10/06/2006 12:00AM

Keeneland Babies for Saturday

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! This meet should be a challenge for the 2-year-olds as many will race over Polytrack for the first time. I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile maiden contest for the meet, and hopefully will improve on the profits made with "Spa Babies."

The betting strategy will be to play horses to win at 2-1 odds or more, and to win and place on horses 4-1 or more. Good luck!

Saturday, October 7, 2006

Race 4
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. Eight Eighty Eight (Maria's Mon - Imaginary Gold, by Mr. Prospector)
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Foaled February 8, 2004...cost $50,000 as a yearling...sire won Grade 1 Champagne and Futurity at two, and is 80-626 (13%) with juveniles...dam went 17-2-5-1 for $99,540 (both wins sprinting, 0-1 at 2), and this is her first foal...dam a half sister to multiple Grade 1 juvenile winner Flanders, multiple stakes-placed juvenile Cobb's Creek, and Grade 2-placed sprinter Late Edition...September 26 workout matches barn's 2yo Drinkwiththedevil (finished third in career debut at Turfway on September 30 with 61 Beyer)...trainer is 14-43 (33%, $1.84 ROI) with second-time juveniles over the past five years.

2. Crimson Whisper (Peaks and Valleys - Crafty Personality, by Crafty Prospector)
Trainer: James Jackson
Foaled March 3, 2004...withdrawn from Keeneland September yearling sale...1/2 to juvenile stakes-winner Crafty Tricker (20-6-1-6, $168,948)...sire won Grade 1 Molson Export Million, Meadowlands Cup (3-4 at 2, won debut), and is 67-537 (12%) with juveniles...dam sold for $40,000 as a yearling, went 14-1-3-2 for $20,755 (won routing, unraced at 2), and foaled 4 winners from 7 runners (1-5 with juveniles)...dam a half to multiple stakes-winner Waki Warrior (2-8 at 2)...trainer is 1-24 (4%, $0.53 ROI) with juveniles returning from 61-180 day layoffs over the past five years.

3. Donnie's Madam (E Dubai - Madam Lightfoot, by Vice Regent)
Trainer: Vickie Foley
Foaled April 25, 2004...sold for $65,000 as a yearling...$120,000 RNA as a juvenile...sire won Grade 2 Dwyer and Suburban, and is 10-35 (29%) with juveniles...dam cost $27,000 as a short yearling, went 5-1-0-1 for $6,525 racing exclusively on turf in Ireland, and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles)...October 4 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Time to Splurge (46 Beyer top)...dam a half to juvenile stakes-placed Carson City Red...trainer is 7-34 (21%, $2.05 ROI) with juveniles off 31-60 day layoffs over the past five years.

4. Baroness Thatcher (Johannesburg - Natkeeta, by Gulch)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Foaled April 29, 2004...sold for $25,000 as short yearling, $27,000 as yearling, and $130,000 as juvenile...half to juvenile stakes-winner Interminable Gulch (16-2-3-0, $140,517), and stakes-placed sprinter Nittygrittydirtbear (10-4-2-1, $87,890, juvenile debut winner)...sire won Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Group 1 Phoenix Stakes, Prix Morny, and Middle Park Stakes (perfect at 2), and is 9-72 (13%) with juveniles...stakes-placed dam cost $14,000 as a yearling, and $38,000 as a juvenile, went 30-3-5-8, for $81,735 (1-6 at 2), and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (2-3 with juveniles, 1 debut winner)...dam half to multiple Grade 3-placed turfer Majestic Sunlight and stakes-placed router Swoop City...trainer is 11-91 (12%, $1.48 ROI) with juveniles off a 31-60 day layoffs over the past five years.

5. Jamie's Mambo (Stephen Got Even - Ellie's Mambo, by Kingmambo)
Trainer: Jamie Grubbs
Foaled March 3, 2004...sold for $40,000 as a yearling...$115,000 RNA as a juvenile...sire won Grade 1 Galleryfurniture.com, and Donn (0-1 at 2), and is 25-165 (15%) with juveniles...this is the first foal from unraced dam that cost $250,000 as yearling...dam a full sister to Group 3-placed Kelly's Olympics (in South Africa)...trainer is 1-33 (3%, $0.15 ROI) with juveniles over the past five years.

6. Rainbow Flight (Gulch - Diamond, by Rainbow Quest)
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally

Foaled April 16, 2004...sold for $60,000 as short yearling, $15,000 as yearling, and $55,000 as juvenile...sire won Grade 1 Hopeful, Futurity, Metropolitan (twice), Wood Memorial, Breeders' Cup Sprint, and Carter (5-7 at 2, won debut), and is 26-250 (10%) with juvenile firsters...this is the first foal to race from 2-0-0-0 dam (raced on turf in England, unraced at 2)...second dam is stakes-winner Key Flyer (21-3-3-5, $161,106, 0-2 at 2)...September 6 workout matches barn's 2yo filly Di's Hope (finished 10th in debut on September 20 at Turfway with 33 Beyer)...August 23 work matches barn's 2yo Academy Talks (finished fourth in career debut on turf at Kentucky Downs on September 18 with 47 Beyer)...trainer is 2-62 (3%, $0.56 ROI) with juvenile firsters over the past five years.

7. Miss Brooklyn B (Mazel Trick - Libby Lloyd, by Irish Tower)
Trainer: Elwood McCann Sr.
Foaled February 14, 2004...sold for $15,000 as a yearling...sire won Grade 2 Triple Bend, and is 39-292 (13%) with juveniles...dam was stakes-placed juvenile (5-0-2-1, $11,035, all races sprinting), and she has foaled 5 winners from 8 runners (0-6 with juveniles)...dam a half to multiple stakes-winner Trooper Reed (3-7 at 2, won debut)...trainer is 2-65 (3%, $0.32 ROI) with juveniles over the past five years.

8. Shriek (Street Cry - Tricky Bird, by Storm Bird)
Trainer: Grant Hofmans

Foaled April 25, 2004...out of Keeneland September yearling sale...half to Grade 3 turf winner Stanley Park...sire won Grade 1 Dubai World Cup and Stephen Foster, and is 3-39 (8%) with juveniles...dam cost $175,000 as a yearling, went 0-1 (unraced at 2), and foaled 1 winner from 5 runners (0-1 with juveniles)...dam half to multiple stakes-winner Tricky Six...trainer is 0-1 with juveniles going route to sprint over the past five years.

9. Homefortheholidays (Came Home - Meteor Cap, by Capote)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Foaled February 18, 2004...sold for $170,000 as a yearling...sire won Grade 1 Hopeful, Pacific Classic, Santa Anita Derby (3-4 at 2, won debut), and is 3-43 (7%) with juveniles...sprint stakes-winning dam (6-3-0-0, $51,875, unraced at 2) has foaled 3 winners from 5 runners (0-5 with juveniles)...third dam was stakes-winner Northern Meteor...September 21 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Floral Park (65 Beyer)...September 7 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Hidden Grove (finished eleventh in maiden special weight at Turfway on September 21 with 26 Beyer)...trainer is 15-86 (17%, $2.11 ROI) with juveniles off 31-60 day layoffs over the past five years.

10. Ringside Partner (Pure Prize - Corporate Spirit, by Corporate Report)
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Foaled February 18, 2004...sold for $5,000 as a yearling...sire won Grade 2 Kentucky Cup Classic, and is 11-49 (22%) with juveniles...unraced dam sold for $40,000 as a yearling, and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (0-3 with juveniles)...dam a half to stakes-placed sprinter Deputy Em...September 26 work matches barn's juvenile filly Love This Star (15 Beyer top)...September 12 workout matches barn's juvenile Wait No Longer (finished second in turf maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs on September 26 with 45 Beyer)...August 23 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Laughwiththedevil (won maiden at Ellis Park on September 3 with 60 Beyer)...trainer is 2-11 (18%, $5.11 ROI) with juveniles off 61-180 layoffs over the past five years.

11. Harmony Jane (Gulch - New Harmony, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer: Neil Howard

Foaled January 19, 2004...sire won Grade 1 Hopeful, Futurity, Metropolitan (twice), Wood Memorial, Breeders' Cup Sprint, and Carter (5-7 at 2, won debut), and is 111-811 (14%) with juveniles...this is the first foal from an unraced dam...dam is a half to stakes-placed Matriarch, multiple Grade 2 winner Tricky Creek (2-5 at 2), multiple stakes-winner Wavering Girl (5-9 at 2), Grade 2 juvenile Speed Dialer, multiple stakes-placed Swiss Asset (0-1 at 2), stakes-winner Everhope (1-1 at 2), Grade 2 turfer Parade Ground (1-5 at 2), and Grade 2 winner Parade Leader (2-5 at 2)...September 15 and 22 workouts match barn's juvenile filly Banyan Street (finished twelfth in maiden special weight on September 30 at Turfway Park with 33 Beyer)...October 1 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Nickel Candy (58 Beyer top)...trainer is 0-8 over the past five years with second-time starters receiving Lasix for the first time.

12. Ms. Blue Blood (A.P. Indy - Regal Band, by Dixieland Band)
Trainer: Juan Ruvalcaba
Foaled April 27, 2004...sold for $475,000 as a yearling...half to stakes-placed turfer Morava (20-4-2-2, $126,620), and multiple Grade 1 winner Monarchos (10-4-1-3, $1,720,830, 0-2 at 2)...sire won Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity, Breeders' Cup Classic, Belmont Stakes, Santa Anita Derby (3-4 at 2), and is 120-697 (120-697 (17%) with juveniles...dam went 18-3-7-3 for $86,865 (all wins routing), and has foaled 5 winners from 8 runners (1-6 with juveniles)...dam half to stakes-winner Legal Coin...trainer is 0-2 with juveniles over the past five years.

Analysis
SHRIEK gave a much-improved performance in first start over Polytrack. She faced constant pressure from the favored winner before yielding in the deep stretch. She switches to Bejarano with a pair of solid 5 furlong workouts on the recent work tab, and shouldn't be too far off the pace. She was headed by Bel Air Beauty last time out, and that one came back to win the Alcibiades at 47-1 odds yesterday. BARONESS THATCHER broke poorly, then rushed up to contest the pace in key Saratoga heat. Should be up close given a good start today. MISS BROOKLYN B hasn't done much wrong in her short career, has some tactical speed, and turf to dirt horses did well here yesterday. EIGHT EIGHTY EIGHT took tons of money for her debut, then just missed after being bumped at the start. She's dangerous, but must deal with the sometimes-intimidating inside post.

The Bet: Shriek

Race 5
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-olds
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
Both ADMIRAL BIRD and TWILIGHT METEOR exit the trouble-filled With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga, and either one could step up in this allowance spot. The former showed worked powerfully over the lawn prior to selling for $250,000 in April, and rallied nicely to win his debut at the Spa. Trainer Christophe Clement excels with turf runners, and he won the Sycamore here yesterday. Twilight Meteor was bounced around in the With Anticipation, and he should save ground at Keeneland on Saturday. Must respect any Pletcher-trained juvenile performer. PETE THE POET overcame outside post to break maiden in turf debut, and should show good speed stretching out in distance. EIGHTEENTHOFMARCH handled maiden claimers on Polytrack, and has turf blood on the top of his pedigree. TRICK N SKIP gets class relief after chasing in vain in the Arlington Washington Futurity.

The Bet: Admiral Bird

Race 8
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Lane's End Breeders' Futurity (Grade 1)
2-year-olds
Purse $500,000

Analysis
CIRCULAR QUAY took advantage of hot pace over Saratoga track that favored closers in the Hopeful, but finds a nice spot for two-turn debut, and should save valuable ground going into the first turn. STREET SENSE has good tactical speed, and may attempt to get the jump on the top pick on the final turn. Wasn't disgraced in the Arlington-Washington Futurity. GREAT HUNTER shows sharp work over the all-weather at Hollywood Park, and he has some stamina in his pedigree. Chased some good ones in Southern California, and may show improved speed stretching out to two turns for the first time. TEUFLESBERG may attempt to take them as far as he can on the front end. FRENCH TRANSITION had horror trip at Turfway, and adds blinkers for dangerous trainer/jockey combination. PASSPORT gets class test after winning photos in both starts.

The Bet: No play

Race 10
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. Tres Dream (Chester House - Dreamy Maiden, by Meadowlake)
Trainer: Scott Blasi
Foaled on February 24, 2004...sold for $30,000 as a yearling...sire won Grade 1 Arlington Million (1-2 at 2, won debut on grass), and is 23-168 (14%) with juveniles...multiple stakes-winning dam (13-5-1-3, $154,296) sold for $87,000 as yearling, and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-2 with juveniles)...second dam was multiple stakes-winner at 2...September 27 work matches barn's juvenile Zanjero (70 Beyer)...trainer is 9-49 (18%, $2.23 ROI) with second-time juveniles over the past five years.

2. Setafire (Jump Start - Sanctionize, by Groovy)
Trainer: Phillip Sims

Foaled on April 21, 2004...$67,000 RNA weanling...$70,000 RNA yearling...half to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Concernina (22-4-1-3, $92,583, 1-3 at 2, won debut)...sire won Grade 2 Saratoga Special at two, and is 10-66 (15%) with juveniles...dam sold for $42,000 as yearling, went 8-1-1-2 for $20,610 (won sprinting), and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (3-5 with juveniles, 2 debut winners)...dam half to Grade 3 winner Nonies Dancer Ali (2-3 at 2), and Grade 2 winner Regal Sanction (0-5 at 2)...trainer is 2-24 (8%, $1.44 ROI) with second-time juveniles over the past five years.

3. Mostbeautifulstorm (Storm Boot - Mostbeautifulsound, by Miswaki)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Foaled on March 19, 2004...sold for $100,000 as yearling, and $180,000 as juvenile...sire was stakes-placed sprinter (unraced at 2), and is 143-936 (15%) with juveniles...dam went 8-1-1-1 for $43,400 (won on turf), and this is her first foal...dam half to stakes-winner Balustrade...trainer is 0-3 with juveniles going turf to dirt off 31-60 day layoff over the past five years.

4. Smile Train (Tiger Ridge - Starbuster, by Housebuster)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Foaled on March 20, 2004...half to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Five Star Susan (11-2-1-2, $62,630, 1-4 at 2, won debut)...sire was 0-5, and is 11-79 (14%) with juvenile firsters...dam sold for $17,000 as weanling, $30,000 as yearling, $35,000 as juvenile, went 6-1-2-3 for $21,005 (all races sprinting at 2), and she has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (both won at 2, one debut winner)...second dam was multiple stakes-placed...October 3 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Time's Mistress (69 Beyer)...trainer is 22-218 (10%, $1.01 ROI) with juvenile firsters over the past five years.

5. Awsugahnow (Forestry - American Jewel, by Quiet American)
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Foaled on March 3, 2004...$190,000 RNA yearling...sire won Grade 1 King's Bishop, and is 51-224 (23%) with juveniles...dam sold for $60,000 as yearling, $150,000 as juvenile, went 0-8 (0-2 at 2), and this is her first foal...dam half to juvenile stakes-winner Turko's Turn (dam of Point Given, etc.), and stakes-winner U R Unforgettable (1-2 at 2)...trainer is 0-3 with second-time starters receiving Lasix for the first time over the past five years.

6. Parisian Parade (Brahms - Da's Mimi, by Imperial Falcon)
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Foaled on February 20, 2004...sold for $45,000 as a yearling...half to multiple Grade 1 winner Iztla (in Mexico)...sire won Grade 1 Hollywood Derby (1-6 at 2), and is 7-51 (14%) with juvenile firsters...dam sold for $6,000 as short yearling, $2,500 as yearling, was a stakes-placed juvenile (21-3-4-3, $46,160, 3-8 at 2, all wins sprinting), and has foaled 5 winners from 7 runners (1-5 with juveniles)...second dam was a multiple stakes-winner...September 19 workout matches barn's juvenile Drinkwiththedevil (finished third in career debut at Turfway on September 30 with 61 Beyer)...trainer is 16-62 (26%, $2.01 ROI) with juvenile firsters over the past five years.

7. Elusiv Lady in Red (Elusive Quality - Wavering Girl, by Wavering Monarch)
Trainer: Ralph Nicks
Foaled on May 12, 2004...$385,000 RNA yearling...half to Grade 1 turfer Military (12-5-1-2, $462,700), sire won Grade 3 Jaipur and Poker, and is 25-122 (20%) with juvenile firsters...multiple stakes-winning dam (22-6-3-3, $314,084, 5-9 at 2, won debut) sold for $38,000 as a yearling, and has foaled 3 winners from 7 runners (no juvenile starters)...dam is a half to stakes-placed Matriarch, multiple Grade 2 winner Tricky Creek (2-5 at 2), Grade 2 juvenile Speed Dialer, multiple stakes-placed Swiss Asset (0-1 at 2), stakes-winner Everhope (1-1 at 2), Grade 2 turfer Parade Ground (1-5 at 2), and Grade 2 winner Parade Leader (2-5 at 2)...August 25 workout matches barn's juvenile Wham (finished fifth in Cradle Stakes at River Downs on September 4 with 55 Beyer)...August 19 workout matches barn's juvenile Ruby's Song (40 Beyer)...August 4 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Forensic Edge (finished fourth in career debut on turf at Kentucky Downs on September 19 with 52 Beyer)...trainer is 3-35 (9%, $0.79 ROI) with juvenile firsters over the past five years.

8. Half A.P. (Pulpit - Half Queen, by Deputy Minister)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Foaled on May 16, 2004...half to multiple Grade 1 juvenile winner Halfbridled (6-4-2-0, $959,400, 4-4 at 2)...sire won Grade 2 Blue Grass and Florida Derby, and is 20-139 (14%) with juvenile firsters...dam sold for $325,000 as a weanling, went 6-1-1-1 for $43,420 (won sprinting in the slop), and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (1-2 with juveniles, debut winner)...dam half to multiple Grade 2 winner Lu Ravi (0-2 at 2)...September 25 workout matches barn's juvenile Base Commander (finished second in career debut in maiden special weight at Turfway Park on September 30 with 79 Beyer)...August 28 workout matches barn's 5-year-old mare Honey Rose (finished second in Kentucky Cup Ladies' Turf on September 26 with 92 Beyer)...trainer is 95-401 (24%, $1.71 ROI) with juvenile firsters over the past five years.

9. No Fair Peeking (Jump Start - Logiciel, by Known Fact)
Trainer: Thomas Proctor
Foaled on May 12, 2004...sold for $37,000 as short yearling...withdrawn from Keeneland September yearling sale...half to Grade 2 turfer Talloires (28-5-8-3, $1,423,949)...sire won Grade 2 Saratoga Special at two, and is 2-31 (6%) with juvenile firsters...dam was stakes-placed on turf in France, and has foaled 8 winners from 13 runners (1-5 with juveniles)...dam half to multiple stakes-winner Frenetique (in France), French stakes-winner Exegese, Norwegian Grade 1-placed Rake, and French stakes-winner Face Nord...July 19 workout matches barn's juvenile Fittipaldi (finished fifth in career debut on turf at Ellis Park on August 16 with 45 Beyer)...July 25, August 30 works match barn's juvenile filly Montfort Lane (13 and 37 Beyers respectively in first two starts in Ohio)...trainer is 3-40 (8%, $0.75 ROI) with juvenile firsters over the past five years.

10. Chatham (Maria's Mon - Circle of Gold, by Seeking the Gold)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Foaled on January 3, 2004...sire won Grade 1 Champagne and Futurity at 2 (won debut), and is 23-217 (11%) with juvenile firsters...this is the first foal from the unraced dam...dam a half sister to multiple Grade 1 juvenile winner Flanders, multiple stakes-placed juvenile Cobb's Creek, and Grade 2-placed sprinter Late Edition...trainer is 9-116 (8%, $0.71 ROI) with juvenile firsters over the past five years.

11. Artemis Priss (Cozar - Miswaki's Way, by Miswaki)
Trainer: Glenn Wismer

Foaled on April 23, 2004...sire went 31-4-4-9 for $162,326, and is 0-2 with juveniles...unraced dam sold for $22,000 as a yearling, and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles)...dam half to multiple turf stakes-winner Mingling Glances...trainer is 0-5 with second-time juveniles over the past five years.

12. Princess Kathleen (Point Given - People's Princess, by Meadowlake)
Trainer: David Vance
Foaled on January 15, 2004...sold for $150,000 as yearling...sire won Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity, Haskell, Belmont, Preakness, Travers, Santa Anita Derby (3-6 at 2), and is 9-70 (13%) with juveniles...Grade 3-winning dam (17-7-5-2, $339,175) sold for $410,000 as a yearling, $800,000 as a juvenile, and this is her first foal...trainer is 1-36 (3%, $0.13 ROI) with second-time juveniles over the past five years.

Analysis:
HALF A.P. is a half to 2-year-old filly champion Halfbridled, and she'll debut for one of the best first-out barns in the world. The works look solid so expect her to be raring to go at first asking under Garrett Gomez. CHATHAM boasts a classy pedigree, and the early foal may have a maturity advantage over some of the other firsters. TRES DREAM was forced to rally against the grain of a speed-favoring track in career debut. She should appreciate the extra distance, but will have to break from the rail. MOSTBEAUTIFULSTORM makes the powerful turf to Polytrack move, and she has good early speed. SMILE TRAIN is bred for speed on both sides of the pedigree. PARISIAN PARADE shows bullet works over Polytrack for debut. Barn excels with firsters.

The Bet: Half A.P.