10/24/2012 4:50PM

Keeneland Babies for Oct. 25, 2012

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies!  I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet.  In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Keeneland Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile maiden race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.  Selections and wagering strategy will be presented for non-maiden races.

NOTE: Find weekend Keeneland Babies analysis in DRF GamePlan

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Thursday, October 25, 2012

Race 3
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($40,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $19,000

ANALYSIS:

1. CECILEABRATION (Graeme Hall - Divine Rockette), foaled in Florida, sold for $80,000 as a yearling and is a full sister to Grade 3 Generous Stakes winner Who's Up (3-12, 134K, 2-4 at two, 0-2 routing).  Cecileabration is by three-time Grade 2 winner Graeme Hall (Arkansas Derby, Jim Dandy, Eclipse, 7-22, 1.1M, 1-5 at two, 5-17 routing), a stallion that is 68-414 (16%) with juveniles.  The dam won sprinting (3-17, 119K, 1-4 at two, 0-1 routing, cost 25K at two) and has foaled two winners from four runners (1-3 2with 2yos, 0-2 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed turfer Knight Dancer (4-24, 178K, 0-2 routing) and stakes-placed Lipan (4-63, 205K, 0-3 at two, 1-8 routing). Trainer Michael Stidham is 3-11 (27%, $3.47 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going sprint to route on synthetic (2-4, 50%, $4.50 ROI at Keeneland).

2. EBBYCALVIN LALOOSH (Candy Ride - Proposed) sold for $8,000 as a yearling and is by three-time Grade/Group 1 winner Candy Ride (6-6, 749K, 2-2 routing), a stallion that is 75-464 (16%) with juveniles. This is the first starter from Grade 2 Milady Handicap and Grade 2 El Encino Stakes winner Proposed (7-15, 567K, 0-2 at two, 4-9 routing). The dam is a full sister to Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks winner Silent Sighs (4-6, 442K, 2-3 at two, 1-3 routing). Trainer Wayne Catalano is 2-11 (18%, $0.78 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping into maiden claimers (0-1 at Keeneland). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 15, Ebbycalvin Laloosh "finished with good energy, lightly ridden."

3. GENEVA LAKE (Friends Lake - Fantastic City) sold for $22,000 as a yearling and is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Fantastic Cousin (2-21, 217K, 0-1 routing) by Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Friends Lake (3-7, 696K, 2-3 at two, 2-5 routing), a stallion that is 79-497 (16%) with juveniles. The dam won on turf (2-6, 63K) and has foaled four winners from five runners (1-4 with 2yos, 2-3 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Western Fame (8-30, 402K, 0-1 at two) and British stakes-placed turfer Golden Dice (8-39, 221K, 1-4 at two). Trainer Neil Pessin is 1-4 (25%, $1.65 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping into maiden claimers (0-1 at Keeneland). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 18, Geneva Lake "was not under any pressure."

4. ARBITRATION (Arch - Remediate) sold for $38,000 as a yearling and is a half-sister to stakes-placed Xela (7-31, 210K, 2-6 routing) by Grade 1 Super Derby winner Arch (5-7, 480K, 1-1 at two, 3-4 routing), a stallion that is 61-466 (13%) with juveniles. The dam won on turf (4-22, 125K, 0-4 at two, 0-4 routing) and has foaled four winners from six runners (1-2 with 2yos, 3-4 with routers). The second dam is juvenile stakes-placed router Interlope (1-18, 46K, 1-4 at two, 0-5 routing). Trainer Graham Motion is 1-11 (9%, $0.89 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping into maiden claimers (1-1, 100%, $9.80 ROI at Keeneland).

5. THREE D (Magna Graduate - Magnificent Miss) is by Grade 2 Clark Handicap winner Magna Graduate (10-35, 2.5M, 2-5 at two, 10-33 routing) a first-crop stallion that is 6-32 (19%) with juveniles. The placed dam (0-6, 16K, 0-4 at two, 0-3 routing, cost 22K as yearling) has foaled no winners from two runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers).  This is the female family of Grade 2 San Felipe Handicap and Grade 2 Silver Screen Handicap winner Stancharry (8-32, 313K, 1-3 at two).  Trainer Eric Reed is 2-30 (7%, $0.36 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going sprint to routes (0-3 at Keeneland). No match for a runaway winner in first start over the surface, but is bred to go long and may work out a nice trip from just off the pace.

6. ALYDORABLE (Arch - Esprit d'Escalier), foaled in Arkansas, sold for $45,000 as a weanling and was purchased for $75,000 as a yearling.  She is a half-sister to Grade 3 Eatontown Stakes winner Gastronomical (6-29, 468K, 1-5 at two, 1-5 routing) and multiple European stakes-winning turfer Spanish John (6-45, 189K, 2-3 at two) by Grade 1 Super Derby winner Arch (5-7, 480K, 1-1 at two, 3-4 routing), a stallion that is 61-466 (13%) with juveniles. The dam was placed on turf (0-7, 12K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 routing) and has foaled nine winners from twelve starters (4-10 with 2yos, 4-7 with routers). This is the female family of stakes-winner Amerrico (7-17, 138K) and stakes-winner Moreland Hills (3-13, 34K). Trainer Michael Maker is 0-9 over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping into maiden claimers (0-2 at Keeneland).

7. SHE'S TELLIN'TALES (Tale of the Cat - Lunes Grito) was bought back for $70,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 2 King's Bishop Stakes winner Tale of the Cat (5-9, 360K, 3-5 routing), a stallion that is 238-1314 (18%) with juveniles. The multiple stakes-placed dam (3-37, 119K, 0-3 at two, 1-12 routing) has foaled three winners from four runners (2-3 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile Hola C Bright (12-61, 157K, 1-5 at two, 2-17 routing). Trainer Neil Howard is 1-3 (33%, $1.66 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping into maiden claimers.  Forged to the front in midstretch of her most recent start at Kentucky Downs and was game in defeat.  Seems well-placed in this spot.

8. VALYRIAN STEEL (Jazil - Quoit Blessed) is by Grade 1 Belmont Stakes winner Jazil (2-11, 890K, 1-3 at two, 2-8 routing), a stallion that is 0-17 with juvenile debut runners (1-14, 7%, $1.46 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  This is the first starter from the unplaced dam (0-9, 7K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 routing). This is the female family of stakes-winner Bold Captive (10-29, 82K) and stakes-winner Bold Storm (8-35, 60K). Waquoit doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Paul McEntee is 0-14 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (0-3 at Keeneland). McEntee is 0-9 with all debut runners in 2012.

9. DIMPLES (Bob and John - Parade Charade), foaled in West Virginia, sold for $19,000 as a weanling and is by Grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes winner Bob and John (5-14, 996K, 1-5 at two, 5-13 routing), a stallion that is 19-173 (11%) with juveniles. The dam won routing (1-12, 24K, 1-7 routing) and has foaled four winners from five runners (0-3 with 2yos, 2-3 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Lord Nelson (Panama and Puerto Rico), Grade 3 Baltimore Handicap and Grade 3 Cliff Hanger Handicap winner Excellent Tipper (12-70, 924K, 10-49 routing), juvenile stakes-placed Tip for Jasper (5-57, 101K, 0-3 at two, 2-13 routing) and multiple European stakes-placed turfer Big Luciano. Trainer Michael Maker is 4-24 (17%, $1.15 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping into maiden claimers (2-9, 22%, $2.13 ROI at Keeneland).  Outhustled to the front by an odds-on winner in most recent start at Mountaineer Park, but was easily second-best.  Should be a strong pace presence here.

10. CAPRIANI (Giant's Causeway - Corlett) is by six-time Group 1 turf winner Giant's Causeway (9-13, 3.0M, 3-3 at two, 0-1 routing), a stallion that is 79-557 (14%) with juveniles.  The dam was a stakes-winning sprinter at two (2-4, 76K, 2-5 at two, cost 50K as yearling) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed turfer Decisive Blow (1-24, 80K, 0-11 at two, 0-2 routing). Trainer Darrin Miller is 1-4 (25%, $1.20 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping into maiden claimers (1-1, 100%, $4.80 ROI at Keeneland).

11. GO OLIVIA GO (Value Plus - Kahlua Bay) is by stakes-winning sprinter Value Plus (3-15, 414K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 0-7 routing), a stallion that is 14-112 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (5-31, 16%, $1.50 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The unraced dam has foaled no winners from one runner (0-1 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Expresso Bay (11-44, 344K, 2-18 routing), three-time Grade 1 winner Medaglia d'Oro (Travers Stakes, Whitney Handicap, Donn Handicap, 8-17, 5.7M, 0-1 at two, 7-15 routing) and Grade 3 Nobel Damsel Stakes winner Naples Bay (4-10, 210K). Catrail doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Todd Pletcher is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden claimers (0-1 at Keeneland). Pletcher is 37-111 (33%, $2.33 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 19, August 27, September 16, September 24, October 1 workouts match Pletcher's juvenile Epoustouflant (finished eleventh in maiden special weight debut over polytrack at Keeneland on October 20 with 16 Beyer). The September 8 workout matches Pletcher's juvenile filly Danalake (finished second in the $75,000 Blue Hen Stakes on dirt at Delaware on September 29 with 63 Beyer). The October 8 workout matches Pletcher's juvenile In Todd We Trust (finished fifth in maiden special weight debut over the polytrack at Keeneland on October 14 with 46 Beyer). The October 13 workout matches Pletcher's juvenile Winning Cause (finished first in maiden special weight on polytrack at Keeneland on October 18 with 86 Beyer).

12. JU JU JUDY (Istan - Judiths Rumour) sold for $1,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 3 Ack Ack Handicap and Grade 3 Turfway Park Fall Championship Stakes winner Istan (9-21, 461K, 1-2 at two, 5-8 routing), a stallion that is 7-62 (11%) with juveniles.  The dam won sprinting (2-7, 17K, 0-1 routing, cost 3.5K as yearling) and has foaled two winners from four runners (1-3 with 2yos, 0-2 with routers in North America).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed router Sadler's Trick (3-16, 101K, 2-10 routing). Trainer Joddie Fortner is 0-3 over the past five years with juveniles (0-1 at Keeneland).  Was hustled to gain forward position from an outside post in most recent outing before faltering in the stretch.  Shouldn't be too far away when the field straightens into the backstretch.

SELECTIONS:
1. Three D
2. Valyrian Steel
3. She's Tellin'tales

THE PLAY:
Three D to WIN and PLACE at 9-2 odds or greater.

***

Race 5
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

ANALYSIS:

1. TIZ THE KID (Tiz Wonderful - Penny Arcade) sold for $47,000 as a weanling, was purchased for $85,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to stakes-winning juvenile Cohiba Miss (3-11, 141K, 3-9 at two, 2-4 routing). Tiz the Kid is by Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club winner Tiz Wonderful (3-5, 254K, 3-3 at two, 1-1 sprinting), a first-crop sire that is 4-24 (17%, $1.48 ROI) with juvenile debut runners. The unraced dam (cost 725K as yearling) has foaled three winners from six runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 Ladies Handicap winner Wortheroatsingold (4-36, 328K, 1-6 at two, 4-23 routing). Danzig is 6-46 (13%, $1.40 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Tom Amoss is 4-26 (15%, $0.93 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (1-3, 33%, $2.60 ROI at Keeneland). Amoss is 9-33 (27%, $1.71 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 18 workout matches Amoss' 3-year-old filly Bandelle (finished eighth in maiden special weight on dirt at Hoosier on October 5 with 7 Beyer). The September 27 workout matches Amoss' 3-year-old Bernsteins Star (finished eleventh in maiden special weight debut over polytrack at Keeneland on October 20 with 44 Beyer). The October 4 workout matches Amoss' juvenile filly Dynasheals (finished third in $30,000 claimer over polytrack at Keeneland on October 12 with 52 Beyer). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 11, Tiz the Kid "finished the work in good fashion, was a little better than Cruachan."  That one is an Amoss-trained juvenile that finished sixth in his maiden special weight debut over polytrack on October 18 with a 63 Beyer). A week later, Tiz the Kid was noted to be "training forwardly, tired the last eighth, got the 5 furlongs in :59/2."

2. BIG SAM (Big Brown - Sashay Away) was bought back for $45,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to stakes-winner New Edition (4-26, 269K, 1-4 at two, 2-4 in main track sprints).  Big Sam is by four-time Grade 1 winner Big Brown (Kentucky Derby, Haskell Invitational, Florida Derby, Preakness Stakes, 7-8, 3.6M, 1-1 at two), a first-crop stallion that is 9-40 (23%) with juveniles. The dam won on turf (1-9, 12K, 0-4 at two, 0-4 in main track sprints, cost 25K as yearling) and has foaled six winners from eight runners (2-6 with 2yos, 6-8 with main track sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed sprinter Lovely Sage (2-9, 80K, 1-1 at two, 2-6 in main track sprints). Trainer Tim Hamm is 13-50 (26%, $2.45 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles on synthetic (0-4 at Keeneland).

3. BRINK OF WAR (Defer - Sunday Sport) is by Grade 3 Laurel Futurity winner Defer (4-18, 260K, 2-3 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints), a sire that is 9-47 (19%) with juveniles. The winning dam (2-24, 26K, 0-4 at two, 1-10 in main track sprints, cost 190K at two) has foaled two winners from four runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-3 with main track sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Group 3-placed Vlytava (Argentina), multiple Group 1 winner Pryka (Argentina) and Group 3 winner Menta Fresca (Argentina).  Trainer Wayne Catalano is 17-51 (33%, $2.51 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles on synthetic (4-12, 33%, $3.85 ROI at Keeneland).

4. STRONG RESPONSE (State City - Swing the Cat) sold for $2,600 as a short yearling and is by Grade 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen winner State City (6-17, 1.3M, 1-2 at two, 5-12 sprinting), a stallion that is 5-55 (9%) with juveniles.  The dam won on turf (3-15, 107K, 0-4 at two) and has foaled two winners from four runners (1-3 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters). Trainer Jay Severs (substituting for the suspended Bret Calhoun) is 0-7 with second-time juveniles (0-4 at Keeneland).

5. GUESS MY NAME (Giant's Causeway - Shades of Grace) was bought back for $140,000 as a yearling and is by six-time Group 1 turf winner Giant's Causeway (9-13, 3.0M, 3-3 at two), a stallion that is 79-557 (14%) with juveniles. The placed dam (0-4, 11K, 0-3 sprinting) has foaled one winner from four runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 Belmont Breeders' Cup Handicap winner Fortitude (5-50, 426K, 0-3 at two, 1-4 sprinting.  Trainer Michael Stidham is 13-86 (15%, $1.00 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles (2-10, 20%, $1.50 ROI at Keeneland). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 19, Guess My Name gave a "good head up workout with Every Way and was slightly better with Graham up."  Every Way is a juvenile filly with a 70 Beyer top on synthetic).

6. BEMATA (Horse Greeley - Bema) is a half-brother to juvenile Grade 3-placed Ocasta (3-21, 84K, 1-5 at two, 1-7 sprinting) by Grade 2 Del Mar Futurity winner Horse Greeley (2-6, 225K, 2-4 at two, 2-5 sprinting), a first-crop sire that is 1-16 (6%, $0.59 ROI) with juvenile debut runners. The stakes-winning dam (3-8, 146K, 2-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting, cost 275K as yearling) has foaled three winners from three runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Deodar (6-28, 162K, 0-1 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and Grade 3-placed router Morada Key (3-25, 180K, 0-7 at two, 1-14 sprinting). Pulpit is 7-71 (10%, $1.08 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Al Stall Jr. is 6-19 (32%, $3.21 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (4-11, 36%, $3.63 ROI at Keeneland). Stall is 6-48 (12%, $2.61 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 25 workout matches Stall's 3-year-old filly Apropos (finished first in maiden special weight on polytrack at Keeneland on October 21 with 77 Beyer). The August 25, September 1, September 8 workouts match Stall's 3-year-old filly Applauding (92 Beyer top on dirt).  The September 18 workout matches Stall's 3-year-old filly Ire (finished fourth in 'n1x' allowance over polytrack at Keeneland on October 13 with 83 Beyer). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for September 27, Bemata gave a "nice gate effort, in hand against Said."  Fifteen days later, Bemata gave a "good gate work, a little better than Said, on out in :59/3."  Said is an unraced juvenile filly.

7. POLARIS (Henrythenavigator - Rushen Heat) sold for $18,000 in May after breezing a furlong in 10.4 seconds.  He is by four-time Group 1 turf winner Henrythenavigator (6-11, 2.7M, 2-4 at two, won debut) a first-crop stallion that is 1-6 (17%, $1.03 ROI) with juvenile debut runners in North America. This is the first starter from the stakes-placed dam (3-23, 179K, 0-4 sprinting). The dam is a full sister to Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup winner Unusual Suspect (9-67, 1.2M, 1-7 at two, 0-4 sprinting) and Grade 1 Las Virgenes Stakes winner Golden Doc A (3-26, 580K, 2-8 at two, 2-13 sprinting). Unusual Heat is 1-13 (8%, $1.11 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Eoin Harty is 2-51 (4%, $0.20 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (0-8 at Keeneland). Harty is 1-29 (3%, $0.27 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 6, Polaris "broke very sharply and continued on well to the finish."

8. LAYTON REGISTER (War Chant - Blush On Cue) was bought back for $9,500 as a yearling and is by Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile winner War Chant (5-7, 1.1M, 1-1 at two, 1-1 sprinting), a stallion that is 12-110 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (2-32, 6%, $0.30 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was placed on turf (0-5, 2K, cost 105K at two) and has foaled one winner from one runner (1-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Underground (2-8, 87K, 2-8 sprinting). Theatrical is 1-55 (2%, $0.20 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Phil Oliver is 0-11 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (0-6 at Keeneland). Oliver is 1-1 (100%, $6.20 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 25 workout matches Oliver's 4-year-old filly Last Full Measure (finished first in 'n2x' allowance over the polytrack at Keeneland on October 14 with 83 Beyer). The September 15 workout matches Oliver's 3-year-old Wasn't Me (65 Beyer top on turf, entered in Thursday's sixth race).

9. RUPANSU (Johannesburg - Sacred Sue) sold for $17,000 as a weanling, was purchased for $52,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to juvenile Grade 2-placed sprinter Miss Mary Apples (3-19, 171K, 1-7 at two, won debut, 3-15 sprinting) by four-time juvenile Grade/Group 1 winner Johannesburg (7-10, 1.0M, 7-7 at two), a stallion that is 24-262 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (4-59, 7%, $0.72 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The unraced dam has foaled three winners from four runners (1-4 with 2yos, debut winner, 2-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winner Maddie's Charm (2-12, 58K, 2-5 at two, 0-2 sprinting). Holy Bull is 4-59 (7%, $0.53 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012. Trainer Garry Simms is 6-28 (21%, $1.80 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (0-1 at Keeneland). Simms is 5-14 (35%, $3.34 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 3 workout matches Simms' juvenile filly Brotherhood Singer (finished first in maiden special weight debut on dirt at Hoosier on September 19 with 66 Beyer). The October 8, October 15 workouts match Simms' 3-year-old Shut Down Corner (52 Beyer top on dirt).

10. KAMCHATKA (Tale of the Cat - Saratoga Drive) sold for $550,000 in March after breezing a furlong in 10.2 seconds.  He is by Grade 2 King's Bishop Stakes winner Tale of the Cat (5-9, 360K, 1-3 sprinting), a stallion that is 238-1314 (18%) with juveniles.  The dam was stakes-placed routing (2-11, 89K, 0-1 at two, 1-3 sprinting, cost 100K as yearling) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple European Group 3 turf winner Voyagers Quest (4-15, 222K, 2-4 at two), multiple stakes-placed juvenile Orange U Tricky (9-86, 125K, 2-9 at two, 8-70 sprinting) and multiple juvenile stakes-winning sprinter One By the Knows (5-23, 182K, 3-6 at two, 5-14 sprinting). Trainer Michael Maker is 1-4 (25%, $0.80 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going route to sprint and turf to synthetic (0-1 at Keeneland).

11. INDYGOFLYER (Indygo Shiner - Jade Queen) sold for $150,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 3 Jefferson Cup Stakes winner Indygo Shiner (4-12, 444K, 1-3 at two, 1-2 with sprinters), a stallion that is 6-54 (11%) with juveniles.  The dam was multiple Grade 1-placed (3-20, 293K, 0-1 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Megantic (7-27, 295K, 0-1 at two). Trainer Wayne Lukas is 2-43 (5%, $0.67 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles adding Lasix (1-17, 6%, $0.77 ROI at Keeneland).

SELECTIONS:
1. Bemata
2. Kamchatka
3. Layton Register

THE PLAY:
Bemata to WIN and PLACE at 4-1 odds or greater.

***

Race 7
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

ANALYSIS:

1. BRAZILIAN GOLD (Siphon - Deealta), foaled in Pennsylvania, is by three-time Grade/Group 1 winner Siphon (12-25, 3.1M, 3-3 at two, 5-8 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 18-181 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (no debut winners in 2012).  The dam won routing at two (1-5, 11K, 1-5 at two, 0-3 in main track sprints) and has foaled one winner from two runners (0-2 with main track sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple juvenile stakes-winner Serapide (Italy) and French juvenile stakes-winning turfer Simply Tricky (4-21, 60K, 2-5 at two, won debut, 0-3 in main track sprints). Twining is 3-24 (13%, $0.91 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Louis Oliva is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners. This is Oliva's first debut runners in 2012.

2. RUBLE (Exchange Rate - Silent Street) is by Grade 2 Tom Fool Handicap winner Exchange Rate (6-15, 479K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 3-6 sprinting), a stallion that is 35-237 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (9-47, 19%, $3.24 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). This is the first starter from the stakes-placed dam (1-19, 111K, 0-2 at two, 1-16 sprinting). The second dam is Grade 1 Hollywood Oaks and Grade 1 Milady Handicap winner Listening (7-18, 577K, 0-2 at two, 2-4 sprinting). Street Cry is 1-15 (7%, $0.39 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Ian Wilkes is 0-29 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (0-14 at Keeneland). Wilkes is 0-38 with all debut runners in 2012. The September 19 workout matches Wilkes' juvenile Star Street (31 Beyer on turf).

3. SMOKININDABOYSROOM (First Defence - Heart of a Chief) was bought back for $50,000 as a yearling and sold for $50,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 10.4 seconds.  He is by Grade 1 Forego Handicap winner First Defence (6-14, 580K, 1-3 at two, 4-10 sprinting), a first-crop stallion that is 2-25 (8%) with juveniles. The dam was stakes-placed sprinting (2-14, 58K, 2-14 sprinting) and has foaled four winners from five runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-5 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Sky Copper (3-14, 106K, 0-1 at two). Trainer Michael Maker is 8-34 (24%, $1.48 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles on synthetic (0-8 at Keeneland).

4. BOGART (Lion Heart - Hepburn), foaled in Virginia, is a half-brother to Grade 1 Prioress Stakes winner Her Smile (4-16, 457K, 3-4 at two, 4-11 sprinting) and is by Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity and Grade 1 Haskell Invitational winner Lion Heart (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two, 2-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 123-789 (16%) with juveniles. The dam won sprinting (2-13, 68K, 2-2 at two, 2-10 sprinting) and has foaled four winners from five runners (2-4 with 2yos, 4-5 with sprinters). The second dam is stakes-winner Favored Lady (5-23, 113K, 1-3 at two, 2-7 sprinting). Trainer Jonathan Sheppard is 1-6 (17%, $0.46 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles (0-2 at Keeneland). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 10, Bogart gave a "nice even effort, lightly ridden."

5. CICATRIZ (Grand Reward - Harbor's Halo) was bought back for $6,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap winner Grand Reward (4-24, 545K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 0-3 sprinting), a stallion that is 10-118 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (2-24, 8%, $1.01 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was stakes-placed sprinting at two (1-10, 62K, 0-4 at two, 1-10 sprinting, cost 28K as yearling) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple Italian stakes-placed turfer Mrs Harbor. Southern Halo is 4-38 (11%, $1.61 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  This is trainer Rodolfo Armenta's first juvenile runner over the past five years.  Armenta is 0-2 with all debut runners in 2012.

6. BRAZILIAN COURT (Harlan's Holiday - Devotedness), foaled in Florida, was bought back for $67,000 in March after breezing two furlongs in 21.4 seconds.  He is a half-brother to stakes-winning sprinter Devoted Wildcat (4-14, 94K, 1-4 at two, 3-11 sprinting) and is by Grade 1 Florida Derby, Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes and Grade 1 Donn Handicap winner Harlan's Holiday (9-22, 3.6M, 4-6 at two, 2-3 sprinting), a stallion that is 122-714 (17%) with juveniles.  The unraced dam has foaled three winners from four runners (2-4 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Hole in the Head (3-21, 112K, 1-4 at two, 2-10 sprinting) and Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes and Grade 3 La Troienne Stakes winner Joint Effort (6-18, 791K, 2-8 at two, 4-11 sprinting). Trainer Bob Hess Jr. is 1-7 (14%, $1.02 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to synthetic (0-1 at Keeneland).

7. MAJESTIC LAD (Majestic Warrior - Cat's Glow) is by Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes winner Majestic Warrior (2-7, 239K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 2-4 sprinting), a first-crop stallion that is 6-50 (12%, $2.57 ROI) with juvenile debut runners. The dam was a stakes-winner on turf (3-14, 120K, cost 75K at two) and has foaled no winners from five runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-5 with sprinters). This is the female family of juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Halo High (1-9, 9K, 1-5 at two, 1-9 sprinting) and juvenile stakes-placed Tepu Sultan (2-29, 200K, 0-8 at two, 0-10 sprinting). Sir Cat 3-26 (12%, $1.78 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Desmond Fogarty is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners. Fogarty is 0-4 with all debut runners in 2012. The September 16 workout matches Fogarty's 3-year-old Soapstone Prairie (finished sixth in $16,000 'n2L' claimer on turf at Arlington on September 30 with 64 Beyer). The October 5 workout matches Fogarty's juvenile Blue Blade (finished ninth in maiden special weight over polytrack at Keeneland on October 18 with 43 Beyer).

8. RED RONCHO (Red Giant - Moroncho) is by Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship winner Red Giant (6-12, 1.0M, 0-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting), a first-crop stallion that is 0-5 with juvenile debut runners. The dam won sprinting (2-3, 20K, 2-3 sprinting) and has foaled one winner from two runners (0-1 with sprinters). This is the female family of Grade 2-placed sprinter Air Port Won (7-24, 150K, 7-22 sprinting). Chief Honcho is 1-3 (33%, $4.27 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  This is trainer Sally Schu's first juvenile runner over the past five years.  Schu is 0-1 with all debut runners in 2012. The September 25, October 2 workouts match Schu's 3-year-old Grand Coulee (finished sixth in $50,000 'n2L' claimer over polytrack at Keeneland on October 7 with 60 Beyer). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 10, Red Roncho "is on the improve."

9. OFFICER GRIFFIN (Officer - First Attraction) is by Grade 1 Champagne Stakes winner Officer (6-9, 804K, 5-8 at two, won debut, 5-5 sprinting), a stallion that is 31-230 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (6-45, 13%, $2.320 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was a stakes-winning sprinter at two (3-15, 84K, 2-4 at two, won debut, 3-12 sprinting) and has foaled one winner from three runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning juvenile Action Tonight (13-84, 265K, 2-9 at two, 11-73 sprinting), multiple stakes-winner Leaving On My Mind (8-25, 411K, 5-13 at two, 3-11 sprinting) and stakes-winning router Going Away Baby (2-9, 74K, 1-4 at two, 1-5 sprinting). Pancho Villa doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Jeff Engler is 0-8 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners. Engler is 0-6 with all debut runners in 2012. The September 12, October 1 workouts match Engler's 3-year-old filly Dancingovertheline (finished eighth in $12,500 maiden claiming debut on dirt at Hoosier on October 17 with 0 Beyer).

10. CATBIRD SEAT (Bluegrass Cat - Crystal Shard) is a half-brother to stakes-winning router Clear Destiny (3-15, 193K, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting), stakes-placed Perfect Cut (4-23, 164K, 0-3 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and Grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes winner Gemologist (5-7, 794K, 3-3 at two, 1-1 sprinting) by Grade 1 Haskell Invitational winner Bluegrass Cat (5-11, 1.7M, 3-4 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 23-139 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (8-54, 15%, $2.49 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). The unraced dam (cost 400K as yearling) has foaled eight winners from eight runners (2-4 with 2yos, 1 debut winner, 3-7 with sprinters). The dam is a full sister to Grade 2 Bonnie Miss Stakes and Grade 2 Forward Gal Stakes winner Withallprobability (9-27, 643K, 1-1 at two, 6-17 sprinting) and is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Slaymaker (5-45, 127K, 0-3 sprinting), Japanese stakes-placed Kyowa Alysheba, stakes-winner Kadrmas (12-64, 257K, 5-27 sprinting), stakes-placed Tomisue's Gold (3-15, 98K, 0-4 sprinting) and stakes-placed turfer Go Carolina (3-15, 65K, 0-3 sprinting). Mr. Prospector is 1-41 (2%, $0.33 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Victoria Oliver is 3-21 (14%, $9.08 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (1-7, 14%, $10.17 ROI at Keeneland). Oliver is 1-6 (17%, $11.87 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012.

11. CHARMING CHARLIE (Bwana Charlie - Swinging Maria), foaled in Florida, sold for $1,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 2 Amsterdam Stakes winner Bwana Charlie (4-19, 388K, 0-5 at two, 3-15 sprinting), a stallion that is 47-298 (16%) with juveniles.  The dam won sprinting (4-13, 82K, 4-13 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Got That Swing (7-63, 168K, 5-49 sprinting), Grade 3 route winner S. S. Stone (5-10, 154K, 1-2 at two, 1-5 sprinting) and stakes-placed sprinter Precious Duke (6-27, 102K, 0-2 at two, 5-26 sprinting). Trainer Joseph Cheeks is 5-27 (19%, $2.25 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles on synthetic (0-5 at Keeneland).  Charming Charlie races with no shoes.

SELECTIONS:
1. Red Roncho
2. Bogart
3. Brazilian Court

THE PLAY:
Red Roncho to WIN and PLACE at 6-1 odds or greater.

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