10/23/2008 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/25

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully add to the profits from "Spa Babies."

Friday's result:
Race 4: Parade Clown finished eleventh
Race 7: Pray for Action finished second

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Race 1:
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
AMANWELLA was thrown to the wolves in the Grade 1 Alcibiades, but returns to Earth in this maiden special weight. The $525,000 yearling by Fusaichi Pegasus has faced some good juvenile fillies this season, and may have finally found her spot to reach the winner's circle.
BETTY'S CHAMP is bred both sides for speed, and is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Hurricane Bernie. She may show zip here.
RUN WITH THE BIRD has a solid pedigree - the dam is kin to graded winners High Cotton and Symphony Sid - and she made a nice move to finish second in her career debut over the Arlington polytrack. Expect her to be close by when the field straightens away into the stretch.
ABUELA is a half to stakes-winner Brushed Bayou by Giant's Causeway, and that turf pedigree may play well over the polytrack. The dam was a Grade 3 winner, and Abuela shows solid workouts leading up to her debut. WALLOON is a half to Grade 3 winner Pleasant Hill, and she comes out of a very fast maiden special weight at Turfway Park. She shows a recent bullet work over this surface, and has some price potential. MUSIC MAGIC is a half to three blacktype earners including juvenile stakes-winner Moving Van (209K in earnings), and Grade 2-placed juvenile router Waltz On By. Michael Stidham does well with firsters, and this filly has been in training since late July. MINDY SUE is by Pleasantly Perfect, and may want a bit more ground. BOLD WILL is by Bold Executive (17% juvenile debut winners), and she's a half to multiple stakes-winner Are You Serious (524K). BELLE STARR's workmate didn't run very well here the other day. YONAKEE shows some quick works, but is stuck on the rail. I'M FROM DIXIE has lots of pedigree as a half to multiple stakes-winner Half Heaven (435K), stakes-winner Doll Baby (juvenile debut winner), stakes-winner Love Cove, and Grade 2 router Sweet Vendetta. JONMILLION's sire is 0-27 with juvenile debut runners in his first crop.

Selections:
1. Amanwella
2. Betty's Champ
3. Run With the Band

The Bet:
Amanwella to Win at 2-1 odds or greater

***

Race 4
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
MORE KISSES, a $140,000 RNA as a yearling, is out of a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Peeping Tom, and shows a bullet workout over the Keeneland surface.
FOXY BAILEY is a half to multiple stakes-winning juvenile Taos, and stakes-winning router Park Avenue Prince. She just missed last time out in her initial try over polytrack, and has enough speed to find a good spot down the backstretch.
PRINCESA MARIN didn't have an easy trip in her debut at Turfway, and can improve with a bullet workout on display.
ODAKOTA cost $250,000 as a yearling, and shows solid local workouts for Todd Pletcher. STACIE'S SMILE has a stout pedigree, and may want a bit more ground. ROSE A NATIVE's recent workouts look solid, and she should offer lots of value for low-profile, high-percentage connections. SKY BLUE SKY and MOLLY PEACHES both exit the slower division of maiden special weights at Turfway Park. The former's dam was a multiple stakes-winner, but Sky Blue Sky has burned money in both starts, and must avoid a wide trip from her far outside post. Molly Peaches may need to show better early speed in what looks to be a paceless affair. LACIE SLEW's dam was a multiple stakes-winner, and the daughter of Mineshaft adds Lasix for her second start. That's often a key angle in maiden races, and she exits a race that has already produced three next-out winners. BLENDED BEAUTY is a half to multiple Grade 1 winner Splendid Blended and multiple Grade 3 route winner Richly Blended. She didn't do much in her debut, but Bill Mott has much better stats with second-time starters than with debut runners. DEVIL BY DESIGN is a half to juvenile stakes-winning turf runner Kolo, and shows quick works over the track. ALEXABELLA is a half to French Group 3 turf winner Arcadia's Angle, and the dam was a stakes-winner as well.

Selections:
1. More Kisses
2. Foxy Bailey
3. Princesa Marin

The Play:
More Kisses to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or greater

***

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):
43-7-16 (- $9.20)