04/02/2008 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for April 4

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile maiden contest for the meet. It won't be easy with limited form on display, but I'll shoot for a profit.

Race 1
4 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

1. Cowboy At Heart (Ocean Terrace - Vic's Nostalgia, by Nostalgia's Star)
Trainer: Bobby Barnett
- Foaled March 16, 2006 in Kentucky
- $10,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton July)
- $7,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton October
- first-crop sire a Grade 3 route winner (5-3-0-0, $160,400, 1-1 at two)
- this is sire's first starter
- dam was a route winner (64-5-9-6, $101,308, unraced at two)
- dam has two runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- trainer is 2-51 (4%, $0.92 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland

2. Yo Joe (Wertaloona - Yoshi Go, by Rivergo)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
- Foaled March 22, 2006 in Oklahoma
- full brother to stakes-placed sprinter Yo Fanci (10-4-1-2, $88,712, unraced at two)
- sire was multiple stakes-placed (31-3-4-4, $38,403, 0-2 at two)
- sire is 2-16 (13%) lifetime with juvenile debut runners
- sire had no debut winners in 2007/2008
- dam was unraced
- dam has three runners, two winners, two juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- trainer is 121-604 (20%, $1.91 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 19-74 (26%, $2.63 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 7-42 (17%, $1.08 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (all with Lasix)
- March 25 workout matches up with Merkel

3. Go Flight (Cape Canaveral - Fine Bluff, by Pine Bluff)
Trainer: David Paulus
- Foaled March 15, 2006 in Kentucky
- out yearling (Keeneland September)
- sire a Grade 3 sprint winner (4-3-0-1, $128,640, 1-1 at two)
- sire is 23-91 (25%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-8 (25%, $4.50 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008
- dam was unraced (sold for $27,000 as a yearling)
- dam has one runner, no winners, no juvenile runners
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Oh Niner (34-8-4-6, $202,920, unraced at two)
- Pine Bluff was 4-44 (9%, $1.10 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 3-30 (10%, $0.98 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer was 1-6 (17%, $1.60 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007 (winner was a juvenile with Lasix)

4. Merkel (Forest Wildcat - Lady Blockbuster, by Silent Screen)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
- Foaled February 20, 2006 in Kentucky
- $150,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton August)
- half-brother to Grade 3 sprint winner Mellow Fellow (32-11-5-6, $553,916, unraced at two)
- half-brother to sprint stakes-winner Zawzooth (18-5-3-3, $233,000, unraced at two)
- sire a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (20-9-2-1, $478,862, 2-5 at two)
- sire is 36-266 (14%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-9 (22%, $3.42 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008
- dam was a sprint stakes-winner (15-5-2-2, $83,854, 2-3 at two, sold for $9,000 and for $13,000 as a yearling)
- dam has six runners, five winners, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter To Geaux (3-1-0-1, $12,300, all races sprinting at two)
- Silent Screen was 1-23 (4%, $0.40 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 121-604 (20%, $1.91 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 19-74 (26%, $2.63 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 7-42 (17%, $1.08 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (three with Shaun Bridgmohan riding, one for Heiligbrodt Racing Stable, all with Lasix)
- March 25 workout matches up with Yo Joe

5. Iron Legacy (Runaway Groom - Iron Miss, by Fit to Fight)
Trainer: Barbara Beagle
- Foaled February 6, 2006 in Kentucky
- sire a Grade 1 route winner (18-6-5-1, $347,537, unraced at two)
- sire is 49-480 (10%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire was 1-31 (3%, $0.55 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was unraced
- dam has one runner, no winners, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner An Affirmation (48-11-5-5, $202,043, 1-5 at two)
- dam a half-sister to Group 3-placed turfer Ivory Fields (in England)
- dam a half-sister to French stakes-winning turfer Nityo
- Fit to Fight is 2-12 (17%, $2.05 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008
- trainer is 1-6 (17%, $2.93 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (all starters at Keeneland)

6. Notonthesamepage (Catienus - Blue Holiday, by Cure the Blues)
Trainer: Wesley Ward
- Foaled March 19, 2006 in Kentucky
- withdrawn yearling (Keeneland September)
- $49,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton October)
- sire a route stakes-winner (22-5-5-2, $370,386, 2-4 at two in England)
- sire is 11-134 (8%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire was 5-46 (11%, $2.37 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was a sprint winner (36-9-9-4, $303,170, unraced at two)
- dam has one runner, no winners, one juvenile runner
- Cure the Blues is 3-20 (15%, $2.67 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008
- trainer is 30-107 (28%, $2.05 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 3-7 (43%, $4.63 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 1-8 (12%, $2.12 ROI) with all debut runners this year (one juvenile debut winner with Lasix)

7. Kickapoo (Indian Charlie - Rainbow's End, by Siphon)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Foaled April 25, 2006 in Kentucky
- $75,000 yearling (Keeneland September)
- sire a Grade 1 route winner (5-4-0-1, $616,120, 1-1 at two)
- sire is 22-142 (15%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 6-20 (30%, $3.88 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008
- dam was placed sprinting (5-0-1-0, $9,166, sold for $95,000 as a yearling)
- this is dam's first runner
- second dam is juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Marlee's Rain Bow (19-1-3-2, $45,680, 0-9 at two)
- Siphon was 1-22 (5%, $0.33 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007)
- trainer is 99-444 (22%, $1.60 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 12-38 (32%, $2.09 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 5-28 (18%, $1.72 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (four winners ridden by John Velazquez, all with Lasix)
- March 31 workout matches barn's three-year-old Ready for May (50 Beyer Speed Figure on turf)

Analysis:
Let's go with a price in the first baby race of the meet. GO FLIGHT is by a high-percentage first-out sire, and has been training steadily over the Turfway Park polytrack in preparation for his career debut. He hails from the classy female family of Broadway Forli, and should offer lots of value as he faces firsters from the high-profile barns of Steve Asmussen, Todd Pletcher, and Wesley Ward.
NOTONTHESAMEPAGE "looks like a quick one" according to the Keeneland clockers that viewed the March 25 bullet work out of the gate. He's from the family of Grade 1 winner Bedside Promise, and these connections love to win races at Keeneland. Uncoupled stablemates YO JOE and MERKEL worked in company with unraced Bedrigger on March 25, and they were "unseparable and all in restraint" according to the Keeneland Clockers. Merkel may be the preferred runner as Steve Asmussen's go-to rider, Shaun Bridgmohan, lands here. Neither would be a surprise.
KICKAPOO produced a "sharp gate work, head and head with Ready for May," according to the Keeneland Clockers that watched the March 31 bullet drill. Kickapoo won the fastest of three divisions of the quarter-mile Aiken Trials on March 15, and goes out for top connections. COWBOY AT HEART shows four bullet workouts, but needs to hustle from the inside post. IRON LEGACY also shows a superior workout, but may want a bit more ground

Selections:
1. Go Flight
2. Notonthesamepage
3. Yo Joe

The Play: Go Flight to win and place (6-1 odds or more)