10/17/2012 2:21PM

Keeneland Babies for Oct. 18, 2012

Email

Welcome to Keeneland Babies!  I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet.  In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Keeneland Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile maiden race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.  Selections and wagering strategy will be presented for non-maiden races.

NOTE: Find Saturday and Sunday Keeneland Babies analysis in DRF GamePlan

***

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Race 1
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($30,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $18,000

ANALYSIS:

1. PILOT JON (Latent Heat - Best Landing) sold for $25,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to stakes-placed router Best Vow (4-19, 157K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) by Grade 1 Malibu Stakes winner Latent Heat (6-12, 450K, 0-1 at two, 5-8 sprinting), a stallion that is 7-43 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (3-48, 6%, $4.22 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The stakes-winning dam (11-31, 131K, 9-22 sprinting) has foaled two winners from two runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Speedland (22-70, 285K, 2-10 at two, 14-51 sprinting). Fiery Best doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Neil Pessin is 1-4 (25%, $1.95 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers (0-1 at Keeneland). Pessin is 2-5 (40%, $9.56 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012.

2. DUNBAR (Artie Schiller - Annapolitan) was bought back for $14,000 in June after breezing a furlong in 10.4 seconds.  He is by Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile winner Artie Schiller (10-22, 2.0M, 2-5 at two, won debut, 0-1 sprinting), a stallion that is 5-78 (6%) with juvenile debut runners (2-39, 5%, $0.38 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). This is the first starter from the winning dam (2-20, 16K, 0-3 at two, 0-11 sprinting, cost 5.5K as yearling). The third dam is stakes-placed sprinter Ice Magic (3-27, 25K, 0-1 at two, 3-26 sprinting).  Runaway Groom is 3-69 (4%, $2.14 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Phil Sims is 3-15 (20%, $4.82 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers (2-11, 18%, $3.70 ROI at Keeneland). Sims is 1-8 (13%, $3.03 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012.

3. HOWYADOODLIN (He's Crafty - Billie Bob), foaled in Florida, is by stakes-placed turfer He's Crafty (8-27, 298K, 1-3 sprinting), a first-crop stallion that is 0-2 with juveniles.  This is the first starter from the winning dam (1-13, 66K, 1-5 at two, 1-9 sprinting). The second dam is stakes-placed sprinter Purgatory (3-11, 94K, 1-3 at two, 3-8 sprinting). Trainer Wesley Ward is 1-11 (9%, $0.36 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping into maiden claimers following 61-180 day layoffs (1-1, 100%, $4.00 ROI at Keeneland).

4. EIGHT SHOOTERS (Dehere - Count On Wisdom) sold for $30,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 1 Champagne Stakes and Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes winner Dehere (6-9, 723K, 5-7 at two, 4-5 sprinting), a stallion that is 133-731 (18%) with juveniles. The unraced dam has foaled no winners from two runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 Toronto Cup Handicap winner Think Red (3-5, 152K), stakes-placed Hard Edge (7-38, 331K, 1-3 sprinting) and stakes-winner Count to Three (5-22, 398K, 2-4 sprinting). Trainer Ken McPeek is 2-12 (17%, $1.40 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going route to sprint on synthetic (0-3 at Keeneland).

5. LARRY ZIP IT (Run Away and Hide - Caught Red Handed) sold for $4,700 as a yearling and is by Grade 2 Saratoga Special winner Run Away and Hide (3-3, 224K, 3-3 at two, 3-3 sprinting), a first-crop sire that is 11-52 (21%) with juveniles.  This is the first starter from the juvenile sprint-winning dam (1-6, 35K, 1-6 at two, 1-5 sprinting, cost 55K at two). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Zippy Shannon (7-18, 241K, 1-3 at two, 7-16 sprinting). Trainer Larry Lay is 3-9 (33%, $2.66 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping from maiden special weights (1-1, 100%, $9.00 ROI at Keeneland).

6. SEATOPEN MEMO (Badge of Silver - Vivine), claimed for $30,000 in June, is by Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap and Grade 2 San Gabriel Handicap winner Badge of Silver (7-16, 1.0M, 1-1 at two, 3-5 sprinting), a stallion that is 41-251 (16%) with juveniles.  The dam was placed on turf at two (0-4, 9K, 0-2 at two) and has foaled one winner from three runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters). The second dam is Grade 3 Ballston Spa Handicap winner Valor Lady (8-36, 479K, 1-7 at two, 1-6 sprinting). Trainer Cecil Borel is 0-4 over the past five years with juveniles dropping from maiden special weights (0-2 at Keeneland).

7. TY BOO (The Daddy - Gaye's Locket) sold for $10,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 2 Super Derby winner The Daddy (3-4, 517K, 2-3 sprinting), a stallion that is 4-38 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (2-19, 11%, $2.46 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam won sprinting (1-20, 30K, 1-7 at two, 1-6 sprinting) and has foaled seven winners from eight runners (2-5 with 2yos, 4-8 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Gallant Step (18-72, 355K, 18-72 sprinting), multiple juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Be Precise (7-49, 44K, 1-9 at two, 7-46 sprinting), juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Gaye's Valentine (2-13, 16K, 2-6 at two, won debut, 2-11 sprinting), stakes-placed sprinter Gaye's Express (1-9, 13K, 0-1 at two, 1-9 sprinting) and juvenile Grade 3-placed turfer Islamabad (2-7, 54K, 1-4 at two, won debut). Ogygian doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Greg Burchell is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners. Burchell is 0-3 with all debut runners in 2012.

8. BLUE DANUBE WALTZ (Bluegrass Cat - Waltzing With Deb) is a half-brother to Grade 2-placed router Wild Horses (5-20, 236K, 0-1 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and multiple stakes-placed turfer Waltzing With Blue (5-29, 180K, 0-4 at two) by Grade 1 Haskell Invitational winner Bluegrass Cat (5-11, 1.7M, 3-4 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 22-138 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (7-53, 13%, $1.82 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam won sprinting (2-20, 48K, 1-5 at two, 2-13 sprinting, cost 100K at two) and has foaled eight winners from eight runners (1-5 with 2yos, 2-7 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Proud to Reason (30-165, 286K, 0-13 at two, 2-28 sprinting), stakes-winner Smile On My Face (5-17, 87K, 4-5 at two, won debut, 3-11 sprinting) and Grade 3 What a Pleasure Stakes and Grade 3 Preview Stakes winner Suave Prospect (6-36, 730K, 3-10 at two, 1-6 sprinting). Robyn Dancer is 1-26 (4%, $1.37 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Tim Hamm is 2-40 (5%, $0.33 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers (0-1 at Keeneland). Hamm is 3-31 (9%, $1.27 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 30 workout matches Hamm's juvenile Chairman Garey (finished fourth in maiden special weight debut over Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs on September 26 with 44 Beyer).

9. GLADHANDER (Congrats - K. D.'s Shady Lady), reported as a gelding for the first time, was claimed for $35,000 in August and is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-winner Forestry Steel (4-32, 73K, 2-2 at two, 0-4 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winner Lady of Fifty (4-9, 170K, 3-4 at two, 2-5 sprinting).  Gladhander sold for $67,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 2 San Pasqual Handicap winner Congrats (7-26, 998K, 1-2 at two, 2-5 sprinting), a stallion that is 49-357 (14%) with juveniles. The dam was Grade 3-placed at two (1-14, 113K, 1-6 at two, 0-1 sprinting, cost $70,000 as yearling) and has foaled three winners from four runners (3-4 with juveniles, 1-3 with sprinters).  The second dam is stakes-winner Annie's Apple (13-37, 190K, 12-31 sprinting).  Trainer Michael Maker is 1-11 (9%, $0.43 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles off the claim. According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 7, Gladhander "went sharply, handled the surface well."  A week later, he "broke a little behind Box Office Appeal and was the better at the finish."  Box Office Appeal is an unraced juvenile filly. Tired badly in most recent start at Saratoga after being involved in a three-ply speed battle while on the rail.  Trainer Maker is 3-3 off the claim at this meet and Gladhander adds blinkers for this assignment.  Announced as a new gelding for the first time, Gladhander could attempt to control the pace.

10. RONSON (Southern Image - Rare Ribbon) sold for $16,000 as a yearling and is by three-time Grade 1 winner Southern Image (Malibu Stakes, Santa Anita Handicap, Pimlico Special Handicap, 6-8, 1.8M, 1-1 at two, 2-3 sprinting), a stallion that is 8-73 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (2-16, 13%, $1.30 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  This is the first starter from the sprint-winning dam (1-14, 35K, 0-1 at two, 1-8 sprinting). The third dam is Grade 1 Hollywood Oaks winner Prize Spot (5-21, 280K, 0-1 at two). Proudest Romeo doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Joe Deegan is 0-4 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers (0-1 at Keeneland). Deegan is 1-1 (100%, $12.20 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012.

11. BAHIA VIA (Stormy Atlantic - Cypriata) sold for $20,000 as a weanling, was purchased for $14,000 as a yearling and sold for $35,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 10.2 seconds.  He is by multiple stakes-winning sprinter Stormy Atlantic (6-15, 148K, 0-1 at two, 6-15 sprinting), a stallion that is 228-1532 (15%) with juveniles.  The stakes-winning dam (2-12, 59K, 1-6 sprinting) has foaled two winners from three runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-3 with sprinters). The second dam is Grade 1 Gamely Handicap winner Northern Aspen. Trainer Wesley Ward is 1-5 (20%, $0.78 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going route to sprint and dropping into maiden claimers.

12. LUNGS (Five Star Day - Ocean Salt) sold for $6,500 as a short yearling and is by Grade 2 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap winner Five Star Day (6-16, 575K, 6-15 sprinting), a stallion that is 87-485 (18%) with juveniles. The dam won sprinting (4-24, 105K, 0-6 at two, 4-19 sprinting, cost 33K as yearling) and has foaled three winners from six runners (1-5 with 2yos, 2-6 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Smoke (7-20, 190K, 0-3 sprinting). Trainer William Denzik Jr. is 1-4 (25%, $4.60 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping into maiden claimers (0-1 at Keeneland). 

SELECTIONS:
1. Gladhander
2. Ronson
3. Ty Boo

ANALYSIS:
Gladhander - Ronson EXACTA
Gladhander - Ty Boo EXACTA

***

Race 4
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

ANALYSIS:

1. YO BLUE (Johannesburg - Sparkling Blue), foaled in Florida, is by four-time juvenile Grade/Group 1 winner Johannesburg (7-10, 1.0M, 7-7 at two), a stallion that is 102-731 (14%) with juveniles.  The dam won sprinting (5-11, 99K, 0-1 at two, 5-11 sprinting, cost 70K as yearling) and has foaled three winners from five runners (1-3 with 2yos, 2-5 with sprinters). The dam is a full sister to stakes-winning sprinter Smoke Mountain (5-32, 182K, 0-4 at two, 5-25 sprinting).  Trainer Dale Romans is 2-6 (33%, $2.73 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to synthetic following 61-180 day layoff (1-3, 33%, $2.13 ROI at Keeneland).

2. SENIORITIS (Big Brown - She's a Lively One), foaled in Maryland, was bought back for $15,000 as a yearling and sold for $1,200 in February.  He is a half-brother to stakes-placed A Song in A Minor (4-13, 152K, 0-2 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and stakes-winner Shesgoldincolor (4-15, 95K, 0-1 at two, 3-10 sprinting) by four-time Grade 1 winner Big Brown (Kentucky Derby, Haskell Invitational, Florida Derby, Preakness Stakes, 7-8, 3.6M, 1-1 at two), a first-crop stallion that is 8-36 (22%) with juveniles. The stakes-winning dam (7-32, 243K, 1-3 at two, 6-24 sprinting, cost 13K as yearling) has foaled four winners from eight runners (0-6 with 2yos, 3-7 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Water Park (6-29, 172K, 6-24 sprinting). Trainer Pam Ross is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles.

3. GREENHAVENS REWARD (Grand Reward - Greenhaven Lane) is by Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap winner Grand Reward (4-24, 545K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 0-3 sprinting), a stallion that is 10-117 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (2-23, 9%, $1.05 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was a juvenile stakes-winning sprinter (1-13, 38K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 1-10 sprinting) and has foaled four winners from eight runners (0-4 with 2yos, 2-8 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Mumbliah (1-4, 46K, 1-1 at two, 1-3 sprinting). Ruthie's Native doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Tom Amoss is 4-25 (16%, $0.96 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (1-2, 50%, $3.90 ROI at Keeneland). Amoss is 9-30 (30%, $1.89 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 18 workout matches Amoss' juvenile filly Star Empress (0 Beyer on Tapeta). The September 27 workout matches Amoss' juvenile Saint Arbor (39 Beyer on dirt). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 4, Greenhavens Reward gave a "good energetic finish, 2-3 lengths better than Dynasheals."  Dynasheals is an Amoss-trained juvenile filly that finished third in a $30,000 claimer over the Keeneland polytrack on October 12 with a 50 Beyer).

4. WINNING CAUSE (Giant's Causeway - Raffishing Look) sold for $115,000 as a yearling, was bought back for $170,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 9.4 seconds and sold for $200,000 in May after breezing a furlong in 10.1 seconds.  He is by six-time Group 1 turf winner Giant's Causeway (9-13, 3.0M, 3-3 at two), a stallion that is 76-552 (14%) with juveniles.  The dam was a sprint winner in the slop (1-7, 17K, 1-1 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 Monrovia Handicap winner Society Hostess (8-22, 425K, 0-1 at two, 1-3 sprinting)  Trainer Todd Pletcher is 5-28 (18%, $0.86 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going route to sprint (0-2 at Keeneland). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 13, Winning Cause gave a "good workout, slightly better than Go Olivia Go." That one is an unraced juvenile filly.

5. OXBOW (Awesome Again - Tizamazing) sold for $250,000 as a yearling and is a full brother to stakes-winning router Awesome Patriot (3-7, 114K, 2-4 at two, 1-3 sprinting).  Oxbow is by Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic and Whitney Handicap winner Awesome Again (9-12, 4.3M, 0-1 sprinting), a stallion that is 86-590 (15%) with juveniles.  The unraced dam (a million-dollar yearling purchase) has foaled two winners from three runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters).  The dam is a full sister to four-time Grade 2 winner Budroyale (Mervyn LeRoy Handicap, San Bernadino Handicap, Goodwood Handicap, San Antonio Handicap, 17-52, 2.8M, 1-2 at two, 5-9 sprinting), four-time Grade 1 winner Tiznow (Breeders' Cup Classic twice, Super Derby, Santa Anita Handicap, 8-15, 6.4M, unraced at two, 0-1 sprinting), stakes-winning router Tizbud (2-8, 230K, 0-1 sprinting) and Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes winner Tizdubai (2-4, 117K, 2-2 at two, 2-2 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed router C'Mon Tiger (3-15, 137K, 0-3 sprinting). Wayne Lukas is 0-17 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix (0-3 at Keeneland).

6. MARCHMAN (Sharp Humor - Sookie Sookie) was bought back for $24,000 as a yearling and sold for $90,000 in April after breezing two furlongs in 21.2 seconds.  The sire won the Grade 2 Swale Stakes (4-10, 490K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 3-6 sprinting) and is 15-106 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (11-53, 21%, $2.14 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  This is the first starter from the unraced dam.  This is the female family of Grade 1 Gamely Stakes winner Citronnade (9-14, 864K, 1-3 sprinting). Indian Charlie is 3-42 (7%, $0.37 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Jay Severs is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (0-2 at Keeneland). Severs is 0-3 with all debut runners in 2012. The August 29, September 6 workouts match
Severs' juvenile Fight the Tide (finished seventh in maiden special weight debut over polytrack at Keeneland on October 12 with 46 Beyer).

7. ASUNDER (Stormy Atlantic - Love and Marry) sold for $170,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to stakes-placed sprinter Bang Bang Bang (8-28, 220K, 0-2 at two, 4-18 sprinting) and multiple Grade 1-placed juvenile Riveting Reason (1-17, 212K, 1-8 at two, 0-4 at sprinting) by multiple stakes-winning sprinter Stormy Atlantic (6-15, 148K, 0-1 at two, 6-15 sprinting), a stallion that is 228-1532 (15%) with juveniles.  The dam was a turf winner (3-11, 117K, 0-3 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled five winners from six runners (2-6 with 2yos, 2-5 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 Canadian Handicap winner Diadella (6-20, 563K, 0-2 at two), multiple stakes-winning router El Kingdom (4-20, 129K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winning sprinter Say a Novena (4-14, 329K, 3-7 at two, 4-12 sprinting). Trainer Graham Motion is 5-16 (31%, $2.35 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going route to sprint (0-2 at Keeneland).  Rallied nicely along the rail in turf sprint debut at Saratoga, but faltered badly when stretch out to 1 1/16 miles at Belmont.  The turnback in distance may be key.

8. HIP FOUR SIXTYNINE (Southern Image - Gentle Wave) sold for $4,500 as a yearling and was purchased for $56,000 in May after breezing a furlong in 10.2 seconds.  He is by three-time Grade 1 winner Southern Image (Malibu Stakes, Santa Anita Handicap, Pimlico Special Handicap, 6-8, 1.8M, 1-1 at two, 2-3 sprinting), a stallion that is 30-251 (12%) with juveniles.  The unraced dam has foaled two winners from four runners (0-4 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters in North America). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 Hill Prince Stakes winner Recommended List (6-19, 269K, 3-10 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and stakes-winning turfer Soccory (6-31, 303K, 0-5 at two, 0-2 sprinting). Trainer Bobby Barnett is 0-16 over the past five years with second-time juveniles (0-2 at Keeneland). Finished ahead of Art I Awesome at Hoosier.  That foe returned to win the Michigan Sire Stakes with a 55 Beyer. 

9. BLUE BLADE (Bluegrass Cat - Well Revered) was bought back for $10,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to Group 3-placed turfer Gold Bubbles (1-9, 72K, 1-6 at two) by Grade 1 Haskell Invitational winner Bluegrass Cat (5-11, 1.7M, 3-4 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 58-443 (13%) with juveniles.  The unplaced dam (0-2, 0-1 sprinting, cost 80K as yearling) has foaled one winner from three runners (1-3 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to British Group 3 turf winner Fahal (4-21, 179K, 3-7 at two). Trainer Desmond Fogarty is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles.

10. SIDEKICK (Street Sense - Softly) is by Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Kentucky Derby and Travers Stakes winner Street Sense (6-13, 4.3M, 2-5 at two, 1-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 18-136 (13%) with juveniles. The dam won the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Handicap (6-16, 373K, 0-2 at two, 0-4 sprinting) and has foaled three winners from four runners (2-3 with 2yos, 3-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 Hanshin Cup Handicap winner Coragil Cat (5-47, 247K, 1-17 sprinting) and juvenile stakes-placed router Spring Eclipse (1-12, 48K, 1-7 at two, 1-5 sprinting).
Trainer Carl Nafzger is 3-42 (7%, $1.76 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles (0-8 at Keeneland). Prompted the pace over a speed-favoring Ellis Park surface in his first start with Lasix and should be a strong early presence here.

SELECTIONS:
1. Asunder
2. Sidekick
3. Hip Four Sixtynine

THE PLAY:

***

Race 5
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($30,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $18,000

1. I'M SO VAIN (Purim - Vain Vixen) sold for $2,500 as a yearling and is by Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes winner Purim (9-23, 928K, 2-8 routing), a stallion that is 10-89 (11%) with juveniles.  The dam was a juvenile winner (3-7, 76K, 2-5 at two, 1-1 routing, cost 6K as yearling) and has foaled one winner from two runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Two Sixty Four (7-19, 197K, 6-16 routing) and multiple stakes-placed sprinter Market Psychology (4-12, 174K, 1-2 at two, 0-1 routing). Trainer Tim Hamm is 5-23 (22%, $1.17 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping from maiden special weights (0-2 at Keeneland). Hasn't broken well in her last two starts, but may work out a nice pace-tracking, ground-saving journey from the rail as she drops into a maiden claimer for the first time.

2. QUEENIE'S GOLD (Tapit - Fired Gold) was bought back for $45,000 as a yearling and sold for $135,000 in March after breezing a furlong in 10.4 seconds.  She is by Grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes winner Tapit (3-6, 557K, 2-2 at two, 3-6 routing), a stallion that is 98-641 (15%) with juveniles.  The dam won on turf (1-10, 47K) and has foaled two winners from three runners (0-2 with 2yos). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Devotion Unbridled (4-12, 163K, 4-10 routing) and multiple stakes-winning turfer Snow Cone (4-25, 353K, 2-7 at two, 0-1 routing). Trainer Larry Rivelli is 2-9 (22%, $2.75 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping into maiden claimers. Saved ground at Arlington on September 15, but was forced to check when the inner rail fell.  Drops into a maiden claimer for the first time and can't be dismissed.

3. INDYGO FASHION (Indygo Shiner - La Trillium) was bought back for $24,000 as a weanling and sold for $12,000 as a yearling.  She is by Grade 3 Jefferson Cup winner Indygo Shiner (4-12, 444K, 1-3 at two, 1-4 routing), a stallion that is 2-24 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (2-25, 8%, $3.51 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was Grade 3-placed sprinting (5-17, 236K, 1-2 routing) and has foaled no winners from one runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers). The third dam is multiple stakes-winning turfer Songlines (7-19, 207K). Deputy Commander is 3-34 (9%, $3.86 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer James Baker is 0-10 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers (0-2 at Keeneland). Baker is 0-12 with all debut runners in 2012. The August 22, September 5, September 12, October 1 workouts match Baker's juvenile filly Little Sheba (scheduled to debut in Friday's second race).

4. LUVMEALLDAYINDYUSA (Chelokee - Indy U S A), foaled in Pennsylvania, is by Grade 3 Northern Dancer Stakes winner Chelokee (5-10, 385K, 1-3 at two, 5-9 routing), a first-crop stallion that is 1-11 (9%) with juveniles.  The dam won sprinting (8-27, 143K) and this is her first starter.  Trainer Eric Reed is 2-29 (7%, $0.37 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going sprint to route (0-2 at Keeneland).

5. LUCE MIA (Noble Causeway - Super Snoopy) is by a Grade 1-placed router (3-18, 360K, 0-2 at two, 3-14 routing) that is 14-149 (9%) with juveniles. The dam placed sprinting (0-11, 11K, 0-3 at two, 0-4 routing, cost 19K as yearling) and has foaled five winners from seven runners (1-5 with 2yos, 3-5 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Snoopy's Last (3-12, 51K, 0-1 routing) and three-time Grade 3 winner Lt. Lao (Gardenia Handicap, Fleur de Lis Handicap, Budweiser Stakes, 18-35, 613K, 2-2 at two, 9-18 routing). Trainer Nichole Luce is 0-4 over the past five years with juveniles (0-1 at Keeneland).

6. LAST CHANCE TO SEE (Kipling - Lights Out) is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed turfer Curfew Tower (1-8, 40K, 1-8 at two, 0-1 routing) by winner Kipling (5-28, 121K, 0-4 at two, 2-15 routing), a stallion that is 5-79 (6%) with juvenile debut runners (5-20, 25%, $8.75 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was a winner on turf in Australia (1-8, 6K, 0-2 at two) and has foaled two winners from two runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with routers). The third dam is multiple stakes-winner Mepache (4-26, 173K, 0-1 at two, 1-8 routing). Way of Light doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in North American in 2012.  Trainer Eric Reed is 4-33 (12%, $1.83 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers (0-8 at Keeneland). Reed is 4-36 (11%, $1.04 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 12 workout matches Reed's juvenile filly Sue Me Baby (scheduled to debut in Friday's fifth race). The September 12 workout matches Reed's 4-year-old filly Mai Tai Mama (finished third in a $5,000 starter allowance over polytrack at Keeneland on October 5 with 71 Beyer). The September 18 workout matches Reed's 3-year-old filly Devious Sister (scheduled to debut in Friday's third race).  Reed is only 1-30 (3%, $0.14 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic at Keeneland.

7. SWEET ARABELLA (Lemon Drop Kid - Mint Leaf) was bought back for $29,000 as a yearling and sold for $60,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 10.2 seconds.  She is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Silver Minister (9-42, 212K, 1-3 at two, 7-28 routing) by five-time Grade 1 winner Lemon Drop Kid (Futurity Stakes, Belmont Stakes, Travers Stakes, Whitney Handicap, Woodward Stakes, 10-24, 3.2M, 2-6 at two, 9-21 routing), a stallion that is 82-623 (13%) with juveniles. The dam was placed (0-8, 24K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 routing, cost 225K at two) and has foaled five winners from eight runners (1-4 with 2yos, 2-3 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Barbara Sue (12-73, 257K, 0-3 at two, 10-45 routing), Grade 1 Mervyn LeRoy Handicap winner Super May (11-41, 826K, 1-6 at two, 3-9 routing), Grade 2-placed Highland Tide (4-33, 190K, 0-7 routing) and four-time Grade 3 winner Ide (Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, Iroquois Stakes, Rebel Stakes, Southwest Stakes, 7-9, 372K, 5-7 at two, 4-4 routing). Trainer Vickie Foley is 0-8 over the past five years with juveniles dropping into maiden claimers (0-1 at Keeneland).

8. TACTICAL TRAIL (Tactical Cat - Seaside Sands), foaled in Texas, was bought back for $12,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 11.1 seconds.  He is by Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity winner Tactical Cat (4-12, 480K, 3-9 at two, won debut, 1-4 routing), a stallion that is 23-178 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (2-15, 13%, $1.07 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam won on turf (1-9, 14K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 routing) and this is her first starter.  The third dam is two-time Grade 2 Diana Handicap winner Glowing Honor (6-14, 296K, 0-2 at two). Pleasant Tap is 6-49 (12%, $1.52 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Edward Frederick is 0-4 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers (0-2 at Keeneland). Frederick is 0-1 with all debut runners in 2012.

9. DIG (Brother Derek - Rich Citizen) is by Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity and Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby winner Brother Derek (6-17, 1.6M, 3-5 at two, 5-14 routing), a first-crop stallion that is 2-34 (6%) with juveniles. The dam won on turf (1-9, 36K) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Are We Dreamin (9-53, 512K, 0-3 at two, 2-7 routing). Trainer Larry Jones is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping into maiden claimers.

10. JENNYS ROYALPURPLE (Bluegrass Cat - Bayou Bride), foaled in Florida, was bought back for $22,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 10.4 seconds.  She is by Grade 1 Haskell Invitational winner Bluegrass Cat (5-11, 1.7M, 3-4 at two, 4-9 in main track routes), a stallion that is 58-443 (13%) with juveniles. The dam was placed sprinting (0-7, 3K, cost 50K as yearling) and has foaled one winner from two runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-1 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 Preakness Stakes winner Prairie Bayou (7-12, 1.4M, 2-4 at two, 7-11 routing) and Grade 2 National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame Stakes winner Flitch (8-32, 628K, 2-5 at two, 3-10 routing). Trainer William Fires is 0-7 over the past five years with juveniles dropping from maiden special weights.

11. K TO THE CROFT (Distorted Humor - A to the Croft) is by Grade 2 Commonwealth Stakes and Grade 2 Churchill Downs Handicap winner Distorted Humor (8-23, 769K, 1-10 routing), a stallion that is 157-926 (17%) with juveniles. The dam was multiple Grade 1-placed at two (3-14, 295K, 1-5 at two, 1-9 routing, cost 55K as yearling) and this is her first starter. The third dam is multiple stakes-placed router Scorched (3-16, 67K, 1-1 at two, 0-9 routing). Trainer Ken McPeek is 1-2 (50%, $3.60 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going sprint to route while dropping from maiden special weights (0-1 at Keeneland). It's probably too early to give up on this Distorted Humor filly, especially at this level.

12. SOUTHERN DYNAMO (Dynaformer - South Ocean Blvd) is by Grade 2 Jersey Derby and Grade 2 Discovery Handicap winner Dynaformer (7-30, 671K, 1-5 at two, 4-19 routing), a stallion that is 40-394 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (no debut winners in 2012).  The dam was placed sprinting on a wet track (0-4, 4K, 0-1 at two) and has foaled one winner from two runners.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes winner Film Maker (8-27, 2.2M, 0-1 at two).  Capote is 7-63 (11%, $3.61 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012. Trainer Wayne Lukas is 0-11 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers. Lukas is 0-22 with all debut runners in 2012. The September 20 workout matches Lukas' 4-year-old Turnofthecat (finished sixth in $30,000 'n2L' claimer over polytrack at Keeneland on October 11 with 51 Beyer). The October 3, October 6, October 13 works match Lukas' juvenile English Council (scheduled to debut in Wednesday's third race).

SELECTIONS:
1. I'm So Vain
2. Last Chance to See
3. Queenie's Gold

THE PLAY:
I'm So Vain to WIN at 5-2 odds or greater

***

Race 7
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

ANALYSIS:

1. HOLDEN ON (Dehere - Sun Lucky), foaled in Florida, sold for $62,000 as a yearling and was purchased for $165,000 in March after breezing a furlong in 10.1 seconds.  The sire won the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes and Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes (6-9, 723K, 5-7 at two, 4-5 sprinting) and is 133-731 (18%) with juveniles.  The dam won sprinting on a wet track (1-5, 14K, 1-4 sprinting, sold for $230,000 at two) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Tahoe City (7-15, 185K, 7-14 sprinting). Trainer Wayne Catalano is 49-190 (26%, $1.84 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles on synthetic (8-41, 20%, $1.97 ROI at Keeneland).

2. OUR DOUBLE PLAY (Grand Slam - Lovethespell) sold for $90,000 as a yearling and is a full brother to stakes-winning sprinter Cool Spell (2-7, 96K, 1-3 at two, 2-6 sprinting) and Grade 3-placed sprinter Presto Change O (2-10, 75K, 2-8 sprinting). Our Double Play is by Grade 1 Champagne Stakes and Grade 1 Futurity Stakes winner Grand Slam (4-15, 971K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 1-4 sprinting), a stallion that is 51-426 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (7-56, 12%, $1.32 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The winning dam (2-17, 69K, 0-4 at two, 1-10 sprinting) has foaled four winners from six runners (2-5 with 2yos, 3-5 with sprinters in North America). The dam is a full sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Bashful Charmer (2-7, 57K, 2-5 at two, 2-6 sprinting). Capote is 7-63 (11%, $3.61 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012. Trainer Ken McPeek is 7-74 (9%, $1.21 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (3-52, 6%, $0.70 ROI at Keeneland). McPeek is 4-44 (9%, $1.01 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 9 workout matches McPeek's 3-year-old Sheriff Silverstar (65 Beyer top on polytrack).

3. CRUACHAN (War Chant - La Madame) is by Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile winner War Chant (5-7, 1.1M, 1-1 at two, 1-1 sprinting), a stallion that is 12-109 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (2-31, 6%, $0.31 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was a Group 1 winner in Chile (4-19, 158K, 3-7 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled two winners from two runners (1-1 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters). Mocito Fogoso doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in North America in 2012. Trainer Tom Amoss is 4-25 (16%, $0.96 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (1-2, 50%, $3.90 ROI at Keeneland). Amoss is 9-30 (30%, $1.89 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012.

4. DEADLY TRUTH (Bold Truth - Deadly Dreamer), foaled in Louisiana, is by Grade 2-placed sprinter Bold Truth (2-15, 112K, 0-1 at two, 2-12 sprinting), a stallion that is 3-38 (8%) with juveniles.  The dam won on turf (1-4, 11K, 0-2 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The third dam is Grade 3-placed Student Leader (5-33, 90K, 1-3 at two). Trainer Merrill Scherer is 4-14 (29%, $1.09 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to synthetic. 

5. NEVADA (Tapit - Ominous Cat) sold for $375,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes winner Tapit (3-6, 557K, 2-2 at two), a stallion that is 98-641 (15%) with juveniles.  The dam was unraced and this is her first starter.  The second dam is Grade 1 Ashland Stakes and Grade 1 Mother Goose Stakes winner Fleet Renee (5-8, 658K, 1-2 at two).  Trainer Todd Pletcher is 1-31 (3%, $0.19 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to synthetic (1-17, 6%, $0.35 ROI at Keeneland). Disappointed at short odds in most recent start at Belmont, but may not have appreciated racing down inside for the first half-mile. 

6. FULL RIDE (Tapit - Home Run Hitter) sold for $150,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes winner Tapit (3-6, 557K, 2-2 at two), a stallion that is 28-226 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (9-74, 12%, $1.16 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (9-31, 228K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 9-29 sprinting, cost 11K as yearling) and has foaled two winners from three runners (2-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed (in Panama) Flying Affair (4-18, 19K, 1-5 at two, 3-12 sprinting). Grand Slam is 10-70 (14%, $2.00 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Ian Wilkes is 0-28 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on synthetic (0-13 at Keeneland). Wilkes is 0-36 with all debut runners in 2012. 

7. KITTEN GOES PRO (Kitten's Joy - Cherokee Probe) is by Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes winner Kitten's Joy (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 0-1 sprinting), a stallion that is 89-487 (18%) with juveniles. The dam won routing (3-11, 66K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled no winners from two runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). This is the female family of Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Handicap winner Perfect Cat (5-26, 493K, 0-3 at two). Trainer Michael Maker is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going route to sprint (0-1 at Keeneland).

8. PEGASUS STAR (Fusaichi Pegasus - Hoh Buzzard) is a half-brother to stakes-placed turfer Dr. Smarty Jack (3-22, 153K, 0-1 sprinting) and Grade 3 Railbird Stakes winner Via Villagio (3-14, 294K, 1-6 at two, 1-3 sprinting) by Grade 1 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus (6-9, 1.9M, 0-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 105-723 (15%) with juveniles.  The dam won the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere Stakes (6-18, 319K, 1-3 at two, cost 47.9K as yearling) and has foaled three winners from four runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to British Group 3 turf winner Ashdown Express. Trainer Andrew McKeever is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix. According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 11, Pegasus Star "continues to improve, was better than Mr Segretto."  That one is a 3-year-old colt with a 64 Beyer top on polytrack.

9. WILL TAKE CHARGE (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady) sold for $425,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy (2-7, 721K, 1-4 at two, 1-1 sprinting).  Will Take Charge is by Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Unbridled's Song (5-12, 1.3M, 2-3 at two, 2-4 sprinting), a stallion that is 143-827 (17%) with juveniles. The dam won three Grade 1 races (Ashland Stakes, Spinster Stakes twice, 11-22, 2.4M, 3-5 at two, 1-1 sprinting, cost 175K as yearling) and has foaled three winners from five runners (1-4 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Eventail (5-20, 300K, 1-6 sprinting) and stakes-winning juvenile Commendation (7-43, 315K, 3-6 at two, 0-3 sprinting). Trainer Wayne Lukas is 0-13 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers (0-1 at Keeneland).  Passed some tired foes in debut at Saratoga and is certainly eligible to improve here.

10. HARD ACES (Hard Spun - All in With Aces) is by Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes winner Hard Spun (7-13, 2.6M, 3-3 at two, 4-4 sprinting), a stallion that is 6-79 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (7-60, 12%, $1.45 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam won sprinting (3-23, 162K, 0-3 at two, 3-23 sprinting, cost 20K as yearling) and has foaled one winner from one runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Bank President (5-30, 158K, 0-2 at two, 2-4 sprinting). Quiet American is 5-70 (7%, $0.60 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Larry Jones is 12-82 (15%, $1.69 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (0-1 at Keeneland). Jones is 4-23 (17%, $1.84 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. 

11. CENTOFANTI (Street Sense - Saudia) was bought back for $120,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to French stakes-placed turfer The West's Awake (1-11, 50K), stakes-winning turfer Mr. Ryder (5-10, 194K) and British juvenile Group 2 turf winner Red Duke (2-12, 173K, 2-6 at two) by Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Grade 1 Kentucky Derby and Grade 1 Travers Stakes winner Street Sense (6-13, 4.3M, 2-5 at two, 1-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 7-53 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (5-53, 9%, $1.07 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam won on turf in England (1-4, 5K, 1-1 at two) and has foaled five winners from six runners (2-2 with 2yos). The dam is a half-sister to Italian Group 3 turf winner Revere. Gone West is 10-58 (17%, $2.40 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Sal Santoro is 2-10 (20%, $2.36 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners. Santoro is 1-3 (33%, $4.13 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 4 workout matches Santoro's juvenile filly Spectacular Me (finished eleventh in maiden special weight debut on dirt at Calder on August 25 with 0 Beyer).

SELECTIONS:
1. Nevada
2. Will Take Charge
3. Pegasus Star

THE PLAY:
Nevada - Will Take Charge EXACTA
Nevada - Pegasus Star EXACTA

[MORE IN DRF GAMEPLAN: DRF experts highlight best betting opportunities]