10/03/2008 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/5

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully add to the profits from "Spa Babies"

Saturday's results:
Race 2: Petty Things finished first
Race 3: Jehan did not finish
Race 4: Casey's On Call finished first
Race 7: Square Eddie finished first

Sunday, October 5, 2008

Race 6
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

1. Kelode (Saarland - Precious Jewell, by Fortunate Prospect)
Trainer: Bruce Jackson
- Foaled May 4, 2006 in Kentucky
- $80,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 2 route winner at two (21-5-5-1, $595,250, 2-5 at two, 5-19 in main track routes)
- sire is 1-17 (6%, $0.34 ROI) with juvenile debut runners in 2008
- dam was stakes-placed (11-4-0-2, $67,742, 0-2 at two, 2-5 in main track routes)
- dam has one runner, no winners, one juvenile runner, no main track route runners
- Fortunate Prospect is 6-56 (11%, $2.12 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (five juvenile debut winners)
- dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Jewel Princess (29-13-4-7, $1,904,059, 2-3 at two, 9-19 in main track routes)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Topaz Runner (38-8-4-5, $157,820, 1-7 at two, won debut, 4-21 in main track routes)
- trainer is 3-30 (10%, $2.13 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 1-13 (8%, $2.03 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (juvenile debut winner routing with Lasix)
- July 26, August 2, August 9 workouts matches barn's juvenile Belalang (finished ninth in career debut at Presque Isle Downs on September 28 with 7 Beyer)
- August 9 workout matches barn's three-year-old filly Lovely Reward (finished sixth in career debut at Laurel on September 26 with 44 Beyer)
- August 23 workout matches barn's three-year-old filly Mighty Craic (50 Beyer top on turf)
- August 30, September 13, September 20 workouts match barn's juvenile Jogja (finished first in career debut at Presque Isle Downs on September 25 with 65 Beyer)
- September 27 workout matches barn's four-year-old Cops Fever (79 Beyer top on turf)
- September 27 workout matches barn's juvenile Moonlite Ride (56 Beyer top)

2. Pious David (Aldeberan - Hamba, by Easy Goer)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Foaled April 21, 2006 in Kentucky
- out yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select August 2007)
- $180,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- half-brother to stakes-placed turf runner Gijima (9-1-3-1, $59,037, unraced at two, all races on turf)
-half-brother to Grade 1 route winner Monba (6-3-0-0, $577,534, 2-3 at two, 2-5 in main track routes)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner (25-8-12-3, $1,739,186, 1-1 at two in England, 1-4 in main track routes)
- sire is 8-75 (11%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a sprint winner (5-2-2-0, $47,500, 0-1 at two, all races in main track sprints)
- dam has seven runners, four winners, two juvenile runners, one juvenile winner, at least three main track route runners, two main track route winners
- dam a half-sister to Grade 2 juvenile route winner Silent Account (37-10-5-2, $480,475, 3-7 at two, 2-13 in main track routes)
- dam a half-sister to Group 3 (England) juvenile winner Hadif (34-8-7-4, $398,423, 3-6 at two in England, 0-1 in main track routes)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 1 juvenile route winner Secret Hello (22-6-3-6, $784,259, 3-4 at two, 4-17 in main track routes)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winning router By Your Leave (9-4-2-0, $84,185, unraced at two, 4-4 in main track routes)
- trainer is 4-15 (27%, $1.83 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles following a trainer switch

3. Kerwin's Way (Skip Away - Kernitre, by Vettori)
Trainer: John Glenney
- Foaled April 2, 2006 in Kentucky
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (38-18-10-6, $9,616,360, 1-6 at two, 18-36 in main track routes)
- sire is 69-600 (12%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a winner (47-6-5-8, $198,398, 2-3 at two, 0-6 in main track routes)
- dam has two runners, no winners, one juvenile runner, one main track route runner
- female family of multiple Group 2 (France) turf winner Athyka
- trainer is 0-9 over the past five years with juveniles going sprint to route
- trainer is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles going sprint to route at Keeneland

4. Dutch Striker (Van Nistelrooy - Thinkinaboutyou, by Wild Again)
Trainer: Kellyn Gorder
- Foaled March 15, 2006 in Kentucky
- $17,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- $50,000 juvenile (Fasig-Tipton Spring May 2008)
-half-brother to multiple stakes-placed Doc Davis (22-4-4-2, $52,644, 3-6 at two, unraced in main track routes)
- half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Lost Again (79-14-16-14, $153,3423, 2-4 at two, 5-24 in main track routes)
- half-brother to juvenile stakes-winning router Wildaboutyouagain (8-2-1-2, $44,000, 2-6 at two, 2-4 in main track routes)
- sire was a Group 2 winner on turf at two in Ireland (6-3-1-1, $229,980, all races at two, won debut, 0-1 in main track routes)
- sire is 5-64 (8%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-46 (4%, $0.70 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008
- dam was unplaced (2-0-0-0, $1,163, all races at two, 0-1 in main track routes, cost $46,000 as a yearling)
- dam has seven runners, six winners, five juvenile runners, three juvenile winners, four main track route runners, three main track route winners
- Wild Again is 2-69 (3%, $0.53 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (both juvenile debut winners)
- dam a full sister to multiple stakes-placed Malagot (50-7-9-9, $138,514, 1-5 at two, 7-38 in main track routes
- trainer is 0-6 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-7 with all debut runners in 2008
- worked one furlong in 10.60 prior to the May sale

5. Speed Limit (Storm Cat - Unbridled Breeze, by Unbridled)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Foaled February 1, 2006 in Kentucky
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner at two (8-4-3-0, $570,610, 3-6 at two, 1-4 in main track routes)
- sire is 274-1161 (24%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unraced
- this is dam's first runner
- dam a full sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Banshee Breeze (18-10-5-2, $2,784,798, 0-1 at two, 8-15 in main track routes)
- dam a full sister to stakes-winner Unbridled Wind (12-4-1-3, $135,018, 0-3 at two, 3-6 in main track routes)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed turf runner Charm (19-3-2-4, $110,831, 0-3 at two, unraced in main track routes)
- trainer is 53-184 (29%, $1.62 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going sprint to route
- trainer is 1-10 (10%, $0.68 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going sprint to route at Keeneland

6. Soldero (Seeking the Gold - Lush Soldier, by Lost Soldier)
Trainer: Clark Hanna
- Foaled April 8, 2006 in Kentucky
- $75,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- $50,000 juvenile (OBS Spring April 2008)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (15-8-6-0, $2,307,000, 1-1 at two, 3-10 in main track routes)
- sire is 121-541 (22%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a Grade 3 winner on turf at two (21-4-4-4, $438,416, 2-7 at two, unraced in main track routes)
- dam has two runners, one winner, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners, no main track route runners
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Wild Lush (19-3-4-1, $53,904, unraced at two, 0-2 in main track routes)
- trainer is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix
- worked one furlong in 10.60 prior to the April sale

7. Stormalory (Storm Cat - Miss Halory, by Mr. Prospector)
Trainer: William Mott
- Foaled March 1, 2006 in Kentucky
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner at two (8-4-3-0, $570,610, 3-6 at two, 1-4 in main track routes)
- sire is 274-1161 (24%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a route winner (9-1-1-2, $48,520, 0-2 at two, 1-5 in main track routes)
- this is dam's first runner
- Storm Cat - Mr. Prospector 'nick' has produced juvenile stakes-winner (Ireland) Shimah (3-2-1-0, all starts at two on grass)
- Storm Cat - Mr. Prospector 'nick' has produced Group 3 turf winner (France) Laa Rayb (18-6-3-1, $379,896, 1-1 in main track routes)
- Storm Cat - Mr. Prospector 'nick' has produced multiple juvenile Group 1 turf winner One Cool Cat (10-5-0-1, $564,798, 4-5 at two, all races on turf)
- Storm Cat - Mr. Prospector 'nick' has produced juvenile Group 1 turf winner Denebola (10-2-2-2, $338,658, 2-4 at two, all races on turf)
- Storm Cat - Mr. Prospector 'nick' has produced multiple Grade 1 winner Finder's Fee (27-7-4-5, $708,128, 3-8 at two, 2-9 in main track routes)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Sprucory (20-5-1-2, $116,550, 1-2 at two, 3-4 in main track routes)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Speak Halory (22-4-2-2, $64,105, 2-4 at two, 1-7 in main track routes)
- dam a three-quarter sister to Grade 3 winner Prory (79-13-15-14, $794,593, 0-2 at two, 11-51 in main track routes)
- dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Key Lory (21-10-2-1, $393,941, unraced at two, 5-14 in main track routes)
- dam a three-quarter sister to Grade 2 route winner Halory Hunter (10-3-2-3, $713,119, 2-5 at two, 3-9 in main track routes)
-dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 route winner Brushed Halory (15-6-3-1, $496,860, 1-3 at two, 6-13 in main track routes)
- dam a half-sister to juvenile Group 2 winner (Ireland) Van Nistelrooy (6-3-2-1, $229,980, all races at two, 0-1 in main track routes)
- trainer is 20-92 (22%, $1.94 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going sprint to route
- trainer is 1-7 (14%, $0.89 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going sprint to route at Keeneland

8. Affirmed On Appeal (Successful Appeal - Worry Not, by Concern)
Trainer: Carla Morgan
- Foaled February 24, 2006 in Virginia
- $135,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select August 2007)
- withdrawn juvenile (Keeneland April 2008)
- half-brother to multiple Grade 3 winner Sir Greeley (27-9-8-0, $594,251, unraced at two, 4-9 in main track routes)
- sire was a multiple Grade 2 winner (22-8-2-4, $654,681, 3-6 at two, 1-9 in main track routes)
- sire is 81-378 (21%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a route winner (6-1-0-0, $27,550, unraced at two, 1-5 in main track routes, cost $77,000 as a short yearling)
- dam has three runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners, one main track route runner, one main track route winner
- dam a three-quarter sister to multiple stakes-winner Brush Over (9-6-1-0, $120,631, 0-1 at two, 3-4 in main track routes)
- dam a three-quarter sister to multiple Grade 3-placed sprinter Brushed On (39-11-8-7, $424,513, 2-9 at two, 2-3 in main track routes)
- dam a three-quarter sister to stakes-placed sprinter Singular Broad (7-1-2-1, $26,160, 1-4 at two, 1-5 in main track routes)
- trainer is 1-9 (11%, $0.76 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles

9. California Strike (Smart Strike - Flashy, by Wild Again)
Trainer: Michael Matz
- Foaled February 12, 2006 in Kentucky
- $700,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (8-6-1-0, $337,376, unraced at two, 4-5 in main track routes)
- sire is 110-637 (17%) with juvenile runners
-dam was a sprint winner (11-2-1-2, $70,929, unraced at two, 0-4 in main track routes
- this is dam's first runner
- Smart Strike - Wild Again 'nick' has produced Grade 2 turf winner Strike Softly (12-6-3-1, $683,309, 1-2 at two, 0-2 in main track routes)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3-placed Kings Lynn (24-3-7-3, $140,714, 1-8 at two, 1-8 in main track routes)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Scoop (15-5-0-2, $337,170, 2-4 at two, 4-12 in main track routes)
- trainer is 12-44 (27%, $3.14 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles at Keeneland

10. Luv Gov (Ten Most Wanted - City of Silver, by Nepal)
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
- Foaled February 12, 2006 in Kentucky
- first-crop sire was a Grade 1 route winner (13-5-3-1, $1,718,460, 0-1 at two, all races in main track routes)
- sire is 1-77 (1%) with juvenile runners in 2008
- dam was a sprint winner (5-1-0-0, $17,030, unraced at two, all races sprinting on the main track)
- dam has two runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners, one main track route runner, one main track route winner
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Silver Launch (16-3-2-3, $156,370, 1-6 at two, 1-8 in main track routes)
-trainer is 10-152 (7%, $0.94 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles adding Lasix for the first time
- trainer is 2-16 (13%, $1.18 ROI) over the past five years wtih juveniles adding Lasix for the first time at Keeneland

11. Tribal Bead (Indian Charlie - Turquoise Bead, by Cryptoclearance)
Trainer: William Mott
- Foaled February 7, 2006 in Kentucky
- $140,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- $400,000 juvenile (OBS Select February 2008)
- out juvenile (Keeneland April 2008)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (5-4-0-1, $616,120, 1-1 at two, 2-3 in main track routes)
- sire is 91-519 (18%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a winner (24-7-3-3, $198,990, 1-3 at two, 6-16 in main track routes)
- this is dam's first runner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Indian Country (11-5-1-4, $219,837, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track routes)
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter No Bull Baby (9-3-2-0, $210,188, 2-6 at two, 0-2 in main track routes)
- trainer is 31-174 (18%, $1.47 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 2-10 (20%, $1.16 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles at Keeneland
- worked one furlong in 10.60, and another quarter-mile in 21.80 prior to the February sale

12. Il Terrazzo (Giant's Causeway - Two Item Limit, by Twining)
Trainer: Rebecca Maker
- Foaled April 9, 2006 in Kentucky
- $130,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a multiple Group 1 winner on turf (13-9-4-0, $3,078,889, 3-3 at two, 0-1 in main track routes)
- sire is 41-256 (16%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a multiple Grade 2 winner (28-7-3-5, $1,060,585, 4-9 at two, 5-20 in main track routes, cost $30,000 as a weanling, $20,000 as a yearling, and $50,000 as a juvenile)
- dam has two runners, no winners, one juvenile runner, one main track route runner
- trainer is 7-32 (22%, $1.33 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles at Keeneland

Analysis: Going to take a shot with firster DUTCH STRIKER, a half-brother to several blacktype winners. The son of Van Nistelrooy sold for $50,000 earlier this year, has been working at Keeneland, and should offer value in a field where only one of the experienced horses cracked the trifecta in their most recent races.
IL TERRAZZO did complete the exacta in his career debut at Arlington, but the polytrack seemed to favor stalkers and closers that day, and Il Terrazzo came from off the pace. He's beautifully-bred, receives a strong rider switch from an apprentice to Rene Douglas, and should come running late, but he is marooned in a tough outside post.
TRIBAL BEAT raced evenly in his debut for Bill Mott, but the $400,000 juvenile purchase is stuck out wide once again. Mott has done much better second-out than with his firsters in 2008, and his charge should move forward here.
KERWIN'S WAY returns to reality after being thrown to the wolves in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. He showed improved speed last time out, but failed against maiden claimers earlier in his career. LUV GOV adds Lasix for Mr. Lukas, and the recent bullet workouts indicate he may improve with the medication. The sire has done miserably with his first crop, but he was a long-winded sort, and his progeny should improve as they get more distance to work with. Luv Gov can move forward stretching out around two turns. SPEED LIMIT goes two sprints to a route for Todd Pletcher, and he should relish the additional distance being out of a full sister to Banshee Breeze. STORMALORY has some stamina on the bottom of his pedigree, and can sit close to the pace under Kent Desormeaux. He faced some promising juveniles at Saratoga. SOLDERO had some trouble at the start at Philly Park, and adds Lasix here. He needs a Beyer boost to contend for top honors. KELODE's recent workouts look interesting, and it may not be the worst idea to try a firster in this heat. PIOUS DAVID switches to Pletcher after faltering badly at Saratoga. He can show the way early from his inside post. CALIFORNIA STRIKE was beaten 31+ lengths over a speed-favoring track at Delaware, but is well-bred, and Michael Matz generally moves them forward second-out.

Selections:
1. Dutch Striker
2. Il Terrazzo
3. Tribal Bead

The Play:
Dutch Striker to Win and Place at 10-1 or more

***

Race 7
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Woodford Reserve Bourbon Stakes (Grade 3) (Turf)
2-year-olds
Purse $200,000

Analysis:
DRIVING SNOW may have been hindered by the very heavy going in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes in Ireland last time out, and could benefit from firmer turf in his North American debut. The gray colt was privately-purchased by Silverton Hill following the Futurity, and the addition of Lasix may put him over the top.
BITTEL ROAD looms the one to beat for Todd Pletcher. The winner of the With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga, Bittel Road has good tactical speed, and should be in the thick of things when they swing into the stretch.
JACK SPRATT is still a maiden, and he draws a tough outside post position, but he made a little bit of a wide run last time out at Turfway, and just missed on turf in his career debut. He's a longshot play for the exotics.
APPALACHIAN TRAIL passed tired horses in the Cradle at River Downs, but has never been off the board in his short career. A repeat of his turf Beyer from two back (76) would put him in the hunt. HAR D BOY enjoyed soft turf in his maiden score at Arlington, but may not get similar conditions here. He should appreciate the additional half-furlong. GIANT OAK only beat three foes in an entry-level, off-the-turf optional claimer, but he did it the right way, and he was a nice debut winner on grass two months ago. He wouldn't be a surprise under Prado. GHOST FIVE seeks his third straight, but these will be the strongest foes he's faced to date. VAQUERO tried turf for the first time after graduating on Turfway's polytrack. NINTH CLIENT has speed, and should be a pace presence at the very least. DYNAMIC FORCE goes out for underrated, excellent connections, but still must prove his mettle on turf. JUST LIKE BISCUIT has already run ten times this year, and it's possible we've seen his best. ALBIN looks to be in too steep.

Selections:
1. Driving Snow
2. Bittel Road
3. Jack Spratt

The Play:
Driving Snow to Win and Place at 8-1 or more

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):
7-3-3 (+ $40.20)