10/23/2008 12:00AM

Keeneland Babies for 10/24

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully add to the profits from "Spa Babies."

Thursday's results:
Race 1: Caffeine Free finished seventh
Race 3: Attractive Ride finished fourth

Friday, October 23, 2008

Race 4:
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
An intriguing, difficult race to handicap with several top pedigrees and barns represented. Let's go with a price play. PARADE CLOWN (15-1 morning line) is by the excellent debut sire Distorted Humor (40-218, 18% with juvenile firsters) out of a winning half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Twilight Road (58-12-13-3, $792,767) and stakes-winner Mr. Maccool (8-3-1-2, $182,710). The Distorted Humor - El Prado 'nick' has already produced Grade 1 turf winner Bit of Whimsy (10-4-2-0, $555,133) and recent stakes-winner Cocktail Attire (5-1-2-0, $61,800). Parade Clown worked a sub 1:00 five furlongs here on October 19, and deserves a shot at a nice price.
INFLIGHT, a $22,000 RNA as a yearling, sold for $115,000 in May after working a quarter mile in 21.40. He is bred both sides for speed, and trainer, Bret Calhoun, does excellent work with debut runners. The dam is kin to multiple stakes-winner Entepreneur (25-7-8-3, $441,214), and the bullet work from the gate nine days ago indicates he's ready.
SHANES GOLD, a half-brother to multiple stakes-winner (and juvenile debut winner) Golden Marlin (25-7-7-4, $389,667), is out of a half-sister to Remsen winner Silver of Silver. He's been working steadily since mid-July at Highpoint for his debut, and trainer John Good lives up to his name with first-time starters (5-24, 21%, $4.30 ROI over the past five years with juvenile debut runners). The inside post is somewhat of a concern.
TEVEZ THE TIGER is a first-time starter that has always sold well. He went for $165,000 as a yearling before moving up to $450,000 in February. He worked in 10 seconds flat prior to that juvenile sale, and the dam was a multiple stakes-winner (14-6-0-0, $69,420). FRIENDNHIGHPLACES is by the hot first-crop sire Chapel Royal (eight debut winners this year), and the dam has already thrown stakes-winner Magic Power (27-10-3-2, $121,430). Ronny Werner does well with firsters. SPECIAL HEART finished second in an Arlington maiden special weight that has already produced three next-out winners. He bled that day, and should move forward with the addition of Lasix. The $75,000 yearling is from the family of Grade 2 juvenile winner Twilight Time. WEBCAST just missed at Turfway after bombing in a tough maiden special weight at Saratoga. The son of stakes-winning router Dance the Slew (25-7-2-3, $204,970) may want a bit more ground. DONI and LASTOFTHSUMMERWINE are both debut runners from excellent first-out trainers. The former is a half-sister to Grade 3 sprint winner Frisco View out of a dam that won a stake at two in Europe. Lastofthsummerwine, a $42,000 yearling RNA, sold for $135,000 in June after working a furlong in ten seconds flat. The son of Sky Mesa is a half-brother to stakes-placed sprinter Yessiremychickadee (5-2-1-1, $64,950). OBLIGINGLY sold for $85,000 as a yearling, and then for $300,000 in February after working a furlong in 10 flat. He's a half-brother to stakes-placed turf runner Nootka Island (25-3-4-2, $136,143), and will go out for dynamite debut trainer Todd Pletcher. MUTASADDY has been working regularly since late June for Kiaran McLaughlin. The son of multiple stakes-winning router Setareh (17-4-6-2, $239,418) may want a bit more ground to work with. CHECKSANDBALANCES may need a run.

Selections:
1. Parade Clown
2. Inflight
3. Shanes Gold

The Play:
Parade Clown to Win and Place at 8-1 or greater

***

Race 7
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
PRAY FOR ACTION showed good speed and determination in his career debut over Arlington's polytrack, only losing by a neck to next-out Keeneland allowance winner Casey's On Call. He then forced the issue in a restricted stake at Monmouth before faltering in the final eighth of a mile. He should appreciate returning to a synthetic course, and can be a forward factor in this spot.
OYSTER CAT only finished three lengths behind Breeders' Cup Juvenile contender Midshipman in his career debut at Del Mar, then pressed the pace from a wide berth in his second start. The half-brother to multiple stakes-placed turf runner Pure Incentive (10-2-3-1, $112,534) has loads of grass pedigree on the bottom of his bloodlines, and that should translate well to this track. He's another that should prove a pace factor.
BATON ROUGE hasn't been out since his debut at Churchill Downs in April, but that key race was one of the fastest maiden heats of the year. The winner, Notonthesamepage, earned a 104 Beyer Speed Figure, and Baton Rouge seemed a bit green as he was late to change leads in the stretch. His is another grass pedigree that should thrive on polytrack.
SHARPSBURG SHUFFLE, a $45,000 RNA as a yearling, sold for $120,000 earlier this year after working two furlongs in 21.40. He shows good morning trials over this surface. SILVER CITY, a half-brother to Grade 2-placed sprinter Elope, and juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Invitation, was bet hard for her debut at Churchill, and finished evenly for third. The $700,000 yearling purchase has been away since June, and draws a tough inside post. MANITO is a half-brother to multiple Grade 3 sprint winner, and millionaire, Chindi. The works look solid leading up to his debut. BROTHER KEITH is the first runner out of a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Kumari Continent, and Grade 3 winner Passion. By the long-winded turf runner Johar, he may want more distance. PRINCE TETON didn't have the easiest of trips at Turfway, but that was a very slow race, and he'll face some promising juveniles today. SANGRE FRIO shows some solid works at Goldmark, but trainer Dallas Stewart usually gives his babies a race or two before they fire their best shot. ZIFZAF is kin to several blacktype earners including juvenile Group 1 turf winner Hayil. He's been in training since late June, and may do better with a bit more distance. WHAT ABOUT IT BRUD may be in a bit steep.

Selections:
1. Pray for Action
2. Oyster Cat
3. Baton Rouge

The Play:
Pray for Action to Win at 3-1 odds or greater

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):
41-7-15 (- $3.20)