03/29/2015 6:49PM

Kentucky Derby Future Wager: American Pharoah slight favorite

Coady Photography
American Pharoah is the slight choice at 5-1 in Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The Bob Baffert duo of American Pharoah and Dortmund are the favorites atop the fourth and final pool in the 2015 Kentucky Derby Future Wager that closed Sunday.

When Pool 4 closed Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern, American Pharoah was the 5-1 favorite, with Dortmund a close second choice at 6-1. Mubtaahij was next at 8-1, followed by Carpe Diem at 10-1 and the mutuel field, the 24th or “all others” option, at 11-1. Then came Materiality (12-1), Firing Line (13-1), Far From Over (14-1), International Star (17-1), Upstart (18-1), and Prospect Park (18-1).

Easily the biggest odds shift for any horse during three days of wagering was for Mubtaahij, the impressive winner of the UAE Derby on Saturday; after Friday, the first day of wagering, the colt was 69-1. The other two prep winners Saturday dropped in less dramatic fashion: Materiality was 21-1 before winning the Florida Derby, and International Star was 22-1 prior to taking the Louisiana Derby.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

The Baffert colts both have one prep remaining toward the May 2 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs: Dortmund runs Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby, and American Pharoah runs a week later in the April 11 Arkansas Derby. Carpe Diem runs Saturday in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Combined handle for Pool 4, which had a three-day run with a Friday opening, was $417,673, with $273,017 bet to win and $144,456 in exactas. That amounts to an increase of 12 percent over combined handle for Pool 4 last year ($336,717).

Aggregate handle for the four pools was $1,523,175, which not only was up 15 percent over last year but is the second highest since Churchill first offered pari-mutuel futures in 1999. The all-time record for handle in one year is $1,665,990, set in 2005.

The lowest exacta will-pay combination is American Pharoah over Dortmund (1-7), worth $50.40 for $2. In the case of field horses filling both exacta slots, the next-best finish by a separately listed horse counts toward the winning combination.

Pool 1 was held Nov. 28-30; Pool 2 from Feb. 6-8; and Pool 3 from Feb. 27-March 1. The field closed as the favorite in all three. Seven horses were separately listed in all four pools: American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, Daredevil, Dortmund, El Kabeir, Mr. Z, and Upstart.

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 FINAL ODDS

(No.  Horse                          Trainer                P1               P2               P3     P4)

1. American Pharoah            B.Baffert            12-1           10-1           8-1             5-1

2. Ami’s Flatter                     J.Carroll              3-5(f)         5-2(f)         4-1(f)         91-1

3. Bold Conquest                  S.Asmussen        3-5(f)         5-2(f)         4-1(f)         91-1

4. Bolo                                   C.Gaines             3-5(f)         5-2(f)         34-1           28-1

5. Carpe Diem                        T.Pletcher           15-1           12-1          10-1           10-1

6. Daredevil                           T.Pletcher          48-1           40-1          43-1           39-1

7. Dortmund                          B.Baffert            9-1             10-1          9-1             6-1

8. Dubai Sky                          W.Mott               3-5(f)         5-2(f)         4-1(f)         23-1

9. El Kabeir                            J.Terranova        74-1           39-1          47-1           28-1

10. Far From Over                T.Pletcher           3-5(f)         5-2(f)         13-1           14-1

11. Far Right                          R.Moquett         3-5(f)        48-1          30-1           39-1

12. Firing Line                       S.Callaghan       3-5(f)          35-1          29-1           13-1

13. Frosted                             K.McLaughlin    38-1           31-1           4-1(f)         40-1

14. International Star            M.Maker            3-5(f)          44-1          22-1           17-1

15. Itsaknockout                             T.Pletcher          3-5(f)        30-1          30-1            53-1

16. Keen Ice                           D.Romans           3-5(f)         5-2(f)         27-1           69-1

17. Madefromlucky              T.Pletcher           3-5(f)         5-2(f)         4-1(f)         92-1

18. Materiality                       T.Pletcher           3-5(f)         5-2(f)         4-1(f)         12-1

19. Mr. Z                                W.Lukas             47-1          44-1          44-1           70-1

20. Mubtaahij                        M.deKock           3-5(f)         5-2(f)         4-1(f)         8-1

21. Prospect Park                  C.Sise                  3/5(f)         35-1          26-1           18-1

22. Upstart                             R.Violette          53-1          12-1          15-1           18-1

23. War Story                        T.Amoss              3-5(f)         5-2(f)         30-1           41-1

24. Field (all others)             n/a                     3-5               5-2           4-1             11-1

(f) – denotes field entry.

Win pool: $273,017

Exacta pool: $144,456

Total: $417,673

Four-pool aggregate: $1,523,175





David Benning More than 1 year ago
slewof damascus More than 1 year ago
Fred Uhlick More than 1 year ago
Based on Dubai Sky's Win at Turfway Park,Dubai can win turf or dirt.I heard an announcer state the following,at this time of year Churchill track conditions are similar to Turfway artifical Surface.If that's true The Sky can win if Muddy,Wet,Dry or whatever.Take the Bet at 23-1.Freddyonthe highway
Mary Sivak More than 1 year ago
Dortmund is a monster literally and figuratively and I consider forego in a higher class than those other horses especially smarty jones
saratogajunkie More than 1 year ago
Big take-out..sorry I think these are one of the biggest sucker bets there are...out of this entire pool numerous horses are already out...the only two left worth the wager ( and that's from pool one ) are El Kabier 74-1 or Upstart 53-1...good for you if you've got those.
tommy More than 1 year ago
All tracks steal money with big take outs!!
saratogajunkie More than 1 year ago
I would bet that Mubtahwizz goes off Higher than 8-1
tommy More than 1 year ago
He won't get higher than 8-1! After Dortmund or American pharaoh will go out with injury, mubtaahij will be the 3-1 2nd choice!! I got him at 8-1 !!! Remember my picks below and watch me collect come May 2nd !!
Lisa More than 1 year ago
let's WAIT to start crowning "monsters" until they EARN IT! Tired of just comparing AVERAGE race horses to the likes of Secretariat, Affirmed and Citation just because they win a few Derby prep races- I heard it with Smarty Jones, with Big Brown, with Cal Chrome, and tons more- REAL MONSTERS WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN and are crowned as monsters
Frank Reach More than 1 year ago
I get your point Lisa. But, please remember you don't have to have won the Triple Crown to be a monster. Look at Cigar, Zenyatta or Landaluce. Those three....were monsters.
tommy More than 1 year ago
How about wise dan !!! How about main sequence !!!!! How about pleasant colony, Afleet Alex !!! How about smarty jones!!!!!! They are all good horses!!!
Mary Sivak More than 1 year ago
There has never been a monster horse like Dortmund since forego in the 70s. He will prove to be as good if not better. He too will someday refuse to run in a race where he will be asked to carry 140 lbs.
Lisa More than 1 year ago
let's WAIT to start crowning "monsters" until they EARN IT! Tired of just comparing AVERAGE race horses to the likes of Secretariat, Affirmed and Citation just because they win a few Derby prep races- I heard it with Smarty Jones, with Big Brown, with Cal Chrome, and tons more- REAL MONSTERS WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN, then are crowned monsters.
Walter More than 1 year ago
Mary, I am with you. Dortmund looks like something really special to me also. I say monster. He passes the eye test in a big way! I have not been this excited about a horse since Barbaro won the Laurel Futurity
Mike Larson More than 1 year ago
If you are hosting a Derby Party - check out the Derby Party App for iPhone and iPad.
tommy More than 1 year ago
My exacta bet 1 st - materiality, mubtaahij, international star, firing line 2nd : materiality, mubtaahij, international star, firing line, Dubai sky, American pharaoh, Dortmund, carpe diem Win bet - mubtaahij, firing line, international star, materiality !!!!!
Allan Gauthier More than 1 year ago
I think your making your mind up a little early. Still a lot of prep races to go. Betting 4 horses to win makes no sense.
tommy More than 1 year ago
I did play the kentucky derby future for fun and also the exacta payouts are big! Hose horses I bet to win and 1 st in exacta have the highest vo2 max and lactate threshold and I know these horses have a strong chance to win!! I know it's too early based on post position, which jockey is riding, and potential chance for injury, but I bet here because I don't like Dortmund and American pharaoh to win and I know I will get huge payouts! Also I'm afraid that if American pharaoh gets injured like he did before breeders cup, a horse I like may be at lower odds than what I'm getting here!! As far as betting 4 horses to win in kentucky derby with big odds makes lots of sense because if one of these horses win, I double my money and I have a strong chance of winning the exacta as well. My betting is not finished, I will bet on derby day betting pick 3, daily double, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, and another win bet. All I know is that I won't use american pharaoh and Dortmund in pick 3, double, and won't bet them 1st. I will use them underneath because they don't have high enough vo2 max and lactate threshold to win!!!
Joe Rockhold More than 1 year ago
The old 'lactate threshold' angle. Nice.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Tommy will come back and say...see I told you I liked materiality, mubtaahij, international star, firing line materiality, mubtaahij, international star, firing line, Dubai sky, American pharaoh, Dortmund, carpe diem and all the others I like too. I told you one of those 20 would win. He likes to cash exactors worth $45 and put out $64 doing it just so he can feel like a big man. He will bet Win on maybe the whole field. My wife was that way too. She would bet on 6 horses to show. Mind boggling. The one true thing is "Tommy" wears a helmet wen he goes out to play with the other kids even if he is 38 and lives in his grandmothers basement. His grandmother can never figure out where all the tin foil goes until one day in Tommy's basement she found 10 different tinfoil hats with propellers and antennae in them next to his Nintendo set.
tommy More than 1 year ago
I'm the guy that triples my investment!!! Don't be jealous because I bet all the best long shots and collect thousands at the window!!!!!