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Updated on 02/13/2013 11:20AM
Kentucky Derby Future Wager: Field closes at 8-5, followed by Verrazano at 11-1
By Marty McGee
For the 15th time in as many years, the mutuel field is the favorite in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which closed Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern following a three-day run that drew a combined handle of $621,493.
The field, the 24th or “all others” alternative to 23 separately listed interests, closed as the 8-5 favorite in the first of three futures pools being offered in the run-up to the 139th Derby on May 4. The lowest odds for a separate interest were 11-1 on Verrazano, followed by Flashback (12-1), Itsmyluckyday (13-1), Revolutionary (13-1), Violence (13-1), Shanghai Bobby (14-1), and Normandy Invasion (15-1). Four of that group are trained by Todd Pletcher, who has seven of the 23 horses listed in Pool 1.
The lowest $2 exacta will-pay is the combination of the field over Verrazano (24-20), worth $82.20. There are only a few will-pays worth less than $100 and there are numerous five-figure will-pays.
Handle was $481,632 in the win pool and $139,861 in the exacta pool. Futures were first offered by Churchill Downs in 1999, with exactas added in 2009.
The combined handle was second-highest for any futures pool; nearly $290,000, or about 46 percent of the handle, was bet Sunday. The record handle was set last year with Pool 1, when a total of $631,304 was bet. The record for a pool without exactas ($620,362) was set in 2005.
Churchill vice president John Asher said officials were extremely pleased with the handle, especially with the continued growth of exacta wagering and through advance-deposit wagering platforms.
“We’re off to a near-record start despite the incredible snowstorm that swept through New York and Northeast racing markets on Friday and Saturday,” said Asher. “This is the 15th year of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager and the opening pool has attracted the highest wagering total in each of those years. We look forward to seeing if that trend can be reversed in the two future pools that remain before Kentucky Derby 139.”
Pool 2 is set for March 1-3, and Pool 3 for March 22-24. The only Kentucky Oaks futures pool of the year will be offered concurrent to Derby Pool 2.
The record of $1,665,990 for the highest three-pool aggregate was established in 2005.
Six field horses have wound up winning the Derby in the 14 years since Churchill started parimutuel futures in 1999, the latest being Animal Kingdom in 2011. A victory by a Pool 1 field horse would lead to a $5.20 payoff, which would be the lowest in futures history. The lowest ever is $5.60 after Smarty Jones won as a Pool 1 field horse in 2004.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1
(No., Horse, Final Odds, $2 will-pay)
1. Capo Bastone, 58-1, $118
2. Code West, 56-1, $114
3. Delhomme, 55-1, $113.20
4. Den’s Legacy, 77-1, $156.60
5. Dynamic Sky, 54-1, $110
6. Falling Sky, 114-1, $230.80
7. Flashback , 12-1, $26.40
8. Frac Daddy, 68-1, $139
9. Goldencents, 20-1, $43.40
10. He’s Had Enough, 50-1, $102.60
11. Itsmyluckyday, 13-1, $28.80
12. Mylute, 123-1, $249.20
13. Normandy Invasion, 15-1, $33
14. Overanalyze, 33-1, $69.20
15. Oxbow, 26-1, $54.80
16. Revolutionary, 13-1, $29
17. Shanghai Bobby, 14-1, $31.40
18. Super Ninety Nine, 47-1, $97.20
19. Uncaptured, 40-1, $82.40
20. Verrazano, 11-1, $24
21. Violence, 13-1, $28.60
22. Vyjack, 49-1, $100.60
23. Will Take Charge, 61-1, $124.20
24. Field (all others), 8-5, $5.20
Correction: A previous version of this article misstated the exacta combination with the lowest price in Pool 1. It is the field over Verrazano (24-20), not Verrazano over the field.
Falling sky over 99to 1&goldencents 20to1 are great deal$
I don't understand betting the field at 8-5, unless it's part of an exacta or something... derbydeals.com
I thought Den's Legacy was the value here. Already has the point's to get in where alot of these don't. I think that's a big advantage in Pool 1.
the real value is in the exacta pools.for example a flashback x itsmyluckyday exacta returns 221.or 184 the other way.falling sky with all 1073.volence over dynamic sky 1251.falling sky over flashback 2116 or 2665 the other way.so my point is theres a lot of value in some combinations.yes some of these will probably not even make it but if they do its exiting to sit on an exacta that is paying 10x more than you would get on raceday.for example I was sitting on a animal kingdom x nehro exacta worth 3100 in one of the pools and cashed nicely when it came in.on race day the exacta returned 320.one other point I got off animal kingdom completely by derby day so if not for the futures it would have been a much different day for me.
If Itsmyluckyday goes to post in all three, he wins all three. Afraid some have`nt been paying attention.
Of course this is a huge crap shoot call at this point, but I felt and bet the best value for East Coast horse was #23 Vyjack 49-1, and West Coast #18 Super 99 @ 47-1, that is what I laid down for at total of $4.00, $2.00 each, if they get in KD, place bets on both. When u think about it this whole future thing is so laughable and I am part of the circus
I'm going to be nice to everyone that reads this post and tell you that if Itsmyluckyday breaks from the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby, he is winning. Hope for him to regress ever so slightly in his next prep, get your hiney to the windows and plunk it down on him in Derby Futures 2.
Why would a human place a wager on the field at 8-5? I am somewhat happy because assuming my selection stays healthy, I know I bought my ticket at higher odds than I will get on Derby Day.
Yes, the DFW is a sucker bet - but it's still fun to have a little early action. I played Violence, Flashback, Overanalyze, Super Ninety Nine and 'All Others' in an EBX. Violence and Flashback look the part and if they progress as expected they should be players in the Derby. They're still among the favorites so the value isn't great. Normandy Invasion impressed with that closing kick in the Remsen but Overanalyze looked like a horse that might appreciate a stretch challenge and held on for a gutsy win. Underanalyzed in this pool. One run closers like Normandy Invasion are exciting to watch but there is a LOT of traffic in the Derby. Overanalyze looks like rain won't bother him too much either if weather is a factor. Super99 I just like the breeding on and the odds were decent. 'All Others' is a saver bet. You know you are going to have an entry there so if just one of the individual selections makes it at least I have a play alive.
Marty, I think the exacta combination of the Field (24) with Verrazano (20) pays $82.20. The 20 - 24 combination pays $94.40. I believe that the exacta chart at Kentucky Derby website has the 1st place horse in the vertical column & the place horse listed horizontally. Please check & post what the correct layout is. Thanks.
- 1.Posted 12/05/2013 01:44PM
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