10/16/2012 4:33PM

Keeneland Babies for Oct. 17, 2012

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies!  I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet.  In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Keeneland Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile maiden race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.  Selections and wagering strategy will be presented for non-maiden races.

NOTE: Find Saturday and Sunday Keeneland Babies analysis in DRF GamePlan

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Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Race 3
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($30,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $18,000

ANALYSIS:

1. ACTS LIKE GOLD (Action This Day - A Little Gold) is by Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Action This Day (2-9, 822K, 2-3 at two, 2-8 routing), a stallion that is 27-282 (10%) with juveniles.  The dam won sprinting (4-25, 108K, 0-1 routing) and has foaled one winner from two runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers). This is the female family of multiple stakes-winner Super N Bold (4-6, 167K, 3-5 at two, 1-1 routing). Trainer William Connelly is 2-9 (22%, $1.57 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping from maiden special weights (0-3 at Keeneland).

2. SECRET CITIZEN (Proud Citizen - Our Secret) sold for $3,200 as a short yearling and was bought back for $14,000 as a yearling.  He is by Grade 2 Lexington Stakes winner Proud Citizen (3-16, 638K, 1-4 at two, 1-8 routing), a stallion that is 17-172 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (3-34, 9%, $1.29 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was placed on turf (0-4, 7K) and has foaled one winner from one runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers). The second dam is Grade 2 Astarita Stakes and Grade 2 Monmouth Oaks winner Top Secret (11-31, 997K, 3-6 at two, 6-19 routing). Forestry is 6-56 (11%, $1.06 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Stacey Slovis is 0-2 over the past five years.  This is Slovis' first debut runners in 2012.

3. GRAND KUMA (Kuma - Lady Offense) is by route winner Kuma (1-7, 41K, 1-4 routing), a stallion that is 0-2 with juvenile debut runners (no debut winners in 2012).  This is the first starter from the stakes-placed dam (7-28, 89K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 0-3 routing). Lee's Badger doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Larry Lay is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in routes. Lay is 0-5 with all debut runners in 2012. The October 5 and October 12 workouts match Lay's juvenile Larry Zip It (11 Beyer top on dirt, entered in Thursday's first race).

4. LEGATUS (Bandini - Trudy's Knockout) is by Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes winner Bandini (5-9, 676K, 0-1 at two, 4-7 routing), a stallion that is 36-293 (12%) with juveniles.  The winning dam (2-20, 31K, 1-6 at two, 1-4 routing, cost 16K as short yearling) has foaled one winner from three runners (0-3 with 2yos). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Tym Beau (9-45, 297K, 3-6 at two, 0-8 routing). Trainer John Pucek is 0-5 over the past five years with juveniles going sprint to route.

5. MISSIN' TIZ (Decarchy - Tiz N Image) is by Grade 2 Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap winner Decarchy (6-19, 703K, 1-1 at two), a stallion that is 47-257 (18%) with juveniles.  The unraced dam (cost 35K as yearling) has foaled one winner from two runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Legal Logic (5-32, 231K, 1-4 routing). Trainer Leigh Delacour is 5-18 (28%, $2.07 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles. 

6. STRAIGHT TOWN (Straight Man - Guana Caste), foaled in Florida, sold for $2,000 as a short yearling and was purchased for $13,000 as a yearling.  He is by Grade 2 Winnercomm Handicap winner Straight Man (5-15, 333K, 1-6 routing), a stallion that is 62-486 (13%) with juveniles.  The unraced dam has foaled one winner from two runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers). This is the female family of multiple stakes-winners Jeblar (14-40, 320K, 1-3 at two, 2-11 routing) and Viv (10-36, 356K, 0-1 at two, 1-6 routing). Trainer Wesley Ward is 9-40 (23%, $1.37 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles removing blinkers (2-7, 29%, $2.97 ROI at Keeneland). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 4, Straight Town "broke in front of Captain Cook and finished strongly to retain his position."  Captain Cook is an unraced juvenile.

7. ENGLISH COUNCIL (English Channel - Supreme Council) is by a six-time Grade 1 turf winner (United Nations Stakes twice, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational twice, Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, Breeders' Cup Turf, 13-23, 5.3M, 1-1 at two) that is
4-54 (7%) with juvenile debut runners (4-54, 7%, $3.70 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was placed on turf (0-11, 29K) and has foaled one winner from one runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 Remsen Stakes winner Saarland (5-21, 595K, 2-5 at two, 5-19 routing). Rahy is 6-57 (11%, $3.29 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Wayne Lukas is 1-21 (5%, $2.71 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in routes (0-2 at Keeneland). Lukas is 0-22 with all debut runners in 2012. The September 10 workout matches Lukas' juvenile Channel Isle (finished third in maiden special weight over the Keeneland polytrack on October 7 with 62 Beyer). The September 16 workout matches Lukas' juvenile Red Wings (finished tenth in maiden special weight on turf at Keeneland on October 10 with 48 Beyer). The October 3, October 6 and October 13 workouts match Lukas's juvenile filly Southern Dynamo (scheduled to debut in Thursday's fifth race).

8. JOY TO THE KING (Eurosilver - Ringside Partner) is by Grade 2 Breeders' Futurity winner Eurosilver (4-12, 622K, 2-3 at two, 2-7 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 28-310 (9%) with juveniles. The dam won routing (1-8, 13K, 0-6 at two, 1-4 routing, cost 5K as yearling) and this is her first starter.   This is the female family of stakes-placed sprinter Deputy Em (2-20, 88K, 0-3 routing). Trainer Larry Demeritte is 1-6 (17%, $1.00 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going sprint to route. Raced in behind horses for most of the way in recent polytrack sprint at Arlington and still finished ahead of next-out winner R Great Adventure (64 Beyer in $25,000 maiden claimer on grass).

9. KIRKOROTH (Latent Heat - Shirazeri) sold for $105,000 as a yearling and was bought back for $145,000 in March after breezing a furlong in 10.3 seconds.  He is by Grade 1 Malibu Stakes winner Latent Heat (6-12, 450K, 0-1 at two, 1-4 routing), a stallion that is 20-127 (16%) with juveniles.  The dam won sprinting (2-9, 23K, cost 4.5K as yearling) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to Japanese stakes-winner Eishin Hampton and Grade 2-placed router Level Red (6-34, 187K, 1-3 at two, 4-24 routing). Trainer Michael Ewing is 1-1 (100%, $13.40 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping into maiden claimers (1-1, 100%, $13.40 ROI at Keeneland).

10. IRISH ARCH (Arch - Kabylia) sold for $72,000 as a weanling and was purchased for $50,000 as a yearling. He is by Grade 1 Super Derby winner Arch (5-7, 480K, 1-1 at two, 3-4 routing), a stallion that is 61-461 (13%) with juveniles.  The dam was stakes-placed on turf (4-19, 132K, 0-1 routing) and has foaled one winner from four runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with routers). The third dam is French stakes-winning turfer Kadissya. Trainer Eddie Kenneally is 3-9 (33%, $2.68 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going turf to synthetic (1-3, 33%, $4.06 ROI at Keeneland).

11. REVELATIONIST (Corinthian - Sky Beam) sold for $62,000 as a yearling and was purchased for $65,000 in May after breezing a furlong in 10.3 seconds.  He is by Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap winner Corinthian (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two, 6-11 routing), a stallion that is 34-241 (14%) with juveniles.  The dam was unplaced in England (0-7, 0-3 at two, 0-1 routing, cost $250,000 as yearling) and she has foaled one winner from two runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-1 with routers). The dam is a full sister to stakes-winning router Mambo in Seattle (4-14, 421K, 1-2 at two, 4-13 routing).  Trainer Michael Maker is 4-23 (17%, $1.20 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping into maiden claimers (2-8, 25%, $2.40 ROI at Keeneland). Gets much-needed class relief after facing some tough customers in New York.

SELECTIONS:
1. English Council
2. Joy to the King
3. Revelationist

THE PLAY:
English Council to WIN and PLACE at 5-1 odds or greater.

***

Race 4
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. MOONLIGHT CAPER (Malibu Moon - Dance Darling) sold for $85,000 as a weanling and was purchased for $165,000 as a yearling,  She is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed router Join in the Dance (2-19, 442K, 1-5 at two) by juvenile sprint winner Malibu Moon (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two), a stallion that is 55-336 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (14-66, 21%, $1.88 ROI with all debut runners in 2012) and 36-355 (10%) with first-turfers.  The unraced dam (cost 190K as yearling) has foaled three winners from three runners (2-3 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Darling Danzig (4-4, 57K), stakes-placed Devoted Danzig (2-15, 77K, 0-3 at two, 1-3 on turf, first-turf winner), multiple stakes-winning router Misnomer (6-36, 320K, 2-4 at two, 0-1 on turf), Grade 3-placed Grey Beard (3-38, 178K, 1-3 at two, 0-15 on turf), stakes-placed Grand Escape (3-12, 128K, 1-2 at two, 2-5 on turf) and British Group 3-placed turfer Mutawassel.  Devil's Bag is 3-37 (8%, $2.04 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Ken McPeek is 3-45 (7%, $1.94 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in turf routes (0-3 at Keeneland). McPeek is 4-44 (9%, $1.01 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 22 workout matches McPeek's juvenile filly Kimberly Jean (finished fifth in maiden special weight debut over polytrack at Keeneland on October 5 with 67 Beyer). The September 22 workout matches McPeek's juvenile Java's War (finished third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity Stakes over polytrack at Keeneland on October 6 with 78 Beyer). The September 22 workout matches McPeek's juvenile Otter Cove (finished sixth in $50,000 maiden claimer over polytrack at Keeneland on October 5 with 55 Beyer). The October 5 workout matches McPeek's juvenile filly Johanna Honey (finished twelfth in career debut in maiden special weight over polytrack at Keeneland on October 11 with 31 Beyer).

2. BET ON KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Talking Treasure) is by Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes winner Kitten's Joy (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner), a stallion that is 29-163 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (7-44, 16%, $1.90 ROI with all debut runners in 2012) and 31-204 (15%) with first-turfers.  This is the first starter from the multiple stakes-winning dam (7-14, 361K). This is the female family of multiple stakes-winner Ruffaroundtheedges (7-27, 189K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 1-4 on turf). Catienus is 1-9 (11%, $6.69 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012. Trainer Wayne Catalano is 3-12 (25%, $1.40 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in turf routes. Catalano is 11-61 (18%, $2.65 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012.

3. SHE'S RICH (Mr. Greeley - Morning Cry) sold for $3,500 as a short yearling and was purchased for $20,000 in March after breezing two furlongs in 22.1 seconds.  She is by a three-time Grade 3 winner (Lafayette Stakes, Swale Stakes, Spectacular Bid Stakes, 5-16, 474K, 2-6 at two) that is 37-366 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (3-43, 7%, $1.88 ROI with all debut runners in 2012) and 47-471 (10%) with first-turfers.  This is the first starter from the unraced dam.  The dam is a half-sister to British Group 2 turf winner Red Slippers (3-8, 98K, 1-3 at two, 3-8 on turf), multiple Group 1 turf winner Balanchine (4-8, 834K, 2-2 at two, 4-8 on turf, first-turf winner), British Group 2 turf winner Romanov (4-11, 533K, 4-11 on turf, first-turf winner) and French stakes-placed turfer First Night (2-5, 33K, 2-5 on turf). Danzig is 6-45 (13%, $1.43 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Brian Lynch is 1-5 (20%, $1.94 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in turf routes. Lynch is 3-23 (13%, $0.93 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The June 14 workout matches Lynch's juvenile filly Moonrite (finished seventh in maiden special weight debut on polytrack at Woodbine on October 13 with 41 Beyer). The June 20, July 3, July 15 workouts match Lynch's juvenile Middle of Winter (finished eighth in maiden special weight debut on polytrack at Woodbine on August 19 with 18 Beyer). The August 12 workout matches Lynch's juvenile Five Iron (finished second in the $168,000 Swynford Stakes over the Woodbine polytrack on September 9 with 83 Beyer). The August 12 workout matches Lynch's 3-year-old filly English Class (finished first in 'n1x' allowance on turf at Woodbine on August 19 with 80 Beyer). The August 19, August 26, September 2, September 8, September 14 workouts match Lynch's juvenile filly Sky High Gal (finished second in maiden special weight debut on turf at Woodbine on September 21 with 60 Beyer). The September 21 workout matches Lynch's 4-year-old River Lemon (finished second in $40,000, 'n2x' claimer on turf at Woodbine on September 30 with 78 Beyer).

4. BITTY KITTY (Kitten's Joy - Littlebitoflove) sold for $65,000 as a yearling and was bought back for $60,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 10.1 seconds.  She is by Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes winner Kitten's Joy (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf), a stallion that is 89-487 (18%) with juveniles and 159-1077 (15%) with turfers.  The dam won routing (1-8, 26K, cost 90K as yearling) and has foaled two winners from three runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-3 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to Italian stakes-winning turfer New Capricorn, Brazilian Group 3 winner Lady Six and Brazilian stakes-placed runner Babysix.  Trainer Brendan Walsh is 0-3 over the past five years with juveniles on turf (0-1 at Keeneland).

5. DIDO (Bernstein - Anyhow) is by two-time Irish Group 3 winner Bernstein (4-8, 173K, 2-3 at two, 4-8 on turf, first-turf winner), a stallion that is 125-759 (16%) with juveniles and 37-276 (13%) with first-turfers.  The unraced dam (cost 400K as yearling) has foaled one winner from two runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-1 with turfers).
The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 Lexington Stakes winner Mythical Gem (4-8, 161K, 0-1 at two, 3-4 on turf, first-turf winner), juvenile stakes-placed turfer Multitudinous (1-8, 47K, 1-2 at two, 1-6 on turf, first-turf winner), stakes-placed juvenile Claremont (2-7, 61K, 1-3 at two, 0-2 on turf) and stakes-winning turfer Apple Charlotte (3-10, 147K, 1-2 at two, 3-9 on turf). Trainer Graham Motion is 1-18 (6%, $0.25 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles making first turf route start (0-2 at Keeneland).

6. VIRTUAL IMAGE (Elusive Quality - Indy Trouble) is by Grade 3 Jaipur Handicap and Grade 3 Poker Handicap winner Elusive Quality (9-20, 413K, 2-4 on turf, first-turf winner), a stallion that is 39-246 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (7-42, 17%, $1.50 ROI with all debut runners in 2012) and 30-367 (8%) with first-turfers.  The dam was stakes-placed on turf (3-17, 83K, 0-5 at two, 3-16 on turf) and has foaled one winner from one runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Temper Temper (1-8, 56K, 0-2 at two) and Grade 3 winner Utopian (3-12, 213K, 2-9 on turf), and is a full sister to stakes-placed turfer Indy Trouble (3-17, 83K, 0-5 at two, 3-16 on turf). A.P. Indy is 9-117 (8%, $0.69 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Victoria Oliver is 1-4 (25%, $18.65 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in turf routes. Oliver is 0-5 with all debut runners in 2012. The July 28 workout matches Oliver's juvenile filly Liberated (finished third in maiden special weight debut on dirt at Ellis Park on September 3 with 59 Beyer). The August 11 workout matches Oliver's 3-year-old filly Clear Danger (finished seventh in the $66,000 Hatoof Stakes on turf at Arlington on August 18 with 72 Beyer).  The August 25 workout matches Liberated (finished third in maiden special weight on polytrack at Keeneland on October 5 with 71 Beyer). The September 8, September 15 workouts match Oliver's 5-year-old Notoriety (finished tenth in 'n2x' allowance over Keeneland's polytrack on October 11 with 56 Beyer).

7. PENROSE (Lemon Drop Kid - Tasha's Delight) is a full sister to Grade 2 American Handicap winner Wilkinson (5-18, 336K, 1-3 at two, 2-8 on turf, first-turf winner) by five-time Grade 1 winner Lemon Drop Kid (Futurity Stakes, Belmont Stakes, Travers Stakes, Whitney Handicap, Woodward Stakes, 10-24, 3.2M, 2-6 at two), a stallion that is 82-623 (13%) with juveniles and 43-366 (12%) with first-turfers.  The dam was Grade 3-placed at two (3-13, 163K, 1-5 at two, 0-6 on turf, cost 40K at two) and has foaled one winner from two runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-1 with turfers, first-turf winner). The dam is a full sister to Grade 2 winner Miss Pickums (6-20, 376K, 3-7 at two, 0-2 on turf). Trainer Neil Howard is 0-4 over the past five years with juveniles going synthetic to turf.

8. SUGAR SPUN (Hard Spun - Queena Coleena) sold for $100,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes winner Hard Spun (7-13, 2.6M, 3-3 at two), a stallion that is 32-206 (16%) with juveniles and 22-156 (14%) with turfers.  The unplaced dam (0-5, 1K, 0-4 on turf) has foaled no winners from two runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Nepenthe (4-21, 249K, 3-15 on turf). Trainer Tim Ice is 5-35 (14%, $1.47 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles on turf (0-1 at Keeneland). Ran some solid races around two turns on grass at Arlington and seems well-spotted in this heat.

9. ROCK ART (Rock Hard Ten - Art Fair) is a half-sister to stakes-placed router Mr Artistic M D (2-4, 58K, 2-2 at two) by Grade 1 Malibu Stakes and Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap winner Rock Hard Ten (7-11, 1.8M), a stallion that is 28-239 (12%) with juveniles and 94-689 (14%) with turfers.  The dam was a stakes-winning sprinter (4-20, 112K, 2-4 at two) and has foaled two winners from three runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with turfers). Trainer Charles Dickey is 0-10 over the past five years with juveniles on turf.

10. ANNA PAVLOVA (Unbridled's Song - Our Rite of Spring) sold for $120,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Unbridled's Song (5-12, 1.3M, 2-3 at two), a stallion that is 143-827 (17%) with juveniles and 54-442 (12%) with first-turfers. The dam was a stakes-winning router (3-15, 141K, 0-1 at two, 0-5 on turf, cost 180K as yearling) and has foaled three winners from four runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-3 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Wild Current (7-33, 273K, 1-2 at two, 0-1 on turf) and Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes winner Hard Spun (7-13, 2.6M, 3-3 at two). Trainer Larry Jones is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles switching to turf in routes. The October 1 workout matches Jones' 3-year-old filly Juliet's Promise (75 Beyer on dirt). Finished behind Moonwalk in debut on dirt at Ellis Park and was flattered when that one recently upset the Grade 3 Jessamine Stakes on grass with a 68 Beyer. 

11. MATH MAGICIAN (Hat Trick - Dixie N Spades) is by multiple Group 1 turf winner Hat Trick (8-21, 3.1M, 8-21 on turf), a stallion that is 6-59 (10%) with juveniles and 6-33 (18%) with first-turfers in North America. The dam won sprinting at two (2-6, 45K, 2-5 at two, cost 60K as yearling) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Shorey Village (3-11, 52K, 3-10 on turf). Trainer Scooter Dickey is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles switching to turf while making first route start. Exits a key race on dirt at Monmouth that produced next-out synthetic allowance winner Gal About Town (74 Beyer).

12. WEDDING TRIFECTA (Mr. Greeley - Tremendous One), foaled in Florida, is by a three-time Grade 3 winner (Lafayette Stakes, Swale Stakes, Spectacular Bid Stakes, 5-16, 474K, 2-6 at two) that is 129-1018 (13%) with juveniles and 278-2235 (12%) with turfers. This is the first starter from the stakes-placed dam (4-14, 122K, 1-3 at two, 3-11 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed router Consistency (4-8, 116K) and stakes-winner I'll Show Them (6-20, 144K, 2-10 on turf).

SELECTIONS (turf only):
1. Anna Pavlova
2. Math Magician
3. Sugar Spun

THE PLAY (turf only):
Anna Pavlova to WIN at 3-1 odds or greater.

***

Race 7
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

ANALYSIS:

1. ROSIE TEMPER (Bernstein - Shy Lil), foaled in Virginia, sold for $60,000 as a yearling and is by two-time Irish Group 3 winner Bernstein (4-8, 173K, 2-3 at two, won debut), a stallion that is 27-238 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (7-59, 12%, $2.89 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). The multiple stakes-winning dam (3-16, 76K, 0-4 at two, 1-10 sprinting, cost 9.5K as yearling) has foaled two winners from three runners (1-1 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters). This is the female family of Grade 2 Sapling Stakes winner Boone's Mill (7-14, 400K, 2-5 at two, won debut, 7-13 sprinting). Lil's Lad doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012. Trainer Dale Romans is 25-233 (11%, $1.61 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (1-15, 7%, $2.56 ROI at Keeneland). Romans is 6-60 (10%, $0.65 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. 

1A. ULTIMATE TEMPER (Successful Appeal - Star Attraction) sold for $110,000 as a yearling and is by four-time Grade 2 winner Successful Appeal (Cowdin Stakes, Kentucky Cup Sprint, Withers Stakes, Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap, 8-22, 654K, 3-6 at two, 7-13 sprinting), a stallion that is 37-207 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (5-32, 16%, $2.14 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). The dam won sprinting at two (1-4, 38K, 1-4 at two, 1-4 sprinting) and has foaled two winners from two runners (2-2 with sprinters). The dam is a full sister to stakes-winning router Gold Trader (2-4, 81K, 1-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting), Grade 3-placed sprinter Swift Attraction (1-6, 42K, 0-1 at two, 1-6 sprinting) and Grade 3-placed sprinter Big Top Cat (2-9, 54K, 0-2 at two, 2-6 sprinting). Storm Cat is 14-119 (12%, $1.97 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Andrew McKeever is 0-22 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (0-11 at Keeneland). McKeever is 0-10 with all debut runners in 2012. According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 10, Ultimate Temper "broke 3-4 lengths behind Orland Flash and was the better at the finish, Graham up."  Orland Flash is an unraced juvenile filly.

2. BOSS BARNEY'S BABE (Street Boss - Jezebella) sold for $25,000 as a yearling and is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Balian (6-49, 310K, 1-6 at two, 2-18 sprinting) by Grade 1 Bing Crosby Handicap and Grade 1 Triple Bend Invitational Handicap winner Street Boss (7-13, 831K, 7-13 sprinting), a first-crop sire that is 10-68 (15%) with juveniles.  The dam won routing (1-9, 7K, 0-5 sprinting) and has foaled three winners from five runners (2-3 with 2yos, 1-5 with sprinters). The second dam is multiple stakes-winner For All Seasons (6-28, 341K, 5-21 sprinting). Trainer Jay Severs is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles following a trainer switch.

3. TIZ A TREAT (Tiz Wonderful - Godiva Girl) is by Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club winner Tiz Wonderful (3-5, 254K, 3-3 at two, 1-1 sprinting), a first-crop sire that is 3-20 (15%, $1.30 ROI) with juvenile debut runners.  The unraced dam (cost 95K as yearling) has foaled one winner from one runner. The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Royal Fudge (3-23, 153K, 1-7 at two, 3-20 sprinting). Mr. Greeley is 10-77 (13%, $1.85 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Larry Lay is 2-35 (6%, $2.02 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (1-15, 7%, $4.14 ROI at Keeneland). Lay is 0-5 with all debut runners in 2012.

4. CITY AT DAWN (City Zip - Maya) is a half-sister to Grade 2 Bowling Green Handicap winner Al Khali (7-33, 969K, 1-2 sprinting) by Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes winner City Zip (9-23, 818K, 5-11 at two, 9-16 sprinting), a stallion that is 47-275 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (10-60, 17%, $1.69 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). The dam won routing (2-12, 76K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled three winners from three runners (1-2 with 2yos, at least two sprint winners). The third dam is Grade 1 Ashland Stakes winner Chic Shirine (3-16, 237K, 1-3 at two, 1-7 sprinting). Capote is 7-63 (11%, $3.61 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Michael Matz is 7-95 (7%, $1.97 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (0-7 at Keeneland). Matz is 2-26 (7%, $2.03 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 5 workout matches Matz's juvenile Schoodic (finished third in an off-the-turf maiden special weight at Delaware on September 19 with 37 Beyer). The September 21 workout matches Matz's juvenile Enduring Cause (finished fourth in maiden special weight on turf at Delaware on September 26 with 50 Beyer). The October 7 workout matches Matz's juvenile filly Yuzuru (finished third in maiden special weight on polytrack at Keeneland on October 13 with 55 Beyer). The October 7 workout matches Matz's juvenile Lunar Event (finished eighth in maiden special weight on polytrack at Keeneland on October 14 with 37 Beyer).

5. CANTICLE (Unbridled's Song - Palais Versailles) is by Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Unbridled's Song (5-12, 1.3M, 2-3 at two, 2-4 sprinting), a stallion that is 143-827 (17%) with juveniles. The unraced dam has foaled one winner from two runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters in North America). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 Remsen Stakes winner Saarland (5-21, 595K, 2-5 at two, 0-1 sprinting). Trainer Shannon Ritter is 0-12 over the past five years with second-time juveniles.

6. FANFARE (Curlin - Magical Ride) is by a first-crop sire that won seven Grade 1 races (Breeders' Cup Classic, Preakness Stakes, Jockey Club Gold Cup twice, Dubai World Cup, Stephen Foster Handicap, Woodward Stakes (11-16, 10.5M, 1-1 in main track sprints) and is 5-31 (16%) with juveniles.  The dam was Grade 2-placed sprinting at two (2-10, 102K, 1-3 at two, 2-8 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The second dam is Grade 1 Test Stakes winner Victory Ride (5-9, 390K, 4-4 sprinting).  Trainer Rusty Arnold is 2-4 (50%, $9.20 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going turf to synthetic (1-2, 50%, $11.10 ROI at Keeneland).

7. WITH PREJUDICE (With Distinction - Successful Verdict), foaled in Florida, was bought back for $19,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 10.1 seconds.  She is by Grade 3 El Conejo Handicap winner With Distinction (6-29, 447K, 5-18 sprinting), a stallion that is 51-440 (12%) with juveniles.  The unplaced dam (0-2, 0-2 sprinting) has foaled two winners from three runners (0-3 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed router Paxtecum (3-7, 117K, 2-3 at two) and multiple stakes-placed Sniffles (4-48, 157K, 0-5 sprinting). Trainer Joseph Cheeks is 3-7 (43%, $4.05 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix (0-1 at Keeneland).

8. SMITTENWITHKITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Blush) is a full sister to stakes-winning juvenile William's Kitten (2-26, 209K, 2-7 at two) and Grade 3 Coolmore Lexington Stakes winner Derby Kitten (3-20, 311K, 0-5 at two) by Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes winner Kitten's Joy (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 0-1 sprinting), a stallion that is 89-487 (18%) with juveniles.  The dam was a winner (3-15, 69K, 0-2 at two, 2-8 sprinting) and she has foaled two winners from three runners (1-3 with juveniles).  The third dam is Grade 3 Next Move Handicap winner Cherry Jubilee (6-28, 234K, 1-7 sprinting). Trainer Michael Maker is 7-33 (21%, $1.67 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles adding blinkers (1-3, 33%, $3.73 ROI at Keeneland).

9. RATE CHANGE (Exchange Rate - Commercialize) sold for $90,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 2 Tom Fool Handicap winner Exchange Rate (6-15, 479K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 3-6 sprinting), a stallion that is 34-235 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (8-44, 18%, $3.27 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The stakes-winning dam (4-29, 203K, 0-4 at two, 0-3 sprinting, cost 38K at two) and has foaled one winner from one runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile Racing Starflight (5-37, 59K, 2-5 at two, won debut, 2-19 sprinting) and multiple stakes-placed Jeblar Sez Who (5-39, 216K, 0-9 at two, 0-6 sprinting), and is a full sister to Puerto Rican stakes-placed juvenile Oso Polar and stakes-winner Thunder Breeze (8-47, 267K, 7-36 sprinting). Robyn Dancer is 1-26 (4%, $1.37 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012. Trainer Neil Howard is 6-55 (11%, $1.54 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (2-8, 25%, $1.62 ROI at Keeneland). Howard is 3-21 (14%, $2.02 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 25 workout matches Howard's 3-year-old Rock Harder (finished eleventh in 'n1x' allowance on turf at Keeneland on October 11 with 72 Beyer).

10. BELLE CHAUSSEE (Giant's Causeway - Parisian Affair) sold for $90,000 as a yearling and was bought back for $115,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 10.1 seconds.  She is a full sister to stakes-winning turfer Crimson China (3-14, 159K, 1-2 at two) by six-time Group 1 turf winner Giant's Causeway (9-13, 3.0M, 3-3 at two), a stallion that is 76-552 (14%) with juveniles.  The dam was a stakes-winner on turf (5-15, 114K, cost 485K as yearling) and has foaled one winner from two runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to French juvenile Group 1 turf winner Elusive City. Trainer Eddie Kenneally is 13-112 (12%, $1.01 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles on synthetic (5-46, 11%, $1.40 ROI at Keeneland). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 11, Belle Chaussee gave a "good speedy effort, out in 1:00."

11. SNOWFINCH (Birdstone - Tale of the Queen) is by Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, Grade 1 Travers Stakes and Grade 1 Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone (5-9, 1.5M, 2-3 at two, 1-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 31-267 (12%) with juveniles.  The dam won sprinting over a wet track (1-11, 37K, 0-3 at two, 1-8 sprinting) and has foaled one winner from two runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters). This is the female family of Grade 1 Ruffian Handicap winner Catinca (9-20, 864K, 0-1 at two, 4-12 sprinting). Trainer Ian Wilkes is 6-68 (9%, $0.97 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles (1-13, 8%, $0.47 ROI at Keeneland).

SELECTIONS:
1. Tiz a Treat
2. Ultimate Temper
3. Smittenwithkitten

THE PLAY:
Tiz a Treat to WIN and PLACE at 10-1 odds or greater.

[MORE IN DRF GAMEPLAN: DRF experts highlight best betting opportunities]