10/23/2012 5:09PM

Keeneland Babies for Oct. 24, 2012

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies!  I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet.  In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Keeneland Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile maiden race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.  Selections and wagering strategy will be presented for non-maiden races.

NOTE: Find weekend Keeneland Babies analysis in DRF GamePlan

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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Race 1
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($40,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $19,000

ANALYSIS:

1. ALIMONY COBRA (Stephen Got Even - Parmilla) sold for $25,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Silver Stockings (6-12, 162K, 2-3 at two, 1-2 in main track routes). Alimony Cobra is by Grade 1 Donn Handicap winner Stephen Got Even (5-11, 1.0M, 0-1 at two, 5-10 in main track routes), a stallion that is 87-699 (12%) with juveniles. The dam won sprinting (1-1, 3K) and has foaled five winners from eight runners (3-5 with 2yos, 2-5 with main track routers). The second dam is multiple stakes-placed Running Around (9-25, 91K). Trainer Phil Sims is 3-11 (27%, $7.32 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles on synthetic (1-5, 20%, $5.80 ROI at Keeneland). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 24, Alimony Cobra worked "in company with Street Soldier and was the better of the two."  Street Soldier is an unraced juvenile.  After being bumped a couple of times in the opening furlong of his debut, Alimony Cobra settled into a three-wide tracking trip. He faltered badly, but may improve off that effort and can save valuable ground this time after breaking from an advantageous inside post.

2. FEAR THE KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Dynarhythm), foaled in Illinois, is by Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes winner Kitten's Joy (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 0-1 routing), a stallion that is 29-165 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (7-46, 15%, $1.82 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). The dam won routing (1-4, 35K, 1-3 routing) and has foaled two winners from two runners (1-2 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Adhrhythm (9-35, 642K, 3-7 at two, 3-13 routing). Dynaformer is 6-78 (8%, $1.00 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners.  Trainer Wayne Catalano is 3-23 (13%, $0.73 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden claimers (1-7, 14%, $0.74 ROI at Keeneland). Catalano is 11-63 (17%, $2.56 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 4, Fear the Kitten gave a "good finish, held a slight edge over Bold Kitten." That one, a juvenile filly trained by Wayne Catalano, finished fourth in her maiden special weight debut at Keeneland on October 19 with a 28 Beyer.  The October 11 workout matches Bold Kitten. 

3. GREENGRASSOFYOMING (Quest - Flick) sold for $3,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 2 Clark Handicap winner Quest (6-23, 768K, 4-18 routing), a stallion that is 15-101 (15%) with juveniles.  The dam was a juvenile stakes-winning sprinter (2-5, 86K, 2-4 at two, cost 95K as yearling) and has foaled one winner from three runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes winner Cinemine (12-29, 506K, 2-3 at two, 1-5 routing). Trainer Michael Tomlinson is 1-14 (7%, $0.24 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going sprint to route.  Seems well-suited to this class level and could attempt to control the pace from the outset.

4. TATES HUMOR (Henny Hughes - Tates Queen) was bought back for $15,000 as a yearling and was bought back for $65,000 in March after breezing a furlong in 10.2 seconds.  He is by Grade 1 Vosburgh Stakes and Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes winner Henny Hughes (6-10, 1.1M, 3-6 at two, 0-2 routing), a stallion that is 65-342 (19%) with juveniles. The dam won on turf (1-14, 53K, 0-4 at two, 0-9 routing) and this is her first starter. The third dam is stakes-winning turfer Spanish Parade (6-15, 131K, 0-3 routing). Trainer Ronny Werner is 0-5 over the past five years with juveniles following a trainer switch (0-1 at Keeneland). Takes a deserved drop in class after three non-descript efforts in Southern California.

5. GRAND KUMA (Kuma - Lady Offense) is by route winner Kuma (1-7, 41K, 1-4 routing), a stallion that is 0-6 with juveniles.  This is the first starter from the stakes-placed dam (7-28, 89K, 1-3 at two, 0-3 routing). Trainer Larry Lay is 2-20 (10%, $1.30 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles (0-3 at Keeneland).

6. RUSH IN (Langfuhr - Alttilebitearly) is by Grade 1 Vosburgh Stakes, Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap and Grade 1 Carter Handicap winner Langfuhr (9-23, 698K, 1-6 routing), a stallion that is 39-420 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (8-73, 11%, $1.56 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). The unraced dam has foaled no winners from one runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to British juvenile Group 3 turf winner Bertolini (2-23, 723K, 1-7 at two), stakes-winning turfer Amelia (4-17, 179K, 0-2 at two, 0-2 routing) and stakes-winner Alchemilla (5-13, 208K, 1-1 at two, 4-9 routing). Thunder Gulch is 7-77 (9%, $0.88 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer David Carroll is 2-22 (9%, $1.95 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers (2-6, 33%, $7.16 ROI at Keeneland). Carroll is 1-10 (10%, $7.98 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 13 workout matches Carroll's juvenile filly Readyandaway (finished third in $30,000 maiden claiming debut over polytrack at Turfway on September 30 with 44 Beyer). The August 13 workout matches Carroll's juvenile filly Sweet Red Cat (finished second in $30,000 maiden claiming debut on turf at Kentucky Downs on September 19 with 59 Beyer). The September 10 workout matches Carroll's juvenile filly Noun (finished fifth in the $74,000 Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies Stakes on turf on September 15 with 59 Beyer).

7. FANCY HENRY (Henrythenavigator - Pete's Fancy) sold for $85,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to Grade 2 Swaps Stakes and Grade 2 San Diego Handicap winner Tres Borrachos (4-42, 962K, 1-4 at two, 4-35 routing) and stakes-winning turfer Chinglish (5-18, 149K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 routing) by four-time Group 1 turf winner Henrythenavigator (6-11, 2.7M, 2-4 at two, 6-10 on turf) a first-crop stallion that is 1-6 (17%, $1.03 ROI) with juvenile debut runners in North America. The stakes-winning dam (10-40, 405K, 5-18 routing, cost 37.9K as yearling) has foaled four winners from five runners (1-3 with 2yos, 1-3 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Byzantine (8-37, 565K, 2-6 routing) and stakes-winner Roses 'N' Wine (4-19, 336K, 1-5 at two, 3-12 routing). Peteski is 2-12 (17%, $3.70 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Wayne Catalano is 3-23 (13%, $0.73 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic maiden claimers (1-7, 14%, $0.74 ROI at Keeneland). Catalano is 11-63 (17%, $2.56 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The June 25, July 3 workouts match uncoupled stablemate Fear the Kitten. The July 13 workout matches Catalano's 3-year-old filly Royal Lucy (finished eighth in $25,000 maiden claiming debut on turf at Arlington on September 3 with 38 Beyer).

8. GRAND MAST (Mizzen Mast - Grandiosa) sold for $80,000 as a yearling and was purchased for $150,000 in March after breezing a furlong in 11 seconds.  He is by Grade 1 Malibu Stakes winner Mizzen Mast (5-11, 554K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 1-1 routing), a stallion that is 13-176 (7%) with juvenile debut runners (3-51, 6%, $0.78 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The unraced dam has foaled one winner from one runner (1-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic and Grade 1 Whitney Handicap winner Awesome Again (9-12, 4.3M, 9-11 routing) and Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Grade 1 Grey Stakes winner Macho Uno (6-14, 1.8M, 3-4 at two, won debut, 5-11 routing). El Prado is 7-66 (11%, $1.38 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Todd Pletcher is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers on synthetic (0-1 at Keeneland). Pletcher is 37-111 (33%, $2.33 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The October 4, October 11, October 18 workouts mat Pletcher juvenile Holiday High (36 Beyer on dirt).

SELECTIONS:
1. Alimony Cobra
2. Greengrassofyoming
3. Tates Humor

THE PLAY:
Alimony Cobra to WIN at 3-1 odds or greater

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Race 7
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

ANALYSIS:

1. TIZ RESPLENDENT (Tiznow - Resplendency) is by four-time Grade 1 winner Tiznow (Breeders' Cup Classic twice, Super Derby, Santa Anita Handicap, 8-15, 6.4M, unraced at two, 0-1 sprinting), a stallion that is 22-267 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (2-63, 3%, $0.37 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The multiple stakes-winning dam (5-16, 329K, 1-3 at two, 5-12 sprinting, cost 500K as yearling) has foaled one winner from three runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters). The second dam is juvenile Grade 3-placed sprinter Doppio Espresso (1-5, 47K, 1-5 at two, 1-4 sprinting). Tale of the Cat is 7-66 (11%, $1.82 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Charles Lopresti is 1-10 (10%, $5.30 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (0-7 at Keeneland). Lopresti is 0-9 with all debut runners in 2012. According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 19, Tiz Resplendent was "going easily at the finish, better than The Grange."  That one is an unraced juvenile filly.

2. PRAIA (Distorted Humor - Quero Quero) is by Grade 2 Commonwealth Stakes and Grade 2 Churchill Downs Handicap winner Distorted Humor (8-23, 769K, 7-13 sprinting routing), a stallion that is 55-324 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (5-47, 11%, $0.89 ROI           with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam won the Grade 2 Honeymoon Handicap on turf (4-18, 409K, 0-1 sprinting, cost 55K as yearling) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to three-time Grade 1 winner Housebuster (Jerome Handicap, Vosburgh Stakes, Carter Handicap, 15-22, 1.2M, 2-3 at two, 11-16 sprinting), Grade 3-placed sprinter Maison de Reve (9-21, 181K, 2-2 at two, 9-20 sprinting), juvenile stakes-placed (Japan) Yashima Japan and stakes-winning sprinter Cat Buster (4-15, 147K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 4-13 sprinting). Royal Academy is 7-41 (17%, $1.61 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Ken McPeek is 7-73 (10%, $1.23 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (3-51, 6%, $0.71 ROI at Keeneland).  McPeek is 4-47 (8%, $0.94 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for September 29, Praia gave a "good finish, well in front of La Madeleine."  A week later, she gave a "good gate effort, half a length better than La Madeleine."  That one is an unraced juvenile filly. On October 12, Praia "is getting better, was well in front of Mystical Dreamer."  That one is an unraced juvenile filly. The September 1, September 8, September 15 workouts match McPeek's juvenile filly Kimberly Jean (finished fifth in maiden special weight debut on polytrack at Keeneland on October 5 with 69 Beyer). The October 18 workout matches McPeek's juvenile filly Hitechnoweenie (66 Beyer top on turf).

3. FRENCH LICK (Malibu Moon - Frio Town) sold for $80,000 as a yearling, was purchased for $400,000 in March after breezing a furlong in 10.2 seconds and is a half-sister to Grade 2 Bing Crosby Handicap winner Beau's Town (13-23, 697K, 12-22 sprinting). The sire is juvenile sprint winner Malibu Moon (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 56-339 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (15-69, 22%, $1.86 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The unraced dam (cost 11K at two) has foaled five winners from seven runners (5-7 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 1-placed router Miss Delice (1-14, 54K, 1-7 at two, 1-6 sprinting), stakes-winning sprinter Cagna (5-26, 153K, 0-1 at two, 5-23 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winner Playcaller (5-10, 128K, 2-5 at two, won debut, 3-5 sprinting). Kerosene doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Tom Proctor is 4-55 (7%, $1.29 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (0-12 at Keeneland). Proctor is 5-43 (11%, $2.13 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 20 workout matches Proctor's juvenile filly Comprende (finished eleventh in maiden special weight debut over polytrack at Keeneland on October 5 with 33 Beyer). The August 26 workout matches Proctor's 3-year-old Temeraine (finished fourth in an 'n2x' allowance on grass at Kentucky Downs on September 15 with 73 Beyer). The October 10 and October 16 workouts match Proctor's juvenile filly Rare Earth (finished seventh in $50,000 maiden claiming debut over polytrack at Keeneland on October 21 with 34 Beyer).

4. FEATURPRESENTATION (Harlington - Fair and Lively) was bought back for $70,000 as a yearling and is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Chloe W (0-5, 23K, 0-2 at two, 0-4 sprinting). ).  The first-crop sire won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap (6-10, 370K, 1-1 at two) and is 2-43 (5%) with juveniles. The dam won sprinting (1-9, 69K, 1-5 sprinting) and has foaled four winners from six runners (1-4 with 2yos, 3-6 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Fair Margarita (4-17, 125K, 4-12 sprinting). Trainer Lance Stokes is 0-5 over the past five years with second-time juveniles.

5. BEAUTIFUL MISS (Tapit - Instant Coverage) was bought back for $190,000 as a yearling and sold for $475,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 10 seconds.  She is by Grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes winner Tapit (3-6, 557K, 2-2 at two), a stallion that is 28-227 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (9-75, 12%, $1.15 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). The dam won sprinting (1-9, 34K, 1-8 sprinting, cost 300K at two) and has foaled one winner from one runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed sprinter Talullah Lula (1-8, 95K, 1-6 at two, 1-4 sprinting). Storm Cat is 15-123 (12%, $1.94 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Jonathan Sheppard is 3-18 (17%, $3.12 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (1-2, 50%, $4.10 ROI at Keeneland). Sheppard is 5-40 (13%, $1.98 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 11, Beautiful Miss gave a "good effort..., held a slight edge on Remember Then."  That one, a juvenile filly trained by Jonathan Sheppard, finished first in her maiden special weight debut at Keeneland on October 19 with a 62 Beyer). Nine days later, Beautiful Miss "finished strongly, put away E Cs Favorite in the stretch, Napravnik up."  E C's Favorite is Beautiful Miss' uncoupled stablemate this afternoon.  The August 18, September 1, September 14 workouts match Remember Then. 

6. MY PRINCESS DAWN (Master Command - Princess Grand) sold for $31,000 in May after breezing a furlong in 10.3 seconds.  She is by Grade 2 Meadowlands Cup and Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap winner Master Command (8-17, 1.1M, 0-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 4-42 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (3-28, 11%, $1.859 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). The dam won sprinting (1-4, 16K, 0-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting, cost 230K at two) and has foaled three winners from four runners (2-4 with sprinters). This is the female family of juvenile Group 3 turf winner (Italy) Balqis. Grand Slam is 10-71 (14%, $1.97 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Michael Stidham is 13-53 (25%, $2.27 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (3-12, 25%, $2.51 ROI at Keeneland). Stidham is 3-35 (8%, $1.07 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 3, My Princess Dawn gave a "good gate work, was in hand against Dry Humor and Raglin River."  Dry Humor and Raglin River are both unraced 3-year-old colts.  A week later, My Princess Dawn "went well with Graham up, easily better than Dorsett."  That one is an unraced juvenile colt.  On October 17, My Princess Dawn "continues to train forwardly, better than Abundantly Clear and Dorsett from the gate."  Abundantly Clear is an unraced juvenile filly. The September 26 workout matches Stidham's 3-year-old Proper Empire (finished second in maiden special weight on dirt at Hawthorne on October 21 with 62 Beyer).

7. CIVILITY PLEDGE (Hard Spun - Sweet Minister) sold for $80,000 as a yearling and is a half-sister to Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes winner Sinister Minister (2-13, 541K, 0-1 at two, 1-4 sprinting) by Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes winner Hard Spun (7-13, 2.6M, 3-3 at two, 4-4 sprinting), a stallion that is 6-80 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (7-62, 12%, $1.41 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The stakes-winning dam (7-24, 139K, 2-6 at two, won debut, 5-15 sprinting, cost 8K as yearling) has foaled four winners from six runners (0-4 with 2yos, 2-6 with sprinters).  The third dam is stakes-placed juvenile Sugar Gold (1-4, 17K, 1-4 at two). The Prime Minister is 4-15 (27%, $3.47 ROI)             as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Victoria Oliver is 3-21 (14%, $9.08 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (1-7, 14%, $10.17 ROI at Keeneland). Oliver is 1-6 (17%, $11.87 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 19, Civility Pledge "broke 4-5 lengths in front of Honey Lake and maintained a 2 length advantage at the wire."  Honey Lake is an unraced juvenile filly. The September 15 workout matches Oliver's juvenile filly Liberated (finished third in maiden special weight over polytrack at Keeneland on October 5 with 73 Beyer). The September 15 workout matches Oliver's 3-year-old filly Clear Danger (finished fourth in 'n1x' optional claimer on dirt at Hoosier on September 22 with 65 Beyer). The September 29 workout matches Oliver's 3-year-old filly Confession (finished fourth in an 'n1x' allowance over polytrack at Keeneland on October 19 with 74 Beyer).

8. SURPRISE SURPRISE (More Than Ready - Anitas Surprise) is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Another Anita (5-18, 126K, 0-7 sprinting) by Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes winner More Than Ready (7-17, 1.0M, 5-7 at two, won debut, 7-9 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 40-368 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (8-44, 18%, $2.96 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). The multiple stakes-winning dam (14-57, 405K, 2-11 at two, 5-22 sprinting) has foaled three winners from four runners (1-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Archtekton (23-123, 302K, 1-4 at two, 0-3 sprinting). Mr. Redoy doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Phil Sims is 4-44 (9%, $2.41 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (3-29, 10%, $2.57 ROI at Keeneland). Sims is 1-9 (11%, $2.69 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012.

9. PRETTYHOTPRINCESS (Stormy Atlantic - Nijinskys Princess) was bought back for $50,000 as a yearling and is by multiple stakes-winning sprinter Stormy Atlantic (6-15, 148K, 0-1 at two, 6-15 sprinting), a stallion that is 51-484 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (2-65, 3%, $0.34 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). The unplaced dam (0-4, 2K, 0-4 at two, 0-1 sprinting) has foaled five winners from five runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 San Simeon Handicap winner Naninja (9-34, 415K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 0-1 sprinting), Irish stakes-placed turfer Fantasy Royale and multiple French stakes-placed turfer Limerence.  The dam is a full sister to Grade 2 Bashford Manor Stakes winner Dance Master (4-19, 196K, 2-9 at two, 4-17 sprinting). Gulch is 7-50 (14%, $2.36 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Eric Reed is 8-78 (10%, $1.05 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (1-32, 3%, $0.13 ROI at Keeneland). Reed is 4-40 (10%, $0.94 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 21, August 31, September 7, September 18 workouts match Reed's juvenile filly Sue Me Baby (finished sixth in maiden special weight debut over polytrack at Keeneland on October 19 with 17 Beyer).

10. GREAT RED BEAUTY (Greatness - Golden Billie), foaled in Florida, was bought back for $19,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 10. seconds.  She is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Golden Gator (18-108, 310K, 1-1 at two, 17-96 sprinting) by sprint winner Greatness (2-10, 79K, 2-10 sprinting), a stallion that is 40-257 (16%) with juveniles.  The winning dam (8-85, 85K, 1-13 sprinting) has foaled three winners from six runners (1-4 with 2yos, 2-6 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Rocky Billy (7-44, 94K, 0-4 at two, 2-18 sprinting) and stakes-placed Private Billy (21-146, 227K, 1-26 sprinting). Trainer David Kassen is 2-25 (8%, $2.47 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles (1-2, 50%, $29.00 ROI at Keeneland). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 17, Great Red Beauty "had a good energetic finish."  Shouldn't be too far off the leaders when the real racing begins and has the experience edge.

11. E C'S FAVORITE (English Channel - Marie J) is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 3-placed Sisti's Pride (1-10, 70K, 1-6 at two, 1-5 sprinting) by a six-time Grade 1 turf winner (United Nations Stakes twice, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational twice, Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, Breeders' Cup Turf, 13-23, 5.3M, 1-1 at two) that is 5-57 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (4-56, 7%, $3.57 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was Grade 3-placed (2-11, 139K, 1-5 at two, 0-2 sprinting, cost 1M at two) and has foaled four winners from six runners (1-5 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile In On the Secret (2-23, 86K, 0-7 at two, 0-2 sprinting), stakes-placed sprinter Bright Feather (3-17, 105K) and Grade 3-placed router Chekhov (1-17, 194K, 0-1 at two). Mr. Prospector is 1-41 (2%, $0.33 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Jonathan Sheppard is 3-18 (17%, $3.12 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (1-2, 50%, $4.10 ROI at Keeneland). Sheppard is 5-40 (13%, $1.98 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 13, E C's Favorite gave a "good breeze, not asked for effort."

12. BELLINIZIA (Jump Start - Tuscany Towne) is by Grade 2 Saratoga Special Stakes winner Jump Start (2-5, 221K, 2-5 at two, won debut, 2-3 sprinting), a stallion that is 18-202 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (1-28, 4%, $0.44 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). This is the first starter from the unraced dam.  This is the female family of multiple stakes-winner Spanish Drummer (12-27, 272K, 1-3 at two, 11-21 sprinting). Demidoff is 1-6 (17%, $0.63 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Jeff Thornbury is 4-41 (10%, $1.83 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (1-8, 13%, $1.77 ROI at Keeneland). Thornbury is 1-6 (17%, $2.57 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 13, Bellinizia gave a "good gate breeze, held a slight advantage on Thunder Maiden."  That one is an unraced 3-year-old filly.  Six mornings later, she "continues to improve, pulled away from Pennys Deputy and Thunder Maiden, from the gate, Sanchez up."  Penny's Deputy is an unraced 3-year-old colt.  The July 19, July 25, August 1, August 9, August 18, August 25, September 1, October 6 workouts match Thornbury's juvenile filly Souparion (finished seventh in maiden special weight debut over polytrack at Keeneland on October 19 with 9 Beyer). The September 8 workout matches Thornbury's 3-year-old filly Ms Hoochie Coochie (finished third in maiden special weight debut on dirt at Hoosier on October 5 with 36 Beyer). The October 6 workout matches Thornbury's 4-year-old Strong Appeal (82 Beyer top on polytrack, entered in today's sixth race).

SELECTIONS:
1. Civility Pledge
2. Praia
3. Great Red Beauty

THE PLAY:
Civility Pledge to WIN and PLACE at 8-1 odds or greater.

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