10/06/2007 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/7

EmailWelcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will add to the Keeneland Spring and Spa Baby profits.

Yesterday's results:
Race 1 - Ma Rainey finished fifth
Race 2 - Devereux finished fourth
Race 4 - King's Silver Son finished second
Race 8 - The Roundhouse finished sixth

Due to ongoing computer problems, more detailed analysis will not be available until next week

Sunday, October 7, 2007
Race 4
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
Purse $50,000

Analysis: BURGENLAND KID comes out of a race that produced three next-out winners, and he was pinned down inside for the majority of the running. He often breaks a beat slowly, but has the agility to find a good forward position, and he shows a quick half-mile workout over the surface.
HONOURABLE FLAG earned a big Beyer over the Turfway polytrack, and he seems comfortable rating from just off the pace. A repeat of that last effort puts him squarely in the hunt for vastly underrated barn (28% YTD). MACHO AGAIN finished ahead of next-out maiden graduate Devereux (a disappointment here yesterday) in his career debut, and the $150,000 juvenile purchase showed good speed that day. He draws a tough outside post, but may end up pressing the pace while in the clear. He should be fit off the recent five furlong workouts.
NEVER FASTER was used up on the pace in his career debut, but may be more focused with the addition of blinkers. He may opt for rating tactics in this spot, and Mr. Lukas won with a big-priced baby here yesterday. ST. JOE didn't break well in his debut, and then he rushed up to set honest fractions. He ran into a runaway winner that day, but adds Lasix (often a potent move for second-time juvenile maiden starters), and he is bred to be quick. The switch to Bejarano can be construed as positive, and he shouldn't be ignored. ON WITH IT made a favorable impression breezing at the Fasig-Tipton February sale, but draws a tough inside post, and was a gate scratch at Saratoga.

1. Burgenland Kid
2. Honourable Flag
3. Macho Again

The play: Burgenland Kid to win at 7-2 odds or more

Race 7
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Woodford Reserve Bourbon Stakes
Purse $150,000

Analysis: NOWNOWNOW encountered all sorts of traffic trouble in his turf and stakes debut at Saratoga, and still blew away the competition once clear. A maiden no longer, the nicely-bred colt seems very comfortable at this distance, and should be charging hard in the stretch.
YOUR ROUND was no match for probable Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf favorite Prussian at Woodbine, but he didn't break very favorably that day, and still was making up ground in the stretch. He made a drastic improvement from a Beyer perspective that day, and seems like a juvenile on the move. ADRIANO boasts one of the most powerful 'nicks' in the business (A.P. Indy - Mr. Prospector), hails from a strong turf barn, and was a solid maiden winner at Saratoga. GIO PONTI rallied from off a moderate pace to win debut at Belmont, and the normally-conservative Christophe Clement shows confidence by stretching his charge out in this stakes race. SPICE HOUSE makes turf debut here, but the undefeated colt has won over conventional dirt and polytrack, and we've seen synthetic form translate to the grass. He may try to clear the field in the early stages from the far outside post.

1. Nownownow
2. Your Round
3. Adriano

The play: Nownownow - Your Round exacta; Nownownow-Adriano exacta

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 7-0-2 (+$3.00)