04/05/2007 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 4/7

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile maiden contest for the meet, and hopefully will end up with a tidy profit.

Yesterday’s result: Hargill finished fourth at 2-1 odds, but we were spared a losing wager as she went off beneath our odds limit for the race.

Saturday, April 7, 2007
Race 1
4 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. Atlanta Breeze (Swing Lord – Princess Greeley, by Mr. Greeley)
Trainer: Barry Kirkham
Foaled April 11, 2005 in Kentucky…sire a route winner (12-1-0-4, $23,580)…this is sire’s first starter…dam was unraced (sold for $117,000 as weanling, $155,000 as yearling)…dam has 4 foals of racing age, 3 runners, 3 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners…dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Becky In Pink (23-7-2-4, $209,896, 1-4 at 2, 5 route wins), and Grade 3 winner Miss Matched (13-5-1-3, $339,799, 1-3 at 2, won debut)…trainer is 0-6 over the past five years with juvenile firsters (none at Keeneland at 4.5 furlongs).

2. American County (Gibson County – Young American, by Pentelicus)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Foaled January 26, 2005 in Florida…$67,000 juvenile (OBS February 2007, worked a bullet 10 seconds flat at the sale)…sire a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (25-5-3-5, $376,465, 3-5 at 2, 4 sprint wins)…sire 2-8 (25%) with juvenile firsters…broodmare sire the damsire of two debut winners in 2007…dam was placed (9-0-2-2, $4,090, 0-4 at 2, all races sprinting, cost $12,000 as a yearling)…dam has 5 foals of racing age, 4 runners, 2 winners, 1 juvenile runner, 1 juvenile winner)…dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Propulsor (44-4-9-6, $93,159, 3 sprint wins), and stakes-winner Roana Gale (29-5-2-5, $128,454, 4-10 at 2, 4 sprint wins)…trainer is 24-180 (13%, $1.45 ROI) with juvenile firsters over the past five years (1-5, 20%, $2.44 ROI in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland)…trainer has one debut winner this year (Gulfstream Park, maiden special weight, Lasix on, 12-1 odds).

3. Ride Em Cowgirl (Mazel Trick – Greatcaesar’sghost, by Collier)
Trainer: Trudy Feliciano
Foaled April 1, 2005 in Kentucky…$25,000 yearling (Keeneland September), out (Keeneland April 2007)…sire a Grade 2 sprint winner (10-6-2-1, $435,640)…sire 13-110 (12%) with juvenile firsters…dam a stakes-winning sprinter (20-3-5-5, $76,276, 2-4 at 2, won debut, all wins sprinting)…dam has 9 foals of racing age, 8 runners, 7 winners, 5 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 1 juvenile debut winner)…second dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Greenbriar (55-12-6-8, $63,012)…trainer is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-1 at 4.5 furlongs at Keeneland).

4. Alayna the Cat (Malabar Gold – Numerous Searches, by Numerous)
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Foaled March 16, 2005 in Kentucky…$4,700 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)…sire a Grade 3 turf sprint winner (15-6-2-2, $325,622, 1-3 at 2, all wins sprinting)…sire 1-23 (4%) with juvenile firsters…dam was unplaced (1-0-0-0, $70)…dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner)…dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Herrat of Gold (37-8-8-8, $263,783, 2-6 at 2, 7 route wins), juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Wreath of Gold (22-3-4-3, $70,933, 2-6 at 2, won debut, all wins sprinting), and Grade 3 winner Lost at Sea (17-5-2-4, $278,126, 1-5 at 2, 4 route wins)…barn 2-34 (6%, $0.81 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-11, 9%, $1.33 ROI in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland)…March 10 workout matches barn’s 3yo filly Impossible Beauty (finished fifth in 50K maiden claimer at Turfway on March 31 with 45 Beyer)…March 31 workout matches Kristal Sparkle.

5. Sky Mom (Maria’s Mon – Swiftly Classic, by Sky Classic)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Foaled February 26, 2005 in Kentucky…$27,000 short yearling (Keeneland January 2007)…sire a multiple Grade 1 winner at two (7-4-1-1, $507,140, 4-5 at 2, won debut)…sire 24-226 (11%) with juvenile firsters…broodmare sire the damsire of a debut winner in 2007…dam a route winner (6-1-0-2, $25,300)…dam has 3 foals of racing age, 2 runners, 2 winners, 1 juvenile runner, 1 juvenile winner)…dam a full sister to stakes-winner Classic Alliance (44-7-2-10, $172,428, 1-2 at 2, 6 turf wins), and juvenile Grade 3 turf winner Sky Alliance (12-2-4-1, $325,733, 2-5 at 2, both wins on turf)…trainer is 112-565 (20%, $2.12 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (13-53, 25%, $2.04 ROI in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland)…trainer has three debut winners this year (2 in open maiden special weights, all with Lasix). March 3, March 18 workout matches Elocution…March 27 workout matches barn’s 4yo Pimm’s O’ Clock (82 Beyer top).

6. Amber Jae (Valid Lightning – Nutty Rene’, by Squan Lake)
Trainer: John Hancock
Foaled January 28, 2005 in Kentucky…sire was stakes-placed (47-9-3-6, $217,812, 8 wins sprinting…this is sire’s first starter…dam a winner (72-3-13-15, $99,741, all wins routing)…this is dam’s first foal…barn is 0-13 over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-1 in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland).

7. Kristal Sparkle (Yankee Victor – Winged Attack, by Silver Hawk)
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Foaled March 1, 2005 in Kentucky…$3,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)…sire a Grade 1 winner (19-8-3-1, $833,806, 1-3 at 2, 6 route wins)…sire 12-70 (17%) with juvenile firsters (3 debut winners this year)…broodmare sire the damsire of a debut winner in 2007…dam was unraced…dam has 3 foals of racing age, 2 runners, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner, 1 juvenile winner…second dam a Grade 3 winner (20-3-6-4, $298,996, 0-1 at 2)… barn 2-34 (6%, $0.81 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-11, 9%, $1.33 ROI in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland)…March 3 workout matches Alayna the Cat.

8. Elocution (Mutakddim – Imaginary Number, by Hero’s Honor
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Foaled April 6, 2005…withdrawn (Keeneland January 2006), $61,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)…half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Copelan’s Number (115-19-29-16, $445,511, 1-8 at 2, 16 wins sprinting), and multiple stakes-winner Imaginary Sword (18-4-6-2, $185,430, 3-12 at two, 3 of 4 wins either routing or on turf)…sire a turf stakes-winner in England (17-5-3-2, $126,174, 1-3 at 2, all wins sprinting)…sire 31-165 (19%) with juvenile firsters (3 debut winners this year)…dam a winner (38-8-9-4, $57,380, 0-4 at 2, all wins sprinting)…dam has 9 foals of racing age, 7 runners, 5 winners, 5 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners… trainer is 112-565 (20%, $2.12 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (13-53, 25%, $2.04 ROI in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland)…trainer has three debut winners this year (2 in open maiden special weights, all with Lasix, 1 for this owner). March 3, March 18 workout matches Sky Mom.

9. Nea Nea Denae (Bertrando – Heart of Whimsy, by Pine Bluff)
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Foaled January 5, 2005 in California…$17,000 short yearling (Barretts January 2006)…sire a multiple Grade 1 winner (24-9-6-2, $3,185,610, 3-4 at 2, won debut, 7 route wins)…sire 28-206 (14%) with juvenile firsters…dam was unraced…this is dam’s first foal…second dam a juvenile debut winner…second dam a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Echo of Yesterday (25-13-2-1, 437,750), Grade 1 winner Pirate’s Revenge (20-9-6-1, $521,025), turf stakes-winner Caribbean Pirate (11-4-1-2, $171,450, 3 wins on turf)…second dam a half-sister to turf stakes-winner Sweet Life (13-4-1-1, $223,486, 1-1 at 2, 3 turf wins), and Grade 2-placed Strive (24-4-8-3, $287,910, 0-2 at 2, 3 route wins)…trainer 28-104 (27%, over $2.25 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-3, 33% positive ROI in 4.5 furlong races at Keeneland)…trainer has 5 debut winners this year (one at Keeneland, 4 juveniles, all with Lasix, 3 in open maiden special weights)…March 20 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Yogi’ssplashofgold (beat the boys first out in yesterday’s Keeneland baby race).

Analysis:
Wesley Ward is on quite a roll with his babies, and NEA NEA DENAE may have worked in company at Palm Beach Downs with Friday’s baby race winner, Yogi’ssplashofgold. Bertrando is a solid debut sire, and there is a lot of class in the female family. Nea Nea Denae must avoid the far outside post, but should have enough speed to find a nice forward spot under Rafael Bejarano. SKY MOM goes out for the always-dangerous Asmussen barn. She’s bred for speed on top, and stamina on the bottom, and seems well-prepped for her debut. KRISTAL SPARKLE is by a hot debut sire, and there is some class buried deep in her female family. She only cost $3,000 as a yearling, however. Stablemate ALAYNA THE CAT shows some quick works for her debut, and her sire was very fast. AMERICAN COUNTY is bred top and bottom for speed, and she worked extremely fast at Ocala earlier in the year. May be the value play. ELOCUTION is by one of the most underrated debut sires in the world, and the dam has thrown some classy competitors. Wouldn’t be a surprise.

The selection: Nea Nea Denae to win (2-1 odds or more)