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Kentucky Derby Future Wager: Field still favored at 6-1
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Seven new names are in the 23-horse lineup for Pool 3 of the 2014 Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which opens Thursday at noon Eastern for a three-day run.
Churchill Downs linemaker Mike Battaglia has listed the mutuel field, the 24th or “all others” option, as a lukewarm 6-1 morning-line favorite for Pool 3, followed by Cairo Prince (8-1), Top Billing (8-1), Honor Code (10-1), and Shared Belief (12-1).
The new horses in the pool are Albano, Bayern, Constitution, General a Rod, Kobe’s Back, Tamarando, and Wildcat Red.
Those horses displace the following from Pool 2, which was held just three weeks ago (Feb. 6-8): Bobby’s Kitten, Commissioner, Havana, Matterhorn, Midnight Hawk, Rise Up, and Tonalist.
Pool 3 coincides with the only Kentucky Oaks pool of the season. The field and Untapable are 6-1 morning-line co-favorites for the Oaks, followed by Onlyforyou (8-1), Unbridled Forever (8-1), and Fashion Plate (10-1).
Both pools will close Saturday at post time for the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, scheduled for 4:17 p.m. Eastern. The Gotham is the only prep race with Derby points (50 to the winner) this weekend.
Handle has slumped noticeably thus far for the Derby futures, with Pool 2 having attracted just $380,249, a 39 percent drop from the corresponding pool in 2013 and the second-lowest for a pool offered during the same time frame. Churchill officials attributed the plunge to several factors, most notably that the New York Racing Association didn’t accept the future wager during Pool 2 while engaged in a dispute with Churchill Downs over simulcast fees.
Churchill spokesman John Asher said Monday that NYRA will offer wagers into Pool 3.
The field closed as the 3-2 favorite in Pool 2.
This is the first year Churchill has had four pools. Last fall, Churchill moved Pool 1 back to November for the first time, with the field closing as the 4-5 favorite. Pool 1 handle was $273,174, the fifth-lowest total since futures were first offered in 1999.
Historically, the futures pool held at this time of year (formerly Pool 2 and now Pool 3) has attracted lighter handle than those directly preceding and following it. Handle on the comparable 2013 pool was $407,038. The record for a comparable pool is $511,655, set in 2005.
Only five horses have been separately listed in all three pools toward the 2014 Derby: Cairo Prince, Honor Code, Noble Moon, Shared Belief, and Strong Mandate.
Pool 4 will be held March 27-29.
Handle on the Oaks futures typically is less one-fourth of the corresponding Derby pool, although last year a record Oaks handle of $126,038 exceeded that threshold.
Streaming, eliminated from Oaks consideration Monday due to a knee injury, had been part of the original 23-horse lineup before being replaced by Shanon Nicole.
As with any parimutuel wager, odds are not locked in until the pool closes. There are no refunds.
Real-time odds and exacta will-pays are available on selected monitors at tracks and wagering outlets where futures are offered, as well as on kentuckyderby.com.
Minimum wagers are $2 to win and $2 for exactas, although $1 boxes or part-wheels may be used to reach that $2 exacta minimum.
This is the 16th year for the future wager. Exacta wagering was added in 2009. In the case of field horses filling both exacta slots, the next-best finish by a separately listed horse will count toward the winning combination.
Asher heads the four-person committee that chooses the lineups. The committee also includes Brad Free of Daily Racing Form, Ed DeRosa of Brisnet, and freelance racing writer Gary West.
The Oaks and Derby will be run May 2 and 3.
DRF will include the past performances of the 23 Derby horses in all print editions Thursday through Saturday.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3
1. Albano*, 30-1
2. Bayern*, 15-1
3. Cairo Prince, 8-1
4. California Chrome, 30-1
5. Candy Boy, 20-1
6. Conquest Titan, 30-1
7. Constitution*, 20-1
8. General a Rod*, 20-1
9. Honor Code, 10-1
10. Indianapolis, 20-1
11. Intense Holiday, 15-1
12. Kobe’s Back*, 20-1
13. Kristo 30-1,
14. Noble Moon, 30-1
15. Samraat, 30-1
16. Shared Belief, 12-1
17. Strong Mandate, 20-1
18. Tamarando*, 30-1
19. Tapiture, 15-1
20. Top Billing, 8-1
21. Uncle Sigh, 50-1
22. Vicar’s in Trouble, 30-1
23. Wildcat Red*, 20-1
24. All Other 3-year-olds, 6-1
* - new wagering interest from KDFW Pool 2
Kentucky Oaks Future Wager odds
1. Aragorn Ami, 50-1
2. Arethusa, 20-1
3. Awesome Baby, 30-1
4. Bird Maker, 30-1
5. Cast in Silver, 50-1
6. Dame Dorothy, 12-1
7. Fashion Plate, 10-1
8. Fiftyshadesofgold, 20-1
9. Got Lucky, 30-1
10. House Rules, 20-1
11. Joint Return, 50-1
12. Onlyforyou, 8-1
13. Our Amazing Rose, 30-1
14. Please Explain, 30-1
15. Ria Antonia, 20-1
16. Rosalind, 20-1
17. Shanon Nicole, 50-1
18. She’s A Tiger, 15-1
19. Stopchargingmaria, 20-1
20. Sweet Reason, 20-1
21. Sweet Whiskey, 20-1
22. Unbridled Forever, 8-1
23. Untapable, 6-1
24. Mutuel field (all others), 6-1
I you want pp's you find them at Brisnet.com.
I don't have any way to get the print edition of the DRF. Can I BUY the pp's online? Its a shame I have to even ask this question.....
how about some free pps for derby and oaks drf....you guys talk about promoting the game yet wont ,
bet Intense Holiday in Vegas on Super Bowl weekend. 75-1....if he wins the LA Derby I say he's 12-1 on Derby day....
Message to anyone that wants Samraat at 30-1: I will triple those odds if you wanna bet with me.
This has to be the most misunderstood bet in history..its a futures bet just like a futures option on anything else you take a risk to get paid more..and its actually worked out well if you understand how to play it over the years.especially the exacta pools..ANIMAL KINGDOM X NEHRO paid $3000 + ,ILL HAVE ANOTHER X BODEMEISTER paid $1200 in one of the pools over 10x the payoff on race day.when empire maker was considered the best 3 year old and early favorite for the derby I saw FUNNY CIDE run 2nd to him in the wood in a gritty performance and my thought was if this horse can run with EMPIRE MAKER trained by bobby frankel in ny hes worth a shot at 50/1 in pool one.the other horse was more talented but considering frankels poor derby record and funy cides fighting spirit it was worth a risk.some years are better than others for this I was on ILL HAVE ANOTHER after he won his first graded stakes in California and bet him in all 3 pools and on race day at very generous 15/1 but he was higher than that in all 3 pools 29/1 in the first pool.had DULHAN finished 2nd it would have been a memorable score the exactas were all over 3000 unfortunately he came up a nose short.The ideia is to find one or two horses you think will develop and get the distance and use them as win and exacta keys over a few others you like and hope they stay healthy.the big myth is that the horses in the main body in the early pools wont make it actually on average more than half of the 23 do make it in to the race.and it a really good feeling to sit there with some really big exacta will pays for a small outlay and to just sit back and know that you have great odds on your early picks.
How do you drop Tonalist from the body of this wager?? that is a dis-service...now we get him what what will be less than 6-1....that's a very poor decision....ran second into a very real bias...to a nice horse....and for this the panel thinks less of him than before he had proven himself outside Maiden competition?
Only a fool bets this type of wager. I think I will save my money for the rainbow pick 6.
Shared Belief? still on list?? Ya gotta be kidding me! the horse is lucky to make it to the Travers...he is stuck on synthetics and has not worked for over 8 weeks! Who ever is getting this list ready better keep up with his horses... unless he beliees he is dealing with idiots, in which case he should resign and make room for someone who is up to par with the prospective Kentucky field and what it means..luring bettors that way is wrong and handle will keep declining until that roster of horses shows more respect to horses and patrons.
Anyone know where Bobby's Kitten has been hiding? Also, does anyone know where I can find drf Derby future wager pp's? I don't know why people bash the future wager so much. I bet it each and every time. It's fun for me. It's not like I'm spending the mortgage on it.