04/02/2009 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 4/4

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully wind up with a tidy profit.

Friday's results:
Foot the Bill scratched. Second choice Jealous Again finished first.

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Race 1
4 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. Dreaminofjosephine (El Corredor - Kenbu, by Kenmare)
Trainer: Wesley Ward
- Foaled April 18, 2007 in Kentucky
- $170,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
- half-sister to multiple Group 3-placed turfer (Japan) Symboli Sword (28-7-4-1, $1,679,391, 2-3 at two, won debut, 0-1 in main track sprints)
-half-sister to Group 3 turf winner (Japan) Sweet Orchid (14-3-4-2, $875,275, 1-5 at two, 1-4 in main track sprints)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (10-7-1-0, $727,920, 1-2 at two, 4-6 in main track sprints)
- sire is 15-149 (10%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire was 2-68 (3%, $1.21 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (both older winners)
- dam was a Group 3 winner at two on turf in France (18-4-3-4, $259,631, 2-5 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints)
- Kenmare has no debut winners as a broodmare sire in 2008-2009
- dam has six runners, five winners, two juvenile runners, two juvenile winners, one juvenile debut winner, at least one main track sprint winner
- trainer is 40-126 (32%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 6-15 (40%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland (one at this meet)
- trainer is 2-5 (40%) with all debut runners in 2008 (both juvenile debut winners with Lasix and blinkers, one at this meet)

2. Five Plus Five (Value Plus - Five Corners, by Miswaki)
Trainer: Ronny Werner
- Foaled April 4, 2007 in Kentucky
- $37,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
- $47,000 RNA juvenile (OBS Open, March 2009)
- Out juvenile (OBS Spring, April 2009)
- first-crop sire was a stakes-winning sprinter (15-3-4-1, $414,595, 1-4 at two, won debut, 3-8 in main track sprints)
- this is sire's first starter
- dam was a sprint winner (8-2-2-0, $43,580, 1-4 at two, won debut, all races in main track sprints, cost $45,000 as a yearling)
- Miswaki was 7-89 (8%, $1.50 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (one juvenile debut winner, two on synthetics)
- dam has four runners, two winners, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners, four main track sprint runners, two main track sprint winner
- dam a half-sister to multiple juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Rosiano (16-1-1-3, $15,745, 1-9 at two, won debut, 1-15 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Sam Lord's Castle (16-6-2-1, $334,083, 2-4 at two, won debut, 5-11 in main track sprints)
-dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Golden Locket (18-4-4-2, $189,851, 0-1 at two, 1-5 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 18-133 (14%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 5-24 (21%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 0-9 with all debut runners in 2009
- worked two furlongs in 21.1 prior to the March sale

3. Aegean (Northern Afleet - Apt to Star, by Aptitude)
Trainer: Wesley Ward
- Foaled February 27, 2007 in Florida
- $70,000 yearling (OBS Open, August 2008)
- sire was a multiple Grade 2 winner (21-5-3-5, $626,671, 1-3 at two, won debut, 3-11 in main track sprints)
- sire is 25-173 (14%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire was 9-94 (10%, $0.90 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (five juvenile winners, two winners on synthetics)
- dam was placed sprinting at two (1-0-1-0, $3,150, 0-1 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints)
- Aptitude has no debut winners as a broodmare sire in 2008-2009
- this is dam's first runner
- dam a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Angel Island (6-1-1-0, $67,663, 1-3 at two, won debut, all races in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed turfer Fabulous Babe (8-4-2-1, $86,082, 1-1 at two, 2-3 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 40-126 (32%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 6-15 (40%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland (one at this meet)
- trainer is 2-5 (40%) with all debut runners in 2008 (both juvenile debut winners with Lasix and blinkers, one at this meet)

4. Wild Hare (Wild Zone - Rabbit, by Clever Trick)
Trainer: Wayne Mogge
- Foaled March 10, 2007 in Kentucky
- sire was a multiple stakes-winner (27-9-8-2, $509,973, 3-7 at two, won debut, 5-10 in main track sprints)
- sire is 15-208 (7%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire has not had a debut winner in 2008-2009
- dam was a winner (20-5-5-1, $26,453, unraced at two, 4-17 in main track sprints)
- Clever Trick is 1-22 (5%, $0.48 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009
- dam has six runners, four winners, four juvenile runners, one juvenile winner, six main track sprint runners, four main track sprint winners
-dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Favored Lady (23-5-3-3, $113,285, 1-3 at 2-7 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Jazz (26-5-6-3, $214,331, 1-3 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 4-37 (11%, $1.00 ROI) over the last five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer was 0-12 with all debut runners in 2008

5. Russian Kitten (Kitten's Joy - Nikita, by Slew City Slew)
Trainer: Michael Maker
- Foaled February 22, 2007 in Kentucky
- Withdrawn yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
- first-crop sire was a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (14-9-4-0, $2,075,791, 2-4 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints)
- sire is 0-1 with juvenile debut runners
- dam was a winner (83-16-16-15, $358,875, unraced at two, 4-17 in main track sprints, cost $37,261 as a yearling and $57,000 as a juvenile)
- Slew City Slew is 1-7 (14%, $1.51 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009
- dam has one runner, no winners, no juvenile runners, one main track sprint runner
- trainer is 5-76 (7%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-4 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 0-5 with all debut runners in 2009

6. Midst (Closing Argument - Procure, by Quiet American)
Trainer: Mark Casse
- Foaled March 16, 2007 in Florida
- $40,000 weanling (OBS Fall, October 2007)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 3 route winner (9-3-3-2, $986,984, 2-5 at two, won debut, 2-3 in main track sprints)
- this is sire's first runner
- dam was unraced
- Quiet American is 2-14 (14%, $1.50 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009
- dam has two runners, one winner, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners, two main track sprint runners, one main track sprint winner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Obtain (20-4-3-6, $129,102, 0-2 at two, 1-4 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Buy (30-4-4-7, $38,610, unraced at two, 3-22 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 1-placed router Demon Acquire (5-3-0-1, $73,600, 2-2 at two, 3-3 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Basic Trainee (49-11-10-3, $302,260, 1-3 at two, won debut, 9-35 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 48-247 (19%, $2.58 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 1-8 (13%, $3.10 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (older runner with Lasix for this owner)

7. Tight Jeans (Meadow Monster - Carr Dot Com, by Compliance)
Trainer: Thomas Bohannan
- Foaled March 9, 2007 in Kentucky
- $4,700 RNA short yearling (Keeneland, January 2008)
- half-sister to juvenile stakes-winner Dot Com Or Bust (33-5-5-2, $93,665, 2-5 at two, 4-24 in main track sprints)
- sire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (24-11-5-1, $496,916, unraced at two, 11-22 in main track sprints)
- sire is 16-110 (15%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire has not had a debut winner in 2008-2009
- dam was unraced
- Compliance was 3-24 (12%, $1.34 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (two juvenile debut winners)
- dam has three runners, one winner, one juvenile runner, one juvenile winner, three main track sprint runners, one main track sprint winner
-dam a full sister to stakes-placed juvenile Northern Shaker (30-4-3-7, $76,579, 1-6 at two, 2-7 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Dewars Rocks (23-4-5-4, $314,861, 1-6 at two, won debut, 1-6 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Woodford Rocks (18-2-2-2, $86,825, 0-1 at two, 0-3 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 1-3 (33%, $5.83 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer hasn't had a debut runner in 2008-2009

8. Goldie's Missile (Golden Missile - Golden Antigua, by Hansel)
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
- Foaled February 18, 2007 in Florida
- $6,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
- half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Giant Gizmo (11-6-1-1, $508,685, 1-2 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (25-7-7-4, $2,194,510, 0-1 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints)
- sire is 11-153 (7%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire was 5-71 (7%, $1.87 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (three juvenile debut winners, one on synthetic)
- dam was a multiple stakes-winner on turf (41-9-10-6, $309,260, unraced at two, 0-2 in main track sprints, cost $19,000 as a yearling)
- Hansel was 1-28 (4%, $0.24 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (older winner)
- dam has two runners, two winners, two juvenile runners, two juvenile winners, two main track sprint runners, one main track sprint winner
- female family of multiple Grade 2 winner Bar Dexter
- female family of multiple Grade 1 winner Mi Selecto
- trainer is 2-36 (6%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-11 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 0-1 with all debut runners in 2009

9. Blue Cut (Zavata - Crafty Personality, by Crafty Prospector)
Trainer: James Jackson
- Foaled March 31, 2007 in Kentucky
- half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Crafty Tricker (43-8-8-10, $285,638, 3-9 at two, 8-40 in main track sprints)
- sire was a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (13-5-1-1, $346,533, 3-6 at two, 5-12 in main track sprints)
- sire is 4-43 (9%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire was 2-38 (5%, $0.74 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (both older winners)
- dam was a route winner (14-1-3-2, $20,755, unraced at two, 0-11 in main track sprints, cost $40,000 as a yearling)
- Crafty Prospector is 1-24 (4%, $0.32 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (older winner)
- dam has nine runners, seven winners, seven juvenile runners, two juvenile winners, nine main track sprint runners, seven main track sprint winners
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winning router Waki Warrior (42-7-7-3, $349,772, 2-8 at two, 4-27 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 3-45 (7%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 1-21 (5%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 0-2 with all debut runners in 2009

Analysis:
FIVE PLUS FIVE is the first starter by Value Plus, an 8 1/2 length juvenile debut winner that twice earned 108 Beyer Speed Figures in his career. According to the Keeneland Clocker Report for March 30, Five Plus Five showed "very good gate speed, tired a bit the last furlong, in company with MIDST." This trainer-jockey team has had success with first-time starters in the past.
BLUE CUT is bred both sides for speed, and is worth a stab at a huge price.
WILD HARE's trainer, Wayne Mogge, has connected with 27% of his starters in 2009, and the filly has been training on polytrack at Turfway Park.
Midst goes out for an excellent debut barn, and her sire was a juvenile debut winner for Kiaran McLaughlin before going on to place in the Kentucky Derby. DREAMINOFJOSEPHINE and AEGEAN go out for Wesley Ward, a trainer that is absolutely deadly with juvenile debut runners. Neither would be a surprise. RUSSIAN KITTEN may want a bit more ground to work with. TIGHT JEANS shows a bullet workout at Keeneland. GOLDIE'S MISSILE may need a race.

Selections:
1. Five Plus Five
2. Blue Cut
3. Wild Hare

The Play:
Five Plus Five to Win at 9-5 odds or greater.

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):
1-1-1 (+3.00)