10/09/2012 4:45PM

Keeneland Babies for Oct. 10, 2012

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies!  I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet.  In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Keeneland Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile maiden race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.  Selections and wagering strategy will be presented for non-maiden races.

NOTE: Find Saturday and Sunday Keeneland Babies analysis in DRF GamePlan

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Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Race 2
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($30,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $18,000

ANALYSIS:

1. ANILLO (Aragorn - Stylish Mission) was bought back for $9,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 1 Eddie Read Handicap and Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile winner Aragorn (6-14, 1.5M, 0-1 at two), a stallion that is 18-150 (12%) with juveniles.  The dam won sprinting (5-47, 132K, 5-38 in main track sprints, cost 8.5K as yearling) and has foaled three winners from four runners (1-4 with 2yos, 2-4 with main track sprinters).  The dam is a full sister to stakes-winner Missionary Monk (18-91, 334K, 1-12 at two, 8-39 in main track sprints). Trainer Eduardo Caramori is 0-2 over the past five years with juveniles going turf to synthetic.

2. SPEEDSTEIN (Bernstein - Speedwell), foaled in Virginia, sold for $12,000 as a weanling and is by two-time Irish Group 3 winner Bernstein (4-8, 173K, 2-3 at two, won debut), a stallion that is 27-235 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (7-57, 12%, $2.99 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was placed on turf (0-1, 4K) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning juvenile Skipaslew (8-43, 398K, 3-7 at two, 1-5 in main track sprints). Meadowlake is 3-63 (5%, $0.42 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Randy Morse is 3-41 (7%, $1.38 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners. Morse is 3-20 (15%, $2.84 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. 

3. GRIPEN (Sightseeing - Adorable Heidi), foaled in Florida, was bought back for $37,000 in March after breezing a furlong in 11 seconds and is entered in the upcoming Keeneland sale in November.  He is by Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes winner Sightseeing (2-18, 508K, 1-5 at two, 0-2 sprinting), a first-crop stallion that is 3-41 (7%) with juveniles.  This is the first starter from the unraced dam (cost 10K as yearling). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Ruthian (4-21, 212K). Trainer Fred Seitz is 2-10 (20%, $2.67 ROI) over the past five years with second-out juveniles.

4. COUNT ON SILVER (Eurosilver - Count Sequence) sold for $3,000 as a weanling and is by Grade 2 Breeders' Futurity winner Eurosilver (4-12, 622K, 2-3 at two, 2-5 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 27-307 (9%) with juveniles.  The dam won sprinting (2-9, 14K, 1-5 at two, 2-8 in main track sprints, cost 47K as yearling) and has foaled two winners from three winners (1-3 with 2yos, 2-3 with main track sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Cute Cognac (3-5, 121K) and stakes-winning router Gratiaen (7-32, 288K, 4-15 in main track sprints). Trainer John Dyer is 0-4 over the past five years with juveniles in maiden claimers. 

5. STONE COLD WILD (Birdstone - Wild Flower) is by Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, Grade 1 Travers Stakes and Grade 1 Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone (5-9, 1.5M, 2-3 at two, 1-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 31-263 (12%) with juveniles.  The dam won sprinting (3-21, 40K, 2-8 at two, 3-19 in main track sprints, cost 24.5K at two) and this is her first starter.  This is the female family of stakes-winner Mighty Mouse (11-60, 89K, 4-10 at two). Trainer Darrin Miller is 1-3 (33%, $1.59 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going third off the layoff.

6. THE ROOFER (Fairbanks - Darnestown), foaled in Pennsylvania, is a half-brother to stakes-winning juvenile Peace Town (5-16, 155K, 3-5 at two, 4-12 sprinting).  A $13,500 weanling, The Roofer is by Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup winner Fairbanks (6-19, 879K), a first-crop sire that is 2-49 (4%) with juveniles.  The dam was a multiple stakes-placed sprinter (3-13, 94K, 2-10 sprinting) and she has foaled two winners from three runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters). The third dam is multiple stakes-winner (Argentina) Yanina 2nd (3-16, 22K).  Trainer Wesley Ward is 8-38 (21%, $1.33 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles removing blinkers (1-5, 20%, $3.32 ROI at Keeneland.

7. CAPTAIN COOK (Survivalist - Unshuttered) was bought back for $1,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 3 Gotham Stakes winner Survivalist (5-15, 478K, 1-2 at two, 0-4 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 1-45 (2%) with juvenile debut runners (2-23, 9%, $0.66 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam won on turf (2-17, 88K, 0-4 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints) and has foaled two winners from two runners (0-1 with 2yos, 2-2 with main track sprinters). The second dam is multiple stakes-placed Shuttered (7-26, 226K, 5-12 in main track sprints).  Unbridled is 1-56 (2%, $0.50 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Wesley Ward is 20-82 (24%, $1.24 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers (0-2 at Keeneland).  Ward is 9-59 (15%, $0.90 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 19 workout matches Ward's juvenile filly Minnie Bear (65 Beyer on turf; entered in Thursday's first race). The September 19 workout matches Ward's juvenile Off the Page (48 Beyer on polytrack). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for September 27, Captain Cook "broke well, held the edge on Lucky Tiz from the gate."   Lucky Tiz is an unraced juvenile.

8. MAGTIME (Magna Graduate - Right Time Matty) is a half-brother to stakes-placed Banjammer (2-22, 45K, 1-5 at two, 2-17 in main track sprints) by Grade 2 Clark Handicap winner Magna Graduate (10-35, 2.5M, 2-5 at two) a first-crop stallion that is 6-26 (23%) with juveniles.  The dam won sprinting (1-27, 23K, 0-7 at two, 1-13 in main track sprints, cost 16K at two) and has foaled two winners from three runners (1-3 with 2yos, 1-2 with main track sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 Polynesian Stakes winner Lies of Omission (11-40, 287K, 1-5 in main track sprints). Trainer Eric Reed is 3-14 (21%, $1.35 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping from maiden special weights (1-6, 17%, $1.10 ROI at Keeneland).

9. GREY BY YOU (Concorde's Tune - Exotic Cat), foaled in Florida, is by multiple stakes-winner Concorde's Tune (12-28, 242K, 1-2 at two, 9-20 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 124-970 (13%) with juveniles.  The dam was unplaced (0-1, 0-1 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints, cost 6K as yearling) and this is her first starter.  The third dam is multiple stakes-winner Clear Conscience (10-34, 127K).  Trainer John Hancock is 5-20 (25%, $5.44 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping from maiden special weights.

10. TEFLON DON (Seeking the Best - Dashing Girl) is by Japanese Group 3 winner Seeking the Best (9-22, 1.8M, 8-17 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 4-68 (6%) with juveniles.  The winning dam (4-46, 63K, 0-1 at two, 3-35 in main track sprints) has foaled one winner from three runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with main track sprinters). This is the female family of multiple stakes-winner Playgoer (23-104, 106K, 1-10 at two). Trainer Lon Wiggins is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping from maiden special weights.

11. UNBRIDLED LOGIC (Lion Heart - Aheadnotatail) sold for $21,000 as a weanling and for $22,000 as a yearling.  He is by Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity and Grade 1 Haskell Invitational winner Lion Heart (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two, 2-2 sprinting), a stallion that is 123-774 (16%) with juveniles. The unplaced dam (0-3, 1K, 0-3 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints) has foaled five winners from six runners (1-4 with 2yos, 1-6 with main track sprinters).  The second dam is Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap and Grade 3 Noble Damsel Stakes winner Highland Penny (15-65, 669K, 1-8 at two, 1-6 in main track sprints). Trainer Walter Bindner Jr. is 2-7 (29%, $5.37 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping from maiden special weights. Failed to rally over a speed-favoring Ellis Park dirt surface, but seems like a good fit at this spot. 

12. KIWI NOTION (Great Notion - Modena Bay) is by stakes-winning router Great Notion (3-12, 194K, 2-2 at two, 2-8 in main track sprints), a stallion that is 8-29 (28%) with juvenile debut runners (4-14, 29%, $2.59 ROI with all debut runners in 2012).  The dam was a stakes-winner on turf in New Zealand (4-28, 120K, 0-5 at two) and has foaled two winners from two runners (1-2 with main track sprinters). Volksraad is 1-2 (50%, $1.50 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Darrin Miller is 4-12 (33%, $3.51 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers. Miller is 4-13 (30%, $6.05 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 12 workout matches Miller's juvenile Spivey (finished first in $25,000 maiden claiming debut over the Arlington polytrack on September 20 with 53 Beyer).

SELECTIONS:
1. Unbridled Logic
2. Captain Cook
3. Kiwi Notion

THE PLAY:
Unbridled Logic to WIN and PLACE at 9-2 odds or greater.

***

Race 3
1 Mile (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

ANALYSIS:

1. GENTLEMAN'S KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Imagistic) is by Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes winner Kitten's Joy (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf), a stallion that is 88-478 (18%) with juveniles and 157-1063 (15%) with turfers.  The dam won routing (1-14, 83K, 0-2 on turf, cost 250K as yearling) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed router Instrumentalist (3-6, 71K, 1-1 on turf). Trainer Wayne Catalano is 4-32 (13%, $0.92 ROI) with second-time juveniles on turf (0-4 at Keeneland).

1a. KITTEN'S GIFT (Kitten's Joy - Philanthropy Lady) is by Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes winner Kitten's Joy (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf), a stallion that is 88-478 (18%) with juveniles and 157-1063 (15%) with turfers. The winning dam (2-14, 89K, 1-3 at two, 0-7 on turf, cost 50K as yearling) has foaled one winner from two runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with turfers). This is the female family of nine-time Group 1 turf winner Triptych. Trainer Wesley Ward is 2-17 (12%, $0.83 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 61-180 day layoffs on turf). 

2. JUST PLAY (Friends Lake - Yes Beth) is by Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Friends Lake (3-7, 696K, 2-3 at two), a stallion that is 79-490 (16%) with juveniles and 3-106 (3%) with first-turf runners.  The dam won on turf (3-17, 111K, 0-2 at two, 3-17 on turf) and has foaled one winner from two runners (0-1 with 2yos).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 Chaposa Springs Handicap winner Could Be (6-13, 262K).  Trainer Steve Margolis is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf. The October 4 workout matches Margolis' juvenile Broken Key (49 Beyer on dirt).

3. CAIRO SIX (Stormy Atlantic - Tortuga Lady) was bought back for $47,000 as a yearling, sold for $50,000 as a yearling and was purchased for $200,000 in March after breezing a furlong in 11 seconds. He is a half-brother to stakes-winning turfer Dyna's Lassie (4-12, 182K, 0-1 at two, 4-12 on turf) and stakes-winning router Princess Arabella (3-3, 188K, 1-1 at two).  Cairo Six is by multiple stakes-winning sprinter Stormy Atlantic (6-15, 148K, 0-1 at two), a stallion that is 228-1525 (15%) with juveniles and 406-2623 (15%) with turfers.  The dam won sprinting (1-3, 6K, 0-1 on turf, cost 55K as short yearling) and has foaled five winners from six runners (2-4 with 2yos, 1-3 with turfers). The dam is a full sister to multiple Grade 1-placed router Invisible Ink (4-14, 465K, 1-3 at two) and is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed turfer Inner Circle (5-25, 163K, 0-1 at two, 2-18 on turf). Trainer Larry Jones is 4-23 (17%, $2.18 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles on turf (0-1 at Keeneland).

4. HERECOMETHEHAWKS (Mr. Greeley - Grat), foaled in Florida, is a half-brother to Grade 2 La Jolla Handicap winner Old Time Hockey (3-10, 206K, 0-1 at two, 3-7 on turf).  Herecomethehawks is by a three-time Grade 3 winner (Lafayette Stakes, Swale Stakes, Spectacular Bid Stakes, 5-16, 474K, 2-6 at two) that is 129-1014 (13%) with juveniles and 278-2227 (12%) with turfers.  The dam was a stakes-winner on turf (4-20, 160K, 1-4 at two, 4-17 on turf, cost 500K as yearling) and has foaled one winner from two runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed router Special Times (1-7, 46K, 0-1 on turf). Trainer Tom Proctor is 6-26 (23%, $1.73 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles on turf (0-3 at Keeneland).

5. WINNING VOWCHER (Broken Vow - Winning Bet) sold for $100,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 2 Philip H. Iselin Handicap winner Broken Vow (9-14, 725K), a stallion that is 132-8691 (15%) with juveniles and 206-1681 (12%) with turfers. This is the first starter from the unraced dam.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter New Way (5-14, 120K, 0-1 on turf), multiple Grade 2-placed router Treasure Island (2-6, 96K, 1-1 at two), and Grade 1 Matron Stakes and Grade 1 Acorn Stakes winner Finder's Fee (7-27, 708K, 3-8 at two, 0-1 on turf). Trainer Paul McGee is 0-4 over the past five years with second-time juveniles on turf.

6. SAYLER'S CREEK (Bernstein - Postulant) is a half-brother to stakes-winning sprinter Beggarthyneighbor (2-5, 111K, 0-2 at two) by two-time Irish Group 3 turf winner Bernstein (4-8, 173K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 4-8 on turf, first-turf winner), a stallion that is 27-235 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (7-57, 12%, $2.99 ROI with all debut runners in 2012) and 37-274 (14%) with first-turfers.  The dam won sprinting (1-10, 25K, 0-2 at two, 0-3 on turf, cost 30K as yearling) and has foaled three winners from three runners (2-3 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 Illinois Derby winner Antrim Rd. (5-16, 437K, 2-6 at two). Pulpit is 7-65 (11%, $1.18 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Ken McPeek is 5-58 (9%, $1.86 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf (0-1 at Keeneland). McPeek is 4-37 (10%, $1.21 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 25 workout matches McPeek's juvenile Otter Cove (finished tenth in maiden special weight debut on turf at Kentucky Downs on September 12 with 32 Beyer). The September 1 workout matches McPeek's 3-year-old filly Sovereign Song (finished tenth in maiden special weight debut over polytrack at Keeneland on October 6 with 23 Beyer). The September 29 workout matches McPeek's juvenile Midas Dancer (75 Beyer top on turf).  The September 29 workout matches McPeek's 5-year-old Noble's Promise (finished second in the Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland on October 5 with 94 Beyer).

7. BATTEN THE HATCHES (Stormy Atlantic - Masada) sold for $25,000 in May after breezing two furlongs in 22.3 seconds and is a half-brother to stakes-placed router Menacing (5-24, 204K, 1-2 at two, 0-1 on turf) and multiple juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Lemondropsmypop (3-24, 79K, 1-9 at two, 0-7 on turf). Batten the Hatches is by multiple stakes-winning sprinter Stormy Atlantic (6-15, 148K, 0-1 at two), a stallion that is 228-1525 (15%) with juveniles and 406-2623 (15%) with turfers. The multiple stakes-winning dam (6-21, 267K, 1-1 at two, 0-2 on turf, cost 18K as yearling) has foaled four winners from five runners (2-4 with 2yos, 1-5 with turfers). The third dam is stakes-winning juvenile Chaleur (3-24, 96K, 1-3 at two).  Trainer Vickie Foley is 1-4 (25%, $2.35 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to turf.  No match for an odds-on favorite in lone turf start, but was very green that day.  Capable of showing good early foot as he stretches out in distance.

8. PRADO CAT (Kitten's Joy - Vineyard Vines) was bought back for $4,500 as a weanling and sold for $65,000 as a yearling.  He is a full brother to multiple juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Eva's Joy (1-4, 36K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 1-2 on turf, first-turf winner).  Prado Cat is by Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes winner Kitten's Joy (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner), a stallion that is 29-161 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (7-42, 17%, $2.00 ROI with all debut runners in 2012) and 31-202 (15%) with first-turfers.  The dam won sprinting (1-4, 14K, 0-1 at two, cost 40K as yearling) and has foaled one winner from one runner (1-1 with 2yos, debut winner, 1-1 with turfers, first-turf winner).  The second dam is multiple stakes-placed turfer Grapevine (2-12, 53K, 0-1 at two, 2-12 on turf).  Rahy is 6-53 (11%, $3.54 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Dale Romans is 1-23 (4%, $0.61 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf (0-1 at Keeneland).  Romans is 6-56 (10%, $0.70 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. 

9. INDYGO PRINCE (Indygo Shiner - Polkadot Princess) is a half-brother to stakes-winner Quiet Queen (6-28, 170K, 4-13 on turf) by Grade 3 Jefferson Cup winner Indygo Shiner (4-12, 444K, 1-3 at two, 2-6 on turf, first-turf winner), a stallion that is 2-22 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (2-22, 9%, $3.99 ROI with all debut runners in 2012) and 1-12 (8%) with first-turfers.  The unplaced dam (0-6, 3K) has foaled one winner from one runner (1-1 with turfers).  Tejano doesn't have a winner as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer David Kassen is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf.  Kassen is 0-3 with all debut runners in 2012.

10. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE (Henrythenavigator - Jewel Princess) sold for $435,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to stakes-winner One Nice Cat (4-28, 163K, 0-3 at two, 1-7 on turf), Grade 3-placed router Home Court (2-4, 73K, 1-1 at two) and Grade 2-placed router Maristar (5-17, 125K, 1-3 at two, 0-2 on turf).  Order of Magnitude is by four-time Group 1 turf winner Henrythenavigator (6-11, 2.7M, 2-4 at two, 6-10 on turf) a first-crop stallion that is 0-5 with juveniles and 0-4 with turfers in North America. The dam won four Grade 1 races (Breeders' Cup Distaff, Vanity Invitational, Santa Margarita Invitational, Santa Maria Handicap, 13-29, 1.9M, 2-3 at two, 3-7 on turf) and has foaled three winners from five runners (2-4 with 2yos, 1-4 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Topaz Runner (8-38, 157K, 1-7 at two, 0-5 on turf) and stakes-placed Precious Jewell (4-11, 67K, 0-2 at two). Trainer Wayne Lukas is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix on turf.

11. GUESS MY NAME (Giant's Causeway - Shades of Grace) was bought back for $140,000 as a yearling and is by six-time Group 1 turf winner Giant's Causeway (9-13, 3.0M, 3-3 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner), a stallion that is 23-238 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (8-56, 14%. $2.74 ROI with all debut runners in 2012) and 47-449 (10%) with first-turfers. The placed dam (0-4, 11K) has foaled one winner from three runners (1-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 Belmont Breeders' Cup Handicap winner Fortitude (5-50, 426K, 0-3 at two, 4-38 on turf, first-turf winner).  Seeking the Gold is 4-56 (7%, $0.43 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Michael Stidham is 3-22 (14%, $1.70 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf. Stidham is 3-34 (8%, $1.10 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 14, September 21 workouts match Stidham's juvenile Finding Candy (finished second in $25,000 maiden claiming debut on turf at Arlington on September 28 with 62 Beyer). The October 4 workout matches Stidham's 3-year-old Cool Street (67 Beyer top on turf).

SELECTIONS (Turf Only):
1. Guess My Name
2. Prado Cat
3. Just Play

THE PLAY (Turf Only):
Guess My Name to WIN and PLACE at 5-1 odds or greater.

***

Race 6
1 Mile (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

ANALYSIS:

1. BOURBON PRIDE (Lion Heart - Royal G G), listed as a vet scratch on September 21, sold for $25,000 as a yearling and was purchased for $85,000 in March after breezing a furlong in 10.3 seconds.  He is by Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity and Grade 1 Haskell Invitational winner Lion Heart (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two), a stallion that is 123-774 (16%) with juveniles and 19-200 (10%) with first-turfers.  The dam won on turf (2-11, 39K, 2-4 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled one winner from two runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed sprinter White She Devil (5-18, 135K, 1-4 at two) and Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup winner Headache (8-30, 820K, 0-2 at two, 0-2 on turf).  Trainer Kellyn Gorder is 1-1 (100%, $10.60 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf.

2. COMMENCING (First Defence - Dock Leaf) is by Grade 1 Forego Handicap winner First Defence (6-14, 580K, 1-3 at two, 1-1 on turf), a first-crop stallion that is 1-21 (5%) with juveniles and 0-5 with turfers.  The dam was placed routing on a wet track (0-5, 6K, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled five winners from six runners (1-5 with 2yos, 4-6 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 Hollywood Oaks winner Sleep Easy (4-18, 463K, 1-7 on turf) and Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup winner Aptitude (5-15, 1.9M, 0-2 at two, 0-2 on turf). Trainer Bill Mott is 6-76 (8%, $1.41 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles on turf (0-2 at Keeneland).

3. BYTHELITEOFTHEMOON (Indygo Shiner - Ideal Scenario) was bought back for $17,000 as a yearling and sold for $90,000 in March after breezing a furlong in 10.3 seconds.  He is by Grade 3 Jefferson Cup winner Indygo Shiner (4-12, 444K, 1-3 at two, 2-6 on turf, first-turf winner), a stallion that is 2-22 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (2-22, 9%, $3.99 ROI with all debut runners in 2012) and 1-12 (8%) with first-turfers.  The placed dam (0-14, 11K, 0-9 on turf, cost 115K as yearling) has foaled two winners from two runners (1-2 with 2yos, 02 with turfers).  The third dam is stakes-winner Best in Show (5-27, 53K, 1-15 at two). Saint Ballado is 10-62 (16%, $3.17 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012. Trainer James DiVito is 2-9 (22%, $2.48 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf. DiVito is 2-20 (10%, $0.87 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 31 workout matches DiVito's juvenile Last Gun in Texas (finished second in $12,500 maiden claiming debut over Arlington's polytrack on September 3 with 50 Beyer).

4. GIACOSLEW (Giacomo - Slewska) sold for $12,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Seattle Ex (1-3, 34K, 1-3 at two).  Giacoslew is by Grade 1 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo (3-16, 2.5M, 1-4 at two), a stallion that is 28-209 (13%) with juveniles and 17-109 (16%) with turfers.  The unplaced dam (0-2, 0-2 at two, cost 450K as yearling) has foaled three winners from five runners (2-3 w8-4ith 2yos, 0-2 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Chihulykee (8-43, 243K, 0-2 at two, 3-24 on turf), stakes-winner Icy Wind (Brazil), stakes-placed Furious Wind (Brazil) and multiple stakes-winner The Exeter Man (9-43, 536K, 1-5 at two, 0-4 on turf).  Trainer Marcos Medrano is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles on turf.

5. MAJESTIC STRATEGY (Aramus - Royal Strategy) is by route winner Aramus (1-4, 16K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 on turf), a stallion that is 0-6 with juveniles and 1-4 (25%) with first-turfers.  The unplaced dam (0-2, 0-2 on turf) has foaled no winners from three runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Bujagali (5-28, 116K, 4-14 on turf, first-turf winner).  Trainer Ackel Hebert is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles.

6. AMEN KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Crumbs of Comfort), foaled in Illinois, is by Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes winner Kitten's Joy (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf), a stallion that is 88-478 (18%) with juveniles and 157-1063 (15%) with turfers. The dam won routing over a wet track (1-6, 36K, 0-1 on turf, cost 60K as yearling) and this is her first starter. The third dam is European multiple stakes-placed turfer Land of Ivory. Trainer Wesley Ward is 5-9 (56%, $3.78 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going third off the layoff on turf.

7. ROCKING HALL (Showing Up - Sweet Brandy) sold for $30,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 1 Hollywood Derby and Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes winner Showing Up (7-10, 1.6M, 4-6 on turf, first-turf winner, a first-crop sire that is 0-12 with juveniles and 0-3 with first-turfers.  The unplaced dam (0-1, cost 60K as short yearling) has foaled one winner from two runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with turfers, first-turf winner). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Adorable Slew (4-16, 73K). According to the "Keeneland Clocker Report" for October 5, Rocking Hall "continues to show good morning trials."

8. BOLD CHALLENGER (Exchange Rate - Best Mom) sold for $195,000 as a yearling and is by Grade 2 Tom Fool Handicap winner Exchange Rate (6-15, 479K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 2-4 on turf, first-turf winner), a stallion that is 34-233 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (8-42, 19%, $3.43 ROI with all debut runners in 2012) and 25-219 (11%) with first-turfers.  The dam was multiple stakes-placed on turf (3-30, 142K, 2-8 at two, 2-19 on turf, cost 65K as yearling) and this is her first starter.  The second dam is stakes-winner Leaveemlaughing (3-20, 149K, 1-2 at two, 2-12 on turf).  Chester House is 1-25 (4%, $0.36 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Ken McPeek is 5-58 (9%, $1.86 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf (0-1 at Keeneland). McPeek is 4-37 (10%, $1.21 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The September 22 workout matches McPeek's juvenile Stevland (finished seventh in maiden special weight debut on dirt at Belmont on September 29 with 56 Beyer). The September 30 workout matches McPeek's juvenile Frac Daddy (finished second in maiden special weight debut on dirt at Belmont on October 4 with 70 Beyer).

9. KAMCHATKA (Tale of the Cat - Saratoga Drive) sold for $550,000 in March after breezing a furlong in 10.2 seconds.  He is by Grade 2 King's Bishop Stakes winner Tale of the Cat (5-9, 360K, 1-1 on turf), a stallion that is 238-1306 (18%) with juveniles and 216-1813 (12%) with turfers.  The dam was stakes-placed routing (2-11, 89K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 on turf, cost 100K as yearling) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple European Group 3 turf winner Voyagers Quest (4-15, 222K, 2-4 at two, 4-15 on turf), multiple stakes-placed juvenile Orange U Tricky (9-86, 125K, 2-9 at two) and multiple juvenile stakes-winning sprinter One By the Knows (5-23, 182K, 3-6 at two, 0-6 on turf). Trainer Michael Maker is 1-4 (25%, $1.10 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going third off the layoff on turf. Ran very well in a live stakes heat at Louisiana Downs on September 8 (the winner returned to finish third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity with a 78 Beyer while the runner-up came back to place second in the Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes with a 74 Beyer).  Kamchatka raced four wide around both turns in that spot and is the one to beat as he drops back in with maidens.

10. RED WINGS (English Channel - Heavenly Ransom) is by a six-time Grade 1 turf winner (United Nations Stakes twice, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational twice, Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, Breeders' Cup Turf, 13-23, 5.3M, 1-1 at two, 13-22 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 12-137 (9%) with juveniles and 15-78 (19%) with first-turfers.  The dam won the Grade 3 Wilshire Handicap (5-6, 181K, 5-6 on turf, first-turf winner, cost $22,000 as yearling) and has foaled no winners from two runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Capitano (7-36, 576K, 1-4 at two, 4-21 on turf) and stakes-winning juvenile Dilemma (6-24, 367K, 2-5 at two, 3-11 on turf, first-turf winner).  Trainer Wayne Lukas is 0-5 over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to turf while adding Lasix. The September 9 workout matches Lukas' juvenile filly Indiz (0 Beyer on dirt). The September 22 workout matches Lukas' juvenile Will Take Charge (66 Beyer on dirt).

11. XINGU (Chelokee - Lazurita) is by Grade 3 Northern Dancer Stakes winner Chelokee (5-10, 385K, 1-3 at two), a first-crop stallion that is 1-10 (10%) with juveniles and 0-1 with turfers.  The dam was a multiple Group 1 winner in Brazil (7-11, 76K, 3-3 at two, 6-10 on turf) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Brazilian stakes-winner Hypnotiseur.  Trainer Eduardo Caramori is 1-5 (20%, $1.00 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles on turf (0-1 at Keeneland).

12. HOLIDAY STAR (Harlan's Holiday - Spring Star), foaled in Pennsylvania, is by Grade 1 Florida Derby, Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes and Grade 1 Donn Handicap winner Harlan's Holiday (9-22, 3.6M, 4-6 at two), a stallion that is 35-241 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (9-55, 16%, $1.45 ROI with all debut runners in 2012) and 25-206 (12%) with first-turfers.  The dam was placed sprinting on a wet track (0-1, 1K) and has foaled one winner from two runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Spring Season (5-30, 286K, 0-1 at two, 4-23 on turf). Deputy Minister is 7-99 (7%, $1.12 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2012.  Trainer Graham Motion is 4-52 (8%, $0.73 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf. Motion is 5-62 (8%, $1.08 ROI) with all debut runners in 2012. The August 31, September 7, September 14 workouts match Motion's juvenile Under Advisement (finished sixth in maiden special weight debut on dirt at Delaware on September 22 with 36 Beyer). The September 21 workout matches Motion's 4-year-old filly Another World (finished seventh in the HPBA Stakes over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs with a 70 Beyer). The September 28 workout matches Motion's juvenile Cerro (finished sixth in the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes on turf at Belmont on October 8 with 42 Beyer). The September 28 workout matches Motion's 3-year-old filly Absolute Crackers (92 Racing Post Rating on turf in Ireland, entered in Wednesday's eighth race). The September 28 workout matches Motion's 3-year-old Capitan Futuro (a maiden winner on synthetic in Italy). The October 5 workout matches Motion's juvenile Heat Press (58 Beyer on dirt).

SELECTIONS (Turf Only):
1. Kamchatka
2. Bold Challenger
3. Bourbon Pride

THE PLAY (Turf Only):
Kamchatka - Bold Challenger Exacta
Kamchatka - Bourbon Pride Exacta

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