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Kentucky Derby Future Wager: Pletcher, Baffert have 11 of the 23 individual interests
By Marty McGee
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Todd Pletcher might not have the winner of the 139th Derby on May 4 at Churchill Downs, and Bob Baffert might not either. But between them, they have 11 of the 23 separately listed interests in Pool 1 of the 2013 Kentucky Derby Future Wager, a development that seems to bode well for both.
Seven horses made the Pool 1 cut for Pletcher, whose lone Derby score came in the 2010 running with Super Saver, while four made it for Baffert, the three-time winner whose last triumph came in 2002 with War Emblem. Wagering into the first of the traditional three pools opens Friday at noon Eastern and closes Sunday at 6 p.m.
While Churchill linemaker Mike Battaglia has listed the mutuel field, the 24th or “all others” option, as the 9-5 morning-line favorite, Pletcher has the top two separate interests on the line in Shanghai Bobby and Violence at 12-1 each. Four more horses follow at 15-1, including Overanalyze and Verrazano for Pletcher and Flashback for Baffert.
Baffert would have had a fifth interest in Power Broker, but the colt was taken off the tentative Pool 1 lineup Monday because of his light recent workout schedule. He was replaced by Capo Bastone.
Just one gelding, Vyjack, is among the 23 interests. There are no fillies.
Every year since Churchill began offering parimutuel futures in 1999, the field has closed as the favorite in Pool 1. A Pool 1 field horse has wound up winning the Derby in six of those 14 prior years, the latest being Animal Kingdom in 2011. The 2012 Derby winner, I’ll Have Another, was 29-1 in Pool 1 – and 19-1 on Derby Day. The Pool 1 exacta of I’ll Have Another over Bodemeister – a field member – paid $257.80 for $2.
The field usually is a low price for Pool 1, even lower than 2-1.
“No individual horse has really grabbed the attention of Derby fans, and while several lightly-raced horses have turned in impressive races, they are question marks in terms of experience,” Battaglia said in a release. “It will be fun to shop for attractive prices on individual horses, but most fans figure to find their way back to the mutuel field before the pool closes.”
On two previous occasions, a Pool 1 field horse has paid less than $6 by ultimately winning the Derby – when Smarty Jones won in 2004 ($5.60) and Mine That Bird in 2009 ($5.80). Battaglia reiterated the 2013 Derby looks as if it may lend itself to a possible scenario again, which is why he set the field at such a low morning line.
There are no Derby prep races this weekend.
Pool 2 is set for March 1-3, and Pool 3 for March 22-24. Once again a single Kentucky Oaks futures pool will be offered, to run concurrently with Derby Pool 2.
The futures are nonrefundable win and exacta wagers with $2 minimums, including $1 part-wheels or boxes. The takeout is 16 percent. As with any pari-mutuel wager, odds will change throughout the weekend, with final odds established at closing time.
Pool 1 handle last year was a record $631,304, with the three-pool aggregate handle coming in at $1,460,019, fourth-highest in history. The $1,665,990 record for aggregate handle was set in 2005.
The record payoff for a $2 future win wager remains $188 on Funny Cide in Pool 1 in 2003. The record $2 exacta payoff is from Pool 3 in 2011, with Animal Kingdom over Nehro paying $3,074.60.
Churchill tightened the schedule for futures pools from four days to three in 2010, citing a lack of substantial play on Thursdays.
All futures lineups are determined by John Asher of Churchill Downs, Ed DeRosa of Brisnet, and Brad Free and Mike Watchmaker of Daily Racing Form. The 139th Derby is set for May 4.
Real-time updates of win odds and exacta probables are available through a number of sources, including television monitors at tracks and wagering outlets and on kentuckyderby.com.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1
with morning-line odds
1. Capo Bastone, 30-1
2. Code West, 50-1
3. Delhomme, 30-1
4. Den’s Legacy, 30-1
5. Dynamic Sky, 30-1
6. Falling Sky, 30-1
7. Flashback, 15-1
8. Frac Daddy, 50-1
9. Goldencents, 20-1
10. He’s Had Enough, 50-1
11. Itsmyluckyday, 15-1
12. Mylute, 30-1
13. Normandy Invasion, 20-1
14. Overanalyze, 15-1
15. Oxbow, 20-1
16. Revolutionary, 20-1
17. Shanghai Bobby, 12-1
18. Super Ninety Nine, 20-1
19. Uncaptured, 20-1
20. Verrazano, 15-1
21. Violence, 12-1
22. Vyjack, 20-1
23. Will Take Charge, 30-1
24. Field (all others), 9-5
they need a 50/50 gimmic bet. bb, or tp. aginst the field.i would think it would have a handle of $300k/$500k range. think it would be better than the futures.
Shanghai Bobby is the standard for the 3 yr olds. Field bet is only good as a backwheel and a nice longshot on top. I like the idea of a top 100 horses and their odds together for one awesome exacta payoff, but that would require alot of work by eveyone involved. I'm still waiting to cash my futures on Quality Road and Uncle Mo, and waiting, and waiting
What a joke. Offshore books have hundreds of horses listed. If you like a horse that no one else is really paying attention to you can get 100-1 odds, 200-1, depending on the horse you like. Most of the horses on this list either won't make the Derby for whatever reason, and some will go off at higher or similar odds at post time than you're getting on the future bet.
Where is Cerro? G. Motion has a 2 turn dirt allowance winner who he is pointing for stakes next and he cant get on this list? How about Orb, recent 2 turn AOC winner at Gulfstream for Shug? These two horses could have generated some interest since a big next start would put them in the spot light. Who, and I mean Who, is going to go bet Den's Legacy this weekend? He has proven to be an in the money type of weak Cali stakes. He was embarrassed by a galloping Flashback last weekend. And the other one for me is Capo Bastone. HE DOES NOT BELONG ANYWHERE NEAR THIS LIST. He is 1-4 with the win being his maiden at Del Mar. He has not run since being up the track in the BC Juvy and he has had 5 slow works so far in 2013. Who is jumping on that band wagon? Can he run after bleeding in the Juvy? Sadler was worried. Den and Capo were terrible choices when there are allowance winners who will be stepping up next. This could have been a great place to get them at a huge price or at least generate some interest. They seem to love 2 yr old also rans in this first pool as if horse players haven't picked up a form in 2 months.
Why don't they have all 300+ horses nominated to TTC listed. Assign each horse an exacta combination for betting purposes and then it wouls be a true future bet at extreme odds. The favorite would be around 200-1 and some horses would have odds of 2000-1!
Even if he would have ended up 200-1, Texas Bling deserved to be an individual interest over Code West. The chance of either horse making it to the Derby is slim, but Texas Bling has run competitively in stakes races and would have made for a fun two dollar bet. He's already scored at a huge price once! Including Code West was far too speculative by the comity, and was only done so because of his connections. Might as well just have a Baffert vs. Pletcher prop bet instead of this Pool!
The field bet is a sucker's bet. It doesn't involve any handicapping, the reward is not worth the risk, and isn't what this wager is about - placing a bet on a horse you think will win the derby, not about cashing on an easy 2-1. But every year there is someone out there who makes this crazy field bet. It could be an individual or more than one. Regardless, he's like a bridge jumper. BTW I do like two horses Normandy Invasion and Vyjack! Good luck everyone and don't be a sucker!
Cant see Violence being a serious horse, I would not even put him in Pletchers Top 3. He has not beaten a good horse or run fast enough to be even close to the favorite as of yet.
A couple of exacta boxes might be interesting, I'd have to see the pool develop before considering any win bets at these odds.
who assembled the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1, what so called committe put this out??
- 1.Posted 10/19/2014 03:18PM
- 2.Posted 10/17/2014 02:31PM
- 3.Posted 10/17/2014 03:06PM
- 4.Posted 10/19/2014 04:55PM
- 5.Posted 10/18/2014 11:29PM