04/13/2007 11:00PM

Keeneland babies for 4/15

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the numbers for every juvenile maiden contest for the meet, and hopefully will end up with a tidy profit.

Sunday, April 15, 2007
Race 2
4 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

1. Pinerline (Syncline - Teresa Fern, by Sifounas)
Trainer: Danton Hays
Foaled May 6, 2005 in Kentucky...$1,500 weanling (Keeneland November 2005)...sire a stakes-winner (11-5-3-0, $172,790, 0-1 at two, all wins routing or on turf, placed in only sprint start)...sire is 1-7 (14%) with juvenile firsters...dam was a winner (17-1-4-3, $14,719, 1-14 sprinting)...dam has 10 foals of racing age, 9 runners, 7 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners...dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Willowick (32-6-4-7, $94,430)...trainer is 0-5 over the last five years with juvenile firsters.

2. Preachin Man (Songandaprayer - Sweet Cameron, by Devil's Bag)
Trainer: Ronny Werner
Foaled April 16, 2005 in Florida...withdrawn (Keeneland November 2005), $37,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006), withdrawn (OBS February 2007)...sire a Grade 1 route winner (8-3-1-1, $380,480, 2-2 at two, won debut, 2-3 sprinting on dirt)...sire 8-52 (15%) with juvenile firsters...dam was unraced (sold for $170,000 as a yearling)...dam has 2 foals of racing age, 0 runners...dam a half to Grade 3 turf winner Something Ventured (36-6-9-5, $373,881, 0-2 at two, all wins on grass), and stakes-placed sprinter Gimme Some Love (4-2-0-1, $65,771, 1-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting on dirt)...trainer is 17-132 (13%, $1.22 ROI) over the last five years with juvenile firsters (4-15, 27%, $1.87 ROI with juvenile firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

3. Hensley (Posse - I'vegothemusicinme, by Boston Harbor)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Foaled March 4, 2005 in Kentucky...$70,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)...sire a Grade 2 sprint winner (18-7-2-2, $642,841, 2-7 at two, won debut, all wins sprinting)...sire 0-1 with juvenile firsters...dam was a winner (11-2-1-1, $49,740, 2-10 at two, 2-10 sprinting, sold for $42,000 as a yearling)...this is dam's first foal...dam a half to Grade 3-placed juvenile turfer African Colony (9-1-0-1, $39,050, 1-7 at two, won on turf), Grade 3-placed router Blow Out (10-2-3-1, $106,064, 1-4 at two, 2-5 sprinting on dirt), and multiple stakes-winner Pleasant Music (21-6-5-4, $255,325, 1-4 at two, won debut, 2-6 in dirt sprints)...April 3 workout matches barn's juvenile Lantana Mob (finished second in debut on April 12)...trainer is 112-565 (20%, $2.13 ROI) over the last five years with juvenile firsters (13-54, 24%, $1.90 ROI with juvenile firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

4. Akin (Whywhywhy - Bella Volare, by Flying Continental)
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Foaled March 18, 2005 in Kentucky...out (Keeneland April 2007)...sire a Grade 1 juvenile sprint winner (9-3-1-1, $315,015, 3-5 at two, 2-6 sprinting on dirt)...sire 0-1 with juvenile firsters...dam was a winner (28-4-4-4, $154,060, 1-4 sprinting on dirt)...this is dam's first foal...sceond dam (juvenile debut winner, all wins sprinting, sold for $200,000 as a yearling) a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Noble Novice (99-19-14-22, $211,258), and multiple stakes-winner Best Game (40-12-4-4, $168,973)...trainer is 17-72 (24%, $1.80 ROI) over the last five years with juvenile firsters (0-3 with juvenile firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

5. Cape of Storms (Cape Town - U R Theweakestlink, by Flying Continental)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foaled February 23, 2005 in New York...$13,500 RNA (Fasig-Tipton August 2006)...sire a Grade 1 route winner (12-5-1-1, $795,817, 3-6 at two, 2-5 sprinting on dirt)...sire 15-104 (14%) with juvenile firsters...dam was unplaced (1-0-0-0, $0, sold for $35,000 as a yearling, and for $12,000 as a juvenile)...this is dam's first foal...dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Mellow Roll (24-7-4-4, $555,775, 5-7 at two, won debut, 4-14 in dirt sprints)...March 30 and April 6 workouts match up with stablemate Bucky Came Home...trainer is 1-24 (4%, $2.09 ROI) over the last five years with juvenile firsters (1-6, 17%, $8.32 ROI with juvenile firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

6. Seaside Storm (Hold That Tiger - Superlooper Sara, by Montbrook)
Trainer: Barry Kirkham
Foaled April 4, 2005 in Kentucky...out (Keeneland November 2005), $2,700 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)...sire a Group 1 juvenile sprint winner on turf in France (10-3-1-1, $644,235, 3-5 at two, won debut, all wins on grass, 3-4 in sprinting)...this is sire's first starter...dam was unplaced (4-0-0-0, $688, all races sprinting)...this is dam's first foal...second dam a stakes-placed sprinter (56-10-12-11, $100,496, 1-8 at two, all wins sprinting on dirt)...March 17 workout matches up with barn's juvenile filly Atlanta Breeze (finished eighth in debut here on April 7)...trainer is 0-7 over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-1 with juvenile firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

7. Witness Protection (Stravinsky - Unbridled Dancer, by Unbridled's Song)
Trainer: Eric Reed
Foaled April 26, 2005 in Kentucky...$10,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)...sire a multiple Group 1 sprint winner in England (8-3-1-1, $361,450, 1-3 at two, won debut, all wins sprinting on grass, 0-1 on dirt)...sire 6-64 (9%) with juvenile firsters...dam was a winner (5-1-0-0, $3,375, won sprinting on turf in Australia)...this is dam's first foal...dam a half-sister to Australian stakes-winner Pleasant Air...trainer is 9-61 (15%, $1.78 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (2-23, 9%, $2.23 ROI with juvenile firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

8. Pass the Bottle (Equality - Deborah's Gift, by Monetary Gift)
Trainer: James Jackson
Foaled March 20, 2005 in Michigan...$11,000 yearling (Michigan August 2006)...sire a Grade 3 route winner (10-4-1-1, $252,150, 1-3 at two, all wins either sprinting or on turf, 0-1 in dirt sprints)...this is sire's first starter...dam was unraced...dam has 2 foals of racing age, 0 runners...dam a half-sister to multiple juvenile stakes-winner Debbie's Band (19-4-2-3, $142,480, 4-5 at two, all wins sprinting on dirt), and a full sister to juvenile stakes-winner Monetary Gain (7-3-0-0, $25,275, 2-2 at two, all wins sprinting), and stakes-winning sprinter The Moderator (36-6-5-3, $99,271, 2-7 at two, won debut, all wins sprinting)...April 4, April 9 workouts match barn's juvenile Digital (finished sixth here in debut on April 12)...trainer is 4-72 (6%, $0.91 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-28, 4%, $1.09 ROI with juvenile firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

9. Unstoppable Force (Jump Start - Heavenly Aura, by St. Jovite)
Trainer: Niall O'Callaghan
Foaled April 7, 2005 in Kentucky...$20,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005), $57,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)...sire a Grade 2 juvenile sprint winner (5-2-1-0, $221,265, all races at two, won debut, 2-3 sprinting)...sire 4-46 (9%) with juvenile firsters...dam was unplaced (1-0-0-0, $320)...dam has 2 foals of racing age, 1 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner...second dam a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winner Fly North (8-3-1-1, $114,026, 2-3 at two, won debut, 2-3 sprinting)...April 5 workout matches barn's 3-year-old Jonsie's Hero (45 Beyer top)...trainer is 0-45 over the last five years with juvenile firsters (0-1 at Keeneland).

10. He Packs a Punch (Two Punch - Ogygianna, by Ogygian)
Trainer: Robert Cunningham
Foaled March 8, 2005 in Pennsylvania...$27,000 short yearling (Keeneland January 2006), $15,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton October 2006), entered (Keeneland April 2007)...sire a sprint stakes-winner (8-4-0-1, $89,795, 1-3 at two, won debut, all races sprinting)...sire 39-338 (12%) with juvenile firsters...dam was unplaced (1-0-0-0, $0)...dam has 7 foals of racing age, 3 runners, 2 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners...dam a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winner Medford (15-3-2-2, $138,370, 2-5 at two, won debut, all wins sprinting)...trainer is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile firsters.

11. Robbing the Bank (Successful Appeal - Chain Gang, by Criminal Type)
Trainer: Rebecca Maker
Foaled January 25, 2005 in Florida...$21,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)...sire a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (22-8-2-4, $654,681, 3-6 at two, 7-13 sprinting)...sire 17-64 (27%) with juvenile firsters...dam was a winner (54-5-6-10, $41,045, 0-5 at two, 2-19 in dirt sprints)...dam has 3 foals of racing age, 2 runners, 1 winner, 0 juvenile runners...second dam a multiple stakes-placed sprinter (35-7-9-8, $187,932, 0-4 at two, all wins sprinting)...April 2 workout matches barn's 5-year-old Giant Shift (93 Beyer top)...trainer is 4-39 (10%, $1.28 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (1-3, 33%, $5.73 ROI with juvenile firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

12. Bucky Came Home (Came Home - Buckys Solution, by Tiffany Ice)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foaled April 11, 2005 in Kentucky...$32,000 RNA (Fasig-Tipton November 2005), $32,000 short yearling (OBS January 2006), $30,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)...sire a multiple Grade 1 winner (12-9-0-0, $1,835,940, 3-4 at two, won debut, 4-4 sprinting)...sire 3-27 (11%) with juvenile firsters...dam a multiple juvenile stakes-winner (12-6-0-2, $220,523, 6-9 at two, won debut, 4-9 sprinting on dirt, cost $10,000 as a yearling)...dam has 6 foals of racing age, 5 runners, 3 winners, 0 juvenile runners...dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Pennine Way (47-2-7-3, $36,560, 0-6 in dirt sprints), and stakes-placed Coppawinner (60-6-7-15, $54,558, 0-7 at two, 5-49 in dirt sprints)...March 30 and April 6 workouts match up with stablemate Cape of Storms...trainer is 1-24 (4%, $2.09 ROI) over the last five years with juvenile firsters (1-6, 17%, $8.32 ROI with juvenile firsters in 4.5 furlong baby races at Keeneland).

Analysis:
HENSLEY is bred for speed on both sides of the pedigree, and will debut for one of the best first-out trainers in the world. He worked a solid half-mile out of the gate on April 3, and then followed up with a bullet three furlongs.
ROBBING THE BANK is by a top debut sire, and the local workouts look very impressive. The Keeneland clockers noted that he "stayed with Its a Danzig for the first half mile from the gate" on April 9. Its A Danzig is also trained by Rebecca Maker. He's a 3-year-old that worked 58.40 that day, and earned a 66 Beyer last year. BUCKY CAME HOME has some speed in his pedigree, but must overcome the far outside post. PREACHIN MAN has a solid pedigree, and trainer Ronny Werner can certainly get one to fire at first asking. According to the Keeneland clockers, Preachin Man was ridden by Robby Albarado for the April 10 workout, and he "was the better of Deadly Dreamer from the gate." Deadly Dreamer is an unraced 3-year-old filly.
According to the Keeneland clockers, AKIN worked in company on April 12 with unraced juvenile filly L'Aziza, and 3-year-old filly Hidden Heart (62+ Timeform rating in only start last year in Ireland). The three were "even at the wire in a strong effort." UNSTOPPABLE FORCE has lots of stamina on the bottom of his bloodlines, and may appreciate more ground. SEASIDE STORM and PASS THE BOTTLE are bargain purchases with sufficient bottom for their debuts. WITNESS PROTECTION shows bullet workouts over the surface.

Selections:
1. Hensley
2. Robbing the Bank
3. Bucky Came Home

The bet: Hensley to win at 2-1 odds or more

Meet statistics (starts, wins, top picks in the money, profit/loss based on day's wager with odds limit): 4-1-1 (Even)