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Kentucky Derby Future Wager: California Chrome is 5-1 favorite in Pool 4
By Marty McGee
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Talk about attrition. Since Churchill Downs offered its earliest-ever Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool in late November, only two horses have been listed in all four pools toward the 2014 Derby – Cairo Prince and Strong Mandate.
The lineup for the fourth and last 2014 futures pool was released by Churchill Downs on Monday, and the customary turnover from the previous pool is evident. Nine new names are on the roster for Pool 4, which opens Thursday at noon Eastern and closes Saturday at 6 p.m. Both the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby are scheduled to be run Saturday after the pool closes.
The new horses for Pool 4 are Bobby’s Kitten, Chitu, Hoppertunity, In Trouble, Midnight Hawk, Ride On Curlin, Ring Weekend, Social Inclusion, and We Miss Artie.
Those horses displace the following from Pool 3, which was held Feb. 27 to March 1: Conquest Titan, Honor Code, Indianapolis, Kobe’s Back, Kristo, Noble Moon, Shared Belief, Tamarando, and Top Billing.
Besides Cairo Prince and Strong Mandate, only three other Pool 4 horses – Bobby’s Kitten, In Trouble, and Ride On Curlin – also were separate wagering interests when Pool 1 was offered Nov. 27-30. However, each was omitted from at least one pool in the interim.
Churchill spokesman John Asher, in noting the considerable turnover between pools, pointed out that 24 different horses have won the 25 Derby-points prep races run so far.
For Pool 4, Churchill linemaker Mike Battaglia has listed California Chrome as a 5-1 morning-line favorite, followed by Cairo Prince (6-1), the mutuel field (8-1), Chitu (10-1), Candy Boy (12-1), and Hoppertunity (12-1).
The mutuel field, the 24th or “all others” option, has closed as the favorite in all three prior pools: 4-5 in Pool 1, 3-2 in Pool 2, and 3-1 in Pool 3.
Handle has slumped noticeably for the Derby futures. Pool 3 handle was $334,326, down 18 percent from the corresponding period in 2013. Pool 2, held Feb. 6-8, was $380,249, down a whopping 39 percent from the corresponding period. And Pool 1, which had never been held in November, was $273,174, the fifth-lowest total since the futures were first offered in 1999. This is the first year Churchill has had four pools.
As with any parimutuel wager, odds are not locked in until the pool closes. There are no refunds.
Real-time odds and exacta will-pays are available on selected monitors at tracks and wagering outlets where futures are offered, as well as on kentuckyderby.com. Minimum wagers are $2 to win and $2 for exactas, although $1 boxes or part-wheels may be used to reach that $2 exacta minimum.
This is the 16th year for the future wager. Exacta wagering was added in 2009. In the case of field horses filling both exacta slots, the next-best finish by a separately listed horse will count toward the winning combination.
Asher heads the four-person committee that chooses the lineups, which also includes Brad Free of Daily Racing Form , Ed DeRosa of Brisnet, and freelance racing writer Gary West.
The Kentucky Oaks and Derby will be run May 2 and 3.
DRF will include the past performances of the 23 separate interests for Pool 4 in the Thursday print editions.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4
Horse, morning-line odds, Pool 4 odds, Pool 3 odds, Pool 2 odds, Pool 1 odds
1. Albano, 50-1, 53-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
2. Bayern, 15-1, 17-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
3. Bobby’s Kitten, 30-1, 3-1(f), 46-1, 28-1
4. Cairo Prince, 6-1, 9-1, 13-1, 26-1
5. California Chrome, 5-1, 32-1, 30-1, 4-5(f)
6. Candy Boy, 12-1, 12-1, 32-1, 4-5(f)
7. Chitu, 10-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
8. Constitution, 30-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
9. General a Rod, 30-1, 36-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
10. Hoppertunity, 12-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
11. In Trouble, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 53-1
12. Intense Holiday, 20-1, 22-1, 69-1, 4-5(f)
13. Midnight Hawk, 20-1, 3-1(f), 19-1, 4-5(f)
14. Ride On Curlin, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 57-1
15. Ring Weekend, 50-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
16. Samraat, 15-1, 30-1, 30-1, 4-5(f)
17. Social Inclusion, 20-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
18. Strong Mandate, 20-1, 18-1, 17-1, 27-1
19. Tapiture, 15-1, 17-1, 39-1, 4-5(f)
20. Uncle Sigh, 30-1, 42-1, 73-1, 4-5(f)
21. Vicar’s in Trouble, 50-1, 52-1, 42-1, 4-5(f)
22. We Miss Artie, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
23. Wildcat Red, 30-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
24. Field (all others), 8-1, 3-1, 3-2, 4-5
(f) – denotes field entry
Ride On Curlin!!!!!!
YOU WANTS US TO SUPPORT THIS BET BUT WE ARE TO BET IT BLIND?!! MR CRIST, ONCE YOU WERE ON THE CUTTING EDGE WITH THE RACING TIMES AND NOW YOUR "CORPORATE AMERICA" WITH THE DRF. COME BACK TO US, STEVE!!!
does anyone have a bomb for a pick in derby before these last preps go off?...
If the futures are Thursday-Saturday why can't you post the pp's on all 3 days instead of just Thursday?
And so why is anyone betting a field horse. ?.California chrome. ?.at 4.5. If u think there's value ther u need your head examine.
Another staggerfest for these overrated sprinters.....
This field seems to lack any really strong 10F pedigrees. The winner might actually be walking by the time he gets to the finish line. It seems like every horse that had a nice pedigree for the distance has dropped out. My best guesses all have big questions about them: 1) California Chrome - pretty lame pedigree, but it's hard not to compare him to I'll Have Another. A couple key differences were that nobody saw IHA coming in his first prep in 2012 and it seems everybody saw Chrome coming. And more importantly IHA had the pedigree whereas Chrome doesn't. Still, it's hard not to love his last performance and I look forward to seeing him in the SA Derby. I would love to see him rate. 2) Samraat - gutsy horse winning in New York. NY hasn't had an impact in the TC races in years and this year's crop looks like sprinters trying to stretch things out. Samraat sticks of a sprinter, but so did Smarty Jones. I'll keep watching. 3) Chitu - How good is this guy? He beat a bunch of milers in the Sunland Derby and looked good doing it. His pedigree is one of the best remaining in the current crop and his style seems perfect for Churchill Downs. Couple that with double digit odds and he might be a nice longshot pick. I do hate the Sunland Derby as a final prep though, because I think it's too far out and the track doesn't transfer well to Churchill Downs in my opinion. (Don't say Mind That Bird, because he finished 4th in the race and I don't care what anybody says, they clearly cheated. That horse freaked for 5 weeks and then returned to old form.) I have a few others I've been watching, but I need to see quite a bit more to even bother bringing them into the discussion. I think one thing is clear, the payout in this year's Derby is going to be huge!
4/5 field odds in pool one was a gift !
The handle has decreased because the idiots changed the structure of the betting- pool closes on Saturday, and four pools. Why is it this industry insists on messing with a good thing all the time? For example, they (NYRA) want to raise the admission to Saratoga from $3 to $5 (and the Clubhouse from $5 to $8). So let me see...parking, admission, racing form for me, program for the wife- $25- $30 before we even bet a race, let alone if you want to have a drink or two, sit inside or have something to eat. Let me get this straight-they want MORE people to be interested in racing- so they are going to RAISE prices. BRILLIANT! Most horse players got into racing because they went with their friends or families when they were young. Now we want to discourage them from coming by raising the prices. NYRA is not making money because they are inept at handling the money they make, old regime, new regime-doesn't matter. They have a goldmine in Saratoga and now they want to soak it for all they can. High takeouts, expensive food and drinks, dismal facilities (yes I know they are FINALLY putting in new TV's to replace the ones they got at the Salvation Army 30 years ago, buying new picnic tables and redoing the bathrooms that are 120 degrees inside- how many years have the fans been asking for these things to happen...10? 15?). Horrible TV broadcasts with moving cameras on rails at the front of the pack (which do absolutely NOTHING to show which horse is in which position except the first two). Filthy OTB's where you wouldn't even let your kid go to the bathroom, let alone a self-respecting woman would ever walk into. Higher purses from VLT's at AQU has lead to 1-9 shots every third race from horsemen dropping higher price claimers because they can lose their horse and still make out like a bandit. Stories of cheating, abuse, drugs, etc. And they can't figure out why the sport is declining.
Can't wait to see what samaarat do at the wood memorial and c how bayern do against candy boy and California chrome