10/23/2009 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/25

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet.  Hopefully, we'll end up with a tidy profit.

Saturday's results:
Race 1:  Reagan's Wildcat finished second
Race 5:  Lost Aptitude finished third
Race 6:  Workin for Hops finished second
Race 7:  Lonesome Street finished third

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Race 2
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Claiming ($25,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $23,000

Analysis:
Entering Saturday's card, trainer Ken McPeek had sent out six juvenile winners at the meeting, and LUCKYLEAD was a razor-sharp maiden graduate at Philadelphia Park last time out.  After pushing the pace from the get-go, he took command with three furlongs to run, and the outcome was never in doubt.  Although he was defeated as the 9-10 betting favorite in his only prior synthetic start, it must be noted that he showed speed over a Turfway Park polytrack that seemed to favor closers on September 20.  Luckylead has valuable two-turn experience, and can work out a good stalking trip while clear of traffic trouble under Robby Albarado.
PEACENIK was a gate-to-wire winner of his career debut on dirt at Calder, but he disappointed twice at short odds against starter allowance opponents over synthetic surfaces in Southern California.  Last time out, he finished behind Ranger Heartley, who returned to win a $40,000 starter allowance going two turns at Oak Tree by 12 1/4 lengths with a 77 Beyer Speed Figure.  Peacenik has the early speed to clear these going into the first turn, but his dam was a multiple stakes-placed sprinter, and Peacenik has to negotiate 1 1/16 miles this afternoon.
BAIL BABY BAIL is the lone two-time winner in the field, but it's interesting that he adds blinkers after scoring at Turfway Park.  The runner-up of that race returned to run second again in a $20,000 claimer at Hawthorne.  He switches to hot rider Julien Leparoux, and can work out a good pace-tracking, ground-saving trip.  The sire could go long, but this female family is known mostly for its prowess in sprints.
PATHOKI drops from a $200,000 stakes race into this $25,000 claiming heat, but his only win came for a $6,000 purse going short at River Downs.  There are no published workouts in the last 19 days.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE became yet another debut winner for Todd Pletcher when he scored over soft turf at Kentucky Downs, but he didn't look very strong in the stretch.  He's bred to appreciate this extra added distance.  DADDY FORTY NINE lugged in during the stretch drive of his maiden win at Arlington Park, and will need a good pace to adequately setup his late kick.  Like the top pick, BEECH RIDGE is trained by Ken McPeek.  He showed early speed in his last two races, but was contesting moderate splits, and may be outrun by the stretchout sprinters drawn to the inside.  He does drop out of a tough turf race, and should be aided by the class relief.  ALFRIE'S FRIENDS needs Beyer help.

Selections:
1.  Luckylead  2.  Peacenik  3.  Bail Baby Bail

The Play:
Luckylead - Peacenik Exacta
Luckylead - Bail Baby Bail Exacta

***

Race 7
6 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1.  SHERYL'S MELODY (More Than Ready - Gera, by Capote)
TRAINER:  Dallas Stewart
JOCKEY:  Robby Albarado
DATE FOALED:   April 12, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:  $160,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008); Out juvenile (Keeneland, April 2009)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 sprint winner (17-7-4-1, $1,026,229, 5-7 at two, 7-9 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:    114-751 (15%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Placed (9-0-0-6, $30,900, unraced at two, 0-6 in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  3 runners, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner, 0 juvenile winners, 3 main track sprint runners, 0 main track sprint winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Female family of SHE'S TOPS (Grade 2 sprint winner, 18-4-2-4, $200,880, 1-4 at two, 4-15 in main track sprints)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  2-10 (20%, $2.21 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to synthetic in maiden special weight sprints (1-5, 20%, $1.40 ROI at Keeneland)

2.  CAT MAGIC (Tale of the Cat - Royal Fair, by Deputy Minister)
TRAINER:  George Arnold II
JOCKEY:  Leandro Goncalves
DATE FOALED:   April 12, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 2 sprint winner (9-5-1-2, $360,900, unraced at two, 1-3 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   175-948 (18%) with juvenile runners
NICKING INFORMATION:  PRINCE ROONEY (stakes-winning sprinter at two, 3-2-0-0, $69,077, 2-3 at two, 2-3 in main track sprints)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Stakes-winning router (22-4-11-3, $395,370, 0-2 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints, cost $600,000 as yearling
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  3 runners, 0 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 3 main track sprint runners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  MR. VILLEMORE (half-brother, stakes-winning sprinter at two, 35-4-4-8, $82,432, 3-10 at two, 4-22 in main track sprints); MORRISTON BELLE (half-sister, multiple stakes-winner, 36-5-10-4, 2-9 at two, 1-6 in main track sprints); NATIVE REGENT (half-brother, Grade 3 winner on turf, 35-6-11-3, $543,994, 3-10 at two, 0-5 in main track sprints)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-6 (17%, $1.59 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (0-2 at Keeneland)

3.  QUEEN OF THE CREEK (Theatrical - Miasma, by Lear Fan)
TRAINER:  Thomas Proctor
JOCKEY:  Jamie Theriot
DATE FOALED:   April 27, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   $140,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 winner on turf (17-8-4-2, $2,840,500, 1-1 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   18-112 (16%) with juvenile debut runners; 3-10 (30%, $2.24 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Stakes-placed on turf (19-2-4-1, $58,534, 1-6 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  6 runners, 4 winners, 1 juvenile runner, 0 juvenile winners, 2 main track sprint runners, 1 main track sprint winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Third dam is FRIENDLY CIRCLE (Grade 3 winner at two, 24-3-2-2, $39,225)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  3-38 (8%, $0.59 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (2 juvenile debut winners)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-20 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (0-4 at Keeneland); 2-27 (7%, $1.48 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (both older winners with Lasix, 1 on synthetic)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  September 13 workout matches barn's juvenile OUR DOUGLAS (finished first in maiden special weight on turf at Arlington on September 20 with 68 Beyer); September 19 workout matches barn's five-year-old mare TARVA (80 Beyer top on synthetic); September 25 workout matches barn's juvenile filly FLOWERING MESA (finished fifth in career debut over polytrack at Keeneland in $40,000 maiden claimer on October 21 with 42 Beyer)

4.  KENNY LANE (Forestry - Vantive, by Mr. Prospector)
TRAINER:  Philip Oliver
JOCKEY:  Jesus Castanon
DATE FOALED:   April 13, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   $240,000 weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $225,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select, August 2008); Out yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  WASSEEMA (half-sister, multiple stakes-winner on turf in England, 8-3-0-2, $105,772, 0-1 at two, unraced in main track sprints); PITAMAKAN (8-3-0-1, $97,043, 0-1 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 sprint winner (11-7-1-2, $591,225, unraced at two, 4-7 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   26-181 (14%) with juvenile debut runners; 7-50 (14%, $2.07 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (4 juvenile debut winners, 1 older winner on synthetic)
NICKING INFORMATION:  DEVEREUX (multiple stakes-winning sprinter, 16-4-2-3, $219,695, 1-4 at two, 4-14 in main track sprints)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Winner on turf in France (4-1-1-1, $13,442, unraced at two, unraced in main track sprints, cost $650,000 as weanling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  3 runners, 3 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners, 1 main track sprint runner, 1 main track sprint winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  SEATTLE DAWN (half-sister, Grade 2 route winner, 19-7-5-0, $276,250, unraced at two, unraced in main track sprints); LORD CHARMER (half-brother, Group 3-placed on turf in England, 24-5-6-1, $149,208, unraced at two, unraced in main track sprints); ISLAND OF SILVER (three-quarter sister, stakes-winner on turf in England, 17-6-2-3, $92,113, 0-2 at two, unraced in main track sprints); TRUCKEE (half-brother, stakes-winner, 24-6-5-4, $221,538, unraced at two, 1-7 in main track sprints);
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  8-56 (14%, $3.00 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (4 juvenile debut winners, 1 on synthetic, 1 other older winner on synthetic)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-2 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (Keeneland, 2007)

5.  STARLITE STARBRITE (Mutakddim - Starlight Surprise, by Salutely)
TRAINER:  Thomas Amoss
JOCKEY:  Christopher Emigh
DATE FOALED:   February 16, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  SALTY SURPRISE (half-sister, stakes-placed sprinter at two, 5-1-0-2, $30,817, 1-5 at two, won debut, 1-5 in main track sprints)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Stakes-winner on turf in England (17-5-3-2, $126,174, 1-3 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   48-246 (20%) with juvenile debut runners; 5-37 (14%, $3.08 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (4 juvenile debut winners, 1 on synthetic)
DAM RACE RECORD:  Stakes-winner (51-5-7-10, $171,643, 2-8 at two, 2-23 in main track sprints, cost $1,500 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  6 runners, 5 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile debut winner, 6 main track sprint runners, 4 main track sprint winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  TRUEBREADPUDDING (half-sister, multiple stakes-winner, 26-9-3-3, $344,919, 0-4 at two, 1-4 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  1-4 (25%, $3.80 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (older winner)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  2-17 (12%, $0.57 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weight (0-2 at Keeneland); 7-23 (30%, $2.10 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (all winners with Lasix, 5 juvenile debut winners, 2 with front wraps, 1 older winner on synthetics with front wraps)

6.  LA GRAN BAILADORA (Afleet Alex - Affirmed Dancer, by Affirmed)
TRAINER:  Andrew McKeever
JOCKEY:  James Graham
DATE FOALED:   February 10, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   $90,000 RNA weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); Out yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  AFFIRMED CAT (half-sister, stakes-placed sprinter at two, 2-1-0-1, $21,333, 1-2 at two, won debut, 1-2 in main track sprints)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 winner (12-8-2-1, $2,765,800, 4-6 at two, won debut, 5-5 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:  2-40 (5%, $0.33 ROI) with juvenile debut runners in 2009 (first crop)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Stakes-winner (14-5-3-1, $211,100, unraced at two, unraced in main track sprints, cost $150,000 as weanling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  2 runners, 2 winners, 1 juvenile runner, 1 juvenile debut winner, 2 main track sprint runners, 1 main track sprint winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Second dam is WOOLLOOMOOMOO (multiple stakes-winner, 35-7-5-4, $373,234, 1-8 at two, 2-10 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  8-65 (12%, $1.24 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (4 juvenile debut winners, 1 older winner on synthetic)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (0-3 at Keeneland); 2-10 (20%, $2.08 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (both older winners on synthetic with Lasix for this owner)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  September 17 workout matches barn's juvenile filly STRICTLY (finished ninth in career debut over polytrack at Keeneland on October 11 with 38 Beyer); September 22, October 13 workouts match barn's juvenile MOUNTAIN JUSTICE (finished eighth in career debut over polytrack at Keeneland on October 22 with 40 Beyer)

7.  AREGULATIONHOTTIE (Officer - Debra C., by Deputy Minister)
TRAINER:  Eddie Kenneally
JOCKEY:  Corey Lanerie
DATE FOALED:   April 16, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   $40,000 weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $110,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner at two (9-6-1-1, $804,090, 5-8 at two, won debut, 5-5 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   22-130 (17%) with juvenile debut runners; 7-39 (18%, $2.71 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (4 juvenile debut winners, 1 on synthetic, 1 other older winner on synthetic)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Stakes-placed sprinter (11-2-2-1, $40,739, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  6 runners, 4 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 6 main track sprint runners, 4 main track sprint winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Second dam is WIND SHEAR (multiple stakes-winning sprinter, 16-5-3-3, $120,160, 1-1 at two, 5-14 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  14-132 (11%, $1.39 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (2 juvenile debut winners on synthetics, 2 other older winners on synthetic)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-28 (4%, $0.18 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weight (0-9 at Keeneland); 7-44 (16%, $1.15 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (all winners with Lasix, 6 juvenile debut winners, 1 with blinkers, 1 on synthetic)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  September 8 workout matches barn's juvenile WAR AXE (finished seventh in career debut over polytrack at Turfway on September 26 with 25 Beyer); September 30 workout matches barn's juvenile filly SILVER PATINA (49 Beyer top on dirt)

8.  PIRATE PARTY (Cat Thief - Top Mambo, by Kingmambo)
TRAINER:  Thomas Proctor
JOCKEY:  Calvin Borel
DATE FOALED:   February 7, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Florida
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 route winner (30-4-9-8, $3,951,012, 2-7 at two, 1-7 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   16-148 (11%) with juvenile debut runners; 2-19 (11%, $0.96 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (both older winners)
DAM RACE RECORD:  Winner on turf (5-1-3-0, $37,560, unraced at two, 0-2 in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  This is first starter
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  CONSISTENCY (half-sister, Grade 3-placed, 8-4-2-0, $116,355, unraced at two, 2-3 in main track sprints); TREMENDOUS ONE (half-sister, stakes-placed on turf, 14-4-0-2, $122,517, 1-3 at two, won debut, unraced in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  5-43 (12%, $2.32 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner on synthetic, 2 other older winners on synthetic)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-20 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (0-4 at Keeneland); 2-27 (7%, $1.48 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (both older winners with Lasix, 1 for this owner, 1 on synthetic)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  August 9, August 15, August 21, August 27, September 2 works match barn's juvenile filly FLOWERING MESA (finished fifth in career debut over polytrack at Keeneland in $40,000 maiden claimer on October 21 with 42 Beyer); September 14 workout matches barn's juvenile DIXIE CAUSEWAY (finished third in career debut over polytrack at Arlington in $40,000 maiden claimer on September 17 with 53 Beyer); September 20 workout matches barn's three-year-old filly MORIGAMI (finished second on turf at Arlington in $25,000 maiden claimer on September 24 with 67 Beyer); October 5 workout matches barn's juvenile PARK RULES (61 Beyer on synthetic)

9.  BABY SISTER (Tale of the Cat - Twice Tempted, by Wild Again)
TRAINER:  David Carroll
JOCKEY:  Miguel Mena
DATE FOALED:   February 11, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   Withdrawn yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 2 sprint winner (9-5-1-2, $360,900, unraced at two, 1-3 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   175-948 (18%) with juvenile runners
NICKING INFORMATION:  WILD TALE (stakes-winning sprinter, 30-7-5-4, $333,030, 1-2 at two, 7-27 in main track sprints)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unplaced (1-0-0-0, $0, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  3 runners, 1 winner, 3 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners, 3 main track sprint runners, 1 main track sprint winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Third dam is AMELIA BEARHEART (stakes-placed at two, 13-1-2-3, $24,211, 1-12 at two, 1-9 in main track sprints)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  2-5 (40%, $34.87 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (2-3, $58.13 ROI at Keeneland)

10.  BETHAVEN (Victory Gallop - Watercolourtwo, by Secreto)
TRAINER:  Ian Wilkes
JOCKEY:  Frederic Lenclud
DATE FOALED:   April 14, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 route winner (17-9-5-1, $3,505,895, 3-5 at two, 2-3 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   19-205 (9%) with juvenile debut runners; 1-42 (2%, $0.22 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (older winner)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Placed sprinting (3-0-1-1, $5,950, unraced at two, 0-3 in main track sprints, cost $25,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  7 runners, 6 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners, 7 main track sprint runners, 4 main track sprint winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  RIVER TRAFFIC (half-brother, Grade 3 winner on turf at two); TOGHER (stakes-placed, 26-1-7-5, $103,773, 1-7 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  0 winners as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-26 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (0-12 at Keeneland); 3-29 (10%, $3.30 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner on synthetic with Lasix and front wraps)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  October 19 workout matches barn's juvenile filly BIRD CRY (31 Beyer on turf)

11.  DONNA GETYOURGUN (Stormy Atlantic - Cryptoqueen, by Cryptoclearance)
TRAINER:  Ian Wilkes
JOCKEY:  Julien Leparoux
DATE FOALED:   May 23, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   $72,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Summer, July 2008); $170,000 juvenile (Keeneland, April 2009)
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  CLEARLY A QUEEN (half-sister, multiple Grade 3 winner on turf, 28-9-4-6, $504,432, unraced at two, 0-2 in main track sprints)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple stakes-winning sprinter (15-6-2-1, $148,126, 0-1 at two, 6-16 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   172-1152 (15%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Placed sprinting at two, 3-0-1-0, $4,150, 0-2 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints, cost $22,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  9 runners, 7 winners, 5 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners, 9 main track sprint runners, 2 main track sprint winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  WILD ROYAL (half-sister, stakes-winner, 33-8-7-2, $115,871, unraced at two, 0-9 in main track sprints); REFORMER RALLY (half-brother, stakes-winner at two, 38-5-4-5, $243,768, 4-9 at two, 1-5 in main track sprints)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1=13 (8%, $0.92 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (0-7 at Keeneland)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  Worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction

12.  LADY SYMPHONY (Consolidator - Dancing Naturally, by Fred Astaire)
TRAINER:  Jose Fernandez
JOCKEY:  John McKee
DATE FOALED:   February 1, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   $85,000 weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $47,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  INDIAN WAR DANCE (half-brother, stakes-winner, 44-16-2-5, $385,994, 1-5 at two, 2-14 in main track sprints); BARE DANCER (half-sister, stakes-winning router, 16-2-2-2, $98,720, 1-5 at two, 0-4 in main track sprints)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner at two (10-3-1-1, $661,760, 2-7 at two, 1-6 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   4-40 (10%, $1.48 ROI) with juvenile debut runners in 2009 (first crop, 1 on synthetic at this meet)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Winner (22-4-4-2, $105,770, 0-1 at two, 3-18 in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  6 runners, 4 winners, 4 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners, 6 main track sprint runners, 3 main track sprint winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Third dam is NATURAL SOUND (multiple stakes-winner at two, 31-9-3-5, $129,820)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  1-13 (8%, $0.28 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (juvenile debut winner)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-4 (25%, $1.45 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (1-2, $2.90 ROI at Keeneland); 0-1 with all debut runners in 2009

Analysis: 
STARLITE STARBRITE worked "in hand, easily better than Entice," according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for October 21.  Entice is a winning three-year-old filly that owns a 69 Beyer top.  Six days earlier, the report noted that she worked "together with D'Tiger, and was the better of the two at the finish."  D'Tiger is an unraced son of D'Wildcat that cost $115,000 last year as a yearling.  On October 5, she gave a "useful move in company with Cya Later Bert, both were going easily."  Five-year-old Cya Later Bert finished eighth in a $40,000 claimer with a 73 Beyer here on october 18.  By the underrated debut stallion Mutakddim, Starlite Starbrite is a half-sister to a juvenile debut winner, and the trainer is clicking at 30% with his first-time starters in 2009.
DONNA GETYOURGUN looks like the filly to beat after earning a 73 Beyer Speed Figure in the slower division of maiden special weights for juvenile fillies at Arlington on September 12.  She adds Lasix and Leparoux, and shouldn't be too far away when they turn for home.  Note that said maiden race at Arlington hasn't produced much, however, and Donna Getyougun may be overbet just a bit.
QUEEN OF THE CREEK's turf pedigree may aid her as she makes her career debut over the synthetic surface.  It's quite possible that the sprint distance is too short for this daughter of Theatrical, but she shows solid workouts, and figures to offer value.
BABY SISTER goes out for barn that boasts fantastic numbers with second-time starters, and the Tale of the Cat filly showed good speed when bet down to favoritism for her career debut at Turfway.  The third-place finisher of that race returned to run second in a $50,000 maiden claimer here at Keeneland.  Expect Baby Sister to be on the pace once again.
CAT MAGIC raced evenly when well-bet for her debut at Turfway.  The runner-up in that race returned to finish third in a maiden special weight at Keeneland with a 68 Beyer.  Cat Magic can work out a nice pace-tracking trip under Leandro Goncalves, and should show improvement.  PIRATE PARTY reportedly couldn't finish with Pari during their October 5 workout.  Pari is a three-year-old filly that won an entry-level allowance on grass here on October 11 with an 82 Beyer.  The Keeneland Clocker was particularly impressed with the October 11 move where she "broke 3-4 lengths behind Dixie Causeway and Park Rules and was clearly better at the finish."  Dixie Causeway finished twelfth in a $50,000 maiden claimer here on October 15.  Park Rules earned a 61 Beyer in his lone start to date in a $25,000 maiden claimer at Arlington on September 10.  According to the Keeneland Clocker Report for October 18, Pirate Party gave a "good finish from the gate, last 3 furlongs in 36.0."  Watch the early tote action for more clues.  SHERYL'S MELODY exits a good race at Saratoga that produced next-out winners Devil May Care (Grade 1 Frizette with 89) and Katy Now (won maiden at Keeneland with 66 Beyer).  The inside post can be intimidating on a young horse. LA GRAN BAILADORA is by a promising first-crop sire that has struggled with debut runners.  She "easily pulled away from Vlad the Impaller in the stretch," according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for October 7.  Vlad the Impaller is an unraced juvenile that cost $2,000 as a yearling.  AREGULATIONHOTTIE gave a "very speedy effort, a shade better than Shawnee Moon, not much gallop-out," according to the report from October 21.  She may need a start.  BETHAVEN may appreciate more ground down the road.  KENNY LANE likely will benefit from the experience.  LADY SYMPHONY shows a big gap in the tab.

Selections:
1.  Starlite Starbrite  2.  Donna Getyourgun  3.  Queen of the Creek

The Play:
Starlite Starbrite to Win and Place at 5-1 odds or greater

***


Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):  31-6-15 (+ $3.20)