10/24/2007 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/25

EmailWelcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will add to the Keeneland Spring and Spa Baby profits.

Wednesday’s results:
Race 3: Cape Hatteras finished first
Race 5: Lookalike finished second

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Race 3
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

1. Concertos’ Thunder (Concerto – Miss Thunder, by Thunder Gulch)
Trainer: Gregory Fox
- Foaled February 24, 2005 in Florida
- sire was a Grade 2 route winner (21-10-4-2, $1,308,118, 3-6 at two)
- sire is 17-109 (16%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 4-21 (19%, $2.90 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was unplaced (1-0-0-0, $64, unraced at two, cost $30,000 as a weanling)
- this is dam’s only runner
- Thunder Gulch is 2-29 (7%, $0.99 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 0-7 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-4 with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 1-8 (12%, $2.23 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- September 1 workout matches barn’s three-year-old filly Rose’Wine (finished first in career debut in 30K maiden claimer at Turfway Park on October 4 with 41 Beyer)
- September 22, September 29 workouts match barn’s juvenile filly Picardie (finished third in career debut on October 20 with 52 Beyer)
- October 5 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Victory by Blue (finished eighth in career debut on October 12 with 55 Beyer)

2. Seminary Ridge (Dixie Union – Under Fire, by Gulch)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
- Foaled April 1, 2005 in Kentucky
- $150,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- $300,000 juvenile (Fasig-Tipton February Select March 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner (12-7-3-0, $1,233,190, 4-6 at two, won debut)
- sire is 12-129 (9%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 4-45 (9%, $1.48 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was unraced (cost $120,000 as a yearling)
- this is dam’s only runner
- Gulch is 6-57 (11%, $1.30 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- dam a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Incinerate (62-14-7-10, $554,088, 1-11 at two), multiple sprint stakes-winner Pagofire (9-4-0-0, $95,190, 2-2 at two, won debut), and Grade 3 winner Fan the Flame (51-16-5-9, $388,623, 0-4 at two)
- trainer is 11-114 (10%, $0.88 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 2-26 (8%, $0.65 ROI) with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 1-35 (3%, $0.19 ROI) with all debut runners this year
- worked one furlong in 10.60 prior to the March sale
- July 17, July 24, July 30, August 6, August 30 works match barn’s juvenile Cadet Gold (finished fourth in career debut on October 13 with 72 Beyer)
- August 23 workout matches barn’s juvenile Great Shot (finished third in career debut at Turfway Park on September 29 with 54 Beyer)
- September 29 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Cape Cod Bay (finished seventh in maiden special weight on October 14 with 54 Beyer)

3. Apprize (Aptitude – Bejat, by Mr. Prospector)
Trainer: John Ward Jr.
- Foaled March 4, 2005 in Kentucky
- $45,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005)
- $120,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-brother to stakes-winning sprinter Crimson Road (23-6-4-2, $223,976, unraced at two), and Grade 3 turf winner Glick (40-14-7-3, $594,791, unraced at two)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (15-5-4-2, $1,965,410, 0-2 at two)
- sire is 3-94 (3%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 1-62 (2%, $0.00 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was unraced (cost $625,000 as a yearling)
- dam has six runners, five winners, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners, three juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- Mr. Prospector is 8-77 (10%, $1.00 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Golden Highlights (23-4-5-6, $65,212), Grade 3 winner Sulemeif (10-3-3-2, $96,554), multiple stakes-winner Bare Minimum (28-5-8-2, $208,594), and Grade 1 juvenile winner One of a Klein (5-2-0-1, $267,865, all races at two, won debut)
- trainer is 3-36 (8%, $0.49 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 1-9 (11%, $0.69 ROI) with debuting Keeneland Babies
- August 21 workout matches barn’s three-year-old filly Causeway Lady (61 Beyer)
- October 14 workout matches barn’s three-year-old Grand Alibi (finished fifth in ‘n2x’ on turf on October 20 with 85 Beyer)
- Keeneland Clocker Comment for October 6 workout - “To Dream About finished well, a shade better than Apprize” (To Dream About is an unraced three-year-old filly)

4. Money Manager (Distorted Humor – Value Oriented, by Mr. Greeley)
Trainer: Shannon Ritter
- Foaled March 8, 2005 in Kentucky
- $450,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005)
- out yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- sire was a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (23-8-5-3, $769,964, unraced at two)
- sire is 36-189 (19%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 10-73 (14%, $1.61 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was unplaced (3-0-0-0, $1,020, unraced at two, cost $55,000 as a yearling, and $60,000 as a juvenile)
- this is dam’s only runner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Trunk (24-2-1-6, $123,825, 1-12 at two, won debut), and stakes-winner Ali’lbito’reality (62-7-5-6, $231,421, 1-6 at two)
- trainer is 2-10 (20%, $6.10 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 1-12 (8%, $1.47 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- September 9 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Jack’s Redhead (finished fifth in 15K maiden claimer at Hawthorne on October 8 with 12 Beyer)
- October 2 workout matches barn’s juvenile Go Swiftly (finished second in maiden special weight on October 17 with 71 Beyer)
- October 9 workout matches barn’s four-year-old Forest Blue (finished first in N2L allowance on October 21 with 94 Beyer)
- Keeneland Clocker Comment for October 9 workout - “Forest Blue in company with money manager, and was the better one in the set.”
- Keeneland Clocker Comment for October 15 workout - “Forest Blue continues to train well, was the best of Money Manager under mild urging.”

5. Talk of a Cat (Tale of the Cat – Good Vibes, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Foaled February 25, 2005 in Kentucky
- $300,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005)
- $625,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select August 2006)
- out yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- sire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (9-5-1-2, $360,900, unraced at two)
- sire is 46-242 (19%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 14-87 (16%, $1.95 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was a turf winner (4-1-0-0, $21,480, unraced at two, cost $200,000 as a weanling)
- dam has one runner, one winner, one juvenile runner, one juvenile winner, one juvenile debut winner
- Unbridled’s Song is 5-32 (16%, $1.92 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- female family of British Group 3 turf winner Cliveden, Grade 3 winner Assert Oneself (27-5-6-7, $261,791, unraced at two), etc.
- trainer is 96-435 (23%, $1.61 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 12-37 (32%, $2.15 ROI) with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 22-144 (15%, $1.10 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- Keeneland Clocker Comment for October 17 workout - “in company with Calzone, was under restraint at the wire” (Calzone is an unraced juvenile)

6. Najrain (Najran – Dancingintherain, by Future Storm)
Trainer: Nicholas Zito
- Foaled March 5, 2005 in Kentucky
- first-crop sire was a multiple Grade 3 winner (15-7-2-1, $483,448, 0-1 at two)
- sire is 5-53 (9%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a sprint winner (24-4-6-1, $107,608, 0-3 at two)
- this is dam’s only runner
- dam a full sister to Grade 2 winner Shadow Caster (47-8-6-10, $477,653, 3-11 at two)
- trainer is 39-137 (28%, $2.31 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 3-13 (23%, $2.89 ROI) with second-time Keeneland Babies

7. Mad Flatter (Flatter – Miss Pangea, by Honor Grades)
Trainer: Jeffrey Thornbury
- Foaled February 13, 2005 in Florida
- withdrawn short yearling (Fasig-Tipton Winter February 2006)
- $29,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton October 2006)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 2-placed router (6-4-0-1, $148,815, unraced at two)
- sire is 4-29 (14%, $3.34 ROI) with juvenile debut runners
- dam was a route winner (7-3-1-0, $48,550, unraced at two)
- dam has two runners, no winners, no juvenile runners
- Honor Grades is 3-19 (16%, $0.91 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 0-16 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-3 with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 2-20 (10%, $0.59 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- September 29 workout matches barn’s four-year-old filly Indian Breeze (finished eighth in Franklin County on turf with 78 Beyer)
- Keeneland Clocker Comment for October 5 - “good workout from the gate, and Graham had plenty of horse at the finish”
- Keeneland Clocker Comment for October 12 - “second nice work, was a little better than Seaspeak at the wire” (Seaspeak is an unraced juvenile)
- Keeneland Clocker Comment for October 19 - “in company with Tam Tam, both were in hand at the wire.” (Tam Tam is an unraced juvenile filly)

8. Cape Romain (Victory Gallop – Essen of Roy, by Roy)
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
- Foaled January 31, 2005 in Kentucky
- $5,000 RNA weanling (Keeneland November 2005)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (17-9-5-1, $3,505,895, 3-5 at two)
- sire is 16-150 (11%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 5-55 (9%, $1.88 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was unraced (cost $22,000 as a yearling)
- dam has two runners, two winners, one juvenile runner, one juvenile winner
- Roy is 2-19 (11%, $0.82 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile Tomorrows Banquet (31-3-6-10, $212,883, 1-6 at two, won debut)
- trainer is 0-20 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-6 with debuting Keeneland Babies
- several workouts match up with Carl Nafzger’s juvenile filly Elusive Sparkle (finished seventh in career debut on October 20 with 58 Beyer)

9. Not for Gold (Not For Love – Glacken’s Grace, by Smoke Glacken)
Trainer: Albert Stall Jr.
- Foaled April 8, 2005 in Pennsylvania
- $75,000 weanling (Fasig-Tipton December 2005)
- $200,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Summer July 2006)
- $550,000 juvenile (Fasig-Tipton February Select March 2007)
- out juvenile (Keeneland April 2007)
- sire was stakes-placed (29-6-7-5, $178,870, 1-4 at two)
- sire is 27-187 (14%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 7-53 (13%, $1.65 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was unraced
- this is dam’s only runner
- Smoke Glacken is 2-6 (33%, $3.30 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Po (11-2-3-0, $73,805, 1-3 at two, won debut), juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Hansel’s Annie Gal (8-1-1-1, $30,740, 1-3 at two, won debut)
- trainer is 8-77 (10%, $1.42 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-2 with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 6-25 (24%, $2.30 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- worked one furlong in 10.60, and another quarter-mile in 21.60 prior to the March sale

10. Racecar Rhapsody (Tale of the Cat – Reflect the Music, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
- Foaled February 15, 2005 in Kentucky
- $390,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005)
- $400,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select August 2006)
- out yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- entered juvenile (Fasig-Tipton February Select March 2007)
- $240,000 RNA juvenile (Keeneland April 2007)
- sire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (9-5-1-2, $360,900, unraced at two)
- sire is 134-701 (19%) with juvenile runners
-dam was a stakes-winner (20-5-5-2, $219,708, unraced at two)
- dam has two runners, no winners, two juvenile runners
- dam a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Costume Girl (11-1-4-3, $39,786, 0-4 at two)
- trainer is 23-110 (21%, $1.82 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 2-16 (13%, $1.33 ROI) with second-time Keeneland Babies
- worked one furlong in ten seconds prior to the April sale

11. Peruvian Hero (Peruvian – Heroiss, by Sea Hero)
Trainer: Francois Parisel
- Foaled February 7, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire was a Grade 3 winner at two (14-6-1-1, $318,123, 3-6 at two)
- sire is 3-28 (11%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 1-2 (50%, $11.20 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was a winner (22-6-1-2, $70,700, 0-2 at two, cost $10,000 as a yearling)
- dam has two runners, two winners, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- Sea Hero is 3-16 (19%, $8.55 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- second dam is juvenile stakes-placed Perceptive Heiress (17-3-4-4, $77,562, 0-1 at two)
- trainer is 0-1 over the past five years (*assistant to suspended Patrick Biancone)
- Keeneland Clocker Comment for October 5 workout - “is improving, in company with Nightnightnight” (juvenile filly finished eighth in maiden special weight on October 14 with 34 Beyer)
- Keeneland Clocker Comment for October 13 workout - “in company with Cambridge Blue from the gate, was a little better than the filly for the half and continued out well, Leparoux up” (Cambridge Blue is a juvenile trained by Bobby Frankel. He finished fifth in his career debut on October 19 with a 41 Beyer)
- Keeneland Clocker Comment for October 22 workout - “Officer Frank broke behind Peruvian Hero, easily caught up to finish on even terms.” Officer Frank won his career debut for trainer Michael Reavis at Arlington on September 16 with an 86 Beyer.

12. Nothnshortofgenius (Aptitude – Bosanquet, by Pleasant Colony)
Trainer: Phillip Sims
- Foaled April 10, 2005 in Kentucky
- $25,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005)
- $20,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (15-5-4-2, $1,965,410, 0-2 at two)
- sire is 3-94 (3%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 1-62 (2%, $0.00 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was unraced
- dam has five runners, three winners, three juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- Pleasant Colony is 4-59 (7%, $1.86 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winning router Rising Moon (5-3-0-0, $88,550, 0-1 at two)
- trainer is 2-30 (20%, $1.87 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-11 with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 1-10 (10%, $0.50 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- September 21 workout matches barn’s three-year-old filly Kissy Missy (finished fourth in 7.5K ‘n2L’ claimer at Turfway Park on September 27 with 42 Beyer)

Analysis: TALK OF A CAT shows some very quick works for top debut barn. He sold extremely well last year at Saratoga, and is by an excellent debut sire.
RACECAR RHAPSODY had a miserable trip in his debut when he missed the break, and was forced to rally outside. He earned a big Beyer that day, and should be tough if able to get away cleanly this time. MAD FLATTER has caught the eye of the Keeneland Clockers, and he should provide value for low-profile connections.
APPRIZE boasts the potent A.P. Indy - Mr. Prospector cross, but sire Aptitude has struggled with debut runners. SEMINARY RIDGE sold for $300,000 earlier in the year, but Dallas Stewart has much-better numbers with second-time starters than with firsters. MONEY MANAGER, an expensive weanling purchase by Distorted Humor, boasts a win-early pedigree, and has been stepping it up of late during his morning trials.

Selections:
1. Talk of a Cat
2. Racecar Rhapsody
3. Mad Flatter

The Play: Talk of a Cat to win at 7-2 odds or more

Race 5
1 1/8 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

1. Hard Strike (Smart Strike – Cent Nouvelles, by Storm Bird)
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
- Foaled February 19, 2005 in Florida
- $300,000 yearling (OBS Open August 2006)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (8-6-1-0, $337,376, unraced at two)
- sire is 97-547 (18%) with juvenile runners
- dam was placed on turf in England (3-0-0-1, $856, 0-1 at two)
- dam has six runners, four winners, five juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- dam a half-sister to Grade 2 juvenile Special Happening (11-4-1-1, $429,280, 3-6 at two, won debut)
- dam a full sister to stakes-placed Red Soul (14-3-4-1, $87,568, 1-3 at two)
- trainer is 23-110 (21%, $1.82 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 2-16 (13%, $1.33 ROI) with second-time Keeneland Babies

2. Cosmic (El Prado – Heavenly Prize, by Seeking the Gold)
Trainer: Claude McGaughey III
- Foaled April 20, 2005 in Kentucky
- half-brother to Grade 2 route winner Pure Prize (17-5-5-2, $475,459, 1-3 at two), and multiple Grade 1 turf winner Good Reward (26-5-2-7, $1,087,687, 1-4 at two)
- sire was a Group 1 winner on turf at two in Ireland (9-4-1-0, $236,987, 4-6 at two)
- sire is 135-860 (16%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner (18-9-6-3, $1,825,940, 2-3 at two)
- dam has six runners, three winners, five juvenile runners, two juvenile winners
- dam a full sister to Grade 3-placed router Hunting Hard (12-3-3-1, $103,140, unraced at two), Grade 1 juvenile winner Oh What a Windfall (18-4-2-2, $363,623, 3-7 at two), and Grade 1-placed juvenile router Dancinginmydreams (3-1-1-0, $64,600, 1-3 at two)
- trainer is 0-4 over the past five years with juveniles adding blinkers
- trainer is 0-1 over the past five years with Keeneland Babies adding blinkers

3. Nistle’s Crunch (Van Nistelrooy – Sam Eye Am, by Island Whirl)
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
- Foaled March 15, 2005 in New Jersey
- $55,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- first-crop sire was a Group 2 winner on turf in Ireland at two (6-3-1-1, $229,980, all races at two)
- sire is 17-106 (16%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a stakes-winner (23-4-3-3, $127,695, 1-5 at two)
- this is dam’s first runner
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile turfer Sammy Van Ammy (4-1-2-1, $70,550, all races at two)
- trainer is 23-110 (21%, $1.82 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 2-16 (13%, $1.33 ROI) with second-time Keeneland Babies

4. Dynamalt (Dynaformer – Extry, by Broad Brush)
Trainer: William Mott
- Foaled March 2, 2005 in Kentucky
- $1,050,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- sire was a multiple Grade 2 winner (30-7-5-2, $671,207, 1-5 at two)
- sire is 125-1029 (12%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unraced
- dam has three runners, one winner, three juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to British Group 1 winner Dowsing, and Grade 1 turf winner Fire the Groom
- trainer is 29-162 (18%, $1.41 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 2-9 (22%, $1.29 ROI) with second-time Keeneland Babies

5. Mythical Hunter (Johannesburg – Jade Cat, by Jade Hunter)
Trainer: Phillip Sims
- Foaled March 7, 2005 in Kentucky
- half-brother to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Jade Eyed (4-2-1-0, $128,255, all races at two), and juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Touriga (4-0-2-0, $26,798, all races at two)
- out weanling (Keeneland November 2005)
- out yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- sire was a multiple Grade/Group 1 winner at two (10-7-1-0, $1,014,585, 7-7 at two)
- sire is 29-196 (15%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a sprint stakes-winner at two (11-2-1-2, $61,522, 1-4 at two)
- dam has seven runners, three winners, five juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- dam a half-sister to multiple juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Gents Big Cat (47-2-4-8, $41,584, 1-7 at two)
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Gents Big Cat (47-2-4-8, $41,584, 1-7 at two)
- trainer is 8-81 (10%, $1.63 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners
- trainer is 2-22 (9%, $0.75 ROI) over the past five years with Keeneland Babies

6. Twinbucktu (Our Emblem – Countessa, by Lord At War)
Trainer: Philip Oliver
- Foaled February 7, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire was multiple Grade 1-placed (27-5-5-5, $366,013, 1-3 at two)
- sire is 42-417 (10%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a turf winner (22-2-3-4, $82,500, unraced at two, cost $140,000 as a juvenile)
- this is dam’s only runner
- female family of Grade 2 turf winner Yestday’s Kisses (23-5-3-4, $199,614, 1-5 at two)
- trainer is 1-5 (20%, $9.56 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 0-2 with second-time Keeneland Babies

7. Perfect Pal (Officer – Shannahans Magic, by Green Dancer)
Trainer: Miroslav Knava
- Foaled March 11, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner at two (9-6-1-1, $804,090, 5-8 at two)
- sire is 44-205 (21%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a route winner (5-1-0-1, $21,080, unraced at two)
- this is dam’s only runner
- second dam is Group 2 winner Bloomingly (in Argentina)
- trainer is 3-41 (7%, $0.93 ROI) over the past five years

8. Master Plan (Malibu Moon – So Sure, by Heavenly Plain)
Trainer: Jim Corrigan
- Foaled March 18, 2005 in Kentucky
- half-brother to stakes-winner Recognition (20-5-7-3, $177,570, unraced at two)
- sire was a sprint winner at two (2-1-1-0, $33,840, all races at two)
- sire is 65-330 (20%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unplaced (1-0-0-0, $0, unraced at two)
- dam has two runners, one winner, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile Nur Jahan (9-1-5-1, $50,596), Grade 3-placed juvenile Double Smooth (65-8-7-11, $157,192, 1-10 at two), stakes-winner Mutarjja, and multiple stakes-winner Interactive (22-7-4-3, $313,050, unraced at two)
- trainer is 2-12 (17%, $4.60 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 0-1 with second-time Keeneland Babies

9. Lemonade Kid (Lemon Drop Kid – Amourette, by El Gran Senor)
Trainer: Anthony Mitchell
- Foaled April 19, 2005 in Illinois
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner (24-10-3-3, $3,245,370, 2-6 at two)
- sire is 7-92 (8%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 4-53 (8%, $0.84 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was a multiple stakes-winner (35-7-0-7, $248,786, 1-7 at two, cost $30,000 as a yearling)
- dam has one runner, one winner, no juvenile runners
- El Gran Senor is 3-34 (9%, $0.71 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- second dam is a multiple stakes-winner Chase the Dream (17-4-3-6, $208,118, 2-7 at two)
- trainer is 3-24 (13%, $2.19 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-1 with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 1-5 (20%, $5.48 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007

Analysis: COSMIC undoubtedly boasts a top pedigree, and he has some ability as well, but he seems to have a bit of goofball in him. He’s raced greenly in both starts, but Shug McGaughey adds blinkers to the equation, and the new eyewear may allow his charge to focus better on the task at hand. He acts like he’ll stay all day so the extra distance shouldn’t be an issue. Cosmic only finished three lengths behind Sundaysunday at Belmont, and that foe came back to be nosed for the win in the King Cugat Stakes on Belmont sod.
HARD STRIKE showed good tactical speed in his career debut, and should move forward off that effort for barn that boasts excellent numbers with second-time starters. There doesn’t seem to be much pace in this heat, and Hard Strike shouldn’t be too far away when the real running begins. NISTLE’S CRUNCH almost pulled off a 14-1 Keeneland Baby upset in his career debut, but blew a big late lead. He could be the pacesetter here, but must prove that he can get the extra sixteenth.
MYTHICAL HUNTER also has good tactical speed, and draws a much-better post position than the last time he tried two turns. He’s improving with every start, and should offer a hint of value.

Selections:
1. Cosmic
2. Hard Strike
3. Nistle’s Crunch

The play: Cosmic to win at 2-1 or more

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 38-8-20, (-$3.40)