04/17/2007 12:00AM

Keeneland Babies for 4/18

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile maiden contest for the meet, and hopefully will end up with a tidy profit.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Race 1
4 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. Thunder Dancer (Thunderello – Prominent Dancer, by Moscow Ballet)
Trainer: Amalio Garcia
Foaled February 8, 2005 in Kentucky…sire was a stakes-winning sprinter (7-3-3-0, $388,400, 1-2 at two, all races sprinting)…sire 2-27 (7%) with juvenile firsters (has 1 older debut winner this year)…dam was placed (9-0-1-1, $4,140, all races sprinting)… dam has 9 foals of racing age, 7 runners, 4 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners… dam a full sister to Grade 1 juvenile winner Dominant Dancer (13-6-3-0, $460,195, 5-9 at two, won debut, 4-8 in dirt sprints)…trainer is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

2. L’ Aziza (Zavata – Glimmer Ice, by Pine Bluff)
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Foaled February 23, 2005 in Kentucky…$19,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006), out juvenile (Keeneland April 2007)…half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile sprinter Spanish Lace (3-0-0-2, $4,801, all races sprinting at two)…sire a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (13-5-1-1, $346,533, 3-6 at two, 5-12 sprinting)…sire is 1-2 (50%) with juvenile firsters (juvenile debut winner at Manor Downs)…dam was unraced (cost $35,000 as a yearling)…dam has 3 foals of racing age, 2 runners, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner)…dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Sweet Mama (26-3-0-5, $117,075, 1-6 at two, won debut, 2-15 in dirt sprints), stakes-winner Fenton Lane (66-8-10-9, $299,613, 1-4 at two, 4-26 in dirt sprints), juvenile stakes-placed turfer Ismahli (in France, won debut sprinting on grass)…trainer is 17-73 (23%, $1.77 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-4 with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland)…April 6 and April 12 workouts match up with barn’s juvenile Akin (finished sixth in career debut on April 15).

3. Little Springer (Jump Start – Destiny Due, by Diesis)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foaled February 23, 2005 in Louisiana…$24,000 RNA weanling (Keeneland November 2005), $12,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)…sire was a Grade 2 juvenile sprint winner (5-2-1-0, $221,265, 2-5 at two, won debut, 2-3 sprinting)…sire 4-47 (9%) with juvenile firsters (has 1 older debut winner this year)…broodmare sire the dam sire of 1 debut winner this year…dam was a turf winner (12-1-0-2, $12,425, 0-2 at two)…dam has 3 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner, 0 juvenile winners…dam a half-sister to turf stakes-winner Liz Cee (36-6-8-5, $212,812, 0-2 at two, 0-4 in dirt sprints, all wins on grass)…trainer is 1-26 (4%, $1.93 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-8, 13%, $6.28 ROI with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland)…April 6 workout matches barn’s juvenile Bucky Came Home (finished ninth in debut on April 15) and juvenile Cape of Storms (finished third in debut on April 15).

4. Wonderful Luck (Trust N Luck – No Small Wonder, by Capote)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Foaled March 22, 2005 in Kentucky…$75,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005)…sire a Grade 1 route winner (12-5-3-1, $727,484, 4-8 at two, won debut, 2-6 sprinting)…this is sire’s first starter…broodmare sire the dam sire of 1 debut winner this year…dam was a winner (10-1-3-1, $17,250, all races sprinting, sold for $55,000 as a yearling)…this is dam’s first foal…unraced second dam a half-sister to Group 3-placed juvenile turfer Neat Dish (Ireland), and is a full sister to sprint stakes-winner Western Winter (21-5-5-6, $312,459, 5-18 in sprints)… )… trainer is 111-558 (20%, $2.14 ROI) over the past five years (4 debut winners this year, 1 Keeneland baby with Lasix and G. Gomez) with juvenile firsters (12-47, 26%, $2.05 ROI with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland)…February 25, March 4 workouts match barn’s juvenile filly Wild Logic (finished fifth in career debut on April 14 at Woodbine)…March 25 and April 10 workouts match Predate.

5. Predate (Pure Precision – Date, by Notebook)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Foaled February 14, 2005 in Florida…sire a Grade 3 juvenile sprint winner (8-4-2-1, $186,550, 3-4 at two, won debut, all races sprinting)…this is sire’s first starter…broodmare sire the dam sire of 1 debut winner this year…dam was a winner (6-1-0-0, $11,640, 1-4 at two, 1-5 sprinting)…dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner, 1 juvenile winner, 1 juvenile debut winner…dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Skipjack (34-7-3-5, $162,280, 1-6 at two, 0-6 in dirt sprints)… trainer is 111-558 (20%, $2.14 ROI) over the past five years (4 debut winners this year, 1 Keeneland baby with Lasix for this barn) with juvenile firsters (12-47, 26%, $2.05 ROI with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland)…February 25, March 3, April 3 workouts match barn’s juvenile Hensley (finished fourth in debut on April 15)…March 18 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Galena (finished second in debut on April 13), juvenile filly Sky Mom (finished second in debut on April 7), and juvenile filly Elocution (won debut on April 7)…April 3 workout matches barn’s juvenile Lantana Mob (finished second in debut on April 12)…March 25, and April 10 works match Wonderful Luck.

6. Court Apparition (Doneraile Court – Marigalante, by Silver Ghost)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Foaled February 27, 2005 in Kentucky…$17,000 short yearling (Keeneland January 2006), $52,000 RNA yearling (OBS August 2006)…sire a Grade 3 juvenile route winner (16-6-3-2, $361,410, 2-5 at two, 1-4 sprinting)…sire 12-116 (10%) with juvenile firsters…broodmare sire the dam sire of 1 debut winner this year…dam was a Grade 3-placed juvenile (17-3-0-4, $136,846, 2-9 at two, 2-8 sprinting, sold for $27,000 as a yearling, and for $85,000 as a juvenile)…dam has 2 foals of racing age, 0 runners…sprint-winning second dam a full sister to stakes-placed Zigzippity (11-4-4-1, $76,635, 1-4 in dirt sprints), and Grade 2-placed juvenile router Brooklyn Nick (24-2-1-8, $109,418, 2-5 at two, won debut, 1-6 in dirt sprints)…dam a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile turfer Rudik (in England)…trainer is 24-178 (13%, $1.47 ROI) over the past five years (2 debut winners this year, 1 Keeneland baby with Lasix and Kent D.) with juvenile firsters (2-4, 50%, over $4 ROI with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland)…

7. Alayna the Cat (Malabar Gold – Numerous Searches, by Numerous)
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Foaled March 16, 2005 in Kentucky…$4,700 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)…sire a Grade 3 turf sprint winner (15-6-2-2, $325,622, 1-3 at 2, all wins sprinting)…sire 1-24 (4%) with juvenile firsters…dam was unplaced (1-0-0-0, $70)…dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner)…dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Herrat of Gold (37-8-8-8, $263,783, 2-6 at 2, 7 route wins), juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Wreath of Gold (22-3-4-3, $70,933, 2-6 at 2, won debut, all wins sprinting), and Grade 3 winner Lost at Sea (17-5-2-4, $278,126, 1-5 at 2, 4 route wins)…barn 1-32 (3%, $0.41 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-9 with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland)…March 10 workout matches barn’s 3yo filly Impossible Beauty (finished fifth in 50K maiden claimer at Turfway on March 31 with 45 Beyer)…March 31 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Kristal Sparkle (finished fifth in debut on April 7)…

8. Ride Em Cowgirl (Mazel Trick – Greatcaesar’sghost, by Collier)
Trainer: Trudy Feliciano
Foaled April 1, 2005 in Kentucky…$25,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006), out juvenile (Keeneland April 2007)…sire a Grade 2 sprint winner (10-6-2-1, $435,640)…sire 42-342 (12%) with juveniles…dam a stakes-winning sprinter (20-3-5-5, $76,276, 2-4 at 2, all wins sprinting)…dam has 9 foals of racing age, 9 runners, 7 winners, 6 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner)…second dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Greenbriar (55-12-6-8, $63,012)…trainer is 1-1 (100%, $52.20 ROI) over the past five years with second-time starting juveniles (won at 4.5 furlongs at Keeneland).

9. Vancy Pants (Van Nistelrooy – Almost Mystical, by General Assembly
Trainer: Eric Reed
Foaled April 15, 2005 in Kentucky…$42,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton July 2006), out yearling (Keeneland September 2006)…half-sister to sprint stakes-winner Storm Tale (48-10-6-10, $111,489, 1-4 at two, all wins sprinting)…sire a Group 2 juvenile sprint stakes-winner on turf in Ireland (6-3-1-1, $229,980, won debut, 3-4 sprinting, all wins on turf)…sire 0-1 with juvenile firsters…dam was a winner (32-1-5-7, $43,339, won on turf, 0-2 in dirt sprints)…dam has 7 foals of racing age, 5 runners, 4 winners, 5 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners…dam a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed Lilia Esther (in Panama)…trainer is 9-62 (15%, $1.75 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (2-24, 8%, $2.13 ROI with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

10. Savanah Cat (Tactical Cat – My May West, by Gone West)
Trainer: Barbara Beagle
Foaled May 23, 2005 in Kentucky…$3,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2006)…sire a Grade 1 juvenile route winner (12-4-3-2, $480,067, 3-9 at two, won debut, 3-8 sprinting)…sire 18-107 (17%) with juvenile firsters (has 1 older debut winner this year)…broodmare sire the dam sire of 3 debut winners this year…dam was a winner (15-2-1-2, $23,188, both wins on grass, 0-2 in dirt sprints, sold for $55,000 as a juvenile)…dam has 3 foals of racing age, 2 runners, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner, 0 juvenile winners…route-winning second dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Covert Operation (25-6-4-3, $182,894, 3-10 at two, 1-7 in dirt sprints), multiple Grade 2 route winner Bolshoi Boy (58-16-7-8, $1,039,702, 1-2 at two, won debut, 0-4 in dirt sprints), and juvenile stakes-winner Russian Diplomacy (45-11-11-9, $163,043, 4-9 at two, 10-38 in dirt sprints)…trainer is 1-6 (17%, $2.93 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-5, 20%, $3.52 ROI with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

11. Five Star Diva (Five Star Day – Queen Ellie, by Stalwart)
Trainer: Eric Reed
Foaled April 8, 2005 in Kentucky…withdrawn short yearling (OBS January 2006), withdrawn short yearling, (Fasig-Tipton February 2006), $10,000 RNA (Fasig-Tipton July 2006)…half-sister to stakes-placed Unaccounted Funds (22-5-3-3, $26,773, 1-4 at two, 2-14 sprinting)…sire a Grade 2 sprint winner (16-6-5-0, $575,365, 6-15 sprinting)…sire 9-45 (20%) with juvenile firsters (has 2 older debut winners this year…dam was placed (6-0-3-1, $21,830, 0-5 at two, 0-5 sprinting, sold for $25,000 as a yearling, and for $87,000 as a juvenile)…dam has 5 foals of racing age, 4 runners, 3 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners, 1 juvenile debut winner…dam a half-sister to stakes-placed J. R.’s Choice (25-4-5-2, $143,091, 0-3 at two, 0-5 in dirt sprints, all wins in dirt routes), and multiple stakes-winning sprinter Gilly’s Ghazi (23-6-6-2, $154.452, 2-9 at two, 6-18 sprinting)… trainer is 9-62 (15%, $1.75 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (2-24, 8%, $2.13 ROI with firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland)…March 30 workout matches Vancy Pants.

Selections:
1. Wonderful Luck
2. Five Star Diva
3. Savanah Cat

Analysis:
WONDERFUL LUCK is the first starter by Fountain of Youth winner Trust N Luck (finished second to Empire Maker in the Florida Derby), and Steve Asmussen is top-notch with first-time starters. It’s nice to see Garrett Gomez take the call here.
FIVE STAR DIVA is bred for speed on both sides of the pedigree, and the trainer/jockey combination had a baby finish second here the other day. Must overcome an outside post position along with SAVANAH CAT, a filly from a barn that can pop at a price with young horses. THUNDER DANCER is also strongly-bred for speed, but she’ll need an alert break from the inside post. RIDE EM COWGIRL took some money for her debut, and raced evenly behind a pair of Asmussen runners. ALAYNA THE CAT’s sire was very quick, especially on the grass, and perhaps that will translate nicely to Polytrack.
PREDATE is the “other” Asmussen, but you could argue that she shows a stronger work tab than her uncoupled mate. L’ AZIZA goes out for an excellent debut barn, and shows some quick local gate moves. LITTLE SPRINGER shows a bullet work from the gate.

The selection: Wonderful Luck to win (7-2 odds or more)

Meet statistics (starts, wins, top picks in the money, profit/loss based on day's wager with odds limit): 5-1-1 (-$2)