10/02/2008 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/4

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully add to the profits from "Spa Babies"

Friday's results:
Race 5: Sir Ben finished tenth
Race 9: Bon Jovi Girl finished fourth
Race 10: River's Honor finished eleventh

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Race 2
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
PETTY THINGS obliterated maidens over Arlington's Polytrack surface two back, then dueled for the lead through quick fractions while racing on a deep and tiring rail in the Ontario Debutante at Woodbine. She shows a pair of bullet works leading up to this start, attracts Rafael Bejarano, and has enough speed to clear these early.
HUG IT OUT earned a solid Beyer Speed Figure defeating maiden claimers at Arlington, and she may sit a nice stalking trip while outside of traffic. It looks like she's found a cozy spot for excellent connections.
WINDMILL HILL moved way forward with the addition of Lasix, and her good tactical speed should serve her nicely.
CHAMP LAILA won by open lengths over Turfway's polytrack, but may need a Beyer boost to contend against winners. KENTUCKY PEACHES showed off new rating tactics in her most recent start at Ellis Park, but her recent Beyers are light. TALKINONTHERUN has good speed, but the stamina hasn't been there against winners. RUNAWAY HEART drops in class after failing to contend in a pair of stakes races. CHAMPAGNE LAUNCH defeated three next-out winners at Ellis Park, but bombed in the Bassinet at River Downs.

Selections:
1. Petty Things
2. Hug It Out
3. Windmill Hill

The Play:
Petty Things - Hug It Out Exacta;
Petty Things - Windmill Hill Exacta

***

Race 3
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. Alexandrina (Golden Missile - American Czarina, by Quiet American)
Trainer: Thomas Proctor
- Foaled February 25, 2006 in Kentucky
- $7,000 juvenile (Adena Springs Spring March 2008)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (25-7-7-4, $2,194,510, 0-1 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints)
- sire is 43-425 (10%) with juvenile runners
- dam was stakes-placed on turf (15-3-3-2, $147,485, 0-3 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints, cost $100,000 as a yearling)
- this is dam's first runner
- dam a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Joopy Doopy (34-4-4-3, $201,230, 2-6 at two, 4-30 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 6-46 (13%, $1.02 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 0-4 over the past five years with second-time juveniles at Keeneland

2. Little Nancy (Gulch - Time to Decide, by Wavering Monarch)
Trainer: John Good
- Foaled February 5, 2006 in Kentucky
- $40,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner (32-13-8-4, $3,095,521, 5-7 at two, 10-13 in main track sprints)
- sire is 120-908 (13%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a stakes-winner (18-3-2-4, $171,161, 1-5 at two, 2-10 in main track sprints, cost $54,168 as a juvenile)
- dam has two runners, no winners, one juvenile runner, one main track sprint runner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Simply Runaway (15-4-1-1, $100,610, unraced at two, 3-8 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 1-11 (9%, $0.56 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles at Keeneland

3. Jehan (Forest Wildcat - Classy Date, by Saint Ballado)
Trainer: Dale Romans
- Foaled April 2, 2006 in Kentucky
- $150,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select August 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (23-9-2-1, $479,862, 2-5 at two, all races in main track sprints)
- sire is 153-892 (17%) with juvenile runners
- dam was placed sprinting (5-0-1-0, $9,160, unraced at two, 0-3 in main track sprints, cost $410,000 as a yearling)
- dam has three runners, two winners, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners, three main track sprint runners, no main track sprint winners
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning juvenile Deputy Warlock (16-3-0-3, $298,074, 3-4 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 0-11 over the past five years with juveniles adding blinkers for the first time

4. Queen Ernestine (Forest Camp - Stanford Reunion, by General Meeting)
Trainer: Helen Pitts
- Foaled April 17, 2006 in Florida
- $77,000 short yearling (OBS Winter January 2007)
- withdrawn yearling (OBS August 2007)
- out juvenile (Keeneland April 2008)
- sire was a Grade 2 sprint winner at two (11-4-2-0, $339,984, 2-4 at two, 3-8 in main track sprints)
- sire is 49-322 (15%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unplaced (11-0-0-0, $8,320, unraced at two, 0-2 in main track sprints)
- this is dam's first runner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Social Director (7-4-1-0, $105,393, unraced at two, all races in main track sprints)
- trainer is 6-53 (11%, $1.45 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles

5. Honchis'n Ponchis (City Zip - Kelli's Song, by Dixieland Band)
Trainer: Dale Romans
- Foaled February 14, 2006 in Kentucky
- $35,000 short yearling (Keeneland January 2007)
- $50,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select October 2007)
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner at two (23-9-5-4, $818,225, 5-11 at two, 9-16 in main track sprints)
- sire is 20-119 (17%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 6-37 (16%, $1.68 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (five juvenile debut winners, one at Keeneland, one out of a Dixieland Band mare)
- dam was a sprint winner (15-2-3-2, $100,265, unraced at two, 2-10 in main track sprints, cost $50,000 as a yearling)
- this is dam's first runner
- Dixieland Band is 13-100 (13%, $1.54 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (six juvenile debut winners)
- City Zip - Dixieland Band 'nick' has produced juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Dana My Love (6-6-0-0, $84,789 in Puerto Rico, all races sprinting on the main track at two)
- City Zip - Dixieland Band 'nick' has produced multiple stakes-placed sprinter Jazz Nation (8-2-4-0, $170,393, 1-3 at two, won debut, 2-6 in main track sprints)
- second dam is Grade 2 winner Make Haste
- trainer is 28-209 (13%, $1.46 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 4-23 (17%, $2.05 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 4-50 (8%, $0.94 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (all winners with Lasix, three juvenile debut winners)

6. Reta's True Love (Not For Love - Shahrazad Sky, by Sky Classic)
Trainer: Reta Underwood
- Foaled April 21, 2006 in Kentucky
- $3,500 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was stakes-placed (29-6-7-5, $178,870, 1-4 at two, 3-14 in main track sprints)
- sire is 107-659 (16%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a winner on turf (6-1-0-0, $14,530, 0-1 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints)
- dam has four runners, two winners, four juvenile runners, one juvenile winner, three main track sprint runners, no main track sprint winners
-dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 turf winner Awad (70-14-10-11, $3,270,131, 1-10 at two, 0-3 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3 turf winner Rough Opening (66-11-10-3, $240,935, 0-1 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Digitalize (9-3-3-1, $117,125, unraced at two, unraced in main track sprints)
- trainer is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile runners

7. Dobra (Smoke Glacken - Roused, by Saint Ballado)
Trainer: Carl Nafzger
- Foaled April 25, 2006 in Kentucky
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner at two (14-10-2-1, $759,560, 4-6 at two, 9-10 in main track sprints)
- sire is 42-251 (17%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 7-59 (12%, $1.21 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (five juvenile debut winners)
- dam was a route winner at two (6-1-0-0, $28,475, 1-2 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints)
- dam has one runner, no winners, no juvenile runners, one main track sprint runner
- Saint Ballado is 14-88 (16%, $2.53 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (nine juvenile debut winners, one at Keeneland)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Oatsee (21-2-4-5, $106,945, 0-6 at two, 2-15 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 6-64 (9%, $3.36 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 1-14 (7%, $0.83 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 0-2 with all debut runners in 2008

8. Guarda (Empire Maker - Storm Alert, by Storm Cat)
Trainer: George Arnold II
- Foaled January 31, 2006 in Kentucky
- half-sister to stakes-placed turf runner Indy Trouble (17-3-2-0, $83,968, 0-5 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints)
- full sister to stakes-placed router Temper Temper (8-1-3-0, $56,158, 0-2 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-4-3-1, $1,985,800, 1-2 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
- sire is 14-73 (19%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a stakes-winner (7-3-1-0, $91,126, 0-2 at two, 1-4 in main track sprints, cost $250,000 as a yearling)
- dam has four runners, three winners, three juvenile runners, no juvenile winners, four main track sprint runners, two main track sprint winners
- dam a half-sister to turf stakes-winner High Speed Access (19-4-4-2, $157,115, 0-4 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 9-52 (17%, $2.93 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 1-2 (50%, $3.20 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles at Keeneland

9. Cats (Storm Cat - Blissful, by Mr. Prospector)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
-Foaled April 11, 2006 in Kentucky
- $875,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select August 2007)
- out yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- full sister to Group 3-placed (Dubai) router Where's That Tiger (6-1-2-0, $100,310, 1-3 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
- full sister to multiple Group 2-placed (England) juvenile turfer One Great Cat (9-2-1-3, $86,721, 1-4 at two)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner at two (8-4-3-0, $570,610, 3-6 at two, 3-4 in main track sprints)
- sire is 274-1161 (24%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unplaced (3-0-0-0, $3,240, all races sprinting on the main track at two, cost $1,000,000 as a weanling)
- dam has four runners, two winners, two juvenile runners, two juvenile winners
- Storm Cat - Mr. Prospector 'nick' has produced juvenile stakes-winner (Ireland) Shimah (3-2-1-0, all starts at two on grass)
- Storm Cat - Mr. Prospector 'nick' has produced Group 3 turf winner (France) Laa Rayb (18-6-3-1, $379,896, unraced in main track sprints)
- Storm Cat - Mr. Prospector 'nick' has produced multiple juvenile Group 1 turf winner One Cool Cat (10-5-0-1, $564,798, 4-5 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
- Storm Cat - Mr. Prospector 'nick' has produced juvenile Group 1 turf winner Denebola (10-2-2-2, $338,658, 2-4 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
- Storm Cat - Mr. Prospector 'nick' has produced multiple Grade 1 winner Finder's Fee (27-7-4-5, $708,128, 3-8 at two, 5-17 in main track sprints)
- dam a full sister to Grade 1 route winner Fusaichi Pegasus (9-6-2-0, $1,994,400, 0-1 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 10-150 (7%, $0.97 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles adding Lasix for the first time)
- trainer is 2-14 (14%, $1.34 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles adding Lasix for the first time at Keeneland)

10. Cha Ching Jackpot (Posse - Prevailing, by Summer Squall)
Trainer: Ronald Kahles
- Foaled March 15, 2006 in Kentucky
- $22,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton October 2007)
- sire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (18-7-2-2, $662,841, 2-7 at two, 7-17 in main track sprints)
- sire is 46-230 (20%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a route winner (14-1-1-3, $34,554, 0-2 at two, 0-3 in main track sprints)
- dam has five runners, three winners, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners, five main track sprint runners, one main track sprint winner
-trainer is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles going route to sprint

11. Aster (Lion Heart - Dancing Meg, by Sky Classic)
Trainer: Fred Seitz
-Foaled January 10, 2006 in Kentucky
- $32,000 RNA weanling (Keeneland November 2006)
- $15,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- $25,000 RNA juvenile (OBS Spring April 2008)
- withdrawn juvenile (OBS Open June 2008)
- first-crop sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner (10-5-3-0, $1,390,800, 3-3 at two, 2-2 in main track sprints)
- sire is 8-47 (17%, $3.20 ROI) with juvenile debut runners in 2008 (one at Keeneland)
- dam was multiple stakes-placed on turf (15-1-1-3, $47,325, 0-2 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints)
- this is dam's first runner
- Sky Classic is 5-55 (9%, $1.36 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (all older debut winners)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3 route winner Devil's Honor (44-10-6-8, $810,165, 4-9 at two, 4-9 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 1-17 (6%, $1.27 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 0-8 with all debut runners in 2008
- worked one furlong in 21.80 prior to the April sale

12. Cat Onthe Town (Forest Wildcat - On the Town, by Pleasant Colony)
Trainer: Robert Holthus
- Foaled February 23, 2006 in Kentucky
- $57,000 RNA weanling (Keeneland November 2006)
- $50,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- $425,000 juvenile (OBS Open March 2008)
- out juvenile (Keeneland April 2008)
- sire was a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (23-9-2-1, $479,862, 2-5 at two, all races in main track sprints)
- sire is 153-892 (17%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unplaced (1-0-0-0, $1,080, unraced at two, raced on turf)
- dam has two runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners, two main track sprint runners, one main track sprint winner
- second dam is Grade 1 turf winner Laugh and Be Merry
- trainer is 2-7 (29%, $4.43 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 61-180 day layoffs)
- trainer is 1-3 (33%, $2.80 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 61-180 day layoffs at Keeneland)
- worked a furlong in 10.60 prior to the March sale

Analysis:
Perhaps the last chance for JEHAN, who has burned so much money in her short career. Shee does exit a quick off-the-turf heat at Saratoga, however, and the addition of blinkers may allow her to focus better on the task at hand. She'll need a more aggressive ride from Robby Albarado if she is to wire this bunch, but the recent bullet workouts (presumably in blinkers) indicate that Jehan deserves one more opportunity to graduate.
Stablemate HONCHIS'N PONCHIS is by an excellent debut sire, and there is some quality in the female family. She should offer some value despite being ridden by top jock Rafael Bejarano.
LITTLE NANCY just missed going two turns in her career debut, and should be legged up for this elongated sprint try.
CHA CHING JACKPOT just missed sprinting two back at Ellis, then may have found two turns a bit out of her element last time out. She's an exotics possibility at big odds. CAT ONTHETOWN sold for big bucks earlier this year, but has bombed at short odds thus far. She can improve for wily trainer, but is marooned outside. Beautifully-bred CATS is by the great Storm Cat out of a full sister to Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. She adds Lasix after tiring badly at Saratoga, and can improve here. GUARDA is by Empire Maker, a stallion whose progeny usually improve with racing experience and distance. Thus, she should improve off her debut against the promising Persistently at Saratoga. ALEXANDRINA had a tough trip in her debut at Turfway, but must overcome a difficult inside draw. RETA'S TRUE LOVE adds Lasix off two dull efforts, but probably wants more ground. DOBRA and ASTER are firsters that may need a race.

Selections:
1. Jehan
2. Honchis'n Ponchis
3. Little Nancy

The Play:
Jehan - Honchis'n Ponchis Exacta
Jehan - Little Nancy Exacta

***

Race 4
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-olds
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
CASEY'S ON CALL earned a solid Beyer winning his debut for high-percentage connections at Arlington, and has been given some time to recover from that effort. He has some speed, and should be forwardly-placed while racing clear of traffic.
BEETHOVEN took on Reynaldothewizard (beaten favorite in Saratoga Special, entered in today's Lane's End Futurity) in his debut at Churchill, then relished additional distance coupled with the switch to Polytrack at Turfway. He'll likely benefit from a hot pace up front.
TROY G. may have raced on the best part of the track when winning his maiden in popular fashion at Saratoga, but shows a bullet work over this surface, and wouldn't be a surprise for Kenny McPeek.
CROWN THE CHIEF looked good winning his debut at Ellis Park for underrated, excellent barn, but he may have to come from off the pace here. HONGKONG SUPERSTAR showed professionalism by rallying from midpack to win his debut, and the $260,000 yearling figures to be running strongly late. MESA GOLD needed a drop to maiden claimers to claim his diploma, but he finished only three lengths behind Crown the Chief in his career debut. ELEGANT CAD was a Polytrack winner in England. A speedy type, he may face faster fractions than he's used to. The addition of Lasix and the stretchout to two turns did the trick for Bill Mott's TAMBORIM. He's a late-running possibility in a very tough field. CLASSY WONDER shook loose in his front-running debut score at Turfway, but faces more pressure here. GENERAL QUARTERS showed speed in the Bashford Manor, and can be a pace presence off the layoff. PROMISE ME MERLOT must show more. IVAN IVAN looks in over his head.

Selections:
1. Casey's On Call
2. Beethoven
3. Troy G.

The Play:
Casey's On Call to Win at 5-2 odds or higher

***

Race 7
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Lanes End Breeders' Futurity (Grade 1)
2-year-olds
Purse $500,000

Analysis:
Trainer John Best ships three of his babies in from England, but SQUARE EDDIE may be his most fancied charge. The son of Smart Strike returned from sore shins to win his maiden on grass at Salisbury, then placed in a Group 3 on Polytrack despite drifting out in the stretch. Square Eddie was purchased out of his most recent race by prominent owner J. Paul Reddam, and Rafael Bejarano gets the call for this colt's North American debut. The addition of Lasix may propel Square Eddie to the next level.
Stablemate FLASHMANS PAPERS won a listed stakes race at Ascot at 100-1 odds earlier this year, then was a good fourth TWO DAYS LATER in the Group 2 Norfolk. He hasn't moved forward off those races in his subsequent starts, but should save valuable ground, and may benefit from a solid pace up front.
NOTONTHESAMEPAGE earned a huge 104 Beyer Speed Figure sprinting at Churchill Downs, but then came down with a temperature, and he hasn't won since. He has high early speed, and should clear the field early, but he's suspect at this distance.
MAJESTIC BLUE was one of Kiaran McLaughlin's flying juveniles this summer at the Spa, and he earned a nice Beyer first-out going short. He has ability, but must stretch out three furlongs in only his second start. DEPOSER has a tendency to pull hard in the early stages of his races, and the European invader may be a pace factor in this spot. ADVICE lugged out in the lane in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and now draws poorly for his two-turn debut. ZION should be a square price for top connections, and he improved stretching out to a mile in the Arlington-Washington. REYNALDOTHEWIZARD defeated a several next-out winners in the faster division of maiden special weights at Churchill, then had trouble when the beaten favorite in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. This colt has some ability, and wouldn't be a surprise. TERRAIN is the only multi-winner in the field, and he had a very difficult journey in the Arlington-Washington Futurity. He earned a big number two back, and should be closer to the pace here. PIONEEROF THE NILE had no problems with this distance on grass, and turf form does well over this surface. He's nicely-bred, and should be running hard late. HIS GREATNESS got antsy in the paddock before winning his debut, then raced wide in the Arlington-Washington Futurity.

Selections:
1. Square Eddie
2. Flashmans Papers
3. Notonthesamepage

The Play:
Square Eddie to Win and Place at 5-1 or more

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):
3-0-0 (- $8.00)