10/05/2007 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/6

EmailWelcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will add to the Keeneland Spring and Spa Baby profits.

Yesterday's results:
Race 1 - Nistle's Crunch finished second
Race 6 - Yogi'ssplashofgold scratched; second choice Syriana's Song finished third
Race 9 - Irish Smoke finished tenth

More detailed analysis will return for tomorrow's races.

Friday, October 5, 2007
Race 1
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis: MA RAINEY got an education in her career debut at Saratoga. After breaking a beat slowly, she ended up racing in behind horses on the backstretch before finishing evenly behind a well-meant debut winner. She should save valuable ground in this two-turn test after breaking from the inside post, and may work out a ground-saving, pace-tracking trip. Trainer Al Stall Jr. had a maiden winner here yesterday.
COZY MESA earned a very competitive Beyer Speed Figure in her career debut at the Spa, then disappointed greatly in her next two starts. She failed to ride a speed-favoring track to an on-the-board finish last time out, but has been freshened for this, and looms a strong pace factor in her route debut. She's the first foal out of Grade 2-placed performer Cozy Island, and shouldn't have any problem with the added distance. BANNER DAY finished ahead of the top selection at Saratoga, but she sure looked green ducking out at the start, and drifting out in the stretch. By A.P. Indy out of route stakes-winner Gold Streamer, Banner Day should relish the extra distance, and she figures to have enough bottom after a pair of sprint tries.
ASH adds Lasix for her second lifetime start, and that's often a powerful angle in maiden races. She didn't have the clearest of runs over the Ellis sod, and trainer Frank Brothers is extremely astute. The dam won the Grade 3 Florida Oaks going long.

1. Ma Rainey
2. Cozy Mesa
3. Banner Day

The play: Ma Rainey to win at 7-2 odds or more

Race 2
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Allowance (N2L)
Purse $52,000

Analysis: DEVEREUX's dam sold for $3.6M as a yearling so it was nice to see her second foal graduate in such quick fashion at Belmont. Trainer Steven Asmussen excels with young horses, and Devereux figures to be prominent when the field swings into the stretch.
GENTLEMAN JAMES was well-bet for his career debut over the Turfway polytrack, and he did not disappoint despite facing race-long pressure. He may have to rate just a bit in this spot with several speeds entered to his inside. Stakes-placed D. C. EIGHT graduated with ease at Ellis Park despite being caught up in an early speed duel, and he wasn't disgraced against winners in his two subsequent outings. He's learning to rate, and has the experience edge over his main competition. He's an intriguing value play. GEORGETOWN was thrown to the wolves in the Grade 1 Hopeful, but his stalking ability should serve him nicely in this spot. He's likely to benefit from the class drop, and expected solid pace.
TRIBAL SURGE looked good beating Georgetown at 4 1/2 furlongs at Churchill in late June, but he hasn't been able to stretch his speed at longer distances. He makes the important third start of the form cycle, and may be the speed of the speed.

1. Devereux
2. Gentleman James
3. D. C. Eight

The play: No play

Race 4
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
Purse $50,000

Analysis: KING'S SILVER SON didn't have the easiest of trips at Arlington, and although he'll have to deal with the far outside post in this two-turn test, a repeat of those polytrack numbers will put him in the hunt. He sold very, very well earlier this year, and is another from the Asmussen baby assembly line.
WEEKEND STORM is bred to be a star as the dam is a full sister to Summer Squall, and a half-sister to A.P. Indy. He made up tons of ground in his career debut at Churchill, and today's extra distance shouldn't cause him any problems. TWINBUCKTU's dam did her best running on turf, and we've seen turf form translate nicely to polytrack. It's difficult for a debut runner to succeed around two turns, but there are several stamina influences deep in his pedigree.
REAL APPEAL makes the two sprints to a route move, and showed improvement over the Presque Isle Downs synthetic surface for a vastly-underrated trainer. Expect another move forward here although he seems to be bred more for speed. DIXIE DECISION bled in his career debut, then raced greenly on grass. There is talent and pedigree here; he just has to figure the game out.

1. King's Silver Son
2. Weekend Storm
3. Twinbucktu

The play: No play

Race 8
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Lane's End Breeders' Futurity (Grade 1)
Purse $500,000

Analysis: THE ROUNDHOUSE acts like he'll appreciate two turns, but so did his half-brother Circular Quay, and that didn't really work out to expectations. Still, the son of Fusaichi Pegasus earned some solid Beyer Speed Figures against good competition in New York, and can save ground going into the first turn for the always-dangerous team of Pletcher and Velazquez.
SLEW'S TIZNOW, a full brother to the classy Slew's Tizzy, is more handy than The Roundhouse, and was an impressive gate-to-wire winner at Saratoga. He shows a bullet workout over this surface, should get the jump on the top selection, and can't be dismissed. BRIARWOOD CIRCLE ran well for second behind likely BC Juvenile Turf favorite Prussian in the Summer at Woodbine. He graduated over polytrack for Canada's top connections, and his prior route experience should really come in handy here.
WICKED STYLE got the worst of it at the post position draw, but it's hard to really knock an undefeated runner, and he may have enough speed to find a forward spot going into the first turn without losing too much ground. FIDELIO won debut over Woodbine's polytrack, then seemed a bit green when chasing stakes-bound War Pass in a Saratoga allowance. By Awesome Again, he shouldn't find the added distance too demanding. Both REFEREE, a $1.2M purchase trained by Pletcher, and TEND, a well-bred Claiborne colt, impressed in their respective debuts, and wouldn't be a surprise.

1. The Roundhouse
2. Slew's Tiznow
3. Briarwood Circle

The play: The Roundhouse to win at 5-2 or more

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 3-0-1 (+$5.00)