10/23/2006 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for Wednesday

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! This meet should be a challenge for the 2-year-olds as many will race over Polytrack for the first time. I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile contest at the meet, and hopefully will improve on the profits made with "Spa Babies." Good luck!

Week 1 record (Starts - Wins - Profit Loss per $2 bet): 9-1-4, -$18

Week 2 record: 9-1-5, -$3.60

Week 3 record: 15-4-10, +$12.00

Meet Record: 33-6-19, -$9.60

Race 1
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($50,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $22,000

1. Roll on Roll On (Storm and a Half - Brass Doll, by Dixie Brass)
Trainer: Hal Wiggins
Foaled March 24, 2004 in Arkansas...full to sprint stakes-winner Doll and a Half (14-2-1-2, $60,989, 1-5 at 2), and juvenile stakes-winner Brassie Prince (16-5-2-0, $92,870, 2-5 at 2)...sire was unraced...sire is 25-132 (19%) with juveniles...dam went 17-3-3-1 for $66,186 (2-4 at 2, all wins sprinting)...dam has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 1 debut winner)...dam half to multiple stakes-placed juvenile Unforgettable R N (81K, 2-6 at 2)...barn is 30-288 (10%, $1.19 ROI) over the past five years with 2yos.

2. J T Kingfister (Exploit - Eastside Westside, by Eastern Echo)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foaled March 22, 2004 in Kentucky...full to stakes-winner Courageous Act (20-3-5-6, $257,081, 1-5 at 2)...sold for $37,000 as a yearling...sire won Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and San Vicente Stakes (4-4 at 2)...sire 67-502 (13%) with juveniles...dam sold for $42,000 as a yearling, and $130,000 as a juvenile...dam was multiple stakes-placed at 2 (12-1-2-2, $79,416, 1-6 at 2, won routing)...dam has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (1-4 with 2yos)...second dam was stakes-winner (114K, 0-3 at 2)...barn is 0-2 over the past five years with 2yos returning from a 31-60 day layoff while dropping into a maiden claimer.

3. Fortune Hunter (Unbridled's Song - Proper Dance, by Nureyev)
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
Foaled February 16, 2004 in Kentucky...out of one juvenile sale, withdrawn from another...sire won Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Florida Derby (2-3 at 2)...sire 92-453 (20%) with juveniles...dam was Grade 3-placed (22-4-4-5, $168,307, 2-7 at 2, all wins sprinting)...dam has foaled 2 winners from 5 runners (0-2 with 2yos)...dam a full to Group 1-placed juvenile Dancing Tribute (England), and Grade 3-placed Private Interview (144K)... dam half to Grade 2 winner Doneraile Court (361K, 2-5 at 2)...October 14 workout matches barn's 3yo filly Tinta (70 Beyer)...October 4 workout matches barn's 2yo Goleta Summit (48 Beyer), and barn's 2yo Mister Fusaichi (48 Beyer)...(September 22 work matches barn's 2yo filly Quick Response (finished 10th in September 30 maiden special weight at Turfway with 38 Beyer)...barn is 0-2 over the past five years with juveniles getting blinkers and Lasix for the first time while dropping into a maiden claimer.

4. Crafty Inventor (Crafty Prospector - Just Kiss Me Quick, by Candy Stripes)
Trainer: Niall O'Callaghan
Foaled April 19, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $45,000 as a yearling...sire placed in Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Handicap (2-3 at 2, won debut)...sire is 67-425 (16%) with juvenile firsters...dam went 14-2-0-2 for $28,757 (both wins routing)...this is dam's first foal...dam half to stakes-placed Golden Cherry (Japan)...October 16 workout matches barn's 2yo Power Hitter (finished 11th in maiden special weight career debut at Keeneland on October 22 with 52 Beyer)...barn is 1-47 (2%, $0.95 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

5. Regular Joe (Atticus - Racetrack Queen, by Manzotti)
Trainer: Dana Smith
Foaled February 1, 2004 in Kentucky...out of yearling sale...sire won Grade 1 Oaklawn Handicap (1-2 at 2)...sire is 20-151 (13%) with juveniles...dam went 11-0-0-1 for $1,264 (0-4 at 2, placed sprinting)...dam has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos)...dam a half to juvenile stakes-winner Wild Gear (104K, 4-7 at 2, all wins sprinting)...barn is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping from maiden special weight.

6. Preachinupastorm (Tiger Ridge - Miss Awesome, by Awesome Again)
Trainer: Scott Blasi
Foaled March 27, 2004 in Florida...sold for $50,000 as yearling...sire went 5-0-1-1 for $11,950...sire 44-270 (16%) with juveniles...dam sold for $8,500 as a yearling...dam went 13-2-3-1 for $50,079 (2-11 at 2, both wins sprinting)...this is dam's first foal...second dam was multiple stakes-winning sprinter (243K, 2-4 at 2, all wins sprinting)...barn is 2-2 (100%, $7.25 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles removing blinkers.

7. Albert the Elder (Albert the Great - Elderberry, by Roy)
Trainer: R Glen Mathieson
Foaled February 8, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $7,500 as yearling...sire won Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup (all wins routing)...sire 18-141 (13%) with juveniles...dam sold for $120,000 as a yearling...dam went 12-2-2-2 for $91,120 (both wins routing)...dam has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos)...dam half to Grade 3 juvenile Fistfite (158K, 2-5 at 2, all wins sprinting)...barn is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles dropping from maiden special weight.

8. Williamsburg Slew (Evansville Slew - Lena Lingard, by Procida)
Trainer: Andrew McKeever
Foaled May 11, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $6,500 as a yearling...sire won Grade 2 Arlington-Washington Futurity (5-6 at 2)...sire 45-293 (15%) with juveniles...dam went 7-1-0-1 for $7,499 (won sprinting)...dam has foaled 5 winners from 7 runners (1-6 with 2yos)...barn is 3-11 (27%, $9.29 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles.

9. Eat Your Words (Alphabet Soup - Jade Eyed, by Friendly Lover)
Trainer: Niall O'Callaghan
Foaled January 21, 2004 in Kentucky...withdrawn from weanling sale...sold for $30,000 as a yearling...sire won Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic...sire 40-361 (11%) with juveniles...dam was juvenile stakes-winner (4-2-1-0, $128,255 (all wins sprinting at 2, won debut)...this is dam's first foal...dam a full to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Touriga (26K, 0-4 at 2)...barn is 1-5 (20%, $1.40 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping from maiden special weight.

10. Twenty Amp (Lite the Fuse - Ioweyoutwenty, by Fappavalley)
Trainer: Barry Kirkham
Foaled March 31, 2004 in Florida...withdrawn from weanling sale...$9,500 short yearling RNA...$2,000 yearling RNA...half to multiple stakes-placed Mute Gingrich (52-2-5-11, $58,804, 2-7 at 2)...sire won Grade 1 Carter Handicap (twice, all wins sprinting)...sire 63-402 (16%) with juveniles...dam sold for $7,500 as a yearling, and $10,500 as a juvenile...dam was unraced...dam has foaled 3 winners from 5 runners (1-4 with 2yos)...barn is 0-2 over the past five years with juveniles dropping from maiden special weight.

11. Starwick (Forest Wildcat - Star of Wicklow, by Fast Play)
Trainer: Ralph Nicks
Foaled April 23, 2004 in Kentucky...$275,000 yearling RNA...half to Grade 2 turf winner Wild Heart Dancing (25-9-1-5, $597,641, 3-8 with 2yos, debut winner), and Grade 1 turf winner Man From Wicklow (31-6-4-5, $609,395, 0-3 at 2, all wins on grass)...sire won Grade 3 Maryland Breeders' Cup Handicap, Finger Lakes Breeders' Cup Stakes (2-5 at 2, all wins sprinting)...sire 33-230 (14%) with juvenile firsters...dam was unraced...dam has foaled 4 winners from 8 runners (3-7 with juveniles, 2 debut winners)...dam half to Grade 2-placed Tiger Tiger (103K, 0-4 at 2, all wins routing)...October 13 workout matches barn's 2yo Wham (65 Beyer)...September 28 work matches barn's 2yo Scat Thief (55 Beyer)...August 18 work matches barn's 2yo filly Dancin Boots (finished ninth in maiden special weight career debut on Turfway on September 21 with 29 Beyer), and 2yo filly Forensic Edge (finished fourth in maiden special weight career debut on turf at Kentucky Downs on September 19 with 52 Beyer)...barn is 3-37 (8%, $0.74 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

12. Kiln Creek (King Cugat - Rocky Top, by Septieme Ciel)
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
Foaled March 25, 2004 in Kentucky...sire won Grade 2 Jamaica Handicap, Arlington Classic Stakes, Bowling Green Handicap (2-4 at 2, all wins on turf)...sire 7-76 (9%) with juveniles...dam sold for $25,000 as a yearling...dam was 8-1-3-0 for $35,755 (0-4 at 2, all races sprinting)...dam has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (1-3 with juveniles)...barn is 0-8 over the past five years with juveniles adding blinkers for the first time.

Analysis:
KILN CREEK disappointed as the favorite when failing to change leads at Turfway, but the addition of blinkers may allow him to better focus on the task at hand. Barn is having an excellent meet, and their charge may sit a good stalking trip while clear of traffic trouble. ROLL ON ROLL ON was bothered at the break of Arkansas-bred stakes at Louisiana Downs, then made a nice 3 wide move on the turn before angling back to the rail for the stretch drive. He was late to change leads in the stretch, but rallied nicely in the lane, and galloped out several lengths past the winner. Switches to Bejarano, and wouldn't be a surprise. EAT YOUR WORDS found maiden special weights too tough at Hawthorne, but he previously earned a good Beyer over Polytrack, and will now make the important third start of the form cycle. FORTUNE HUNTER has plenty of angles in his corner. Not only will he add Lasix and blinkers for the first time, but he'll drop out of maiden special weights. He has speed, and should be prominent when they turn for home.

The Bet: Kiln Creek to Win (2-1 odds or more)

Race 5
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. Sexy Librarian (Theatrical - La Recherche, by Sky Classic)
Trainer: David Carroll
Foaled February 15, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $90,000 as a yearling...sire won Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf, Turf Classic Stakes, Man o' War Stakes, Bowling Green Handicap, Sword Dancer Handicap, Hialeah Turf Cup Handicap...sire is 16-93 (17%) with 2yo firsters...dam sold for $7,700 as weanling, $7,500 as yearling, and $13,500 as juvenile...dam was multiple stakes-winner on grass (21-7-4-1, $384K, 0-1 at 2, all wins on turf)...this is dam's first foal...September 25 workout matches barn's 3yo filly Kickin'the Clouds (82 Beyer)...barn is 6-42 (14%, $2.68 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

2. Wild Hoots (Unbridled's Song - Cahooters, by Storm Cat)
Trainer: William Mott
Foaled February 14, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $900,000 as short yearling...full to Grade 1 route winner Buddha (4-3-0-0, $489,600, 0-1 at 2)...sire won Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Florida Derby (2-3 at 2, won debut)...sire is 26-168 (15%) with 2yo firsters...dam was unraced...dam has foaled 6 winners from 7 runners (1-5 with 2yos, debut winner)...dam half to Grade 3 winner St. Forbes...October 22 workout matches barn's 3yo After Market (101 Beyer)...barn is 15-191 (8%, $0.85 ROI) over the past five years iwth juvenile firsters.

3. Secret Start (Jump Start - Trimline, by Caller I. D.)
Trainer: David Carroll
Foaled February 19, 2004 in Kentucky...withdrawn weanling sale...sold for $70,000 as yearling, and $50,000 as juvenile...half to juvenile stakes-winner Right On the Line (21-3-2-6, $72,386, 1-8 at 2, all wins sprinting), and juvenile stakes-placed J Star (13-2-4-2, $50,580, 1-7 at 2, won debut, both wins sprinting)...sire won Grade 2 Saratoga Special Stakes (2-5 at 2, won debut, all wins sprinting at 2)...sire is 2-35 (6%) with 2yo firsters...dam was unraced...dam has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (2-4 with 2yos, 1 debut winner)...dam half to multiple stakes-winner Ima Good Gamble (140K, 2-7 at 2)...October 18 workout matches barn's 3yo filly Cardigan (80 Beyer)...September 7 workout matches barn's 2yo Glackity Glack (ran ninth in maiden special weight career debut at Keeneland on October 14 with 52 Beyer)...barn is 6-42 (14%, $2.68 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

4. Island Shadows (Silver Charm - Quiet Broad, by Broad Brush)
Trainer: Grant Forster
Foaled March 24, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $10,000 as weanling...sire won Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Dubai World Cup (2-3 at 2)...sire is 9-107 (8%) with 2yo firsters...dam went 14-3-1-3 for $73,280 (0-3 at 2, all wins routing)...this is dam's first foal...dam a half to multiple Grade 1 winner Saint Liam ($4.4M, all wins routing), and Grade 3 winner Congressionalhonor (112K)...barn is 7-41 (17%, $3.32 ROI) with juvenile firsters.

5. Barefoot Baby (Petionville - Bayou Boots, by Storm Boot)
Trainer: Nick Canani
Foaled April 25, 2004 in Kentucky...sire won Grade 2 Ohio Derby (1-1 at 2)...sire is 11-164 (7%) with 2yo firsters...dam went 4-0-0-1 for $6,300 (0-1 at 2, placed routing)...this is dam's first foal...dam half to juvenile stakes-winner Haitian Vacation (153K, 2-6 at 2)...barn is 2-20 (10%, $3.20 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

6. Presidential Date (Deputy Commander - Muse One, by Shadeed)
Trainer: Akiko Gothard
Foaled February 23, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $22,000 as yearling...sire won Grade 1 Travers Stakes, Super Derby (all wins routing)...sire is 46-440 (10%) with 2yos...dam was unraced...dam has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos)...dam half to stakes-placed Letem Talk (133K), and multiple stakes-winner Endless Parade (114K, debut winner)...barn is 1-5 (20%, $13.60 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles.

7. Ringside Partner (Pure Prize - Corporate Spirit, by Corporate Report)
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Foaled February 18, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $5,000 as a yearling...sire won Grade 2 Kentucky Cup Classic Handicap (1-3 at 2, all wins routing)...sire is 15-61 (25%) with 2yos...dam sold for $40,000 as a yearling...dam was unraced...dam has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (0-3 with 2yos)...dam half to stakes-placed sprinter Deputy Em (88K, both wins sprinting)...October 17 workout matches barn's 2yo filly Hello Miss Lady (53 Beyer)...barn is 0-9 over the past five years with juveniles going second off a layoff.

8. Pitch a Victory (Victory Gallop - Hitaway, by Quiet American)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Foaled January 31, 2004 in Kentucky...withdrawn from weanling sale...half to stakes-placed Hitaway Jay (74-4-6-5, $23,502, 0-1 at 2, all wins sprinting), Group 1 winner Invincibility (Trinidad and Tobago), and juvenile stakes-placed Pitchacurve (18-3-1-3, $73,156, 1-4 at 2, won debut)... sold for $40,000 as yearling...sire won Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, Whitney Handicap (3-5 at 2)...sire is 13-105 (12%) with 2yo firsters...dam went 2-0-0-0 for $105 (0-2 at 2)...dam has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (1-2 with 2yos, debut winner)...dam half to Grade 3 winner Singh Tu, multiple stakes-placed R. B. Mccurry (97K, 1-1 at 2, both wins routing), and multiple stakes-winner Grau Madchen (237K, 4-8 at 2)...October 6 workout matches barn's 3yo Circle of Fire (72 Beyer)...September 29 workout matches barn's 3yo filly Traveling Alone (finished fourth in maiden special weight career debut on October 4 with 68 Beyer)...September 14, September 8 workouts match barn's 3yo filly C K Given (finished eighth in 'n2x' allowance at Turfway on September 22 with 51 Beyer)...August 22 workout matches barn's 2yo Willesden Green (finished sixth in maiden special weight career debut at Keeneland on October 20 with 66 Beyer)...barn is 9-116 (8%, $0.71 ROI) with juvenile firsters.

9. Farsi Strada (Awesome Again - Alda's Will, by Gallapiat)
Trainer: George Arnold II
Foaled March 24, 2004 in Kentucky...$45,000 yearling RNA...sire won Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic, Whitney Handicap (all wins routing)...sire is 7-106 (7%) with 2yo firsters...dam sold for $4,500 as a yearling...dam was stakes-winner (71-13-7-15, $143,172, 2-10 at 2)...dam has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos)...dam half to stakes-placed sprinter Wow Yao (49K, all wins sprinting)...October 12 workout matches barn's 3yo filly Southern Protocol (finished ninth in the Grade 3 Valley View on October 20 with a 74 Beyer)...barn is 8-72 (11%, $2.15 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

10. Eternal Life (Atticus - Conectis, by River Falls)
Trainer: Elwood McCann Sr.
Foaled April 5, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $5,000 as yearling...sire won Grade 1 Oaklawn Handicap (1-2 at 2)...sire is 7-56 (13%) with 2yo firsters...dam was stakes-winner on turf (28-3-6-3, $171,179, 1-9 at 2, all wins on turf)...this is dam's first foal...barn is 0-18 over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

11. Harmony Jane (Gulch - New Harmony, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer: Neil Howard
Foaled January 19, 2004 in Kentucky...sire won Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes, Futurity Stakes, Metropolitan Handicap (twice), Wood Memorial Invitational Stakes, Breeders' Cup Sprint, Carter Handicap (5-7 at 2)...sire is 111-816 (14%) with 2yos...dam was unraced...this is dam's first foal...dam is a half to stakes-placed Matriarch (107K), multiple Grade 2 winner Tricky Creek (873K, 2-5 at 2), multiple stakes-winner Wavering Girl (314K, 5-9 at 2), Grade 2 juvenile Speed Dialer (384K, 4-8 at 2), multiple stakes-placed Swiss Asset (331K, 0-1 at 2), stakes-winner Everhope (310K, 1-1 at 2), Grade 2 turfer Parade Ground (794K, 1-5 at 2), and Grade 2 winner Parade Leader (712K, 2-5 at 2)...barn is 22-158 (14%, $1.17 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles.

12. Meadowlanding (Meadowlake - Poage's Landing, by Herat)
Trainer: Hal Wiggins
Foaled March 23, 2004 in Kentucky...$19,000 yearling RNA...half to Grade 3 route winner Epic Honor (23-3-5-5, $341,960, 1-6 at 2)...sire won Grade 1 Arlington-Washington Futurity (2-2 at 2, all wins sprinting)...sire is 194-956 (20%) with 2yos...dam sold for $23,000 as yearling...dam went 11-0-0-0 for $342...dam has foaled 4 winners from 8 runners (1-4 with 2yos)...dam half to stakes-winning router Azi Lee (43K, 0-7 at 2), and Grade 3 winner Wild Gale (404K, 3-8 at 2)...October 21 workout matches barn's 3yo Gritty Gulch (81 Beyer)...barn is 11-74 (15%, $1.77 ROI) with second-time juveniles.

Analysis:
WILD HOOTS was the highest-priced short yearling at the Keeneland January 2005 sale, and the full sister to Grade 1 winner Buddha shows solid workouts in preparation for her career debut. Trainer Bill Mott can fire first-out, and this filly looks to have a nice future. SEXY LIBRARIAN's turf pedigree may play well over Polytrack, and trainer David Carroll shows a flat-bet profit with juvenile firsters over the past five years. Must deal with the rail post, but 7 furlongs shouldn't pose a problem for this stoutly-bred filly. FARSI STRADA's has a late-developing pedigree, but her works look pretty good, and trainer Rusty Arnold has a good record with first-time starters. SECRET START is bred for speed on both sides of his pedigree. HARMONY JANE has an experience edge over most of her rivals, and she ran into a runaway winner in Keeneland debut. Has already raced over this distance. PITCH A VICTORY has stamina pedigree, and seems well-prepped for debut.

The Bet: Wild Hoots - Sexy Librarian exacta, Wild Hoots - Farsi Strada exacta