10/18/2006 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for Friday

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! This meet should be a challenge for the 2-year-olds as many will race over Polytrack for the first time. I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile contest at the meet, and hopefully will improve on the profits made with "Spa Babies." Good luck!

Friday, October 20, 2006

Race 2
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
PROMISEI'LLBEHOME is by a promising young sire out of a mare that was a sprint stakes-winner at age two (won career debut, 241K in earnings). Shows bullet works at Delaware for debut, and crafty barn is having a fantastic year (20% winners). Many of GRASSHOPPER's workouts match up with Neil Howard's solid older runner Patriot Act (96 Beyer top), and that bodes well for the homebred's chances. The full brother to stakes-winner Straw Hat (juvenile winner, 105K at two) should give a good account of himself. BARKLEY SOUND shows solid works for underrated barn, and half-brother Don't Get Mad not only won the Grade 2 Indiana Derby, but was a perfect 2-2 as a juvenile. The dam was multiple Grade 3-placed sprinting, and this colt may avoid traffic trouble breaking from the far outside post. TORINI debuts for excellent connections, and he is the first foal out of a multiple stakes-winner that won her debut at two. He wouldn't be a surprise. FLASHSTORM had trouble over a speed-favoring Saratoga track on August 26. He earned a big Beyer in his previous start, and may sit a good stalking trip while racing in the clear. ACADEMY TALKS showed speed in career debut, and gets a big rider switch to Bejarano. Makes the turf-to-Polytrack move that has been very successful at the meet.

The Bet: Promisei'llbehome to Win and Place (4-1 or more)

Race 6
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds.
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
VICARIAN is a full brother to juvenile sprint winner City Attraction, and his dam sold for $120,000 as a yearling. Bled in debut at Arlington, but gets Lasix for live barn, and the second-starter, first-Lasix angle is huge in maiden races. SILVER SOURCE is a half to stakes-placed sprinter Every Advantage (70K), and the dam is a half to Grade 1 juvenile winner Consolidator. Silver Source raced greenly in debut, but received quite an education racing in and among horses going into the turn. Expect an improved showing. LISSELAN RIGHTCALL has steadily improved since blinkers were added to the arsenal, and he has the experience edge over his rivals. Offers value going out for low-profile barn. TREASURE HUNTER never got on track in short sprints to start career, but may do better stretching out two furlongs. It's too early to give up on this son of Storm Cat. GRAND ALIBI's workmate is entered in the first division so see how that one fares before making your final decision on this son of Grand Slam. MUTADDA is by extremely underrated debut sire, and has lots of pedigree. He's a half to multiple Grade 1-placed Chile Chatte, Grade 3 winner Jadada, and multiple Grade 3 winner Shaconage.

The Bet: Vicarian to Win (7-2 odds or more)

Race 7
6 Furlogns (Polytrack)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-old fillies.
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
TALETOBETOLD couldn't go with even-money winner in River Downs stakes, but finished ahead of a pair of next-out winners that day, and reunites with Leparoux (aboard for maiden win at Churchill Downs). The daughter of Tale of the Cat has good speed, and should be prominent when they turn for home. COZYS PROMISE had some traffic trouble in first Polytrack start, and should appreciate dropping down in class and distance. Switches to high-percentage rider Gomez. MISS HOLIDAY INN blitzed maiden claimers in first start over Polytrack, but figures to face more pace pressure in this spot. Earned a solid number graduating, and is bred for speed on both sides of the pedigree. ORIENTAL ROSE has tactical speed, and attracts Bejarano after winning effort at Hawthorne. There's some class on the bottom of her pedigree, and her turf bloodlines may play well over Polytrack. COLTON'S MAGIC CAT is a nose away from being a perfect 2-2 over turf. Obviously a threat, and the barn has been heating up the last few days.

The Bet: Taletobetold - Cozys Promise exacta, Taletobetold - Miss Holiday Inn exacta