10/11/2012 2:35PM

Keeneland Babies for Oct. 12, 2012

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies!  I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet.  In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Keeneland Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile maiden race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.  Selections and wagering strategy will be presented for non-maiden races.

NOTE: Find Saturday and Sunday Keeneland Babies analysis in DRF GamePlan

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Friday, October 12, 2012

Race 2
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Claiming ($30,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $30,000

SELECTIONS:
1. Shrinking Violet
2. Madison Street
3. Vivi's Party Girl

THE PLAY:
Shrinking Violet to WIN at 3-1 odds or greater.

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Race 6
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

ANALYSIS:

1. GUNDERSON (Corinthian - Stormy Sunday) is a half-brother to Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Hansen (5-9, 1.8M, 3-3 at two, 1-1 sprinting) by Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap winner Corinthian (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting), a stallion that is 8-83 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (7-64, 11%, $0.91 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam won sprinting (3-4, 33K, 3-4 sprinting) and has foaled two winners from two runners (1-1 with 2yos, debut winner, 1-2 with sprinters). Sir Cat is 3-25 (12%, $1.85 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Grant Hofmans is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners. This is the barn's first debut runner in 2012.

2. SHORT STORY LONG (Officer - Glenarcy) sold for $150,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to stakes-placed Barge (3-9, 98K, 2-5 sprinting) by Grade 1 Champagne Stakes winner Officer (6-9, 804K, 5-8 at two, won debut, 5-5 sprinting), a stallion that is 31-227 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (6-42, 14%, $2.35 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The unraced dam has foaled one winner from two runners (1-1 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to six-time Grade/Group 1 winner Riboletta (13-28, 1.5M, 0-5 at two, 2-4 sprinting), four-time Brazilian Group 1 winner Super Power (7-15, 134K, 2-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and stakes-winner Tamara Princess (3-6, 114K, 1-2 sprinting), and is a full sister to stakes-winner Forest Attack (7-21, 192K, 5-15 sprinting). Forestry is 5-54 (9%, $1.00 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Paul McGee is 3-47 (6%, $4.13 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (0-5 at Keeneland).  McGee is 1-10 (10%, $3.02 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 1 workout matches McGee's 3-year-old Picky Picky (finished ninth in $25,000 maiden claimer on turf at Arlington on September 28 with 55 Beyer). The September 10 workout matches McGee's 4-year-old Infrattini (finished first in 'n2x' optional claimer over the Arlington polytrack on September 20 with 90 Beyer). The September 19 workout matches McGee's juvenile filly Street of Gold (68 dirt Beyer; entered in Thursday's eighth race).

3. LOOKING COOL (Candy Ride - Coolwind) is by three-time Grade/Group 1 winner Candy Ride (6-6, 749K, 1-1 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 73-456 (16%) with juveniles.  The dam was a multiple stakes-winner (6-23, 283K, 1-4 at two, 3-5 sprinting) and has foaled no winners from two runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters). The second dam is Grade 3 Indiana Oaks winner Scoop (5-15, 337K, 2-4 at two, 1-2 sprinting). Trainer Carl Nafzger is 1-10 (10%, $0.43 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix (0-2 at Keeneland).

4. PUSHTHEBUTTONMAX (Friends Lake - Riding Time) is by Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Friends Lake (3-7, 696K, 2-3 at two, 1-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 17-152 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (4-34, 12%, $1.54 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The unraced dam (cost 85K as yearling) has foaled five winners from five runners (1-3 with 2yos, 4-5 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to British Group 2-placed juvenile Balakirev. Silver Deputy is 12-78 (15%, $1.84 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Eddie Kenneally is 31-170 (18%, $2.27 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (1-17, 6%, $0.34 ROI at Keeneland). Kenneally is 9-45 (20%, $2.77 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 5 workout matches Kenneally's juvenile filly Belle Chaussee (64 Beyer on synthetic). The September 11 workout matches Kenneally's juvenile filly Miss Brown Sugar (finished sixth in maiden special weight debut over polytrack at Keeneland on October 5 with 66 Beyer). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report' for October 2, Pushthebuttonmax "went nicely in hand."

5. DAAR RASHID (Exceed and Excel - Sayyedati Symphony) is by multiple Australian Group 1 turf winner Exceed and Excel (7-12, 917K, 2-4 at two, won debut), a stallion that is 0-2 with juvenile debut runners in North America (no debut winners in North America in 2012). The dam was placed on turf in England (0-7, 8K, 0-3 at two) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to British juvenile Group 2 turf winner Almushahar (2-2, 141K, 2-2 at two). Gone West is 10-56 (18%, $2.49 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Eoin Harty is 3-88 (3%, $0.20 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (0-9 at Keeneland). Harty is 1-28 (3%, $0.28 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 17 workout matches Harty's juvenile filly Daar Zayed (58 Beyer top on turf, entered in Saturday's first race).

6. MELLOW FELLOW (The Cliff's Edge - Sanguinity) is by Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes winner The Cliff's Edge (4-13, 1.2M, 3-5 at two, 1-1 sprinting), a stallion that is 23-248 (9%) with juveniles.  The winning dam (4-15, 86K, 0-4 at two, 1-7 sprinting) has foaled one winner from two runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 W. L. McKnight Handicap and Grade 2 Red Smith Handicap winner Dreadnaught (7-48, 708K). Trainer Tim Richardson is 1-10 (10%, $1.60 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles.

7. FIGHT THE TIDE (Majestic Warrior - Riptide), foaled in Florida, sold for $12,000 as a yearling and was purchased for $170,000 in April after breezing two furlongs in 21.4 seconds.  He is by Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes winner Majestic Warrior (2-7, 239K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 2-4 sprinting), a first-crop stallion that is 5-45 (11%, $1.30 ROI) with juvenile debut runners. The dam won routing (1-13, 25K, 0-4 sprinting, cost 50K as yearling) and has foaled one winner from one runner (1-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Prospectlea (3-19, 72K, 3-6 at two, 3-14 sprinting), stakes-placed Fredlea (9-37, 133K, 1-2 at two, 8-32 sprinting), multiple stakes-winner Unaccountedlea (4-21, 174K, 1-5 at two, 1-4 sprinting) and stakes-placed Sawdust (6-43, 94K, 1-4 at two, 1-5 sprinting). Gold Case is 2-21 (10%, $1.38 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012. This is trainer Jay Severs' second debut starter over the past five years (the first was entered in Thursday's first race). 

8. FIGHTERTOWN (Afleet Alex - Stonestreet Lady) sold for $90,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes, Grade 1 Preakness Stakes and Grade 1 Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex (8-12, 2.7M, 4-6 at two, won debut, 5-5 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 12-126 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (2-44, 5%, $0.19 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). The dam won sprinting (2-5, 36K, 0-1 at two, 2-4 sprinting, cost 320K as weanling) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Irish stakes-winner Followmyfootsteps (4-27, 198K, 0-1 at two) and Grade 3 turf winner Corporate Jungle (4-10, 280K). Sky Mesa doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Neil Howard is 6-56 (11%, $1.51 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (2-9, 22%, $1.44 ROI at Keeneland). Howard is 3-20 (15%, $2.12 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 3 workout matches Howard's juvenile filly She's Tellin'tales (finished second in maiden special weight on turf at Kentucky Downs on September 15 with 53 Beyer). The October 10 workout matches Howard's juvenile filly Excessiveness (44 Beyer on turf, entered in Saturday's seventh race).

9. FEVERNTHEFUNKHOUSE (Henny Hughes - Wicked Wish) is by Grade 1 Vosburgh Stakes and Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes winner Henny Hughes (6-10, 1.1M, 3-6 at two, won debut, 6-8 sprinting), a stallion that is 16-105 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (11-56, 20%, $5.97 ROI with all debut runners in 2012). The dam won sprinting (2-13, 81K, 2-11 sprinting, cost 28K as yearling) and has foaled no winners from one runner (0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 Discovery Handicap winner Wishful Tomcat (17-47, 699K, 1-6 at two, 0-9 sprinting), multiple stakes-winner Uncle T Seven (5-36, 488K, 1-6 at two, 3-16 sprinting), multiple stakes-winner Lucky Lewis (6-15, 278K, 2-5 at two, 3-5 sprinting) and stakes-winner Zetterholm (3-7, 193K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting). Gold Case is 2-21 (10%, $1.38 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012. Trainer Ken McPeek is 28-242 (12%, $1.82 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (3-50, 6%, $0.72 ROI at Keeneland). McPeek is 4-39 (10%, $1.14 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 11 workout matches McPeek's juvenile Bold Challenger (finished eighth in maiden special weight debut over the Keeneland turf on October 10). The September 7, September 14 workouts matches McPeek's juvenile Sayler's Creek (finished fourth in maiden special weight debut on turf at Keeneland on October 10). The October 6 workout matches McPeek's juvenile Midas Dancer (75 Beyer on turf, entered in Saturday's third race). 

10. REQUEST A PUCK (Puck - Quest Mount), foaled in Louisiana, sold for $5,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to stakes-placed turfer Riina (1-22, 44K, 0-1 at two, 0-6 sprinting).  The sire won the Grade 3 Long Branch Stakes (4-14, 238K, 0-1 at two, 0-4 sprinting) and is 0-5 with juvenile debut runners (no debut winners in 2012).  The unplaced dam (0-1) has foaled six winners from seven runners (1-3 with 2yos, 4-7 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Bourbon Boogie (4-29, 154K, 0-1 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winner Lee's Spirit (10-47, 498K, 3-6 at two, 3-10 sprinting). Conveyor doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Merrill Scherer is 13-112 (12%, $2.69 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (0-13 at Keeneland). Scherer is 1-11 (9%, $0.96 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 28, September 4, September 11 workouts match Scherer's juvenile Deadly Truth (finished third in maiden special weight debut on dirt at Hoosier on October 4 with 49 Beyer).  The August 28 workout matches Scherer's 3-year-old Freddie One Bite (70 Beyer top on turf). The October 2 workout matches Scherer's juvenile filly Chocolat City (finished fourth in maiden special weight debut over polytrack at Keeneland on October 5 with 54 Beyer).

11. KOBE'S CONQUEST (Indygo Shiner - Aly's Conquest) is a half-brother to Grade 3 Spectacular Bid Stakes winner Maybry's Boy (8-43, 322K, 1-5 at two, 8-37 sprinting) by Grade 3 Jefferson Cup winner Indygo Shiner (4-12, 444K, 1-3 at two, 1-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 5-45 (11%) with juveniles.  The dam was Grade 3-placed (6-29, 242K, 1-3 at two, 4-20 sprinting) and has foaled four winners from nine runners (2-7 with 2yos, 2-7 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed router Kirgiz (2-16, 50K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Iroquois Park (4-7, 103K, 2-4 at two, 4-7 sprinting). Trainer Ian Wilkes is 5-51 (10%, $1.17        ROI) over the past five years with juveniles adding Lasix (1-11, 9%, $0.56 ROI at Keeneland).

12. D Y N FOR A STAR (Birdstone - Di's Time) sold for $95,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to multiple stakes-placed Charlotte's Di (5-18, 182K, 3-10 sprinting), juvenile Grade 3-placed sprinter Lenaro (1-5, 53K, 1-5 at two, won debut, 1-4 sprinting) and juvenile Grade 2-placed sprinter Stat (2-5, 100K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 1-3 sprinting).  D Y N for a Star is by Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, Grade 1 Travers Stakes and Grade 1 Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone (5-9, 1.5M, 2-3 at two, won debut, 1-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 9-85 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (3-37, 8%, $1.27 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was a stakes-winning sprinter (6-19, 241K, 6-18 sprinting, cost 23K at two) and has foaled five winners from five runners (3-4 with 2yos, 2 debut winners, 5-5 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Eenie Meenie Miney (5-65, 233K, 0-5 at two, 1-7 sprinting). Gilded Time is 5-63 (8%, $2.16 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Steve Asmussen is 106-766 (14%, $1.38 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (9-57, 16%, $1.72 ROI at Keeneland). Asmussen is 12-94 (12%, $1.37 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012.

SELECTIONS:
1. Short Story Long
2. Looking Cool
3. Pushthebuttonmax

THE PLAY:
Short Story Long to WIN and PLACE at 6-1 odds or greater

[MORE IN DRF GAMEPLAN: DRF experts highlight best betting opportunities]