04/11/2012 4:24PM

Kentucky Derby 2012: Who's hot, who's not for April 11

By Jay Privman
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Four-Footed Fotos
After his upset win in the Illinois Derby, Done Talking has moved into the top 20 of Derby Watch. He is listed as a 50-1 outsider.

WHO’S HOT

Done Talking, the winner of the Illinois Derby, and Rousing Sermon, third most recently in the Louisiana Derby, are the newest additions to the Derby Watch top 20, in large part because of their standing on the graded stakes earnings list. Both are 50-1 outsiders on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Gemologist, the winner of the Wood Memorial last Saturday, is now the co-third choice on Watchmaker’s line at 6-1. He was 10-1 a week ago. Watchmaker has four horses between 9-2 and 6-1, with Union Rags the tepid favorite. I’ll Have Another, the Santa Anita Derby winner, is down to 10-1 after being 25-1 a week ago. Alpha also saw his price tumble, from 20-1 to 12-1, following his runner-up effort in the Wood.

WHO’S NOT

The filly On Fire Baby, who is now pointing to the Kentucky Oaks, and My Adonis, who disappointed in the Wood, were dropped from the top 20.

ON THE BUBBLE

There is big prize money on the line this Saturday in both the $1 million Arkansas Derby and the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes, and large fields chasing those Grade 1 dollars, so there should be a couple of new faces on this list next week. The most closely watched horse will be the highly regarded Bodemeister, who has just $60,000 in graded earnings right now but can significantly add to that total in the Arkansas Derby, in which he is the morning-line favorite. Optimizer, who runs in the Arkansas Derby, and Howe Great, who goes in the Blue Grass, are other horses who need a bit more graded cash to assure themselves spots in the Derby starting gate.                                  

Dan Cronin More than 1 year ago
I told them 2 weeks ago not to drop Bode from top 20 they would look foolish. This horse is a Freak. He ran jan 16th so 16 days from no one mentioning the stupid no 2 yr old stuff. What they dont know is he went head to head with many other Baffert monsters in the morning and they picked him to name Bode.......this horse is a Freak of nature. I will be shocked if he dont win the derby. The only way he loses is if baffert luck draws the rail or the inside couple spots. If he draws decent its over.
steve szymanski More than 1 year ago
My Adonis is a wet track specialist. Catch him on a wet day and make some $$$
denali1 More than 1 year ago
I watched Howe the Great run his races damn he reminds me so much of his grandpa sunday silence. I'm very interested in seeing how he goes Saturday.
Ian King More than 1 year ago
Ihave a guage of most 3y0 w/ out the 'PPS' and don't like his chances but how could i not like any thing Sunday Silence. I'll be rooting for him!
Eric More than 1 year ago
No need to worry about Creative Cause. A drop of Storm Cat's blood has never crossed the finish line first in the Derby and I believe only once in the Belmont (Tabasco Cat). I put a line through the Storm Cat's right away. He may be the 1st but not with my money.
Nicholas Carraway More than 1 year ago
Eric, you have tunnel vision. Take a look at the pedigrees of all Derby winners and you'll find countless sires who hadn't appeared before in a Derby pedigree.
Eric More than 1 year ago
Tunnel Vision, Shmunnel Vision. Storm Cat has been the most domminant Sire and Sire of Sires for the last 10 -15 years. 11/8 is about it for his Get. This might prove differently as his bloodline is dilluted but for now, they are not Classic distance horses.
Ian King More than 1 year ago
So un true both Storm Cat and AP Indy are high producers but neigther dominant at stud like the influential great Saddlers Wells,Mr Prospector or the legendary Nothern Dancer! However Storm Cat has proven him self as a classic sire. Don't forget European Champion Giant Causeway who fought the tenacious Tiznow in BC Classic! Not to mention Cat Thief BC Classic winner and Tabasco Cat Belmon winner!
Eric More than 1 year ago
Unbridled's Song falls close to the same category.
KeenelandCapper More than 1 year ago
so does ap indy...
Eric More than 1 year ago
AP Indy actually shows up in Super Saver's and Rags To Riches Pedigree.
Heather Sutherland More than 1 year ago
while it wasn't the Kentucky Derby, Creative Cause's sire sure didn't have a problem getting a mile and a quarter on dirt. the issue with the whip should be a non issue: don't use it. that race was sneaky good for CC, i've watched every one of his races, and the only time he actually "ran" was about the last 4-5 strides before the wire. (which is why his gallop out was so visually impressive). He is quirky, sure, most horses from the Storm Cat line are. But he will get the distance.
Eric More than 1 year ago
Giant's Causeway could get every bit of the Distance I agree. As well as Tabasco Cat and Cat Thief. I'm not saying that it won't happen, I'm saying that it's not probable. I would think with as many Storm Cat Stallions out there, one of them would have sired a Derby or Belmont winner. As of now, they have not. I wish you luck with CC, he seems to be a great horse.
Ian King More than 1 year ago
You're so right but don't forget the same can be said about the Tiznow's and any thing AP Indy! By the way storm Cat has n't sent enouth entrants to the Derby to right him off!
Ange More than 1 year ago
I can't believe you have I'll Have Another at 10:1... he should be about 6:1. He ran spectacularly and showed he has guts & determination and unlike Creative Cause isn't afraid of the whip or having horses near him.
Nicholas Carraway More than 1 year ago
Creative Cause may not like the whip, but he certainly doesn't mind having horses near him. Once the jock stopped using the whip, CC ran tough and straight with IHA through the stretch.
Ange More than 1 year ago
Sorry, I disagree, watch the replay, CC is all over the track whether he's being hit or not. He only stops going sideways when the 2 horses close in on him on either side. I think that's why he ran 2nd he was trying to suck back out of it. I think they made a big mistake taking the blinkers off that horse. I've trained horses that have acted just like him. Sometimes they get over it, sometimes, not.
Edward Kelly More than 1 year ago
I agree. When things started to move fast in the race nearing the final turn this horse hesitated and he isn't good enough to do that. He wasn't exactly eating up ground on his rival at the end. (Spare me out any gallop out assessment as I find that to be meaningless and over used)Plus, this is now two races in row that IHA has run a better race than CC. In the 8.5f preceding this both at SA. People raved about CC race but IHA in the Lewis was 2 steps up better.
Bob Roberts More than 1 year ago
Are the connections for horses running in this weekend's preps conceding they can't win the Triple Crown?
You Feel Lucky More than 1 year ago
NO!