04/19/2007 12:00AM

Keeneland Babies for 4/20

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile maiden contest for the meet, and hopefully will end up with a tidy profit.

Friday, April 20, 2007
Race 1
4 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

1. Howboutthisdance (Harlan’s Holiday – Da Dance, by Dayjur)
Trainer: Vickie Foley
Foaled April 29, 2005 in Kentucky…$39,000 RNA short yearling (Keeneland January 2006), $55,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton July 2006), $87,000 RNA juvenile (OBS February 2007)…sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (22-9-6-1, $3,362,664, 4-6 at two, 2-3 sprinting)…this is sire’s first starter…dam was a stakes-placed sprinter (27-5-4-1, $56,632, 1-4 at two, won debut, 5-22 sprinting)…this is dam’s first foal…dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile Ice Skater (14-3-5-0, $58,497, 2-5 at two, 2-4 in dirt sprints)…trainer is 3-48 (6%, $2.02 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

2. Little Nick (Tiger Ridge – Hay Jude, by Wavering Monarch)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Foaled May 5, 2005 in Florida…sire was placed (5-0-1-1, $11,960, 0-1 sprinting)…sire is 13-85 (15%) with juvenile firsters…broodmare sire the dam sire of 1 debut winner in 2007…dam was a winner (30-5-7-1, $113,152, all raced sprinting)…dam has 2 foals of racing age, 0 runners…second dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Linear (58-13-6-8, $489,919, 3-5 at two, won debut, 11-41 in dirt sprints)…trainer is 24-178 (13%, $1.47 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (has 2 debut winners this year, 1 Keeneland baby with Kent D., and Lasix on)…trainer is 2-5 (40%, positive ROI) with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland over the past five years.

3. Star’s Classic Cat (Star Programmer – Toot’s Classic, by Well Decorated)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foaled February 9, 2005 in Kentucky…sire was Group 3 stakes-placed on dirt in Japan (23-5-0-2), all wins sprinting, won on both turf and dirt)…sire 2-39 (5%) with juvenile firsters…broodmare sire the dam sire of 1 debut winner in 2007…dam was a winner (14-1-2-2, $28,947, 1-12 sprinting)…dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner…second dam was a multiple stakes-winner (61-12-6-7, $114,538, 0-6 at two, 11-56 in dirt sprints)…trainer is 1-27 (4%, $1.86 ROI) over the last five years with juvenile firsters (1-9, 11%, $5.58 ROI with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland)…March 13 workout matches barn’s juvenile Cape of Storms (finished third in debut on April 15)…March 21 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Little Springer (finished fourth in debut on 4/18), and The Wrecker.

4. Track Record (Elusive Quality – Quick Lap, by Nicholas)
Trainer: Neil Howard
Foaled January 25, 2005 in Kentucky…$120,000 yearling RNA (Keeneland September 2006)…sire a multiple Grade 3 winner on grass (20-9-3-2, $413,284, 5-12 in dirt sprints)…sire 25-138 (18%) with juvenile firsters (has 2 older debut winners in 2007)…dam was a multiple stakes-winner (23-5-6-5, $282,858, 3-8 at two, won debut, 1-4 in dirt sprints, 4 wins on grass)…dam has 4 foals of racing age, 3 runners, 2 winners, 1 juvenile runner, 0 juvenile winners…dam a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Make Haste (15-6-3-0, $209,967, 2-2 at two, 5-10 in dirt sprints)…trainer is 3-54 (6%, $0.59 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

5. Possetothemax (Posse – Storm Witch, by Twining)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Foaled February 10, 2005 in Kentucky…sire a Grade 2 sprint winner (18-7-2-2, $662,841, 2-7 at two, won debut, 7-17 in dirt sprints)…sire is 0-4 with juvenile firsters…broodmare sire the dam sire of 1 debut winner this year…dam was a stakes-placed juvenile (16-2-5-3, $129,773, 1-3 at two, 2-13 in dirt sprints, sold for $4,000 as a yearling)…this is dam’s first foal…dam a half to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Sterling Cat (5-2-0-0, $95,427, 2-2 at two, 2-4 in dirt sprints)…trainer is over 20% from a 560+ horse sample (positive ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (has 5 debut winners this year, 2 Keeneland babies, both with Lasix, 1 for this owner)…trainer 14 debut winners in 4.5 furlong baby races over the past five years (positive ROI)…March 18, April 3 works match barn’s juvenile Hensley (finished fourth in debut on April 15)…March 25, April 3, April 10 workout matches barn’s juvenile Lantana Mob (finished second in debut on April 12)…April 3 work matches barn’s juvenile filly Predate (finished fith in debut on April 18).

6. The Wrecker (Came Home – Cap Beino, by Lyphard)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foaled March 8, 2005 in Kentucky…$52,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)…half-brother to stakes-winner Triviality (28-7-1-2, $61,892, 3-10 sprinting), and multiple stakes-placed Plum Red (37-3-4-7, $62,260, 1-3 at two, 1-10 sprinting)…sire a multiple Grade 1 winner (12-9-0-0, $1,835,940, 3-4 at two, won debut, 4-4 in dirt sprints)…sire is 3-28 (11%) with juvenile firsters (has 1 older debut winner in 2007)…dam was a multiple stakes-winner on turf (9-3-2-0, $63,300, 0-3 at 2, all wins on turf)…dam has 8 foals of racing age, 6 runners, 5 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner…second dam was Grade 1 winner Capades (27-11-9-2, $1,051,006, 2-9 at two, 2-7 in dirt sprints, 9 wins on grass)… trainer is 1-27 (4%, $1.86 ROI) over the last five years with juvenile firsters (1-9, 11%, $5.58 ROI with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland)… March 21 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Little Springer (finished fourth in debut on 4/18), and Star’s Classic Cat…March 30 workout matches barn’s juvenile Cape of Storms (finished third in debut on April 15), and juvenile Bucky Came Home (finished ninth in debut on April 15).

7. Holidaze (Harlan’s Holiday – Katilac Ofthestarts, by Katowice)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Foaled April 9, 2005 in Kentucky…$50,000 short yearling (Fasig-Tipton February 2006), $70,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton July 2006)… sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (22-9-6-1, $3,362,664, 4-6 at two, 2-3 sprinting)…this is sire’s second starter…dam was a Grade 3 winner (5-4-0-0, $121,825, 3-4 at two, 1-2 in dirt sprints, sold for $5,398 as a yearling)…sire has 6 foals of racing age, 4 runners, 4 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners…dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile Universal Lad (65-18-10-8, $46,992, 1-4 at two, won debut, 18-62 in dirt sprints), and multiple stakes-winner Astro Beauty (22-14-3-2, $364,078, 3-5 at two, 6-11 in dirt sprints)…dam is a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Astro Force (36-8-7-4, $227,380, 2-4 at two, 6-25 in dirt sprints)…trainer has over 97-400 (24%, $1.70 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (has 3 older debut winners this year, all with Lasix on)…trainer is 10-26 (38%, $1.85 ROI) over the past five years with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland.

8. Gregory’s Trick (Favorite Trick – Blue Defense, by Defensive Play)
Trainer: Leroy Simon
Foaled April 16, 2005 in Florida…$4,500 yearling (Fasig-Tipton October 2005)…sire a multiple Grade 1 winner at two (16-12-0-1, $1,726,793, 8-8 at two)…sire 61-341 (18%) with juveniles…dam was stakes-placed (40-6-5-8, $79,685, 1-3 at 2, sold for $5,200 as yearling, $4,000 as juvenile)…dam has 2 foals of racing age, 2 runners, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner…dam half to multiple route stakes-winner Alisha’s Favorite (18-4-4-1, $110,575, 0-1 at 2, all wins routing)…trainer is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles making second lifetime start.

9. Berry’s Pride (Millennium Wind – Berry Point, by Romeo)
Trainer: James Jackson
Foaled May 5, 2005 in Michigan…1/2 to multiple stakes-winner Secret Romeo (55-23-16-3, $865,790)…sire a Grade 1 winner (7-3-2-0, $769,920, 1-2 at 2)…sire 13-78 (17%) with juveniles…dam a winner (21-3-3-3, $54,030, 0-1 at 2, all wins sprinting in the mud)…dam has 6 foals of racing age, 6 runners, 4 winners, 5 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners…dam a half to multiple stakes-winner Shake Rag Ruthie (14-7-1-2, $151,922, 0-2 at 2, 6 wins sprinting), and stakes-placed Alaura (27-7-3-5, $95,616, all wins sprinting)… trainer is 7-64 (11%, $2.03 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles making second lifetime start (0-5 with second-time starters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

10. Mephistopheles (Devil’s Bag – G’nite Sweetheart, by Stop the Music)
Trainer: Kevin Lynn
Foaled April 20, 2005 in Kentucky…sire a multiple Grade 1 winner at two (9-8-0-0, $445,860, 5-5 at two, 5-5 in dirt sprints)…sire 26-291 (9%) with juvenile firsters…dam was a winner (8-1-0-0, $19,023, 1-6 at two, won debut, 1-4 in dirt sprints)…dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner…third dam was multiple stakes-placed (35-5-6-4, $25,945)…trainer is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

11. Ready’s Image (More Than Ready – Clever Phrase, by Clever Trick)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Foaled March 6, 2005 in Maryland…$410,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)…half-brother to multiple stakes-placed turfer Yingyingying (13-0-5-4, $68,806, 0-5 at two, 0-1 sprinting)…sire a Grade 1 sprint winner (17-7-4-1, $1,026,229, 5-7 at two, won debut, 7-9 in dirt sprints)…sire is 17-111 (15%) with juvenile firsters (has 2 older debut winners in 2007)…dam was a winner (31-3-6-3, $59,353, 1-4 at two, 3-26 at two, sold for $60,000 as a weanling, and for $60,000 as a yearling)…dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner…second dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Seen and Silent (11-1-1-1, $8,460), multiple stakes-placed juvenile In Full View (19-4-3-4, $143,337, 3-4 at two, won debut, 3-13 in dirt sprints), and stakes-winner Squall Valley (16-6-3-0, $218,325, 2-3 at two, 5-12 in dirt sprints)…second dam a full sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Overturned (17-5-5-0, $237,737, 0-1 at two, 1-2 in dirt sprints)… trainer has over 97-400 (24%, $1.70 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (has 3 older debut winners this year, all with Velazquez aboard, and Lasix on)…trainer is 10-26 (38%, $1.85 ROI) over the past five years with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland.

12. Black Limo (Black Minnaloushe – Goodas I. Look, by Strodes Creek)
Trainer: Warren King
Foaled April 14, 2005 in Kentucky…sire a multiple Group 1 route winner on turf in Europe (11-4-1-1, $490,945, 2-2 at two, 2-4 in sprints, all wins on grass)…sire 3-60 (5%) with juvenile firsters…dam was a winner (19-3-1-1, $86,252, 0-2 at two, all wins either on turf, or in routes, sold for $8,700 as a yearling, and for $27,000 as a juvenile)…this is dam’s first foal…second dam is a half-sister to multiple turf stakes-winner Val d’Enchere (36-8-6-4, $231,609, 0-1 at two, 0-1 in dirt sprints, all wins on grass), multiple stakes-winner Great Escape (40-10-7-6, $196,580, 1-4 at two, 4-13 in dirt sprints), turf stakes-winner Wavelength (53-8-8-12, $154,089, 0-2 in dirt sprints, all wins on grass), multiple stakes-winner Glaring (31-13-10-2, $445,585, 1-1 at two, 6-14 in dirt sprints), and stakes-placed Paragram (36-7-3-2, $276,537, 0-2 at two, 1-11 in dirt sprints)…barn is 0-6 over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-1 with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

Selections:
1. Ready’s Image
2. Possetothemax
3. Star’s Classic Cat

Analysis:
READY’S IMAGE looks like a promising firster from the powerful Pletcher barn. A $410,000 yearling buy, Ready’s Image has turned some heads in the mornings since arriving from Florida. On April 9, the Keeneland clockers noted that he gave a “good effort from the gate, much better than Miss General.” Miss General finished fourth after showing speed in her debut here the other day. More impressively, the comment for the April 15 workout revealed that Ready’s Image worked “in company with Twilight Meteor, the younger horse more than held his own against the older horse.” Twilight Meteor won the Bourbon over Polytrack last year, and added the Hallandale Beach Stakes to his resume earlier this season at Gulfstream. Ready’s Image must avoid a wide trip from an outside post, but should show enough speed to gain a good forward position.
POSSETOTHEMAX is bred for speed on both sides, and trainer Steve Asmussen has already sent out a pair of debut winners at this meet. STAR’S CLASSIC CAT seems well-prepped for his debut, and the barn has sent out some live firsters at a price in recent years. BERRY’S PRIDE gained valuable experience in career debut when off slow, and wide in the stretch.
THE WRECKER is bred mostly for turf, but that may translate nicely to Polytrack. GREGORY’S TRICK must impove off dull debut. HOLIDAZE hasn’t impressed the Keeneland clockers. On April 4, then noted that “Moroccan Affair was better than Holidaze at the finish.” On April 15, “Woodway was the better of Holidaze from the gate.”

The wager: Ready’s Image to win at 2-1 or more.

Meet statistics (starts, wins, top picks in the money, profit/loss based on day's wager with odds limit): 6-2-2 (+$9.20)