10/19/2006 12:00AM

Keeneland Babies for Thursday

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! This meet should be a challenge for the 2-year-olds as many will race over Polytrack for the first time. I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile contest at the meet, and hopefully will improve on the profits made with "Spa Babies." Good luck!

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Race 1
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($30,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $19,000

Analysis:
FITTIPALDI doesn't need to have Formula 1 speed to win this maiden claiming event. He shows the turf-to-dirt angle that has been so successful at this meet, drops out of maiden special weights for the first time, and may show good speed going two sprints to a route. Solid workouts over Polytrack indicate that this half-brother to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Willowbrook Lane (469K in earnings) is ready for a winning effort. STEPHENWILLGETUEVEN made up late ground in maiden special weight at Louisiana Downs, and has valuable route experience. Half to stakes-placed Behind the Bluff (121K) has the right style for this racetrack. DEACON GRAY made up ground over closer-friendly surface at Turfway on October 9, but owns competitive Beyer Speed Figures, and slowly seems to be figuring the game out. Half to stakes-winning router Dignified Donovan (376K), and Grade 1 juvenile winner Awesome Humor is eligible for better. STIVALETTO also goes turf-to-Polytrack, and adds blinkers for the first time. McPeek has sent out some live runners at the meet, and it's nice to see Bejarano take the mount

The Bet: Fittipaldi to Win (7-2 odds or more)

Race 2
6 1/2 Furlongs Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
CONCINNOUS is kin to four winners including juvenile debut winner Wild as Elle, and although her dam was stakes-placed on turf in France, she also won sprinting on the main track. Barn's lone juvenile debut runner over the past five years finished second at Mountaineer a week ago. MOMMA KATE is the first foal from multiple stakes-placed Dixie Kitten (110K, juvenile debut winner). Officer has gotten out to a fast start with his juvenile firsters (8-27), and this filly cost $100,000 earlier this year. TOTAL ran well as a "Spa Baby" selection for her debut, but she wasn't able to take advantage of a speed-favoring track that day, and now must deal with a layoff and a 1 1/2 furlong stretchout. The half to Grade 3-placed juvenile Barrier out of stakes-winner Limit (84K) is certainly logical on form, but may not offer much value. SPARTAN QUEEN goes out for excellent 2-year-old outfit, and she may give Total a run for her money on the front end. Hasn't gained ground from the stretch call to the wire in her career, and must deal with added distance. BE GOLDEN didn't have easy trip in debut when off slowly, and rushed up to contest a hot pace from the rail. She adds Lasix for her second start, and that's a powerful angle in maiden races. MAMBO ROSE had miserable trip at Turfway. She was hung wide going into the first turn, then made a premature move down the backstretch. She figures to be rallying into a solid pace, and shouldn't be ignored.

The Bet: Concinnous to Win and Place (8-1 odds or more)

Race 7
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Allowance (N1X)
2-year-olds
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
HEY BILL was lightly-bumped going into the first turn of his runner-up effort at Turfway two back, then raced in between horses for most of the backstretch before angling widest turning for home. He couldn't run down favored Shore that day, but finished ahead of subsequent Kentucky Cup Juvenile winner U D Ghetto. Hey Bill didn't have an easy trip in the Kentucky Cup, sheds the blinkers, and figures to be running late. DAN MCGREW dominated maidens at Kentucky Downs, and turf runners have done very well switching to Polytrack. He has tactical speed and a good deal of natural ability, and looms the main danger. SHIPMATE went gate-to-wire in first two-turn, and first Polytrack start. May face pace pressure from SAM P., KON KRETE KID, and CAPTAIN RAY. SAM P. won the faster division of maiden special weights at Saratoga on August 19 when overcoming a closer-biased track, then was simply overmatched in the Grade 2 Futurity. Finds a logical spot for the always-dangerous Pletcher barn.

The Bet: Hey Bill to Win (7-2 odds or more)

Race 9
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
IRON BUTTERFLY's dam was a multiple stakes-winner of over 231K, and trainer Pat Biancone is fantastic with juvenile firsters. Draws outside, and might find a nice attack position from stalking range. MEGAN DA LYNN is bred for speed on both sides of the pedigree, and her Polytrack workouts look pretty good. The dam was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter in California (329K). Worth a play at a price. GEM SLEUTH just missed in career debut at Turfway, and looks to have some potential. Half to Grade 3-placed juvenile Glittergem seems the best of those that have raced. VICTORIANNA improved greatly in first start over Polytrack, and she figures to have a say in the pace along with THUNDER AND BELLE. Victorianna is a half to Grade 2 sprinters Miss Indy Anna and Time Limit. STRIKING TOMISUE had trouble over speed-favoring Saratoga surface in career debut. Switches to Gomez, and should get a nice pace setup here.

The Bet: Iron Butterfly - Megan Da Lynn exacta, Iron Butterfly - Gem Sleuth exacta.