10/13/2006 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for Saturday

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! This meet should be a challenge for the 2-year-olds as many will race over Polytrack for the first time. I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile contest at the meet, and hopefully will improve on the profits made with "Spa Babies." Good luck!

Saturday, October 14, 2006

Race 2
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

1. Gun It (Jump Start - Come On Louise, by Iron Courage)
Trainer: Harvey Vanier
Foaled March 4, 2004 in Kentucky...half to multiple Grade 3-placed turfer Come On Jazz (27-5-6-4, $219,595, 0-6 at 2, all wins on turf)...sire won Grade 2 Saratoga Special (2-5 at 2, both wins sprinting, all races at 2)...sire is 11-77 (14%) with juveniles...dam went 13-2-1-3 for $57,860 (both wins routing)...dam has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (0-4 with juveniles)...trainer is 1-10 (10%, $8.18 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles getting Lasix for the first time.

2. Allensworth (Prized - Castries, by Air Forbes Won)
Trainer: Charles Dickey
Foaled April 18, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $5,700 as a yearling...sire won Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf, San Luis Rey Stakes (2-4 at 2)...sire is 70-546 (13%) with juveniles...dam went 24-4-5-1 for $40,995 (1-6 at 2, all wins sprinting)...this is dam's first foal...dam a half to Japanese stakes-placed runner Eishin Missouri, and multiple turf stakes-placed Show Off (149K)...barn is 0-5 over the past five years with juveniles returning from 61-180 day layoffs.

3. Triple Nine Fine (Maria's Mon - Amaretta, by Woodman)
Trainer: Anthony Reinstedler
Foaled February 15, 2004 in Kentucky...$45,000 RNA yearling...sold for $75,000 as a juvenile...sire won Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, Futurity Stakes (4-5 at 2)...sire is 80-629 (13%) with juveniles...dam cost $105,000 as a weanling, and $75,000 as a juvenile...dam was Grade 3-placed (14-3-1-0, $116,480, 1-3 at 2, all wins on turf)...this is dam's first foal...trainer is 13-168 (8%, $0.99 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles.

4. Wolf Pen Lane (Twining - Sarabi, by Lost Code)
Trainer: Walter Bindner Jr.
Foaled March 1, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $30,000 as a short yearling...$22,000 RNA juvenile...half to Grade 3 winner Coconut Girl (21-5-3-4, $277,166)...sire won Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes, Withers Stakes...sire is 119-760 (16%) with juveniles...dam sold for $38,000 as a yearling, and $70,000 as a juvenile...dam went 8-2-1-3 for $57,460...dam has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (0-4 with 2yos)...dam half to multiple stakes-placed Askrawhy (254K, 1-5 at 2)...barn is 0-7 over the past five years with second-time juveniles receiving blinkers for the first time.

5. Bye Yawl (El Corredor - Sami's Proud Squaw, by Birdonthewire)
Trainer: Ronny Werner
Foaled January 23, 2004 in Florida...sold for $90,000 as a yearling, and $250,000 as a juvenile...sire won Grade 1 Cigar Mile (1-2 at 2)...sire is 5-56 (9%) with juvenile firsters...stakes-winning dam went (11-5-3-0, $86,459, 4-4 at 2, all wins sprinting)...dam has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner...trainer is 20-125 (16%, $1.40 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

6. Sly (Elusive Quality - Stormin Cat, by Storm Cat)
Trainer: Paul McGee
Foaled April 6, 2004 in Kentucky...sire won Grade 3 Jaipur Handicap, Poker Handicap...sire is 60-320 (19%) with juveniles...dam went 16-3-2-0 for $67,390 (0-2 at 2, all wins sprinting)...dam has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos)...dam half to stakes-winner Stormy Diplomat (194K, 0-3 at 2), and multiple stakes-winner Thisnearlywasmine (291K, 2-7 at 2, all wins sprinting)...trainer is 7-55 (13%, $1.10 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from a 31-60 day layoff.

7. Felonious Monk (West Acre - Skip Bail, by Skip Trial)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Foaled March 13, 2004 in Florida...sold for $8,000 as a weanling, $9,000 as a yearling, and for $30,000 as a juvenile...sire was unraced...sire is 45-188 (24%) with juveniles...dam cost $16,000 as a yearling...dam went 21-4-3-1 for $23,308 (0-3 at 2)...this is dam's first foal...October 7 workout matches up with barn's 3-year-old He Loves Me Not (79 Beyer top)...dam half to Grade 3 winner Northern Lance (139K, 0-5 at 2)...trainer is 17-95 (18%, $1.98 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles.

8. Storm Force (Storm Cat - Especially, by Mr. Prospector)
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
Foaled January 30, 2004 in Kentucky...half to Grade 2 winner Boston Common (33-12-8-4, $609,317, 2-6 at 2)...full to Grade 3 winner Storm Surge (20-5-3-4, $433,897, 4-7 at 2)...sire won Grade 1 Young America Stakes (3-6 at 2)...sire is 257-1051 (24%) with juveniles...dam went 10-2-3-0 for $58,470 (0-1 at 2, both wins sprinting)...dam has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (2-5 with juveniles)...September 27 workout matches barn's 2-year-old First Degree (70 Beyer)...September 19 workout matches barn's 2-year-old filly Storm Breeze (finished eighth in maiden special weight at Keeneland on October 12 with 54 Beyer)...September 11 workout matches barn's 3-year-old Battle Ridge (finished second in 'n1x' allowance at Turfway on September 15 with 81 Beyer)...August 27 workout matches barn's 2-year-old Holy Armenia (finished third in maiden special weight at Turfway on September 23 with 66 Beyer)...dam half to multiple Grade 3 winner Blacksburg (412K, 3-8 at 2), stakes-placed turfer Wendy's Daughter (133K), multiple Japanese stakes-winner Hishi Natalie (0-1 at 2)...trainer is 1-12 (8%, $0.87 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles receiving Lasix for the first time off 61-180 day layoff.

9. Point of Reason (Forest Camp - Pretty Reason, by Fly So Free)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Foaled April 27, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $150,000 as a yearling, and for $825,000 as a juvenile...half to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Within Reason (6-3-1-0, $120,577, 2-3 at 2)...sire won Grade 2 Del Mar Futurity (2-4 at 2, won debut)...sire is 10-47 (21%) with juvenile firsters...dam was unraced...dam has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos)...August 29, August 21, August 14, August 7 works match barn's 2-year-old Any Given Saturday (won career debut at Turfway in maiden special weight on September 15 with 71 Beyer)...dam half to stakes-placed Elaines Reason (208K, 1-3 at 2), and stakes-placed sprinter Kentucky Maid (68K, both wins sprinting)...trainer is 95-401 (24%, $1.71 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

10. Wisp (Quiet American - Softly, by Binalong)
Trainer: Carl Nafzger
Foaled April 20, 2004 in Kentucky...sire won Grade 1 NYRA Mile (0-1 at 2)...sire is 102-835 (12%) with juveniles...dam was Grade 2 winner (16-6-1-4 for $373,783, 0-2 at 2, all wins routing)...this is dam's first foal...second dam was stakes-placed (120K, 0-3 at 2)...barn is 10-41 (24%, $2.13 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs.

11. Precautionary (Cherokee Run - Caveat Competor, by Caveat)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foaled April 28, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $105,000 as a short yearling, $60,000 as a yearling, and for $100,000 as a juvenile...sire won Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint (5-7 at 2)...sire is 135-826 (16%) with juveniles...dam was Grade 3 winner (18-6-2-3 for $183,405, 1-5 at 2)...this is dam's first foal...October 5 workout matches barn's 2-year-old Fast N Ready (75 Beyer)...dam half to stakes-placed Emperor Tigere (308K, 0-2 at 2)...barn is 0-2 over the past five years with juveniles getting blinkers for the first time off at 31-60 day layoff with a trainer switch.

12. Move Aside (Carson City - American Profile, by Summer Squall)
Trainer: Niall O'Callaghan
Foaled April 24, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $20,000 as a yearling...sire won Grade 2 Sapling Stakes, Fall Highweight Handicap (2-5 at 2)...sire is 290-1425 (20%) with juveniles...dam was unraced...dam has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos)...October 9 workout matches barn's 2-year-old filly Sonorous (64 Beyer)...Ocotber 5 workout matches barn's 2-year-old filly Evening Dazzle (finished seventh in career debut maiden special weight at Keeneland on October 11 with 37 Beyer)...dam a full to stakes-winning turfer Summer Bet (117K, 0-2 at 2, all wins on turf)...dam a half to Grade 1 winning juvenile A.P. Valentine (864K, 2-4 at 2)...barn is 3-30 (10%, $0.89 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles.

Analysis:
POINT OF REASON worked one furlong in 10.40 prior to selling for a whopping $825,000 in February. Sire gets precocious babies, and the Pletcher barn is phenomenal first-out. This one should show some speed. SLY just missed in first start with Lasix, and his Beyers make him a dangerous contender in this spot. Figures to be in contention when the field turns for home. TRIPLE NINE FIVE goes turf-to-Polytrack - a potent angle this meet - and has the early speed to lead these from the opening bell. Goes out for underrated connections, and the Beyers are inching the right way. WISP has been given time since his last effort, and the track has played to his late-running style. BYE YAWL sold for $250,000 earlier this year, shows excellent workouts, and debuts for very good first-out barn.

The Bet: Point of Reason to Win (2-1 odds or more)

Race 10
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

1. No Trippin (Trippi - Norika, by Lucky North)
Trainer: Steve Hobby
Foaled March 15, 2004 in Florida...sold for $20,000 as a yearling, and $75,000 as a juvenile...sire won Grade 1 Vosburgh...sire is 12-60 (20%) with juvenile firsters...dam went 18-2-4-0 for $32,763 (2-11 at 2, both wins sprinting)...dam foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (1-2 with juveniles)...dam half to stakes-winner Megacles (56-7-10-10, $271,289, 2-7 at 2)...trainer is 2-34 (6%, $0.92 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

2. Takedown (Point Given - Little Sister, by Valid Appeal)
Trainer: Scott Blasi
Foaled April 17, 2004 in Kentucky...$45,000 yearling RNA...half to stakes-placed sprinter Spoiled (5-1-2-0, $50,327, 1-3 at 2, won debut sprinting)...sire won Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity, Haskell Invitational, Belmont Stakes, Preakness Stakes, Travers Stakes, Santa Anita Derby (3-6 at 2)...sire is 6-34 (18%) with juvenile firsters...dam cost $125,000 as a yearling...dam was a Grade 3 winner (38-17-8-5, $720,568, 2-4 at 2, won debut, all wins sprinting)...dam has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1 debut winner)...dam a full to juvenile stakes-winner Miss Valid Pache (166K, 2-7 at 2, won debut, all wins sprinting), multiple Grade 3 winner Valid Expectations (596K, 4-7 at 2), juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Littleexpectations (205K, 4-4 at 2, all wins sprinting), multiple stakes-placed sprinter Baby Expectations (60K, 2-4 at 2, both wins sprinting)...dam a half to stakes-placed sprinter Copelan's Pache (193K, 2-4 at 2, won debut), and Grade 3-placed juvenile sprinter (Red Apache (95K, both wins sprinting)...October 3 workout matches barn's 2yo filly Tres Dream (finished fourth in Keeneland maiden special weight on October 7 with 58 Beyer)...September 18, August 13 works match barn's 2yo Ostenaco (won 40K maiden claimer at Arlington on August 23 with 68 Beyer, finished sixth in 25K claimer on October 11 at Keeneland with 42 Beyer)...August 28 workout matches barn's 2yo Sam Black Church (finished third in career debut in Keeneland maiden special weight on October 8 with 54 Beyer)...August 21 workout matches barn's 2yo Preachinupastorm (finished third in 30K maiden claimer at Turfway on September 8 with 58 Beyer)...trainer is 4-47 (9%, $0.80 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles firsters.

3. Winyah (Mutakddim - Moon Pie, by Theatrical)
Trainer: Ralph Nicks
Foaled April 23, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $27,000 as a short yearling, and $37,000 as a yearling...half to stakes-placed juvenile Grey Approval (16-3-2-3, $23,578, 0-2 at 2)...sire won John of Gaunt Stakes on turf in England (1-3 at 2)...sire is 72-436 (17%) with juveniles...dam sold for $35,000 as a yearling...dam went 7-0-2-1 for $13,057...dam has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (0-5 with 2yos)...dam half to multiple stakes-winner Meringue Pie (234K)...October 2 workout matches barn's 2yo Independent Banker (finished seventh with 47 Beyer in turf 'n2l' allowance at Keeneland on October 7)...September 17, September 25 works match barn's 2yo Razor Cat (42 Beyer)...trainer is 5-26 (19%, $2.45 ROI) with second-time juveniles over the past five years.

4. Westwon (Gone West - Biogio's Rose, by Polish Numbers)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Foaled January 27, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $575,000 as a yearling...sire won Grade 1 Dwyer Stakes (1-4 at 2)...sire is 93-501 (19%) with juveniles...dam was a multiple Grade 3 winner (52-16-9-8, $797,959, 3-5 at 2)...dam has foaled 0 winners from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos)...dam a half to multiple stakes-winner Biogio's Baby (177K, 2-6 at 2)...dam a full to stakes-placed Citizenship (132K, 0-1 at 2)...October 3 workout matches barn's 2yo Stormin Normandy (58 Beyer)...barn is 91-752 (12%, $0.99 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners.

5. Big Chief (Cherokee Run - Deputy Jane West, by Silver Deputy)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Foaled March 15, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $170,000 as a short yearling, and $250,000 as a yearling...half to multiple stakes-winner Bag Lady Jane (10-4-0-3, $233,736, 2-2 at 2), and multiple stakes-winner Deputy Storm (11-4-2-0, $183,465, 2-4 at 2, all wins sprinting)...sire won Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint (5-7 at 2)...sire is 135-826 (16%) with juveniles...dam sold for $29,000 as a juvenile...dam was a multiple stakes-winner (17-9-5-0, $593,410, 3-5 at 2)...dam has foaled 3 winners from 6 runners (2-5 with juveniles)...barn is 17-95 (18%, $1.98 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles.

6. Glackity Glack (Smoke Glacken - Unacceptable, by Irish Tower)
Trainer: David Carroll
Foaled February 23, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $110,000 as a yearling...half to multiple Italian stakes-placed 2yo Karen Sweet...full to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Ms. Glacken (9-2-3-1, $49,328, 2-5 at 2, won debut, both wins sprinting)...sire won Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes (4-6 at 2)...sire is 32-177 (18%) with juvenile firsters...dam sold for $25,000 as a weanling, and $75,000 as a juvenile...dam was a Grade 3 winner at 2 (7-3-3-2, $140,421, 2-3 at 2, won debut, all wins sprinting)...dam has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (2-3 with juveniles, 1 debut winner)...September 14 workout matches barn's 3yo filly For Always (finished ninth with 67 Beyer in 'n2x' optional claimer on turf at Kentucky Downs on September 19)...barn is 6-40 (15%, $2.82 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

7. Our Sacred Honor (Honour and Glory - Cindy's Quest, by Storm Cat)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Foaled January 30, 2004 in Kentucky...sire won Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap (2-4 at 2, won debut)...full to juvenile stakes-winner Honor the Flag (9-3-2-2, $64,890, 2-2 at 2, all wins sprinting)...sire is 30-232 (13%) with juvenile firsters...dam went 16-1-7-1 for $62,876 (won routing)...dam has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (2-2 with 2yos, 1 debut winner)...second dam is Grade 1 turf winner Miss Josh (758K)...October 8 work matches barn's 2yo Any Given Saturday (71 Beyer)...many works match barn's 2yo filly Half A.P. (finished third with 59 Beyer in maiden special weight debut on October 7)...September 25 workout matches barn's 2yo Base Commander (finshed second with 79 Beyer in maiden special weight debut on September 30 at Turfway)...August 21, August 14 workout match barn's 2yo filly Deputy Princess (finished 10th with 33 Beyer in maiden special weight debut at Keeneland on October 11)...at Keeneland on barn is 90-364 (25%, $1.79 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters).

8. Brilliant Bid (Glitterman - Baldski's Finesse, by Clever Trick)
Trainer: William Connelly
Foaled February 24, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $60,000 as a yearling, and $130,000 as a juvenile...sire won Grade 3 Philadelphia Park Breeders' Cup Handicap...sire is 156-932 (17%) with juveniles...dam went 11-0-2-3 for $15,196 (0-4 at 2)...dam has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos)...dam a half to Grade 3 winner Illeria (392K, 3-6 at 2, all wins sprinting), and multiple Japanese stakes-winner Miracle Time...barn is 20-148 (14%, $2.11 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners.

9. Red Falcon (Johannesberg - Battle Duchess, by Seattle Slew)
Trainer: James Brookfield
Foaled February 10, 2004 in Kentucky...sire won Grade/Group 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Phoenix Stakes, Prix Morny, Middle Park Stakes (7-7 at 2)...sire is 12-84 (14%) with juveniles...dam was a stakes-winner (20-7-2-4, $88,082)...dam has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos)...barn is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles following a trainer switch.

10. Phil the Power (Red Bullet - Miss Amy R, by Deputy Minister)
Trainer: David Vance
Foaled June 4, 2004 in Kentucky...sold for $60,000 as a weanling...$50,000 RNA yearling...sire won Grade 1 Preakness Stakes...half to European stakes-winning hurdler Mutineer...sire is 1-12 (8%) with juvenile firsters...dam sold for $175,000 as a yearling...dam went 13-2-3-2 for $53,426 (1-3 at 2, both wins routing)...dam has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (0-2 with 2yos)...dam a half to stakes-winner Glorious Reason (53K), and French Group 3-juvenile winner Glory Forever...barn is 1-52 (2%, $0.32 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

11. Gold Sterling (Touch Gold - Demons Cloud, by Demons Begone)
Trainer: Robert Holthus
Foaled April 7, 2004 in Florida...sold for $4,500 as a yearling...sire won Grade 1 Haskell Invitational, Belmont Stakes (1-4 at 2, won debut)...sire is 14-148 (9%) with juvenile firsters...dam was a stakes-winner (15-4-5-2, $138,850, 1-3 at 2, all wins on turf)...dam has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with juveniles)...dam a half to stakes-placed juvenile Painted Warning (154K, 1-7 at 2)...barn is 9-107 (8%, $1.04 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

12. Matsibi (Kelly Kip - Susan Do Good, by Allen's Prospect)
Trainer: John Fahey III
Foaled March 11, 2004 in New York...Sold for $7,000 as a yearling, and $70,000 as a juvenile...sire won Grade 2 Forest Hills Handicap, Frank J DeFrancis Memorial Dash, A Phenomenon Handicap (4-5 at 2, won debut)...sire is 3-28 (11%) with juvenile firsters...dam sold for $16,000 as a juvenile...dam went 66-13-9-8 for $98,027 (0-3 at 2)...this is dam's first foal to race...September 10 work matches barn's 2yo Lord of Soul (finished fifth with 56 Beyer in maiden special weight debut at Turfway on September 30)...September 4, August 29 works match barn's 3yo filly Country Maiden (finished 10th with 27 Beyer in maiden special weight debut at Turfway on September 28)...barn is 0-9 over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

Analysis:
NO TRIPPIN shows sharp half-mile gate move for this, and his sire gets scores of first-out winners. He worked a bullet 2 furlongs in 21.20 prior to selling for $75,000 earlier this year. BRILLIANT BID may have been aided by closer's bias when an improved third in first start over Polytrack. Gets major rider switch to Leparoux, and will be rolling in the stretch. WESTWON just missed in first start over Polytrack after making wide move on turn. Logical switching to Prado. GLACKITY GLACK is by solid debut sire, and barn does very well with firsters. OUR SACRED HONOR is a Pletcher firster. 'Nuff said.

The Bet: No Trippin to Win and Place (6-1 odds or more).