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LOUISVILLE, Ky. – As usual, the mutuel field is a solid early favorite in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, although Todd Pletcher nearly has ‘em surrounded.
As of 5 p.m. Eastern on Friday, the field – the 24th or “all others” option – was the 7-5 favorite after a healthy $131,303 was bet into the win pool. Pletcher is the trainer of the next four separately listed runners, all of whom were single-digit odds: Revolutionary (7-1), Shanghai Bobby (7-1), Verrazano (7-1), and Violence (8-1). Next in line were Goldencents (8-1) and Itsmyluckyday (22-1).
Another $14,237 was bet into the exacta pool in Pool 1, which opened Friday at noon for the 15th year of parimutuel futures offered by Churchill Downs.
Every year since Churchill began offering parimutuel futures in 1999, the field has closed as the favorite in Pool 1. A Pool 1 field horse has wound up winning the Derby in six of those 14 prior years, the latest being Animal Kingdom in 2011.
In all previous years, the odds on the field invariably have drifted above the even-money mark, but in a wide-open year such as this, bettors might well keep the field below 2-1.
As with any parimutuel wager, odds will change throughout the weekend, with final odds established at the appointed closing time of 6 p.m. Sunday.
Combined win and exacta handle last year for Pool 1 was a record $631,304.
The 139th Derby will be run May 4. Pool 2 is set for March 1-3 and Pool 3 for March 22-24. A single Kentucky Oaks futures pool will be offered this year, to run concurrently with Derby Pool 2.
Real-time updates of win odds and exacta probables are available through a number of sources, including television monitors at tracks and wagering outlets and on kentuckyderby.com.
Pletcher won his only Derby in 2010 with Super Saver and has seven of the 23 separate interests in this pool, with the others being Cape Bastone, Delhomme, and Overanalyze. All those were 99-1 after the first five hours but are sure to drop lower as the weekend unfolds.
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The point totals should be awarded by the amount of entries in the stake.
ie:
4 participants = 4 Derby points awarded to first.
7 participants = 7 Derby points awarded to first.
10 participants = 10 Derby points awarded to first.
In essence, come Derby Day horses will earn berths based on how many horses they actually beat to get there. Strong 3rd place finishes arent good enough. Last season, IHA went STREAKING into the Derby. He won major races. He would have earned his berth into the Derby.
THAT separates the champs from the chumps.
If four horses enter and owners dont want to waste a start for a measly 4 points, then I guess the racing office better start loading gates or cancel the race due to lack of interest.
Your thoughts?
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Too early to tell who will be ready for this. Anybody who tells me that a horse will win right now is off his meds LOL
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Back in the days,
when I sold frozen Prime Beef,
the greatest salesman gave me
some sage advise.
"Sell the sizzle" - Revolutionary is the sizzle.
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This looks like a great year for 3 year olds, you can already name 20 prospective winners, to me, the field is a bad bet, I would take Pletcher at 5-1 and Baffert at 12-1.
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Revolutionary, biggest underlay
Itsmyluckyday, biggest overlay
Verrazano, closest to logical odds
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SIZZLING GOLD looks well situated. The 6yo mare has been a pro for a long time - you don't win 11 times by accident - and some of her best work has come sprinting on turf, on THIS turf course. After nearly 4 months off she came back to be a solid 3rd for $40K on this course June 2 and with that under her belt and a 2-level class drop she looks primed. Oh, that bullet :47 move here June 15 looks like a thumbs-up, too. HEAT TRAP finished full of run to get up in the final stride and in her turf sprint debut here May 19. She obviously has ability but it's first time vs.
