10/07/2009 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/9

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet.  Hopefully, we'll end up with a tidy profit.

Friday, October 9, 2009

Race 5
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-olds
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
CALL SHOT was bet to favoritism for his career debut in July, and he wasn't disgraced when third in a field that boasted three other next-out winners including Prince Rooney, the subsequent fifteen-length winner of the Mountaineer Juvenile.  Call Shot returned from a short layoff to handle maidens nicely at Arlington, and the only other runner to race back from that heat was able to graduate with a 63 Beyer on September 27.  His experiences over polytrack should serve him well this afternoon, and there should be a good amount of pace for him to run at late.  The Keeneland clocker report noted that he "finished well under light urging" when completing a 59.40 drill on October 4.
LISTON looked good when scoring a six-furlong TKO in his career debut at Saratoga, but he basically stayed on his stool when stepped up to the Grade 1 Hopeful.  It was probably a case of too much, too soon for this beautifully-bred Darley runner, and he should appreciate the class relief.  He regularly trains over synthetic surfaces at Darley's Greentree facility, and his good speed should have him prominently placed when the field turns for home. 
HARKEN UP made a nice impression in his career debut over the Arlington turf course.  After breaking poorly in that five-furlong event, he advanced along the inside on the turn, angled out at the quarter-pole, and made up a ton of ground despite racing greenly.  Harken Up will receive Lasix for the first time here, and we've seen good turf form successfully translate into solid polytrack performances.  This Empire Maker colt has some potential.
PEGASUS DANCER, a $200,000 yearling purchase trained by Steve Asmussen, failed to attract much mutuel support for his career debut at Arlington, but he posted a solid winning performance, and has been freshened up just a bit in preparation for his initial start against winners.  Nothing that Asmussen sends to the track would be a surprise. 
GUN ROCK was forced to rally against the grain of a speed-favoring track when favored in his career debut at Saratoga, and he performed admirably, finishing second to a well-meant firster from the Todd Pletcher barn that returned to run third in the Hopeful.  Gun Rock broke his maiden second-out at this seven-furlong distance, but it remains to be seen how he'll handle this polytrack surface in the afternoon.  The $500,000 purchase has some ability, and shouldn't be far away when the field turns for home.  WESTROCK GOLD won his maiden over the dirt surface at Churchill Downs in June, and then was overmatched against Backtalk in the Bashford Manor.  He broke poorly from the inside post in his most recent start at Monmouth Park, and can be closer to the pace with a better break.  HONOR IN PEACE pulled off a 16-1 shocker as part of Wesley Ward's successful British invasion at the Ascot meet, and he had some excuses when making his stateside return at Saratoga.  The worktab looks light, and he'll need a Beyer boost to beat these.  MOON NISTLE won his maiden over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs, but that race was for $40,000 maiden claimers, and these look a bit tougher.  He raced evenly in his first start against winners at Saratoga, and it's nice to see the recent five-furlong breeze on the tab.  SHERIFF BERTI nipped $15,000 maiden claimers over Turfway's polytrack, and simply looks overmatched.

Selections:  1.  Call Shot  2.  Liston  3.  Harken Up

The Play:  Call Shot to Win at 2-1 odds or greater

***

Race 6
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. GOLDEN BIRDIE (Touch Gold - Bird Harbor, by Boston Harbor)
TRAINER:  D. Wayne Lukas
JOCKEY: Terry Thompson
DATE FOALED:   February 27, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 route winner (15-6-3-1, $1,679,907, 1-4 at two, 4-12 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   80-646 (12%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:  Sprint winner (6-2-2-0, $67,065, 1-1 at two, all races in main track sprints, cost $85,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  This is first starter
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Female family of multiple Grade 1 route winner BIRD TOWN (12-4-6-1, $871,251, 1-4 at two, 13-8 in main track routes); BIRDSTONE (multiple Grade 1 route winner, 9-5-0-0, $1,575,600, 2-3 at two, 4-7 in main track routes)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  2-10 (20%, $3.23 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners making synthetic and route debut off 31-60 day layoff in maiden special weight (1-3, 33%, $8.66 ROI) at Keeneland.

2.  SOCIAL PAGE (A.P. Indy - Private Status, by Alydar)
TRAINER:  Michael Matz
JOCKEY:  Julien Leparoux
DATE FOALED:   May 15, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  SECRET STATUS (full sister, multiple Grade 1 route winner, 19-8-3-4, $1,053,705, 1-4 at two, 7-16 in main track routes); ALUMNI HALL (full brother, multiple Grade 3 winner, 29-9-5-3, $747,756, unraced at two, 8-26 in main track routes); PRIVATE GIFT (half-sister, stakes-winner, 19-5-2-3, $212,248, 0-3 at two, 4-14 in main track routes)
AUCTION:  $700,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 winner (11-8-0-1, $2,979,815, 3-4 at two, 7-9 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   40-339 (12%) with juvenile debut runners; 7-42 (17%, $2.86 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner over polytrack, 4 older winners in routes)
NICKING INFORMATION:  A P VALENTINE (Grade 1 route winner at two, 13-3-2-2, $864,170, 2-4 at two, 2-10 in main track routes)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Stakes-winning router (12-4-3-2, $146,337, unraced at two, 4-10 in main track routes)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  7 runners, 4 winners, 4 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 7 main track route runners, 3 main track route winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  MISS BRIO (half-sister, multiple Group 1 winner in Chile); MARIA CANDELA, multiple Group 1 winner in Chile); MAR DEL NORTE (Group 1-placed in Chile);
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  Alydar has 0 debut winners as a broodmare sire in 2009
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic route maiden special weight; 2-28 (7%, $2.18 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner routing with blinkers, both winners with Lasix)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  June 22 workout matches barn's three-year-old filly THINE (finished sixth in maiden special weight on turf at Monmouth on July 8 with 58 Beyer); June 29, July 7 workouts match barn's juvenile filly CORAL CANYON (finished eighth in career debut in maiden special weight on dirt at Delaware on September 12 with 33 Beyer); June 29, July 7, July 21, July 29, August 10, August 16 workouts match barn's juvenile filly MARTITA SANGRITA (finished sixth in career debut in maiden special weight on dirt at Saratoga on August 30 with 16 Beyer; won second-out on grass); July 29 workout matches barn's three-year-old filly TELL SOME FIBS (finished third in career debut in maiden special weight on dirt at Philadelphia Park on October 4 with 47 Beyer); August 10 workout matches barn's juvenile HISTORY AHEAD (finished eighth in career debut in maiden special weight on dirt at Delaware on September 29 with 33 Beyer); September 24 workout matches barn's three-year-old STRIKEWHILEITSHOT (finished first in $35,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Delaware on October 7 with 81 Beyer); October 4 workout matches barn's four-year-old filly LOOKALIKE (86 Beyer top on turf); October 4 workout matches barn's four-year-old filly PRINCESS HAYA (97 Beyer top on turf)

3.  CAUTIONARY TALE (Yes It's True - Urmia, by Meadowlake)
TRAINER:  Kenneth McPeek
JOCKEY:  Kent Desormeaux
DATE FOALED:   April 12, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:   MY MISS STORM CAT (half-sister, stakes-winning sprinter, 7-5-0-1, $190,026, 1-2 at two, all races in main track sprints); SOUL WARRIOR (half-brother, Grade 2 route winner, 8-3-2-0, $634,720, 1-2 at two, 3-7 in main track routes)
AUCTION:   $85,000 weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $95,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 sprint winner (22-11-2-3, $1,080,700, 5-9 at two, 0-4 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   132-871 (15%) with juvenile runners
NICKING INFORMATION:  SHINING MOMENT (multiple stakes-winning sprinter at two, 10-3-1-2, $121,880, 3-7 at two, all races in main track sprints)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unraced
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  9 runners, 7 winners, 6 juvenile runners, 5 juvenile winners, 4 main track route runners, 2 main track route winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Second dam is multiple Grade 3 winner CHALDEA (27-13-5-1, $473,989)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles making synthetic and route debut in maiden special weight

4.  DITCH THE ACT (Gulch - Future Act, by Known Fact)
TRAINER:  Jeff Greenhill
JOCKEY:  Miguel Mena
DATE FOALED:   April 13, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS: IMMEDIATE REACTION (half-brother, stakes-winner on turf, 15-6-1-1, $128,530, 0-2 at two, 0-2 in main track routes); CLIFFY'S FUTURE (half-brother, stakes-winning router, 12-2-3-2, $113,901, 1-6 at two, 2-11 in main track routes)
AUCTION:   $15,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 winner (32-13-8-4, $3,095,521, 5-7 at two, 3-19 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   126-965 (13%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Grade 2-placed on turf (24-6-3-2, $220,685, 0-1 at two, 2-5 in main track routes)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  6 runners, 4 winners, 4 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 5 main track route runners, 3 mani track route winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Second dam is Group 3 turf winner GAMBERTA (France)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-4 over the past five years with second-time juveniles making route debut in synthetic maiden special weight

5.  SINFUL STATE (State City - Copewiththedevil, by Copelan)
TRAINER:  Ronald Pellegrini
JOCKEY:  Leandro Goncalves
DATE FOALED:   January 29, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $10,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton Summer, July 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Group 1 sprint winner in Dubai (17-6-0-3, $1,375,993, 1-2 at two, 1-3 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD: 2-18 (11%) with juvenile runners (first crop)  
DAM RACE RECORD:   Placed sprinting (2-0-0-1, $2,720, unraced at two, all races in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD: 6 runners, 3 winners, 1 juvenile runner, 0 juvenile winners, 4 main track route runners, 1 main track route winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  SOUTHERN SATAN (half-brother, multiple stakes-placed at two, 49-5-8-10, $77,360, 0-4 at two, 0-12 in main track routes); SECRET HALO (half-brother, stakes-winner in India)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-1 over the past five years with second-out juveniles in synthetic route maiden special weights

6.  ABSINTHE MINDED (Quiet American - Rockford Peach, by Great Above)
TRAINER:  D. Wayne Lukas
JOCKEY:  Rajiv Maragh
DATE FOALED:   April 12, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  CHOCTAW CHARLIE (half-brother, stakes-placed, 45-12-14-6, $220,085, 1-3 at two, 7-19 in main track routes)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner (12-4-3-1, $754,650, 0-1 at two, 4-9 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   18-311 (6%) with juvenile debut runners; 2-36 (6%, $1.98 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (both older winners, one on synthetic)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Winner (73-9-10-8, $252,094, 0-1 at two, 1-10 in main track routes, cost $1,200 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD: 3 runners, 3 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners, 2 main track route runners, 2 main track route winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  EL ORDENADOR (half-brother, multiple stakes-winner in Puerto Rico (40-16-12-6, $443,977, 1-7 at two, 15-30 in main track routes)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  1-16 (6%, $1.96 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (older winner)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-4 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic route maiden special weight; 2-36 (6%, $0.70 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner, both winners with Lasix)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  September 26, October 3 workouts match barn's juvenile NORTHERN GIANT (49 Beyer top on dirt)

7.  THUNDERING HEAT (Thunder Gulch - Feel the Heat, by Unusual Heat)
TRAINER:  Tevis McCauley
JOCKEY:  Manfredi Guzman
DATE FOALED:   March 16, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Florida
AUCTION:   $50,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:  Multiple Grade 1 route winner (16-9-2-2, $2,915,086, 2-6 at two, 8-13 in main track routes, 0-1 in wet)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   113-856 (13%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:  Sprint winner (15-1-4-5, $109,780, 0-2 at two, 0-1 in main track routes)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:   This is first starter
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  THERMAL ABLASION (full sister, multiple stakes-winner, 47-12-11-8, $454,247, unraced at two, 2-9 in main track routes); TUCKED AWAY (full sister, Grade 2 winner, 29-5-7-5, $582,956, 0-2 at two, 2-7 in main track routes); ADD HEAT (multiple stakes-placed, 34-3-5-5, $309,210, 0-3 at two, 1-12 in main track routes)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-7 over the past five years with juvenile runners adding Lasix for the first time

8.   BEAUTIFUL SONG (Unbridled's Song - She's a Beauty, by Storm Cat)
TRAINER:  George Arnold II
JOCKEY:  Javier Castellano
DATE FOALED:   May 1, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $470,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 route winner (12-5-4-0, $1,311,800, 2-3 at two, 3-8 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   121-628 (19%) with juvenile runners
NICKING INFORMATION:  BUDDHA (Grade 1 route winner, 4-3-0-0, $489,600, 0-1 at two, 2-2 in main track routes); MAGNIFICENT SONG (Grade 1 turf winner, 13-5-2-1, $445,732, 1-3 at two, 1-2 in main track routes); HALF OURS (Grade 2 sprint winner, 7-5-1-0, $319,680, 2-2 at two, 1-3 in main track routes); NOONMARK (Grade 3 sprint winner, 19-4-5-3, $354,090, 1-2 at two, 0-2 in main track routes)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Placed on turf at two in Ireland (3-0-0-1, $1,772, all races on turf at two, cost $1,200,000 as weanling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  2 runners, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner, 0 main track route runners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  AKIBA (half-brother, stakes-winning router, 17-3-1-2, $75,903, 2-3 at two, 2-10 in main track routes); LUCAYAN PRINCE (half-brother, Group 3 turf winner at two in England, 38-6-8-8, $400,457, 1-2 at two, 0-2 in main track routes); COMIC STRIP (half-brother, multiple Grade 3 winner, 23-10-6-3, $967,474, 2-5 at two, 4-9 in main track routes); SILVER COMIC (half-sister, Grade 2 turf winner, 9-4-1-0, $216,935, unraced at two, unraced in main track routes)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-2 (50%, $2.10 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs, and going from turf to synthetic in maiden special weight route)

9.  FAVORITEAUNTCHRIS (Action This Day - Societe Royale, by Milford)
TRAINER:  Gene Clabes
JOCKEY:  Dean Mernagh
DATE FOALED:   January 29, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  BANKER'S DELIGHT (half-brother, stakes-placed in Hong Kong, 20-3-1-2, unraced at two); ROYALE (half-sister, stakes-winner on turf in Ireland, 11-2-2-2, $27,614, 0-1 at two); STARVINSKY (half-brother, stakes-winner on turf, 24-4-2-4, $171,276, 0-2 at two, 0-1 in main track routes)
AUCTION:   $14,000 RNA weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $3,500 RNA yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner at two (9-2-1-0, $822,484, 2-3 at two, 2-8 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   14-137 (10%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unracede
DAM PRODUCE RECORD: 11 runners, 9 winners, 8 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 5 main track route runners, 0 main track route winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  DOUBLE FORM (half-brother, multiple Group 1 winner on turf in Europe); GALKA (half-sister, Group 3-placed on turf in England at two); SCIMITARRA (half-sister, stakes-winner on turf in England); SMAOINEAMH (half-sister, multiple stakes-winner on turf in Ireland)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-2 over the past five years with juvenile runners in synthetic route maiden special weights

10.  IT'SMYBURTDAY (Stormy Atlantic - Talega, by Devil's Bag)
TRAINER:  Eoin Harty
JOCKEY:  Jamie Theriot
DATE FOALED:   March 25, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  EXTRA BEND (half-brother, stakes-winner, 22-5-4-5, $209,076, 2-7 at two, 3-8 in main track routes); ILLYBILLY (half-sister, stakes-winning sprinter, 21-5-2-3, $116,997, unraced at two, 0-2 in main track routes)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple stakes-winning sprinter (15-6-2-1, $148,126, 0-1 at two, unraced in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:    171-1133 (15%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Placed routing (6-0-0-2, $15,150, 0-4 at two, 0-4 in main track routes, cost $180,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  11 runners, 9 winners, 7 juvenile runners, 4 juvenile winners, 7 main track route runners, 6 main track route wniners)
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  MALEVIC (half-brother, Group 1 winner on turf in Italy); ZAUBARR (half-brother, stakes-winner in Belgium); VAN ALLEN (half-brother, stakes-placed, 34-7-6-8, $94,106, unraced at two, 4-12 in main track routes)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-1 over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs while going turf to synthetic

11.  FUGITIVE ANGEL (Alphabet Soup - Screening, by Unbridled)
TRAINER:  H. Graham Motion
JOCKEY:  Jeremy Rose
DATE FOALED:   January 14, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Pennsylvania
SIRE RACE RECORD:  Grade 1 route winner (24-10-3-6, $2,990,270, unraced at two, 8-17 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   56-520 (11%) with juvenile runners
NICKING INFORMATION:  ALPHA SAPHIRE (stakes-winner, 14-4-2-1, $314,032, 1-3 at two, 2-2 in main track routes); SHOW ME YOUR GLORY (multiple stakes-winner, 27-6-6-2, $262,885, unraced at two, 1-9 in main track routes
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unraced
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  This is first starter
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  DEAL MAKING (three-quarter brother, stakes-winner on turf, 19-3-1-2, $140,605, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track routes); SMART BID (half-brother, Grade 3-placed on turf, 6-2-1-2, $108,913, 1-3 at two, 1-2 in main track routes)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-1 over the past five years with juvenile runners going turf to synthetic while adding blinkers for the first time

12.  ORCHESTRATOR (Bernstein - Lucky Socks, by Temperence Hill)
TRAINER:  Kenneth McPeek
JOCKEY:  Robby Albarado
DATE FOALED:   March 1, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $42,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008); $75,000 juvenile (OBS Select, February 2009)
SIRE RACE RECORD:  Multiple Group 3 winner on turf in Ireland (8-4-0-0, $173,120, 2-3 at two, all races on turf)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD: 88-479 (18%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD: Sprint winner (11-2-0-1, $23,250, unraced at two, unraced in main track routes)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  2 runners, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner, 0 juvenile winners, 1 main track route runner, 0 main track route winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  BEAU'S TOWN (half-brother, Grade 2 winner, 23-13-5-1, $697,850, unraced at two, unraced in main track routes)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-3 (33%, $1.93 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners going turf to synthetic off 31-60 day layoff in maiden special weight routes (0-2 at Keeneland)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  Worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the February auction

Analysis:
GOLDEN BIRDIE makes the two sprints to a route move in the third start of the form cycle after pressing fast fractions in the slop at Saratoga.  By Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold out of a half-sister to Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone, Golden Birdie is bred to appreciate this added distance, draws a cozy inside post, and may have the best early speed of this bunch.  She's an intriguing longshot stab in a contentious race. 
ORCHESTRATOR owns the best Beyer Speed Figures, and she dug down deep to just miss at this distance on grass last time out.  She draws the far outside post, but seemingly has enough tactical speed to find a decent forward spot without losing too much ground going into the clubhouse turn.  She ran well over polytrack at Arlington in her second lifetime start, and figures a tough foe in this heat. 
BEAUTIFUL SONG earned blacktype with a third-place finish in the PG Johnson Stakes on turf at Saratoga, and the winner of that race returned to finish second in the off-the-turf Miss Grillo at Belmont Park.  The daughter of Unbridled's Song seems to be figuring this game out, and looms a strong late threat for excellent, yet underrated barn.  The Keeneland clocker report noted that Beautiful Song "went nicely in hand" for the October 4 work over the polytrack.
FUGITIVE ANGEL was extremely green in her career debut on the lawn at Belmont as she broke slowly, raced near the back of the pack, and bore out turning for home.  She did pick up a few horses late, and the addition of blinkers may help her focus better on the task at hand.  A couple of horses have already exited her debut to win including Dad's Crazy, the winner of the Miss Grillo. 
CAUTIONARY TALE finished ahead of Golden Birdie in that sloppy race at Saratoga, and the half-sister to West Virginia Derby winner Soul Warrior may improve stretching out around two turns.  Then again, there are plenty of sprint influences in this family that may make routing a bit stressful.  The recent workout at Churchill Downs should improve her stamina, and she can't be counted out.  THUNDERING HEAT adds Lasix after a dull performance at Philadelphia Park.  Her previous outing was solid, but she'll need a Beyer boost over an unfamiliar track to pull off the upset.  ABSINTHE MINDED is by a stout stamina influence, but her recent workouts fail to excite.  FAVORITEAUNTCHRIS has yet to showcase a big move, and needs a move forward.  SINFUL STATE switches from seven-pound bug rider to high-percentage Goncalves, and she wasn't embarrassed in career debut going long over Turfway's polytrack.  Still, the Beyer looks very light when compared to the main contenders.  IT'SMYBURTDAY disappointed in career debut on turf at Saratoga, but she faced a decent group that day.  There's a big gap between the last two workouts to be mindful of, however.  SOCIAL PAGE owns a beautiful pedigree, and it looks like she's been picking up the pace in her last couple of workouts.  This barn has a tendency to give their youngsters a race before they strut their best stuff.  DITCH THE ACT failed to threaten in her sprint debut.

Selections:  1.  Golden Birdie  2.  Orchestrator  3.  Fugitive Angel

The Play:  Golden Birdie to Win at 8-1 odds or greater

***

Race 9
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Darley Alcibiades Stakes (Grade 1)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $500,000

Analysis:
TIDAL POOL broke a half-length slow in her most recent start at Saratoga, but was still sent up to engage in a race-long duel through some fast fractions.  Despite battling head-and-head for most of the way, she still edged clear in the final furlong.  There is a lot of class in this pedigree, and that gives some hope that she'll successfully stretch her speed around two turns.  She may end up as the pacesetter after breaking from a good inside post. 
AMEN HALLELUJAH earned a big number sprinting over Arlington's polytrack, but the inside seemed like the place to be that afternoon, and Amen Hallelujah scraped the fence throughout before bursting through a big opening on the inside at the quarter pole.  She was privately purchased by the powerful IEAH syndicate following that race, and the dam won four routes in her career. 
BEAUTICIAN looks like the filly to beat after chasing the wickedly fast Hot Dixie Chick in a pair of graded stakes races at Saratoga.  She will be attempting some new things here as it will be her first start around two turns, and first race over a synthetic surface, so demand a good price before taking the plunge. 
SHE BE WILD, an undefeated filly shipping in from Chicago for high-percentage trainer Wayne Catalano, won the one-turn Arlington-Washington Lassie in very fast time (almost a second faster than the colts ran the Futurity at one mile earlier in the afternoon).  She Be Wild has good tactical speed, and may work out a nice trip behind the early leaders. 
NEGLIGEE, another recent private acquisition, won her maiden in a $62,500 maiden claimer at Woodbine, and then gave the good New York-bred juvenile filly Fanny Freud all she could handle in the Ontario Debutante.  A couple of fillies returned from that race to win stakes races, but Negligee looked a bit tired changing back to her wrong lead in the waning strides.  SASSY IMAGE took the worst of it from the post position draw, and she finished well behind Beautician in the Spinaway.  DECELERATOR tired badly in her last two races, and the Grade 3 Debutante winner needs a big turnaround from her recent form.  ZILVA rallied powerfully to win her maiden on grass.  The runner-up of that race, Orchestrator, is entered in today's sixth race.  You may want to see how that one does before finishing your assessment of Zilva.  SCREEN LEGEND drifted out during the stretch drive of the Lassie, and must make up six lengths on She Be Wild.  KID KATE has done nothing wrong in her career, and will go out for one of the brightest young trainers in the business.  The Beyers are a bit light, but this filly has some talent, and looks like an interesting price contender.  BLACKWELL improved with the addition of Lasix, but will take a big step up in class.  QUICK BREEZE rallied nicely to win her maiden at Arlington Park, and is bred to run all day.

Selections:  1.  Tidal Pool  2.  Amen Hallelujah  3.  Beautician

The Play:  Tidal Pool to Win at 6-1 odds or greater

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):