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04/01/2012 10:28AM
Kentucky Derby Future Wager: Union Rags starts final day as favorite in Pool 3
By Marty McGee
Email
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Despite being defeated Saturday as the odds-on favorite in the Florida Derby, Union Rags was the 7-2 favorite heading into the final day of wagering into Pool 3 of the 2012 Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
With Friday and Saturday wagering complete and with $172,795 in the win pool, Union Rags was bet down to favoritism after closing mildly to finish third behind Take Charge Indy in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. He was followed by Hansen (5-1), the mutuel field (6-1), Creative Cause (10-1), Gemologist (13-1), and Alpha (17-1). Take Charge Indy was 50-1 when betting began Saturday, then dropped to 21-1 by the end of betting Saturday.
Another $54,277 was bet into the exacta pool. Last year, the combined Pool 3 handle was nearly $400,000. A substantial portion of the Pool 3 handle can be expected to come Sunday, when wagering typically more than doubles the two previous days combined.
The pool closes 6:30 p.m. Eastern today. Churchill Downs officials decided to extend their customary closing time by 30 minutes to accommodate the results of the Louisiana Derby, which is scheduled to be run about 6 p.m. at Fair Grounds. Just one separately listed Pool 3 horse, Mark Valeski, is in the Louisiana Derby field of 14.
This is the final pool in the 2012 Future Wager. Pool 1 was held Feb. 10-12 and Pool 2 March 2-4.
Live streaming odds and exacta will-pays are available throughout the weekend on television monitors at tracks and wagering outlets and on kentuckyderby.com.
This is the 14th year Churchill has offered parimutuel futures.
Taking less than 10-1 on Union Rags is a awful wager, he's gonna be around 10-1 on Derby day and has 0 shot to win with that crumb of a rider..
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Castellano hoping off Union Rags pretty much doomed any Derby chances for Union Rags.
Take Charge Indy (Calvin Borel effect combined with a florida derby victory will be 5-1) will be the derby's favorite unless Hansen freaks in the blue grass, Take Charge Indy is actually the only play worth a Future's bet if you like him.
Derby Day,,Take Charge Indy will be the biggest overlay hands down
biggest underlay is setting up to be secret cirlce
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I'm not sure I would want take charge Indy at 50-1, let alone 20-1 .
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I like how the herd is betting down Union Rags! Creative Cause and Gemologist are getting double-digit odds. Great value for two horses who seem reasonably sure of beating Rags in the Derby ....if he starts. There's a chance he might not - given the fragility of these 3 YOs.
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YOU ARE RIGHT RAY,BUT SO MUCH THE BETTER ODDS FOR THE OTHER CONTENDERS
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as much as i like union rags why would you take 7/2 weeks before the race,when if he gets to the starting gate you will probably get 4/1 or 5/1 on the day,the only reason to bet futures is to get value on a long shot that might improve and if your lucky make it into the race at much lower odds,betting the favorite at short odds or the same odds is just plain stupid even if he wins.
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Best Bets
DRINK OR SINK went too fast on the lead last time before fading on the turf at Tampa, and should be less aggressive here with blinkers off. Olguin was aboard for his good fall races on the Poly, and should have him closing at a square price in his second start of the year. GOOD BETTER BEST finished up the track behind two next-out winners when he tried the dirt for the first time March 30 at Gulfstream. He hasn't faced this easy a field in a while, and is no stranger to filling out the exactor.
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