD, I'll look at Here Comes Ben at 10-1
SuperFly Snuka Soldat looks to be the forgotten horse - I'm hoping to get > 10:1 on him.
brandon Yes he was, but he is progressing RAPIDLY.
Michael Schwarzkopf my prediction based on this chat - every horse will be bet - one might win
James Giliberto clocker...from bloodhorse areticle today on their website quoting repole...If Uncle Mo misses the Derby, he would not contest either the Pre
Tony Viscardo except Watch me go !! ha
James Giliberto If Uncle Mo misses the Derby, he would not contest either the Preakness (gr. I) or Belmont Stakes (gr. I), Repole said, adding he would be p
DRFDerby For the newcomers - Steve's Derby selections are Mo/Mucho/Master/Soldat
stunner81 Stevi, what will MMM's odds go off at?
Sanjay Bhartia SPEED
bsmath Maybe dead heat
Roberta Nailed Here Comes Ben and Big Drama at the Spa. 7f specialist.
Ghostzapper04 Steve - can you explain why you're interested in Here Comes Ben? Signficant layoff into a G1
lukas $1 trifecta: 6 by 8 by 10 for a total wager of $240. pick the right horses and get ready to claim.
Brian Peeples Steven...Mo and Master in your top 3? What do you see that everyone else doesn't?
SuperFly Snuka Does anyone have a read on Master of Hounds?
Ghostzapper04 Nor will he get a fast pace to close into...
wmspt WINS
Josh Atkinson I like they way animal kingdom, brilliant speed and shackleford have been training
Sanjay Bhartia GOING AWAY
Stephen What -- No Santiva fans?
Michael Schwarzkopf unless u are using all different horse it would cost less
Jamie Milligan I see MOH but not MO. He was a good 2 year old though!!
Ken Hendrix master slow work today bad call
DRFSteven_Crist Layoff on Ben is a concern... but he's run well fresh before.
Tony Viscardo Steve for Super why not just use all for 4th with a cold 1,2,3, in front
Clocker James...He would need a prep before the Jim Dandy in that case. I can't see them going to Travers without getting distance in JD though
Clocker Still a long ways away I suppose
Josh Atkinson here comes ben, long layoff, coming into a G1 = pass
Kelly Fineis Santiva, 3 diff trainers..why?
Aaron Halterman Not high on Santiva. Good question about the trainers Kelly
Roberta Here Comes Ben Loves Churchill, 7f and mud!
Saratoga Sam I think P. Val. will try to wire the field, especially if it rains.
Tony Viscardo I agree Sam he scares me the guy can ride
Ghostzapper04 Doesn't he need a quick pace too Roberta? Won't get that on Saturday.
Josh Atkinson noble's promise looks better than here comes ben
cscinsurance1 that's p vals only hope
Ken Hendrix will the pants b on fire good work last
James Cary Here comes Ben is 7f specialist who beat Big Drama on one of his good days. Im in
Lyric B Steve, who are you most scared of with the Derby not in your top 3
cscinsurance1 but there are 5 others who want the same thing
Shaman Krauss Court has been riding well - Can he place Arch in decent early position?
hayduke roberta - see you at the WINdow with HCBen
DRFDerby We're talking Derby and Oaks cards with Steven Crist until 8pm
Lyric B i mean top 4
MattIL Will Mo run? I sure hope so, as I think he has no shot.
Tony Viscardo Sha no he will make one run from the back
cscinsurance1 steve's gone for coffee...back in a moment
Roberta Pace would help, drawing outside is good at 7f.
DRFDerby Watch his blog at drf.com/blogs/steven-crist for more analysis
DRFSteven_Crist Santiva -- even if you toss his Blue Gras, why should he beat Mucho Macho Man?
Joel Sandlin is forecast for rain still 50%
Lyric B Steve, who's your #5 in the Derby
Aaron Halterman Agree, say no to Santiva
Arturo Laguna Of all 20 horses MOH is most proven at distance 2nd at 1-3/16 albeit on tapeta. He is only Raise A native line -8 of last 11 derbies....
Shaman Krauss Tony - thanks, understood but can he avoid box in?
FairOdds Steve, what's the A/B/C breakdown of ur Derby picks for ur Pick 6 ticket?
cscinsurance1 i think his #5 is ALL
Jacob Luft we should be patient. Steven can only answer one question at a time
Clocker Santiva's excuse in Derby: (fill in blank)
Aaron Halterman Court is a great jockey, but can anyone avoid a box in from that spot?
Stu Schreiber Steve, your selections sound like you've been talking too much with Andy Beyer. I don't think he's picked the Derby winner in twenty years.
stunner81 I am loving Battle of Hastings in the Woodford.
Tony Viscardo i don;t know he was my key until the 1 post
Roberta Soldat, Mucho Macho Man and Pants on fire.
Aaron Halterman Mine too...was loving Archarcharch until that stupid post!
Tony Viscardo funny Stu
cscinsurance1 @jacob but the derby poses several ?'s
slewobarney If there was ever talk of limiting the field to 14 and removing the auxil gate, would you be in favor?
Saratoga Sam I hope NBC does a good job....racing really needs a good shot in the arm
Ian Salon kentucky oaks? who is your pick?
Tony Viscardo After last year with L@L in that post its tough
Aaron Halterman Yes I would slew
Shaman Krauss Me too Tony, soldat in the mud and shackleford any which way.
MattIL Did Steve make his picks? Can someone repost
Joel Sandlin I see a fast pace, with Nehro running past em all late
DRFDerby Steve's Oaks picks are Zazu and Plum Pretty
DRFDerby Derby: Mo/Mucho/Master/Soldat
Lyric B Trends made to be broken Aaron Still like AAA
DRFDerby for those just joining
Ian Salon really
MattIL ty
Jamie Milligan I am going for AAA anyway. If you are a good horse you can win from any position in my humble opinion lol!!
cat thief Steve, which horses will you add to your derby picks if it rains?
Tony Viscardo don't worry steve only 15 more min of this madness .......:)
MattIL If Steve wins I get crushed. lol
Aaron Halterman Hope you are right Lyric! Will be pulling for him
Aaron Halterman haha, agree Matt.
Tony Viscardo I hope so Jamie . It would be great for court
stunner81 Who do you like Ian? I got Summer Soiree
Josh Atkinson i gave up on the 1 post last year when i saw what happened to L@L
Joel Sandlin nehro gets the w
Clocker MattIL: I don't like Steve's picks either...but that's why this might be a good betting race
Ian Salon me too
DRFSteven_Crist In the Saturday Pick 6, I'll try to get alive to 7 Derby horses...
MattIL agreed stunner
Ian Salon love summer soiree
DRFSteven_Crist Uncle Mo, Mucho Macho Man, Master of Hounds, Soldat, Dialed In, Archarcharch, and someone I'm forgetting
Lyric B Me 2--- been on a roll here...with my $100WPS over the years
Matt Bernier Stunner, the only thing in the Woodford I'm expecting is Court Vision to be sorely overbet
Jackie Bushore I want to see Battle of Hastings win the Woodford.
Ian Salon stunner--i love summer soiree
stunner81 Agreed Matt. His days are over.
Michael Schwarzkopf is the winner the one you forgot?
MattIL im on Shack and the freight train that is Animal Kingdom
cscinsurance1 could it be the winner?
Jamie Milligan I like Animal Kingdom too. I LOVE TAX TICKETS!!
wmspt $50 EXA BOX 1 & 2
Mark Should the synthetic experience be ignored?
MattIL jamie he will be bet down. wont be tax ticket
Roberta Yes
Michael Schwarzkopf why will mo get the distance?
Ian Salon summer soiree looks tremendous
DRFSteven_Crist Derby field: 20 is too many, maybe 16?
cscinsurance1 mutual of omaha should sponsor animal kingdom
Buddy Yingling Midnight Interlude Steve?
Tony Viscardo I like animal too but robby will b riding in the Derby w a broken nose ?
Saratoga Sam Ithink the best bet for the money is a $1.00 exacta box with 5 horses, just 20 bucks, and the exacta will pay well over $100.00 no matter wh
stunner81 Ian i am using Daisy Devine also.
Jamie Milligan The way I bet it it will be Matt!! Talk Derby To ME!!
MattIL steven great point but that's what makes it such a great betting race
Josh Atkinson no dont change the tradition to make it easier steve
cat thief Nehro steve?
Aaron Halterman I say 14. Every other race is has a limit of 14, why not this one?
brandon I always have trouble handicapping Europeans. Any tips Steven?
Buddy Yingling throw out the Euro
Clocker Johnny V would look interesting on Animal Kingdom if Albarado couldn't go
Anonymous if you like those tax tickets you will keep it at 20
Stu Schreiber Brandon, learn French
cscinsurance1 @catthief: steve don't like cuz he coulda but dint win last 2
Buddy Yingling any horse flying in from UAE throw out
Bob Nehro is the only horse other than DI with stamina.... 16 of these will be dead by the 1/8 pole
hayduke can anyone find the pace in the Edgewood?
cat thief thanks i forgot
Tony Viscardo He'll go its the derby
lukas no one said a thing about Calvin Borel...that horse must be trash
Ian Salon summer soiree in the NW2 is a monster race look at all the horses he beat that came back to won and ran huge
DRFDerby You can find Steve's detailed analysis on his blog tonight, Friday, and Saturday
brandon From what I see with MOH i've already thrown him out.....but i've done that before and gotten burned (mainly in the Breeder's Cup.)
Buddy Yingling who was last Euro shipper to be in the money in the Derby?
Sanjay Bhartia even if you don't like the whole surface thing Brilliant Speed does have stamina
Tony Viscardo good point bob . Arch can get it also . Neuro could bounce
MattIL predictions on what the derby tri pays? I say 7600
Ian Salon plum pretty can't win unless it rains
Shaman Krauss Calvin has had a tough year - needs one.
Josh Atkinson i liek brilliant speed a lot
Clocker Calvin Borel's style would fit this Derby perfect....but no horse underneath him at all
Fred Reardon They used to run up to 26 in the derby - they changed it.
Jamie Milligan AAA can go the distance too!!
DRFDerby @lukas we talked Twice the Appeal earlier - Steve doesn't like his chances
Saratoga Sam tri...$8400
Justin Brownstein Calvin on Dialed in would be appealing
Matt Bernier Steve or anyone for that matter....thoughts on the turf sprint?
Stu Schreiber Court is a true gentleman but put Calvin on AAA and watch out from rail
Bob BRIDGETOWN a lock.. If thats the race 5f ?
MattIL heres an interesting point. Since the field this year is so 'weak' will the standout in the derby take the last two legs and get the crown
cscinsurance1 court's lack of experience in tough spot is concerning
Lyric B Remember Nehro ran much shorter race in Ark Derby than AAA. Tide has turned
Ian Salon what about the race with blind luck???? i hate her.
Saratoga Sam Is linda Rice in the turf sprint....if so, she's automatic
Stu Schreiber 3 yr old of year is NOT in Derby
Matt Bernier That is the 5 furlong turf sprint
Shaman Krauss Family matters - don't count court/fires out!
Clocker Matt.....maybe the Preakness but doubt the Belmont. Belmont you need the distance in the pedigree strong
Tony Viscardo I think from this blog we learned we ALL have to make our own picks no one knows
Sanjay Bhartia The 2 horse is not a leaver so AAA may not be killed off?
MattIL Clocker there are a few who could
cscinsurance1 I like A/3
slewobarney If any race should be fair, shd be the Derby. The 1 shd not have to be dreaded due to size of field.
Ryan Reading arch the man but at the 1 hole yikes
Clocker Stu....3 y/o of the year is not in the US
Jamie Milligan tri...12k!!
DRFSteven_Crist Turf Sprint -- I'm a huge Chamberlain Bridge fan. It should be a real showdown between him and Regally Ready,
Barry R dialed in , first ,second and third with 5 horses $1 tri total $60 looks very appealing
Ryan Reading i like arch but not at the 1 hole
MattIL true dat
Buddy Yingling my problem is i've got 11 horses right now, who to throw out? LOL
cscinsurance1 post is bad and 1st time derby jock
MattIL Frankel
Stu Schreiber Clocker, correct
Ian Salon arch can't win from the one unless a miracle happens
Sanjay Bhartia who are your 11
Lyric B 2,3,4 are not speed horses...still like AAA
Buddy Yingling anybody who hasn't hit a 93 Beyer is out
Stu Schreiber Bobby is smiling--for once
Ryan Reading comma to the top fits the bill be careful history fits him to a tee with stats
Buddy Yingling My 11 are all w/ more than 93 Beyer
Matt Bernier Frankel: the heir-apparent to Goldikova in the BC Mile
Fred Reardon Stay thirsty has some Belmont appeal.
cscinsurance1 arch has the rail and will save ground 1st turn...
cscinsurance1 then, who knows?
Aaron Halterman Beyers are overrated
Buddy Yingling i like Dialed/Midnight/Soldat the most
Clocker Comma to the Top fits the history of a Derby winner?
cscinsurance1 Welsch seemed to like him this week
Ryan Reading yea but arch wont be able to go the distance in 1 hole
Buddy Yingling but trying to hit the Super
cat thief Steve, what do you think of Streakin Mohican in the race after the derby?
Sanjay Bhartia go with the horse with successive improving beyers last 7 races
Tom Shackleford will win laying off of Comma to the top. Will take over in stretch. Dialed In won't catch him
Ryan Reading yes comma
DRFSteven_Crist Chances of a Triple Crown? You wouldn't think so right now...
Lyric B Comma...may not make it to the stretch
DRFSteven_Crist but maybe somebody jumps up and wins the Derby by 6
lukas anyone willing to lay 1000 to make 100 that there will be no tripple crown this year?
Ryan Reading i went through the percentage stats of derby winners
Buddy Yingling agree Beyers are overrated, but nobody wins the Derby without high Beyers in record
Clocker Ryan....hit those PPs again
Stu Schreiber lyric, concur
Shaman Krauss Pat/ Peter Miller liked last work - distance/surface may be the problem.
slewobarney arch will save ground if he doesn't get 'Lookin at Luckyed'
Jamie Milligan Agree Lukas, No triple crown
Ryan Reading look everone overlookn him
Lyric B thanks stu
stunner81 Mucho Macho Man wins!!!!!!!
Roberta Thorograph is the way to go.
Bob i would lay 10,000 to win 100..... Are you kidding... these are a bunch of claimers in 3 months
MattIL Steven I think thats def possible and I think that one of the mid pack horses can get the lead at the stretch and pull away and win with a l
MattIL little daylight
Sanjay Bhartia bob you can get the -900 on many sportsbooks
cat thief Steve do you think Repole is sandbagging to run up Mo's odds?
Ryan Reading get derby stats over last 30 yers broke down into percentage then apply that to him he is the only horse in the race that fits every spec
Clocker Shackleford might be getting overlooked if he can rate. I will have him on my ticket
cscinsurance1 MI or MMM are best mid packers...
Kelly Fineis Had dream a chesnut won by daylight...just as good as any other way to pick these! lol
cscinsurance1 just wonder is espinoza left enough in the tank
Ryan Reading i like others trust me but?
bsmath Stretch runners win the Kentucky Derby I think
DRFSteven_Crist Thanks everyone for coming... Good luck!
MattIL yeah clocker cant throw him out esp if theres rain
Bob i may join... Is that still legal ?
Stu Schreiber Unfortunately this Derby is a reflection of all that is going wrong in racing.
Sanjay Bhartia repole doesn't need any more money...he's willing to invest in the mets 'nuff said
Fred Reardon Steve, hi, you are trying to get to the KD w/7. Would you go that deep in a Tri?
stunner81 TVG has a Oaks preview at 8PM.
Ryan Reading moss pass figures show this race is actually garbage
Matt Bernier Thanks Steve
Tony Viscardo agree Stu
brandon I've read other places that Mo doesn't look his healthiest, so I don't think Repole is sandbagging.
MattIL gl everyone. go AK
Clocker Ryan....Comma will be pressed from the start and distance limited
Michael Schwarzkopf thanks drf and sc and chatters
Tom Shackleford wins!!
Jamie Milligan Goodnight Tony!! Have a great Derby!!
Ryan Reading its gunna be a longshot
Sanjay Bhartia hey ryan where do the moss pace figues point
stunner81 Repole is a clown!
Fred Reardon good luck
Tony Viscardo u too Jamie good luck Use DI
cat thief Thanks Steve, will check out your blog
Sanjay Bhartia SPEEEED
Ryan Reading clocker right hell get out but arch n decisive mmnt will beat him if he lays 5 off the lead with the horses rallyn in the turn he has a shot
Buddy Yingling I think super will pay big no matter what, i mean huge. Good luck everyone.
cscinsurance1 thanks steve!
hayduke thanks Steve - it will be a fascinating Derby
DRFDerby Thanks to everyone who joined the chat
bsmath Thanks
DRFDerby Good luck on Oaks and Derby Days
Lyric B thank you steve
David Korst Thanks everyone................Good Luck!!!
Sanjay Bhartia Thanks Steve and everyone
Jamie Milligan I am using DI and AAA!!
cat thief how much does .50 all/all/all cost?
DRFDerby You can get PPs here: http://www.drf.com/store/kentucky-derby-past-performances
Clocker Ryan.....5,6,7 will be a freight train out of the gate....all will be fading at the top
Sanjay Bhartia we don't need luck brother
Lyric B with you Jamie...AAAA
Ryan Reading everyone wants to look at dialed in but the didnt do there homework
DRFDerby and follow Steve's blog for both cards: http://www.drf.com/blogs/steven-crist
David Korst 5 w/7 w/ 10 is $120
Ryan Reading but the comma to the top get it lol
cat thief I got my friday form already
cscinsurance1 .50 all/all/all = 20x19x18x.50
Ryan Reading shacleford got a shot to
cscinsurance1 or 19x18x17 if mo scratches
Ryan Reading nehro will most likeyly be dead from 19 hell be fightn mo
Ryan Reading all be is expensicve
DRFDerby You can find a transcript of the chat on this page tomorrow