04/11/2012 4:24PM

Kentucky Derby 2012: Who's hot, who's not for April 11

Four-Footed Fotos
After his upset win in the Illinois Derby, Done Talking has moved into the top 20 of Derby Watch. He is listed as a 50-1 outsider.


Done Talking, the winner of the Illinois Derby, and Rousing Sermon, third most recently in the Louisiana Derby, are the newest additions to the Derby Watch top 20, in large part because of their standing on the graded stakes earnings list. Both are 50-1 outsiders on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Gemologist, the winner of the Wood Memorial last Saturday, is now the co-third choice on Watchmaker’s line at 6-1. He was 10-1 a week ago. Watchmaker has four horses between 9-2 and 6-1, with Union Rags the tepid favorite. I’ll Have Another, the Santa Anita Derby winner, is down to 10-1 after being 25-1 a week ago. Alpha also saw his price tumble, from 20-1 to 12-1, following his runner-up effort in the Wood.


The filly On Fire Baby, who is now pointing to the Kentucky Oaks, and My Adonis, who disappointed in the Wood, were dropped from the top 20.


There is big prize money on the line this Saturday in both the $1 million Arkansas Derby and the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes, and large fields chasing those Grade 1 dollars, so there should be a couple of new faces on this list next week. The most closely watched horse will be the highly regarded Bodemeister, who has just $60,000 in graded earnings right now but can significantly add to that total in the Arkansas Derby, in which he is the morning-line favorite. Optimizer, who runs in the Arkansas Derby, and Howe Great, who goes in the Blue Grass, are other horses who need a bit more graded cash to assure themselves spots in the Derby starting gate.