10/19/2006 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for Saturday

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! This meet should be a challenge for the 2-year-olds as many will race over Polytrack for the first time. I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile contest at the meet, and hopefully will improve on the profits made with "Spa Babies." Good luck!

Saturday, October 21, 2006

Race 2
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
ELUSIVE MELODY is a half to Grade 3 router Unbridled Hope (272K), Grade 2-placed juvenile Silent Fred (215K), and stakes-winning sprinter Forestier (195K, juvenile debut winner), and her sire does very well with firsters. The dam was a stakes-winning sprinter (145K), and Elusive Melody shows some very quick works over the track. Expect good things from this 450K yearling purchase. QUEEN OF DIAMONDS is the first foal to race out of multiple stakes-winner Time to Meet (223K, juvenile debut winner), and the 70K yearling (RNA) goes out for above-average debut barn. Should steer clear of traffic trouble breaking from far outside post. MS. SABBATICAL goes out for the hot McPeek barn, and that 46 and change bullet out of the gate here on October 12 really catches the eye. Originally sold for 40K as a weanling, but went for 65K last year. Don't be surprised if she shows speed. TIZ MY DREAM worked well out of the gate here on September 30, and the 20K weanling (RNA) is the first foal from the multiple stakes-winning mare (281K, juvenile winner). LADY CORREDOR raced wide in debut after breaking from far outside post. The dam is kin to a graded winner on turf, and Lady Corredor has the experience edge over most of her rivals. GOLDEN POSSUM is the first foal from turf stakes-winning dam (165K). Shows quick gate work over Polytrack.

The Bet: Elusive Melody - Queen of Diamonds exacta, Elusive Melody - Ms. Sabbatical exacta

Race 5
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
After being bought back for 70K as a weanling, and 65K as a yearling, VOULEZ VOUS sold for a whopping 775K after working a furlong in 10 seconds flat. We know she's fast, and although Pat Biancone doesn't usually debut them with Lasix, he does excel with firsters. There's a lot of turf blood in this pedigree, and that may translate well to Polytrack. SASSY faced Arlington Lassie winner Lisa M in career debut, then tackled Frizette heroine Sutra in second lifetime start. She was the beaten favorite in both of those races, and may have finally found her spot. TACTICAL is bred for speed on both sides of the pedigree, and she showed good early foot going two turns last time out. Should appreciate dropping back in distance here, and the barn does great work with young horses. FORENSIC EDGE raced evenly in career debut on the lawn at Kentucky Downs, and should sit a good stalking trip while racing clear of trouble. Stakes-winning dam (232K) preferred the main track. D'ORO DOLL improved in first start over Polytrack, and her closing style plays well over this track. Second-time Lasix user goes out for hot barn, and is a half to Grade 3-placed White Socks.

The Bet: Voulez Vous - Sassy exacta, Voulez Vous - Tactical exacta

Race 6
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-olds
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
IRISH DREAMER didn't get a clear run when beaten a neck in Hawthorne optional claimer. Bargain yearling cut his teeth in a pair of stakes races this year, and has the early speed to find a good spot for the backstretch run. MEET AT JACKS earned big number in game debut score, but he was weaving all over the track in the stretch, and will now have to stretch out a furlong. He figures to face more pace pressure in this spot. FAST N READY was in over his head in the Saratoga Special, but previous start at the Spa yielded runaway maiden score. Must deal with short layoff, and may have to rate here. QUIETLY MINE showed strong closing kick to break maiden on grass, and turf horses have done well at the meet switching to Polytrack. This barn has sent out nothing but live runners here.

The Bet: Irish Dreamer to Win (5-2 odds or more)