04/25/2007 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 4/27

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile maiden contest for the meet, and hopefully will end up with a tidy profit.

I played the meet very conservatively, but ended up with a profit regardless of where today’s selection finishes.

Friday, April 27, 2007
Race 1
4 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. Yayi (Halo’s Image – Bad Religion, by Exploit)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Foaled February 26, 2005 in Florida…$60,000 yearling (OBS August 2006), $115,000 juvenile (OBS February 2007)…sire was a multiple Grade 3 winner (26-9-6-5, $549,891, 2-4 at two, won debut, 3-9 in dirt sprints)…sire is 19-137 (14%) with juvenile firsters…dam was unraced (sold for $39,000 as a yearling, and for $10,000 as a juvenile)…this is dam’s first foal…dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 juvenile route winner Popol’s Gold (71-14-9-15, $477,465, 3-5 at two, won debut, 8-47 in dirt sprints)…trainer has 25-183 (14%) with juvenile debut winners over the past five years…(has 2 debut winners this year, 1 Keeneland baby, both with Lasix on)…trainer is 2-8 (25%) over the past five years with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland…worked 1 furlong in 10.60, and a quarter-mile in 21.80 prior to the February sale.

2. In the Bridle (Tiznow – Unbridled Sea, by Unbridled)
Trainer: Mark Hubley
Foaled February 1, 2005 in Kentucky…$75,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005), $15,000 juvenile (Fasig-Tipton February)…sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (15-8-4-2, $6,427,830, 0-1 in dirt sprints)…sire is 5-63 (8%) with juvenile firsters (has 1 older debut winner this year over Woodbine’s Polytrack)…dam was placed (13-0-1-4, $31,470, 0-2 at two, 0-4 in dirt sprints, sold for $170,000 as a yearling)…dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 0 juvenile runners…second dam was multiple stakes-winner Seaquay (69-12-16-11, $768,002, 4-13 at two, 5-17 in dirt sprints)…trainer is 3-12 (25%, $4.11 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-3, 33%, $10.60 ROI with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

3. Onashoestring (Buddha – Ayers Rock, by Slew the Knight)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foaled May 8, 2005 in Kentucky…withdrawn weanling (Keeneland November 2005), $25,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)…half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Alicita My Love (17-4-4-3, $100,595, 2-11 in dirt sprints)…sire was a Grade 1 route winner (4-3-0-0, $489,600, 0-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting)…sire is 1-37 (3%) with juvenile firsters (has 1 older debut winner over Aqueduct’s inner track in 2007)…dam was a stakes-placed router (12-3-1-0, $79,230, 1-1 at two, 2-6 in dirt sprints)…dam has 6 foals of racing age, 5 runners, 4 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner…dam a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile Learious (10-1-3-0, $70,049, 1-9 at two, 0-4 in dirt sprints)…trainer is 1-29 (3%, $1.73 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-12, 8%, $4.16 ROI with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

4. Truely Sweet (Yes It’s True – Sweet as Punch, by Two Punch)
Trainer: Eric Reed
Foaled April 8, 2005 in West Virginia…$60,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)…sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner (22-11-2-3, $1,080,700, 5-9 at two, won debut, 11-18 in dirt sprints)…sire is 23-121 (19%) with juvenile firsters (has 1 older debut winner at Gulfstream this year)…broodmare sire is the dam sire of 2 debut winners in 2007…dam was placed (4-0-1-1, $4,160, all races sprinting, cost $53,000 as a yearling)…dam has 3 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 0 juvenile runners…second dam was a juvenile debut winner, and a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Quarter Til Three (25-6-6-4, $123,360, 1-7 at two, 3-14 in dirt sprints)…trainer is 9-61 (15%, $1.78 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (2-23, 9%, $2.23 ROI with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

5. Miss Mesa (Sky Mesa – Superduper Miss, by Robyn Dancer)
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
Foaled April 4, 2005 in Kentucky…$112,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton July 2006)…sire a Grade 1 juvenile sprint winner (6-3-1-1, $633,076, 3-3 at two, 2-2 in dirt sprints)…broodmare sire the dam sire of 1 debut winner ni 2007…sire is 1-1 (100%) with juvenile firsters (his first starter won at Keeneland on Thursday)…dam was a multiple sprint stakes-winner (34-11-11-4, $608,964, 2-5 at two, 11-33 in dirt sprints)…dam has 3 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner…dam a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Lines of Beauty (33-9-10-5, $508,220, 1-2 at two, 3-9 in dirt sprints)…trainer is 4-70 (6%, $1.73 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-1 with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

6. C J’s Leelee (Mizzen Mast – Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight)
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
Foaled March 21, 2005 in Kentucky…$100,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)…sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner (11-5-2-0, $554,146, 1-3 at two on grass in France, won debut, 1-1 in dirt sprints)…sire is 1-29 (3%) with juvenile firsters (sire has 3 older debut winners, 2 on turf, at the Fair Grounds this year)…broodmare sire the dam sire of 2 debut winners in 2007…dam was stakes-placed (45-8-9-7, $175,871, 0-2 at two, 3-24 in dirt sprints, sold for $30,000 as a yearling)…dam has 3 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner, 1 juvenile winner…third dam was stakes-winner Stephanie Leigh (13-7-1-1, $123,050)…trainer is 15-167 (9%, $1.57) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (has 1 older debut winner at Gulfstream this year with Lasix and Kent D. aboard)…trainer is 1-13 (8%, $0.46 ROI) with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland.

7. Summer Punch (K. O. Punch – Summer Runner, by School Fees)
Trainer: Thomas Short
Foaled April 25, 2005 in Kentucky…sire was a Grade 3 juvenile sprint winner (6-3-2-1, $212,870, all races at two, 3-5 sprinting)…sire is 4-66 (6%) with juvenile firsters…dam was unplaced (2-0-0-0, $80, 0-1 sprinting)…this is dam’s first foal…third dam a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile Pleasant Ruler (72-9-8-11, $28,482), stakes-winner Splanion (26-4-3-4, $21,071, and stakes-placed juvenile Woodley’s Best (57-6-7-10, $31,993)…trainer is 0-32 over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

8. Racing Quality (Elusive Quality – Racey Player, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer: Patrick Byrne
Foaled March 29, 2005 in Kentucky…withdrawn weanling (Keeneland November 2005), $30,000 short yearling (Keeneland January 2006), $60,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006), $125,000 RNA (Fasig-Tipton March 2007…sire was a multiple Grade 3 winner on turf (20-9-3-2, $413,284, 5-12 in dirt sprints)…sire is 25-139 (18%) with juvenile firsters (has 2 older debut winners this year)…broodmare sire is the dam sire of 3 debut winners in 2007…dam was a stakes-placed router (13-2-5-2, $123,155, 0-1 in dirt sprints, sold for $200,000 as a yearling)…dam has 3 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 0 juvenile runners…dam a half-sister to Group 3 winner Aristis (South Africa)…trainer is 11-62 (18%, $1.51 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-2 with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland)…worked 2 furlongs in 22 flat prior to the sale in February.

9. Dubit (E Dubai – Ucandoittoo, by Honour and Glory)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Foaled March 26, 2005 in Kentucky…$24,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005)…sire a multiple Grade 2 route winner (11-5-3-0, $920,800, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting)…sire is 4-23 (17%) with juvenile firsters (has 1 older debut winner at Gulfstream this year)…broodmare sire the dam sire of 1 debut winner in 2007…dam was stakes-placed (17-5-3-4, $93,175, 1-4 at two, 4-10 in dirt sprints, sold for $60,000 as a yearling)…dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner…dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 sprint winner U Can Do It (46-14-8-7, $739,952, 4-7 at two, won debut, 14-37 in dirt sprints)…trainer has 115 juvenile debut winners over the last five years (has 7 debut winners this year, 4 juveniles, 3 Keeneland babies, 2 with Gomez aboard, 4 for this owner, all with Lasix)…trainer has 15 debut winners in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland over the past five years…February 25 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Galena (ran second in debut on April 13). March 3, March 18 work matches barn’s juvenile Hargill (finished fourth in debut on April 6)…March 3 work matches barn’s juvenile Lambada (finished fourth in debut at Lone Star on April 4 with 66 Beyer), and juvenile Deputy Dance (finished second in debut on April 26)…March 11 and March 25 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Wonderful Luck (won debut on April 18)…March 18 workout matches barn’s juvenile Rated Fiesty (won debut on April 21), juvenile Must Acquit (finished fourth in debut on April 12, and juvenile filly Wild Logic (finished fifth in debut at Woodbine on April 14)…March 25 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Predate (finished fifth in debut on April 18)…April 7 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Valid Lilly (won debut at Lone Star on April 20 with 63 Beyer).

10. Sky Mom (Maria’s Mon – Swiftly Classic, by Sky Classic)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Foaled February 26, 2005 in Kentucky…$27,000 short yearling (Keeneland January 2007)…sire a multiple Grade 1 winner at two (7-4-1-1, $507,140, 4-5 at two, 2-4 in dirt sprints)…sire is 90-685 (13%) with juveniles…broodmare sire the damsire of a debut winner in 2007…dam a winner (6-1-0-2, $25,300, lone win routing)…dam has 3 foals of racing age, 3 runners, 2 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner)…dam a full sister to stakes-winner Classic Alliance (44-7-2-10, $172,428, 1-2 at two, 6 turf wins), and juvenile Grade 3 turf winner Sky Alliance (12-2-4-1, $325,733, 2-5 at two, both wins on turf)…trainer is 122-450 (27%, $1.76 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles making their second start (1-3, 33%, $1.30 ROI with babies in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

Selections:
1. Yayi
2. Truely Sweet
3. Sky Mom

Analysis:
YAYI will have to hustle from her inside post position, but she looked good working at Ocala, and trainer Dale Romans already has a Keeneland baby winner at the meet. She’s bred for speed on both sides of the pedigree, and the sire is an underrated source of debut winners.
TRUELY SWEET is also bred for speed, and her sire does very well with debut performers. This barn doesn’t usually take a lot of play, but they often point their babies to the Keeneland spring meet. SKY MOM is the only runner in the race with experience, but she must avoid getting hung out wide from the far outside post. DUBIT goes out for potent debut connections, and she shows a solid string of workouts for her coming-out party. Garrett Gomez may have chosen this one over Sky Mom.
IN THE BRIDLE may want a bit more ground to work with. RACING QUALITY has been catching the eye of the Keeneland clockers. She gave a “quick gate effort over the dull surface” on April 17, and was commended on two other occasions for her “speedy morning trials.” She wouldn’t be a surprise for excellent barn. C J’S LEELEE was “very quick away from the gate,” on April 19 according to the Keeneland clockers, but “tired a bit during the final furlong of that work.” The April 25 drill seems much better, as they noted that she was “very well in hand.” Kent Desormeaux is riding in excellent form right now, and he gets this mount. ONASHOESTRING was “outfinished by Burgenland Kid,” according to the Keeneland clockers on April 16. Burgenland Kid is an unraced juvenile colt.

The Play: Yayi to win and place at 4-1 or more.

Meet statistics (starts, wins, top picks in the money, profit/loss based on day's wager with odds limit): 9-3-5 (+$9.20)