10/09/2006 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for Wednesday

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! This meet should be a challenge for the 2-year-olds as many will race over Polytrack for the first time. I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile contest at the meet, and hopefully will improve on the profits made with "Spa Babies." Good luck!

Week 1 record (Starts - Wins - Profit Loss per $2 bet): 9-1-4, -$18

Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Race 2
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Claiming ($25,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $24,000

Analysis:
QUICK TRICK earned competitive Beyer Speed Figure graduating over Polytrack, and can work out a similar pace-tracking trip behind the speeds. Closers have done well over this course thus far, and Quick Trick may run them down late. OSTENACO earned the field's best last Beyer downing $40,000 maiden claimers at Arlington, but the layoff coupled with the drop in claiming price gives cause for pause. The $95,000 yearling purchase may be overbet. TAINTED MONEY looms the speed nearest the rail, and he was game fighting off next-out Mountaineer maiden special winner Bold Command. May face a good deal of pressure with speeds lined up to his outside. DANCE ON looked good going gate-to-wire at Calder, and it's great to see Bejarano grab the mount. He will likely have to rate after breaking from outside post. LAUGH A DAY was freshened after a grueling maiden score at Churchill Downs. Another that must deal with a wide post position.

The Bet: Quick Trick to Win (7-2 odds or more).

Race 6
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. Grace Happens (Aptitude - Woodman's Prize, by Prized)
Trainer: Bernard Flint
Foaled February 27, 2004...$17,000 RNA yearling...half to multiple stakes-placed Collateral Damage (39-6-5-5, $240,400, 2-5 at 2, won debut)...sire won Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, Hollywood Gold Cup (all wins routing, 0-5 at 2)...sire is 3-44 (7%) with juvenile firsters...dam went 1-0-0-0 (sprinted in the slop)...dam has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (1-4 with juveniles, debut winner)...dam a half to multiple stakes-placed Woodman's Kris (132K), and stakes-winner Camp on Wood (116K)...trainer is 14-113 (12%, $2.33 ROI) with juvenile firsters over the past five years.

2. Cabbage Key (A.P. Indy - Mayville's Magic, by Gone West)
Trainer: Neil Howard
Foaled March 13, 2004...$425,000 RNA yearling...sire won Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity, Breeders' Cup Classic, Belmont Stakes, Santa Anita Derby (3-4 at 2)...sire is 120-700 (17%) with juveniles...dam sold for $725,000 as a yearling...dam went 7-1-0-1 for $7,949 in England...this is dam's first foal...dam a half to Irish Group 2 winner Sportsworld, and British Grade 1-winning juvenile Gay Gallanta...trainer is 6-43 (14%, $0.93 ROI) with second-time juveniles over the past five years...October 7 work matches barn's 2-year-old filly Nickel Candy (58 Beyer top).

3. Lady Joanne (Orientate - Oatsee, by Unbridled)
Trainer: Carl Nafzger
Foaled March 27, 2004...sire won Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint, Forego Handicap (0-2 at 2)...half to multiple Grade 3 winner Baghdaria (11-5-0-3, $597,066, 2-4 at 2)...sire is 15-88 (17%) with juveniles...stakes-placed dam went 21-2-4-5 for $106,945 (0-6 at 2, both wins sprinting)...dam has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with juveniles)...second dam was multiple stakes-placed (110K, 1-5 at 2)...trainer is 9-43 (21%, $2.51 ROI) with second-time juveniles getting Lasix for the first time over the past five years...October 2 workout matches barn's 3-year-old Whirl (49 Beyer top).

4. Jezebid (Honor Glide - Parting Bid, by Spectacular Bid)
Trainer: Robert Donato
Foaled May 24, 2004...half to stakes-winning juvenile sprinter Departing Now (30-7-2-7, $202,279, 2-5 at 2, won debut)...sire won Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes, Sword Dancer Invitational (all wins on turf)...sire is 0-6 with juvenile firsters...dam sold for $4,800 as a weanling, and for $7,200 as a yearling...dam went 4-0-0-0 for $2,090...dam has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (3-3 with juveniles, 1 debut winner)...trainer is 0-4 with juvenile firsters over the past five years.

5. Brilliant Beauty (Touch Gold - Robust, by Conquistador Cielo)
Trainer: Robert Holthus
Foaled March 3, 2004...sold for $15,000 as yearling...sire won Grade 1 Haskell Invitational, Belmont Stakes (1-4 at 2)...sire is 53-362 (15%) with juvenile firsters...dam went 3-0-0-0 in England...dam has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with juveniles)...dam a half to multiple Grade 1 winner Danzig Connection (1M, 3-8 at 2), and Grade 2 winner Roi Danzig (325K)...trainer is 7-48 (15%, $1.38 ROI) with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs over the past five years.

6. Chippewa Court (Doneraile Court - Chippewa Falls, by Navajo)

Trainer: David England
Foaled February 27, 2004...sire won Grade 2 Jerome Handicap (2-5 at 2)...sire is 52-360 (14%) with juveniles...dam went 75-13-11-11 for $108,189...dam has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (0-4 with juveniles)...dam a half to stakes-placed De Medici (61K, 2-7 at 2)...trainers is 1-28 (4%, $0.59 ROI) with juveniles over the past five years).

7. Meadowlanding (Meadowlake - Poage's Landing, by Herat)
Trainer: Hal Wiggins
Foaled March 23, 2004...$19,000 RNA yearling...half to Grade 3 winner Epic Honor (23-3-5-5, $341,960, 1-6 at 2)...sire won Grade 1 Arlington-Washington Futurity (all wins sprinting, 2-2 at 2)...sire is 61-310 (20%) with juvenile firsters...dam cost $23,000 as a yearling...dam went 11-0-0-0 for $342...dam has foaled 4 winners from 7 runners (1-3 with juveniles)...dam half to stakes-winning router Azi Lee (43K, 0-7 at 2), and Grade 3-winning juvenile Wild Gale (404K, 3-8 at 2)...trainer is 4-78 (5%, $0.52 ROI) with juvenile firsters over the past five years.

8. Mike's Honey Bunny (Judge T C - Cecilia's Choice, by Homebuilder)
Trainer: Gary Hartlage
Foaled April 18, 2004...sold for $70,000 as juvenile...sire won Grade 2 Fayette Stakes (3-6 at 2)...sire is 74-696 (11%) with juveniles...dam sold for $13,000 as a yearling...stakes-placed dam went 30-7-3-4 for $75,510 (0-3 at 2)...dam has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with juveniles, debut winner)...dam a full to stakes-placed juvenile Amacarpenter (27K, 1-4 at 2, both wins on turf)...trainer is 0-1 with juveniles going route to sprint over the past five years.

9. Gilded Heart (Gilded Time - Heart Beats True, by Cherokee Run)
Trainer: Vince White
Foaled March 4, 2004...sold for $20,000 as a yearling...sire won Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (4-4 at 2)...sire is 154-1010 (15%) with juveniles...dam sold for $52,000 as yearling, and for $60,000 as juvenile...dam went 9-2-1-1 for $61,289 (all races sprinting)...this is dam's first foal...dam half to Grade 2 winner Recoup the Cash (1M, 0-2 at 2), and stakes-winner Up With the Flag (244K, 1-1 at 2)...trainer is 0-5 with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs over the past five years.

10. Final Refrain (Lion Cavern - Tidy Tune, by The Minstrel)
Trainer: Albert Stall Jr.
Foaled March 19, 2004...$10,000 RNA short yearling...half to stakes-placed Fully Attuned, multiple stakes-placed Fejo (37-3-4-6, $27,642, 0-6 at 2, all wins routing), multiple stakes-placed juvenile Miesque's Encore (28-4-7-5, $117,768, 1-6 at 2)...full to multiple stakes-placed Tigron (in France, 0-6 at 2)...sire won Grade 2 True North Handicap (2-5 at 2 on grass in Europe)...sire is 12-132 (9%) with juveniles...dam was unraced...dam has foaled 10 winners from 13 runners (2-8 with juveniles)...dam half to stakes-winner Bold Navy (85K), multiple Group 3-placed Soigneuse (France and Italy), stakes-winner Trim Colony (247K, 2-5 at 2), and stakes-placed turfer Tidy Colony (186K, 0-1 at 2)...trainer is 6-55 (11%, $1.49 ROI) with second-time juveniles over the past five years...September 27 work matches barn's 3-year-old Hurrah (finished eighth in N1X on turf at Keeneland on October 8 with 72 Beyer).

11. Deputy Princess (Sir Deputy - Notable Legend, by Notebook)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Foaled April 17, 2004...sire won Swynford Stakes (2-2 at 2, both wins sprinting)...half to stakes-winner Passive Income (11-2-5-0, $99,300, 1-4 at 2, won debut)...sire is 40-292 (14%) with juvenile firsters...dam sold for $33,000 as weanling, and for $92,000 as yearling...dam was unraced...dam has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (won debut at 2)...dam a full to multiple stakes-winner Unruled (638K, 1-4 at 2, won debut)...dam a half to multiple stakes-winner Boy Genius (464K, 1-4 at 2)...trainer is 95-399 (24%, $1.72 ROI) with juvenile firsters over the past five years.

12. Evening Dazzle (Mutakddim - Saluki, by Hennessy)
Trainer: Niall O'Callaghan
Foaled March 7, 2004...sold for $60,000 as a yearling...sire won John of Gaunt Stakes in England (1-3 at 2)...sire is 28-145 (19%) with juvenile firsters...dam sold for $350,000 as yearling, and for $350,000 as a juvenile...dam went 9-1-3-2 for $42,405 (0-1 at 2, won sprinting)...dam has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (lost at 2)...dam half to stakes-placed juvenile Miss Maddie Puff (28K, 0-5 at 2)...trainer is 1-46 (2%, $0.97 ROI) with juvenile firsters over the past five years...October 5 workout matches barn's 2-year-old Move Aside (30 Beyer)...September 27 work matches barn's 2-year-old Jonsie's Hero (finished ninth in maiden special weight debut at Turfway on September 30 with 40 Beyer), 2-year-old Give Me a Sign (finished ninth in maiden special weight career debut at Hawthorne on September 30 with 26 Beyer), 5-year-old Golden Trip (finished sixth in N3X on turf at Keeneland on October 6 with 89 Beyer), 5-year-old Summer Book (finished fourth in Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup on September 30 with 84 Beyer), and 2-year-old Eastern Fever (finished ninth in maiden special at Hawthorne on September 30 with 40 Beyer).

Analysis:
CHIPPEWA COURT improved her Beyer Speed Figure by 18 points from first to second start, and she has valuable experience over the Polytrack. She has some stalking ability, and figures to be gearing up on the turn. FINAL REFRAIN gave a nice account of herself on grass at Saratoga, and the turf-to-Polytrack move has been very powerful at the meet. Gets a major rider switch for this, and should prove a strong contender. MIKE'S HONEY BUNNY cuts back in distance after facing runaway winner and may prove the main speed. CABBAGE KEY is nicely-bred, and should be tighter for second lifetime start. LADY JOANNE gets Lasix for second start - a powerful angle in maiden races - and she should appreciate the extra distance. Both GRACE HAPPENS and DEPUTY PRINCESS go out for excellent first-out barns. Neither would be a surprise in a contentious heat.

The Bet: Chippewa Court to Win (7-2 odds or more).