04/11/2007 12:00AM

Keeneland Babies on April 12

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile maiden contest for the meet, and hopefully will end up with a tidy profit.

Thursday, April 12, 2007
Race 2
4 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

1. Billie Bob (Bring the Heat - Purgatory, by Devil's Bag)
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Foaled February 3, 2005 in California..sire a stakes-placed sprinter (7-3-1-1, $121,260)...sire 1-4 (25%) with juvenile firsters...dam was a stakes-placed sprinter (11-3-1-1, $94,600, 1-3 at two, all wins sprinting, sold for $11,000 as a yearling)...dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner, 0 juvenile winners...second dam a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Tour (28-5-5-8, $254,939, 1-2 at two, all wins sprinting), multiple stakes-winning sprinter Flight Forty Nine (14-5-1-0, $126,768, 2-4 at two, won debut, all wins sprinting), and juvenile stakes-placed Got the Goods (41-5-7-5, $150,731, 1-7 at two)...dam a full sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Pink Shoes (7-4-1-1, $121,877, 3-4 at two, won debut, all wins sprinting)...trainer is 27-104 (26%, $2.03 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-4, 25%, $1.90 ROI in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland)...March 21 workout matches up with entrymate.

1a. One Hot Wish (Bring the Heat - Wish for a Jeanne, by Roar)
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Foaled May 4, 2005 in California...sire a stakes-placed sprinter (7-3-1-1, $121,260)...sire 1-4 (25%) with juvenile firsters...dam was placed (6-0-3-0, $30,000, sold for $72,000 as a yearling, and for $300,000 as a juvenile)...dam has 2 foals of racing age, 0 starters...second dam a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Broom Dance (28-9-5-3, $330,022)...second dam a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Salem (13-7-1-1, $203,488), multiple Grade 2 winner Pumpkin Moonshine (34-6-8-6, $199,909), and multiple stakes-winner Tingle Stone (13-10-2-0, $196,571)...trainer is 27-104 (26%, $2.03 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-4, 25%, $1.90 ROI in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland)...March 21 workout matches up with entrymate.

2. Digital (Zavata - Crafty Personality, by Crafty Prospector)
Trainer: James Jackson
Foaled March 21, 2005 in Kentucky...half-brother to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Crafty Tricker (26-8-4-6, $238,518, 3-9 at two, all wins sprinting)...sire a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (13-5-1-1, $346,533, 3-6 at two, all wins sprinting)...sire 1-1 (100%) with juvenile firsters...dam a route winner (14-1-3-2, $20,755, sold for $40,000 as a yearling)...dam has 8 foals of racing age, 7 runners, 4 winners, 5 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner...dam a half to multiple stakes-winner Waki Warrior (42-7-7-3, $349,772, 2-8 at two)...trainer is 4-71 (6%, $0.92 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-27, 4%, $1.13 ROI in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland).

3. Caviarbythecreek (Storm Creek - Copper Caviar, by End Sweep)
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Foaled March 28, 2005 in California...$2,200 short yearling (Barretts January 2006)...sire a Grade 3 winner (14-4-2-3, $183,887, 2-6 at two)...sire 10-236 (4%) with juvenile firsters...dam was unplaced (2-0-0-0, $2,100, both races sprinting at two, sold for $25,000 at two)...dam has 3 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner...second dam a half to multiple stakes-winner Forty Weight (49-7-9-1, $162,891, 1-7 at two)...trainer is 3-23 (13%, $0.96) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-1 in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland).

4. Ready in the Morn (More Than Ready - Morning Spice, by Personal Hope)
Trainer: Ronny Werner
Foaled January 23, 2005 in Kentucky...sire a Grade 1 sprint winner (17-7-4-1, $1,026,229, 5-7 at two, won debut, all wins sprinting)...sire 17-110 (15%) with juvenile firsters...dam was unraced...dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner, 1 juvenile winner...dam a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Ruby Be Mine (3-2-1-0, $48,000, all races sprinting at two)...trainer is 18-132 (14%, $1.25 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (5-15, 33%, $2.16 ROI in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland).

5. High Bridled (Unbridled's Song - Highbury, by Seattle Slew)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foaled March 23, 2005 in Kentucky...$60,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)...sire a multiple Grade 1 route winner (12-5-4-0, $1,311,800, 2-3 at two, won debut)...sire 26-174 (15%) with juvenile firsters...dam was a multiple turf route winner in France (6-2-1-0, sold for $150,000 as a yearling, and for $300,000 as a juvenile)...dam has 2 foals of racing age, 0 runners...dam a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winner Pirate's Quill (12-3-2-4, $76,560, 2-9 at two), Grade 1 route winner Gal in a Ruckus (16-5-4-0, $507,868. 1-3 at two, won debut), and multiple stakes-placed router Rambuckus (27-5-2-2, $103,376)...trainer is 1-22 (5%, $2.28 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-4, 25%, $12.55 ROI in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland).

6. Must Acquit (Successful Appeal - Glorita, by Honour and Glory)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Foaled January 15, 2005 in Louisiana...sire a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (22-8-2-4, $654,681, 3-6 at two, 7 sprint wins)...sire 17-63 (27%) with juvenile firsters...dam was placed sprinting (4-0-1-0, $3,510, sold for $40,000 as a yearling, and for $140,000 as a juvenile)...this is dam's first foal...dam a half-sister to route stakes-winner Lookin Like a Lady (14-2-1-0, $51,128, 0-3 at two, both wins routing), stakes-placed sprinter Takeagiantstep (28-5-2-2, $29,973, 1-4 at two, all wins sprinting), and Cinefila (multiple juvenile stakes-winner in Mexico)...trainer is 112-563 (20%, $2.14 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (13-52, 25%, 1.97 ROI in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland)...March 18 workout matches barn's juvenile Hargill (finished fourth in debut here on Opening Day).

7. Lantana Mob (Posse - Lantana, by Copelan)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Foaled February 17, 2005 in Kentucky...sire a Grade 2 sprint winner (18-7-2-2, $662,841, 2-7 at two, won debut, all wins sprinting)...this is sire's first starter...dam was placed sprinting as a juvenile (5-0-1-1, $3,239, all races at two)...dam has 5 foals of racing age, 4 runners, 4 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 1 juvenile debut winner...trainer is 112-563 (20%, $2.14 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (13-52, 25%, 1.97 ROI in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland)...February 25 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Sky Mom (finished second here on April 7).

Analysis:
This looks like a very tough heat to handicap with top debut trainers Ronny Werner, Wesley Ward, and Steven Asmussen all represented. Ward sent out a debuting juvenile filly to beat the boys in the first baby race of the meet, and both halves of his coupled entry seem capable here. ONE HOT WISH worked "in hand," according to the Keeneland clockers on April 7. She has speed on the top of her pedigree, and class on the bottom. BILLIE BOB blitzed 3 furlongs out of the gate in 34 and change on April 7.
LANTANA MOB must overcome the far outside post, but he seems well-prepped for this with workouts stretching back to late February. He's bred for speed on both sides of the pedigree. MUST ACQUIT is an early foal, and thus may have a maturity edge over his rivals. His sire specializes with juvenile firsters. READY IN THE MORN shows a very quick gate move for Werner. Homebred's sire was a precocious juvenile.

Selection: Ward entry to win (2-1 odds or more)

Meet statistics (starts, wins, top picks in the money, profit/loss based on day's wager with odds limit): 2-0-0 (Even)