10/18/2012 1:44PM

Keeneland Babies for Oct. 19, 2012

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies!  I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet.  In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Keeneland Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile maiden race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.  Selections and wagering strategy will be presented for non-maiden races.

NOTE: Find Saturday and Sunday Keeneland Babies analysis in DRF GamePlan

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Friday, October 19, 2012

Race 2
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($30,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $18,000

ANALYSIS:

1. CANTERRA (Elite Squadron - Miss Represented) sold for $15,000 as a yearling, was purchased for $20,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 10.2 seconds and is a half-sister to stakes-winner Boots Are Walking (17-76, 402K, 1-2 at two, 13-55 sprinting). The first-crop sire won the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes (5-14, 507K, 0-2 at two, 5-13 sprinting) and is 0-4 with juvenile debut runners.  The unraced dam (cost 42K as yearling) has foaled two winners from five runners (2-3 with 2yos, 2-5 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Lady Ann's Key (2-25, 25K, 2-10 at two), juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Lomax (2-6, 70K, 2-6 at two, won debut, 2-4 sprinting), multiple stakes-winner Icy Folly (4-25, 244K, 2-10 at two, won debut, 2-13 sprinting) and juvenile Grade 2-placed sprinter Tatum Canyon (1-5, 47K, 1-4 at two, 1-5 sprinting). Sovereign Dancer is 1-4 (25%, $1.90 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer David Fawkes is 15-104 (14%, $1.81 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers. Fawkes is 6-35 (17%, $1.79 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 25 workout matches Fawkes' juvenile filly Holiday Drama (finished seventh in maiden special weight debut on dirt at Monmouth on September 2 with 26 Beyer). The September 8 workout matches Fawkes' 3-year-old filly Chambord Castle (finished second in $25,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Parx on September 17 with 47 Beyer). The October 6 workout matches Fawkes' 3-year-old Fort Boonesborough (75 Beyer on dirt). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 6, Canterra gave a "good head-up breeze with Fort Boonesborough."

2. CENTRIPETAL FORCE (Spellbinder - Pongee) is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Mississippi Chat (2-11, 55K, 2-8 sprinting) by Grade 2 San Antonio Handicap winner Spellbinder (6-29, 499K, 1-5 at two, 1-8 sprinting), a stallion that is 4-20 (20%) with juveniles.  The dam won sprinting (2-3, 20K, 2-3 sprinting) and has foaled seven winners from ten runners (0-4 with 2yos, 7-10 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Raven Red (8-42, 112K, 0-4 at two, 3-27 sprinting), British Group 1-placed juvenile turfer Juyush (12-54, 213K, 1-5 at two) and juvenile stakes-winner Silken Cat (3-4, 102K, 3-3 at two, 2-2 sprinting). Trainer Mike Morrison is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles going sprint to route.

3. A P ZAPPER (Ghostzapper - Indy Queen), foaled in Louisiana, sold for $28,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 10.4 seconds.  She is by four-time Grade 1 winner Ghostzapper (Vosburgh Stakes, Breeders' Cup Classic, Woodward Stakes, Metropolitan Handicap, 9-11, 3.4M, 1-2 at two, 5-7 sprinting) a stallion that is 41-228 (18%) with juveniles. The dam was placed (0-6, 4K, 0-3 sprinting, cost 460K as weanling) and has foaled three winners from six runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to three-time Grade 1 winner Free House (Santa Anita Derby, Pacific Classic, Santa Anita Handicap, 9-22, 3.1M, 2-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting). Trainer Jay Severs (the assistant to suspended Bret Calhoun) is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles.

4. RAVER (Tiznow - Ranter) is by four-time Grade 1 winner Tiznow (Breeders' Cup Classic twice, Super Derby, Santa Anita Handicap, 8-15, 6.4M, unraced at two, 0-1 sprinting), a stallion that is 94-669 (14%) with juveniles.  The unraced dam has foaled three winners from four runners (1-2 with 2yos, 3-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes and Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Pulpit (4-6, 728K, 1-1 sprinting) and Group 3-placed turfer Urban Poet.  The dam is a half-sister to
stakes-placed turfer Tell It (4-18, 162K, 1-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting). Trainer Tom Proctor is 1-10 (10%, $1.26 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping into maiden claimers (0-2 at Keeneland).  Tired badly in first try over a synthetic surface, but looms a strong pace factor as she drops in class.

5. LITTLE SHEBA (Kafwain - Bob's Barb) is by Grade 2 Norfolk Stakes and Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes winner Kafwain (4-11, 715K, 3-8 at two, 3-6 sprinting), a stallion that is 17-158 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (1-35, 3%, $0.31 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The unplaced dam (0-4, 0-4 at two, 0-2 sprinting) has foaled one winner from one runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Midnite Watchman (2-21, 21K, 1-6 at two, won debut, 2-17 sprinting) and juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Fandabidoo (2-15, 53K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 1-8 sprinting). Lord Avie is 1-22 (5%, $0.85 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer James Baker is 0-10 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers (0-2 at Keeneland). Baker is 0-12 with all debut runners in 2012. The August 22, September 5, September 12, October 1 workouts match Baker's juvenile filly Indygo Fashion (scheduled to debut in Thursday's fifth race).  The September 25 workout matches Baker's 4-year-old Sports Day (finished second in a $15,000 maiden claimer on polytrack at Turfway on September 29 with 51 Beyer).

6. BOX OFFICE SMASH (Dixie Union - Bees) is by Grade 1 Haskell Invitational and Grade 1 Malibu Stakes winner Dixie Union (7-12, 1.2M, 4-6 at two, won debut, 5-7 sprinting), a stallion that is 33-283 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (6-50, 12%, $2.03 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was stakes-placed routing (2-8, 105K, 1-2 at two) and has foaled one winner from one runner (1-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 Comely Stakes winner Madison's Charm (3-14, 202K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and multiple Irish Group 3-placed turfer Pebble Island (1-6, 36K). Rahy is 6-47 (11%, $3.29 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012. Trainer David Carroll is 2-21 (10%, $2.04 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers (2-5, 40%, $8.60 ROI at Keeneland). Carroll is 1-9 (11%, $8.87 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 20, September 24 workouts match Carroll's juvenile filly Readyandaway (finished third in $30,000 maiden claiming debut on polytrack at Turfway on September 30 with 44 Beyer). The September 3 workout matches Carroll's 3-year-old filly Miss C C (scheduled to debut in today's third race). The September 30 workout matches Carroll's juvenile filly Silver Strike (finished first in maiden special weight debut on polytrack at Keeneland on October 5 with 75 Beyer).

7. TENSAS GROUP (Horse Greeley - Croupier), foaled in Louisiana, is a half-sister to stakes-placed Senior (4-27, 148K, 0-2 at two) by Grade 2 Del Mar Futurity winner Horse Greeley (2-6, 225K, 2-4 at two, 2-5 sprinting), a first-crop sire that is 2-35 (6%) with juveniles.  The stakes-placed dam (4-16, 161K, 1-5 at two, 1-4 sprinting) has foaled three winners from five runners (0-3 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Padlock (13-38, 236K, 1-2 at two, 9-27 sprinting). Trainer Jay Severs (the assistant to suspended Bret Calhoun) is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles.

8. B FOR BABA (Bernstein - Euroslew) is by two-time Irish Group 3 winner Bernstein (4-8, 173K, 2-3 at two), a stallion that is 125-759 (16%) with juveniles. The dam was placed sprinting (0-1, 6K, 0-1 sprinting, cost 375K as weanling) and this is her first starter.  The second dam is stakes-winning turfer European Rose (3-5, 67K, 1-1 at two). Trainer Andrew McKeever is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix.

9. CAROLINA CRUISIN' (Rockport Harbor - Mondenschein) is by Grade 2 Remsen Stakes winner Rockport Harbor (5-8, 324K, 4-4 at two, 2-2 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 55-419 (13%) with juveniles.  The dam was placed sprinting (0-2, 16K, 0-2 at two, cost 100K as yearling) and has foaled two winners from three runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Nault (3-17, 90K, 1-4 at two, 0-2 sprinting). Trainer Ian Wilkes is 1-11 (9%, $0.67 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden claimers (0-1 at Keeneland).

10. CAUTIOUS (Survivalist - Santo Mio) is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner (Panama) Lucky Halo (4-9, 21K, 2-6 sprinting), stakes-winner Santo Gato (4-24, 163K, 0-5 at two, 2-13 sprinting) and Grade 3-placed Evil Kitten (2-11, 156K, 1-6 at two, 2-5 sprinting) by Grade 3 Gotham Stakes winner Survivalist (5-15, 478K, 1-2 at two, 0-4 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 1-45 (2%) with juvenile debut runners (2-23, 9%, $0.66 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam won sprinting (2-19, 94K, 0-3 at two, 2-12 sprinting, cost 40K as yearling) and has foaled eight winners from eight runners (3-7 with 2yos, 7-8 with sprinters). This is the female family of Grade 2 Eddie Read Handicap and Grade 2 Stars and Stripes Handicap winner Sharrood. Southern Halo is 4-37 (11%, $1.65 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Michael Maker is 7-42 (17%, $1.42 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers (1-3, 33%, $4.53 ROI at Keeneland). Maker is 8-44 (18%, $1.52 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012.

11. DERBY ROSE (Van Nistelrooy - Lin Mi Lin) is by Irish juvenile Group 2 turf winner Van Nistelrooy (3-6, 229K, 3-6 at two), a stallion that is 44-406 (11%) with juveniles. The unplaced dam (0-7, 0-4 at two, 0-6 sprinting, cost 35K at two) has foaled two winners from five runners (0-3 with 2yos, 2-5 with sprinters). This is the female family of Grade 3 Hawthorne Derby winner Stay Sound (7-28, 474K, 1-6 at two, 0-2 sprinting). Trainer George Bush is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden claimers.

12. LIL MISS RICHIE (Half Ours - Dazzling Contrast) was bought back for $14,000 as a yearling, sold for $57,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 10.2 seconds and claimed for $25,000 in August.  She is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Hug It Out (3-15, 80K, 1-5 at two, 3-10 sprinting and Grade 2 West Virginia Derby winner Macho Macho (3-8, 742K, 2-4 sprinting) by Grade 2 Richter Scale Sprint Championship winner Half Ours (5-7, 319K, 2-2 at two, 4-4 sprinting), a stallion that is 20-117 (17%) with juveniles. The dam won routing (1-6, 20K, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled four winners from five runners (3-4 with 2yos, 4-5 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Classy Prospector (4-20, 96K, 2-6 sprinting) and Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile winner Designed for Luck (11-30, 1.0M, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting). Trainer Larry Rivelli is 13-69 (19%, $1.72 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in maiden claimers.

SELECTIONS:
1. Box Office Smash
2. Raver
3. Little Sheba

THE PLAY:
Box Office Smash to WIN and PLACE at 8-1 odds or greater.

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Race 4
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-olds
Purse $52,000

SELECTIONS (turf only):
1. Sonofasamurai
2. Bambazonki
3. Jack N John

THE PLAY (turf only):
Sonofasamurai - Bambazonki EXACTA
Sonofasamurai - Jack N John EXACTA

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Race 5
About 7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

ANALYSIS:

1. SUE ME BABY (Unbridled's Song - Fortune Teller) sold for $20,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Unbridled's Song (5-12, 1.3M, 2-3 at two, won debut, 2-4 sprinting), a stallion that is 42-329 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (8-63, 13%, $0.99 ROI with all debut runners in 2012. This is the first starter from the unplaced dam (0-2, 1K, 0-1 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Cogburn (4-33, 153K, 1-6 at two, won debut, 1-4 sprinting). Forestry is 6-56 (11%, $1.06 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Eric Reed is 8-76 (11%, $1.07 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (1-30, 3%, $0.14 ROI at Keeneland). Reed is 4-36 (11%, $1.04 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 12 workout matches Reed's juvenile filly Last Chance to See (scheduled to make debut in Thursday's fifth race). The September 12 workout matches Reed's 4-year-old filly Mai Tai Mama (finished third in $5,000 starter allowance over polytrack at Keeneland on October 5 with 71 Beyer). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 2, Sue Me Baby "easily bested Prettyhotprincess in a nice work." That one is an unraced juvenile filly.  A week later, Sue Me Baby "finished with good energy."

2. IN STEP DANCER (Student Council - Out of Step) is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Tender Toes (6-34, 109K, 0-1 at two, 6-33 sprinting) and multiple Grade 2-placed Tangled Tango (5-22, 293K, 1-3 sprinting) by Grade 1 Pacific Classic and Grade 1 Pimlico Special winner Student Council (8-31, 1.5M, 0-3 at two, 0-3 in main track sprints), a first-crop stallion that is 1-16 (6%, $0.51 ROI) with juvenile debut runners. The unraced dam has foaled six winners from six runners (2-4 with 2yos, debut winner, 5-6 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winner Haitian Vacation (3-21, 151K, 2-6 at two). Affirmed is 3-46 (7%, $0.89 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Steve Asmussen is 21-163 (13%, $1.41 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (9-57, 16%, $1.72 ROI at Keeneland). Asmussen is 12-96 (12%, $1.34 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 10 workout matches Asmussen's juvenile filly Alli Leigh (finished third in maiden special weight debut on dirt at Hoosier on September 19 with 34 Beyer).

3. PROPELLERONEWAY (Malibu Moon - Catch the Blue Hat) is by juvenile sprint winner Malibu Moon (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 181-960 (19%) with juveniles.  The dam placed on turf in France (0-2, 9K, 0-1 at two) and has foaled no winners from two runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Irish juvenile Group 2 turf winner Antonius Pius (2-14, 563K, 2-3 at two). Trainer Andrew McKeever is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix.

4. MISS LAMOUR (Mr. Greeley - Batique) is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3-placed Tejida (4-23, 278K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) by a three-time Grade 3 winner (Lafayette Stakes, Swale Stakes, Spectacular Bid Stakes, 5-16, 474K, 2-6 at two, 4-11 sprinting) that is 37-366 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (3-43, 7%, $1.88 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). The dam won the Grade 3 My Charmer Handicap and Grade 3 Matchmaker Stakes (7-25, 402K, 1-1 at two, 1-6 sprinting) and has foaled three winners from six runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed Trensa (3-19, 179K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting). Storm Cat is 14-119 (12%, $1.97 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Michael Matz is 0-7 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (0-7 at Keeneland). Matz is 2-29 (6%, $1.82 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 29, September 13 workouts match Matz's juvenile filly City At Dawn (finished ninth in maiden special weight debut over polytrack at Keeneland on October 17 with 30 Beyer). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 8, Miss Lamour "came to the wire full of run, could have done better."

5. BLUE VIOLET (Curlin - Gasia) is by a first-crop sire that won seven Grade 1 races (Breeders' Cup Classic, Preakness Stakes, Jockey Club Gold Cup twice, Dubai World Cup, Stephen Foster Handicap, Woodward Stakes, 11-16, 10.5M, 1-1 in main track sprints) and is 5-31 (16%) with juveniles.  The dam was a multiple stakes-winner (6-18, 434K, 2-3 at two, 1-3 sprinting, cost 12K as yearling) and has foaled no winners from two runners (0-1 with 2yos). This is the female family of Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes winner Shoal Creek (2-18, 135K, 2-8 at two, 1-5 sprinting). Trainer Larry Jones is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going route to sprint (0-1 at Keeneland).

6. SOUPARION (Alphabet Soup - Arion), foaled in Florida, was bought back for $17,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Alphabet Soup (10-24, 2.9M, 2-4 sprinting), a stallion that is 18-216 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (no debut winners in 2012).  The unraced dam has foaled no winners from one runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning turfer War Tigress (3-24, 171K, 3-4 at two, won debut). High Yield is 1-28 (4%, $0.77 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Jeff Thornbury is 2-27 (7%, $1.17 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (1-7, 14%, $2.02 ROI at Keeneland). Thornbury is 1-5 (20%, $3.08 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 18, October 12 workouts match Thornbury's 3-year-old filly La Stupenda (53 Beyer top on turf). The October 6 workout matches Thornbury's 4-year-old Strong Appeal (82 Beyer top on polytrack).

7. REMEMBER THEN (Pulpit - Owsley) sold for $350,000 as a yearling, is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer War Hoot (4-18, 212K) and Grade 1-placed router Arthur's Tale (2-14, 380K, 1-4 at two, 0-1 sprinting), and is a full sister to stakes-winning turfer Senada (2-21, 207K, 0-3 at two). She is by Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes and Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Pulpit (4-6, 728K, 1-1 sprinting), a stallion that is 43-343 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (6-41, 15%, $1.77 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). The dam won the Grade 2 New York Handicap and Grade 2 Galaxy Stakes (8-23, 865K) and has foaled three winners from three runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). This is the female family of Grade 3 Roamer Handicap and Grade 3 Assault Handicap winner Megaturn (6-25, 239K). Harlan doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012. Trainer Jonathan Sheppard is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (0-1 at Keeneland). Sheppard is 4-38 (10%, $1.86 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012.

8. BOLD KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - I'll Do More), foaled in Illinois, is by Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes winner Kitten's Joy (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 0-1 sprinting), a stallion that is 29-163 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (7-44, 16%, $1.90 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam won routing (1-7, 14K, 0-4 sprinting, cost 57K as yearling) and this is her first starter.  The third dam is stakes-placed sprinter Dream Launch. More Than Ready is 6-34 (18%, $1.24 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012. Trainer Wayne Catalano is 16-82 (20%, $1.38 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (1-14, 7%, $0.37 ROI at Keeneland). Catalano is 11-61 (18%, $2.65 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 11, Bold Kitten "was not hard ridden from the gate, held a slight edge on Fear The Kitten."  Fear the Kitten is an unraced juvenile.

SELECTIONS:
1. Bold Kitten
2. Sue Me Baby
3. Souparion

THE PLAY:
Bold Kitten - Sue Me Baby EXACTA
Bold Kitten - Souparion EXACTA

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